EPL

The Numbers Game: Salah and Liverpool aim to pile more misery on Leeds boss Marsch

By Sports Desk October 28, 2022

Liverpool fans will say their team is like a box of chocolates at the moment in that you never know what you're going to get, and also they can be hazardous to your health.

A wobbly start to the campaign looked to have got back on track after wins against Manchester City and West Ham, only for an insipid defeat at Nottingham Forest last week to send Jurgen Klopp's men back into crisis.

A 3-0 win at Ajax on Wednesday to secure their place in the last 16 of the Champions League should boost confidence again, but it is still anyone's guess as to which version of the Reds will turn up when they host Leeds United on Saturday.

Jesse Marsch heads to Anfield under serious pressure himself, with Leeds having not won in eight Premier League games (D2, L6) since beating Chelsea 3-0 at Elland Road in August.

Stats Perform has taken a look behind the numbers heading into this clash to try and get to the bottom of what can be expected.

Home comforts can calm Reds nerves

They may have not had the best start to the campaign domestically, having not won any of their five Premier League away games (D2 L3), but Liverpool remain a force to be reckoned with at Anfield.

Klopp's side are unbeaten 29 league home games (W22 D7), scoring 73 goals and conceding just 16 in that run.

It has not all been plain sailing, having fallen behind in five of their previous six at Anfield prior to back-to-back 1-0 wins against City and West Ham, but more often than not they get the job done.

Virgil van Dijk is still yet to suffer a Premier League defeat in his home stadium since his move from Southampton in January 2018 (70 games – W59 D11).

You've lost that winning feeling

When Leeds were celebrating a well-earned victory against Chelsea on August 21, few would have thought they would not have experienced another by late October.

As mentioned, the Whites are winless in their last eight league games, which is the longest current run of any team in the Premier League.

Leeds have also lost each of their past four away games, last losing five in a row on the road in the top flight between January and March 2003 – the fifth game of which was at Liverpool, where they were beaten 3-1.

They will also be missing several players through injury, with Rodrigo Moreno's likely absence a blow as the Spaniard has scored five goals in 10 Premier League games this season, just one fewer than he netted in 31 appearances last season, and just two less than he managed in his best scoring season in the competition in 2020-21 (seven in 26 games).

Mo Salah, fewer problems

Mohamed Salah has been the subject of much debate this season, seemingly not hitting his usual heights.

Last season's joint-top scorer in the Premier League seemingly enjoys facing Leeds, though, having been involved in six goals in two home appearances against them (five goals, one assist).

Salah has 10 goals in 17 games in all competitions, and is coming off another fine finish to open the scoring in Liverpool's victory in Amsterdam on Wednesday.

The Egypt forward has also created more chances from open play than any other player in the Premier League this season (28). He is creating 2.6 chances per 90 minutes on average this season, his best rate in a single campaign in the competition.

No more bottom feeding

While they have dropped some sloppy points this season, Liverpool could at least take some comfort in the fact their only Premier League defeats had been against fellow big fish Manchester United and Arsenal.

That was until last week when they handed three points to bottom club Forest, and they will be looking to avoid a similar story this time around.

Liverpool have not lost consecutive Premier League games against sides in the relegation zone since March 2012, when a defeat at QPR was followed by a home loss to Wigan Athletic.

They have already lost more league games this season (three) than they did in the whole of 2021-22 (two), while their 16 points from 11 games is their worst return at this stage of a campaign since 2014-15 (14).

Leeds might smell blood, or arguably more likely, face the wrath of a wounded beast.

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    Khadija Shaw opened the scoring in the 31st minute before Ellen Wangerheim restored parity shortly after the interval with a finish from close range. 

    But Shaw continued her fine start to the campaign, scoring the winner to become City's all-time top scorer in the competition, surpassing Georgia Stanway and Janine Beckie (both six). 

    The result saw City make it to the last eight of the competition for the first time since 2021, though the encounter was far from comfortable at the Tele2 Arena on Thursday. 

    Hammarby ended the contest with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.15 compared to the visitors' 1.07, despite both sides having 14 shots throughout the match. 

    However, City maintained their unbeaten record against Swedish sides in the competitor (W6), and Taylor was proud of his side's "gritty" display in Stockholm. 

    “I’m really pleased. It was about qualification for us tonight," Taylor said. 

    "There were a couple of ways we could do it. Obviously, we knew a point was enough, but I don’t think the players were thinking that way.

    “It was a really gritty performance on a really difficult on this pitch. It probably doesn’t look like that for the viewers at home watching it.

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    “I felt there were some areas we could control the play better. I have to give credit to Hammarby, they were really aggressive.

    "The referee was on our side a little bit in the first half and maybe not in the second.

    “I’m really pleased and proud of the players, they really dug in tonight. You come away from a hostile environment with a win.”

  • McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United

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    "It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."

    Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.

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    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

    Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.

    That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).

    Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho

    Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).

    The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).

    MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN

    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

    The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.

    United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.

    The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.

    However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Ipswich Town - 22.2%

    Draw - 23%

    Manchester United - 54.8%

  • Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills

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    The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.

    The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.

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    Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.

    "Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'. 

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    Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.

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    "Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences. 

    "You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."

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