Salzburg need Austrian first as Bellingham looks to match Mbappe, Haaland – Champions League in Opta Numbers

By Sports Desk November 02, 2022

Salzburg will have to do what no other Austrian side has done before at Milan to qualify for the Champions League knockout stages, while Jude Bellingham has his eyes on an achievement managed by only two players previously.

The Rossoneri need only a point from the game at San Siro and the historical facts suggest they will achieve their aim to make it out of Group E.

For Bellingham, he can put his name in the record books alongside former team-mate Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe by scoring for Borussia Dortmund at Copenhagen.

There is plenty to play for as the Champions League group stage wraps up on Wednesday, and Stats Perform has trawled through the data to shine a light on the most interesting angles.

Milan v Salzburg

With a win, Salzburg will advance to the knockout stages for the second consecutive season after never making it out of the group stage previously.

They will need to defy the odds on their trip to Milan, where the Italian side are undefeated in home fixtures against Austrian opponents in the competition (W4 D1), while averaging 3.8 goals per game.

Salzburg have never beaten Milan in their three previous Champions League meetings, but after losing the first two, they collected their first point with a 1-1 draw in this campaign's reverse fixture.

While Olivier Giroud became the oldest player in Champions League history to reach 20 goals (36 years old) during Milan's win at Dinamo Zagreb last time out, Salzburg boast the youngest starting XI in the competition with an average age of 22 years and 279 days.

Shakhtar Donetsk v RB Leipzig

Shakhtar have only won one game in the group stage, but sit three points behind second-placed. A win would see them through to the knockout stages for the third time in the past four seasons.

The reverse-fixture was a memorable one for Shakhtar and exciting young winger Mykhailo Mudryk, who showed why he is so in-demand with a goal and two assists in a 4-1 away win.

Unfortunately for the Ukrainian side, that was their only victory from their past 12 Champions League matches (D6 L5).

Meanwhile, Leipzig have found some form in the competition, with back-to-back victories against Celtic before making it three wins in a row when they beat Real Madrid 3-2.

Manchester City v Sevilla

City are eyeing an undefeated group stage when they host Sevilla, having only conceded one goal in total from their five games until this point.

English sides have given Sevilla trouble for years now, with their last Champions League win over a Premier League team coming back in 2007 against Arsenal. 

If Jorge Sampaoli's side are to stand any chance of a shock win, they will need to pay special attention to Jack Grealish, who has impressed in the group stage with 10 chances created from open play, the most in Pep Guardiola's squad.

Maccabi Haifa v Benfica

If Juventus can salvage even a draw in their clash with Paris Saint-Germain, then Benfica will be able to win Group H by defeating Maccabi Haifa.

It has been a special run of form for Benfica, who for the first time since 1990 have gone six Champions League games without a loss (W3 D3).

Maccabi will have their backs against the wall, as only Malmo have a worse winning percentage (17 per cent) than their 24 per cent among teams to have played at least 15 Champions League games.

Also working in Benfica's favour is manager Roger Schmidt's record in the competition. Between his time with Bayer Leverkusen (2014-2017) and Benfica in this campaign, his run of 13 games unbeaten is the most by any active manager qualified for this season's Champions League.

Other fixtures:

Juventus v Paris Saint-Germain

- Juventus are looking to avoid becoming the second Italian side to ever lose five matches in a Champions League group stage, after Roma in 2004-05.

- Paris Saint-Germain's Kylian Mbappe has six goals in the group stage. With one more he can tie Christopher Nkunku (last season) for the most by a French player in a single group stage, while with two more he can tie Zlatan Ibrahimovic's club-record of eight in 2013-14.

Copenhagen v Borussia Dortmund

60  - Despite Copenhagen still being without a win in Group G, they have kept a clean sheet in 60 per cent (nine-of-15) of their Champions League home games – the best ratio of any team with at least 10 appearances.

- With a goal, Bellingham can become just the third teenager to ever score in all three away games in a Champions League group stage, following Mbappe (2017-18) and Haaland (2019-20).

Chelsea v Dinamo Zagreb

10  - Chelsea are undefeated in their past 10 group stage games in the Champions League dating back to September 2019 (W6 D4). Over that period, they are averaging 2.3 goals per game.

10  - Along with City's Grealish, Chelsea's Mason Mount is the only other Premier League player from this Champions League campaign to tally at least 10 shots and 10 chances created.

Real Madrid v Celtic

20  - Since the beginning of last season's Champions League, no player has been involved in more open-play sequences that have resulted in a goal than Real Madrid's Vinicius Junior (20).

14  - Celtic's Matt O'Riley has attempted the most shots in the Champions League this season without scoring, with no goals from his 14 shots.

Related items

  • Guardiola not concerned despite Manchester City's poor defensive record Guardiola not concerned despite Manchester City's poor defensive record

    Pep Guardiola is not worried about Manchester City's defending despite the reigning champions failing to keep a clean sheet in their last six Premier League matches.

    City went 1-0 down against Fulham before fighting back to win 3-2 on Saturday. Their opponents also amassed an expected goals (xG) total of 2.4 compared to City's 1.55.

    It follows a trend of unusually sloppy defensive displays from the champions, who have conceded eight goals in their last six league matches. They also had to come from behind against Brentford in September.

    Guardiola, however, is not overly worried.

    "Sometimes I give credit. The first goal – why don't we give credit to them rather than [be critical] defensively? There are actions we can defend better but step by step we will improve," he said, via the Guardian.

