The first trophy of the Italian football season is on the line on Wednesday when fierce rivals Inter and Milan face off for the Supercoppa Italiana at the King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh.
Scudetto holders Milan and last season's Coppa Italia winners Inter appear well out of the Serie A title race at the midway point this time around, trailing leaders Napoli by nine and 10 points respectively.
Inter are still in the mix for silverware elsewhere this campaign, though, as they have a Champions League last-16 tie with Porto on the horizon and are also through to the quarter-finals of the Coppa Italia.
As for Milan, they are also in the first knockout round of Europe's primary club competition – where Tottenham await over two legs – but they were eliminated from the Coppa Italia with a 1-0 defeat to Torino in extra time last week.
It is fair to say that Rossoneri head coach Stefano Pioli has a fair bit of money in the bank should this season end trophyless, having ended the club's 11-year wait for Scudetto success last season.
But defeat to neighbours Inter in Saudi Arabia, coupled with that big gap on Napoli, could lead to some questions being asked.
If that sounds extreme on the face of it, let us remember this is a club that got through seven managers in the seven years preceding Pioli's appointment.
Inzaghi has less goodwill to play with, and Italian outlet Gazzetta dello Sport reported in the build-up to the Supercoppa tie that the former striker has been told Wednesday's match must be used as a turning point in a below-par season.
The showdown between two of Italy's three most successful clubs has plenty riding on it, then, but what does recent history tell us about teams winning the Supercoppa and what it meant for the rest of their seasons?
Inzaghi to join elite list?
The Supercoppa has now been staged midway through the season in Saudi Arabia for three of the past five years (this is the final year of the arrangement), the exceptions being in 2020 and 2021 when it was held in Italy due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Since then, the reigning Serie A winners have prevailed against their opponents three times out of four. The anomaly in that sequence? A Lazio side managed by a certain Inzaghi that saw off Juventus 3-1.
Indeed, having also won the Supercoppa in 2019 and last year with Inter, Inzaghi could join legendary figures Fabio Capello and Marcelo Lippi as the most successful coaches in the competition's history.
Lazio also finished fourth in Serie A that season – the only time they have finished in the top four in the seven seasons either side – but they had entered the Supercoppa showdown with Juventus sitting one place higher.
From collecting 2.25 points per game across their 16 matches, Lazio's form dropped slightly to 1.91 per game in the final 22 games.
There are plenty of other factors to consider, of course, but the same was also true of Inter after winning this cup last season.
The Nerazzurri were top of the table on January 12 when beating Juventus 2-1 to lift their first piece of silverware under Inzaghi, averaging 2.45 points per game up until that point.
In the subsequent four months, that dipped to 1.94 points per game and they were pipped to the title by Milan, although they did at least win the Coppa Italia.
Familiar theme
Juve are another example of results dipping after winning the competition – as a direct consequence or otherwise – going from 2.79 points per game to 1.95 either side of defeating Milan in Jeddah.
However, given just how good they were in the first half of that season, they still retained top spot in Serie A.
Juventus in 2020-21 is the outlier in our sample as they improved on a return of 1.94 points per game on average to 2.14 either side of seeing off Napoli 2-0 on January 20, 2021.
The Bianconeri went from fifth to fourth and qualified for the Champions League, yet that was not enough to keep Andrea Pirlo in a job.
Effectively, then, teams tend to drop off after winning the Supercoppa, rather than using it as a platform to push on. And on more than one occasion, lifting the trophy has not been enough to keep a coach in place beyond that season.
So while Pioli and Inzaghi in particular will consider this an opportunity to potentially transform their respective sides' Serie A campaigns and reel in Napoli, the stats show that is highly unlikely to happen.
Unai Emery eases concerns over Leon Bailey's fitness after Arsenal victory
Aston Villa's head coach, Unai Emery, has moved to calm concerns over the fitness of Jamaican sensation Leon Bailey after the winger was substituted at halftime during their pivotal 1-0 victory over Arsenal at Villa Park.
Bailey, who provided the crucial assist for John McGinn's seventh-minute goal, raised eyebrows when he did not emerge from the tunnel for the second half.
Emery addressed the situation in the post-match press conference, providing insight into Bailey's condition. Despite the initial worry among Villa fans, Emery hinted that fatigue rather than injury might be the reason for the substitution.
"He was tired, completely tired! Hopefully, he's not injured, but I don't know exactly," Emery reassured, offering a glimmer of hope regarding Bailey's well-being.
Bailey's impactful performance against Arsenal came on the heels of his winning goal against Manchester City last Wednesday night. His ability to make a difference in crucial matches has quickly endeared him to Villa supporters.
However, the Jamaican international has battled injury concerns since joining Aston Villa from Bayer Leverkusen in the summer of 2021. Despite these challenges, Bailey has remarkably missed just one league match throughout the season, sitting out the 6-1 win over Brighton and Hove Albion back in September.
The timing of Bailey's potential setback raises questions about his availability for the upcoming Europa Conference League clash against Zrinjski on Thursday night.
The hope is that Bailey's early substitution against Arsenal was a precautionary measure to manage fatigue rather than a recurrence of his injury struggles. As Villa pursues success on multiple fronts, including European competition, the fitness of key players like Leon Bailey remains a critical factor in their aspirations for a successful campaign.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic returns to AC Milan as senior adviser to ownership group
Zlatan Ibrahimovic has taken a new role with RedBird Capital Partners as a senior adviser to AC Milan’s ownership and management.
The 42-year-old retired from football following Milan’s final game of the last Serie A season, but has returned to the club in his first job since his playing days as an adviser to the management and owners.
Ibrahimovic will serve as a senior adviser to the ownership, which is led by RedBird and longstanding partners the New York Yankees.
The former Sweden striker will play a key role with the club, dealing with their sporting and business operations to help the club build on the success since Redbird took ownership the club.
Ibrahimovic will work with the playing side, which includes development and high-performance training, while having a say in Milan’s commercial business and supporting special projects, including the building and development of the club’s new stadium.
The American investment firm, which also has stakes in Liverpool’s owner Fenway Sports Group, took over the Italian club in 2021 and helped them win the Serie A title in 2021-22 while taking the club back into the Champions League.
Ibrahimovic will work alongside RedBird founder Gerry Cardinale as well as first-team coach Stefano Pioli and chief executive Giorgio Furlani.
Ibrahimovic told the club website: “I am extremely grateful to be joining both RedBird and AC Milan in these important and influential roles.
“RedBird has partnered with some of the greatest athletes, teams and business figures in the world to create businesses with meaning and impact. I look forward to contributing to their investing activities across their sports, media and entertainment properties.
“My love for the Rossoneri will never die, and the opportunity to be a part of its future in a meaningful way is something I could only have dreamed of.
“I have greatly admired the commitment, passion and hard work RedBird and Senior Management have demonstrated since acquiring the club. This is not a decision that I take lightly – it is one which is very important and personal to me and my family.
“I’ve thought long and hard about the first steps in my post-playing career, and I couldn’t be more thrilled to start that journey as a member of RedBird and AC Milan. For me and my family, this is truly a homecoming with the cherished club where I ended my playing career and am now starting my next chapter.”
Where Aston Villa’s winning home run ranks in Premier League history
Aston Villa’s stunning home form stretched to a club-record 15 games as Saturday’s success against Arsenal took them into elite Premier League company.
Here, the PA news agency takes a look at fortress Villa Park.
Record run
Going into their midweek game against Manchester City, Villa’s run of 13 home league wins dating back to last season was already their longest of the Premier League era – but with the champions and their main challengers coming to Birmingham back-to-back, the fun looked set to end.
Instead, winners from Leon Bailey and John McGinn saw Villa kick on to the longest run in their history as their resurgence under manager Unai Emery gathers pace.
Crystal Palace, Brighton and Fulham, twice apiece, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Tottenham, Everton, West Ham and Luton are their other victims.
They have scored 39 goals – conceding only seven, and never more than one in a game. Ollie Watkins is their top scorer in that time with nine goals, one ahead of Douglas Luiz.
Elite company
Villa’s streak ranks among the five longest home winning runs in the Premier League era, with Emery matching Pep Guardiola’s recently concluded streak of 15 with City – who won 10 straight to end last season and their first five this term before draws with Liverpool and Tottenham.
Next in Villa’s sights is Manchester United’s 19 successive home wins between October 2010 and October 2011 – a far cry from United’s current home form.
Sir Alex Ferguson’s side had the chance to stretch their run to 20 and a full year with maximum points at Old Trafford, only for the run to end in astonishing style as Mario Balotelli inspired City to a 6-1 derby romp.
City hit 20 earlier in their current era of dominance, Roberto Mancini’s side with a perfect Etihad Stadium record from March 2011 to March 2012 when Sunderland, vanquished 5-0 earlier in the sequence, drew 3-3 – the only two points dropped on home soil that season by Mancini’s title-winners.
The record belongs to Liverpool, who won their final seven home games of 2018-19 as they pushed champions City all the way and then their first 17 of their title-winning 2019-20 season – again, the 1-1 draw with Burnley that ended the run marked their only dropped points at home.
They went on to win their next eight and went 68 league games, and over three-and-a-half years, unbeaten at Anfield before remarkably then losing six in a row – a warning to Villa regarding how suddenly things can change.
Good omens
Villa top this season’s home league table with eight wins from eight. Liverpool also have a perfect record but from seven games, while Newcastle have won seven out of eight.
They are third outright with 35 points, only the fifth time in their history they have had such an impressive record after 16 games.
The other occasions when, converting to three points for a win, they would have been on 35 or more are their 19th-century title-winning seasons of 1898-99 and 1899-1900, a runner-up finish in 1910-11 and their most recent title in 1980-81.
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