    "I would say except [Yoane] Wissa against Brentford, in the other ones we were playing good. It's not nice to come back from 0-1 but we created chances today to go 1-0 and 2-0."

    City allowed Fulham five big chances compared to their one, with the London side taking 11 shots, nine of those from inside the box.

    Comparatively, City had 20 shots with only half of those coming from inside the box. However, two of the visitors’ goals came from outside the area with Jeremy Doku and Mateo Kovacic both firing in from distance. 

    "I'm very happy he scored two goals, he's not a guy to score [usually] those goals," Guardiola said of Kovacic, who is one of the midfielders the City boss expects to fill in for the injured Rodri this season.

    “We started really well with two chances in two minutes and they switched immediately to five at the back. When they do that, we have one man free on the 18-yard box and that is Kovacic.

    "The two goals were because they couldn't defend that. We have to exploit that more against teams that don’t play five at the back – now opponents know that they can’t leave him [Kovacic] alone, otherwise he will score a goal."

  • New York City FC v Nashville SC: 'Fourth place is everything', claims Cushing New York City FC v Nashville SC: 'Fourth place is everything', claims Cushing

    Nick Cushing has insisted New York City FC's focus must be on rounding off the regular-season strongly as he eyes a fourth-place finish in the Eastern Conference.

    His side sit fifth, two points behind current fourth-placed Orlando City after a 3-2 home victory over third-placed FC Cincinnati.

    They have two games remaining before the postseason, which they have already secured their place in, but they also have the chance to reach 50 points for the first time since 2022.

    With Orlando facing a tough opponent in Cincinnati this weekend, Cushing remains determined to direct his team's focus on their upcoming match.

    "The whole aim of not having a mental slip up [against Nashville] is to focus on fourth place," he told the press.

    "Fourth place is everything to us. We could be playing top of the league. We could be playing the team bottom of the league.

    "Our mentality, our focus, has to be on performing, and on getting intensity into the game and doing the things that have helped us win football games lately because if we continue to win and somebody around us slips up, that fourth place is open for us."

    Their visiting opponents, Nashville SC, find themselves in a different predicament as they sit outside of the playoff spots in 13th place.

    "I think Nashville are a really difficult team to play against. I think under their previous coach [they were] direct, and incredible on set plays,” added Cushing.

    "Hany Muktar is very dangerous. Sam Surridge is a top player. They’ve got good players, and you have to see past results because, with the new coach, they now play a little bit more."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    New York City – Alonso Martinez

    Martinez is the joint-ninth top scorer in the MLS this season with a club-leading 15 goals in 24 appearances so far.

    NYCFC have not failed to score in their last five matches, and Martinez will be key to them keeping this streak in the hope of a win against Nashville.

    Nashville – Hany Mukhtar

    Mukhtar had a goal and an assist in Nashville's loss to D.C. United on Wednesday, his 30th career MLS match with multiple goal contributions.

    Only Luciano Acosta and Daniel Gazdag have 20 such matches since Mukhtar debuted in MLS in 2020.

    MATCH PREDICTION: NEW YORK CITY WIN

    The hosts are in hot form. They have won consecutive matches after recording just one win in their previous 14 in all competitions (D9 L4).

    NYCFC have scored eight times in the two matches, the first time the club has scored eight goals in a two-match span since April-May 2022.

    Nashville, on the other hand, have lost six of their last seven regular-season away matches dating back to the beginning of July. They have scored just four goals over those seven matches and have only scored 10 times on the road in 2024, the fewest in MLS this season.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    New York City – 55.6%

    Draw – 22.9%

    Nashville – 21.5%

  • Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal: Valverde and Vinicius stunners down high-flying visitors Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal: Valverde and Vinicius stunners down high-flying visitors

    Real Madrid went level on points with rivals Barcelona at the LaLiga summit following their 2-0 triumph over high-flying Villarreal on Saturday.

    The hosts opened the scoring in stunning fashion when Luka Modric's short corner was dummied by Jude Bellingham for Federico Valverde, with the Uruguayan taking aim from distance and finding the bottom corner with the aid of a deflection. 

    But Villarreal, who had won back-to-back league games heading into the encounter at the Bernabeu, responded almost immediately when Nicolas Pepe's header rattled the crossbar before Thierno Barry nodded over. 

    Los Blancos had further chances to increase their lead, but Antonio Rudiger sent an effort over the bar before Bellingham's long-range effort sailed wide of the post.

    But the victory was sealed 17 minutes from time with another sensational strike, this time Vinicius Junior tried his luck from long-range and curled a superb strike beyond the grasp of Diego Conde after being found by Valverde. 

    The result, however, was overshadowed by a nasty injury in second-half stoppage time to Dani Carvajal, with the Spaniard leaving the pitch on a stretcher and in tears after a collision with Yeremy Pino. 

    Data Debrief: Wonder goals save Los Blancos

    Madrid's two strikes against Villarreal both came from outside the box, as many as they had scored in their previous 39 goals in LaLiga. 

    But Carlo Ancelotti's side were far from their very best at the Bernabeu. They managed to muster an expected goals (xG) total of just 0.47 compared to Villarreal's 0.62, with only two of Los Blancos' 11 shots on target. 

    Valverde, however, impressed for Madrid, creating the joint-most chances alongside Modric (three), while also completing more accurate passes (77) than any other player on the pitch. 

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