EPL

The Numbers Game: Salah and Liverpool aim to pile more misery on Leeds boss Marsch

By Sports Desk October 28, 2022

Liverpool fans will say their team is like a box of chocolates at the moment in that you never know what you're going to get, and also they can be hazardous to your health.

A wobbly start to the campaign looked to have got back on track after wins against Manchester City and West Ham, only for an insipid defeat at Nottingham Forest last week to send Jurgen Klopp's men back into crisis.

A 3-0 win at Ajax on Wednesday to secure their place in the last 16 of the Champions League should boost confidence again, but it is still anyone's guess as to which version of the Reds will turn up when they host Leeds United on Saturday.

Jesse Marsch heads to Anfield under serious pressure himself, with Leeds having not won in eight Premier League games (D2, L6) since beating Chelsea 3-0 at Elland Road in August.

Stats Perform has taken a look behind the numbers heading into this clash to try and get to the bottom of what can be expected.

Home comforts can calm Reds nerves

They may have not had the best start to the campaign domestically, having not won any of their five Premier League away games (D2 L3), but Liverpool remain a force to be reckoned with at Anfield.

Klopp's side are unbeaten 29 league home games (W22 D7), scoring 73 goals and conceding just 16 in that run.

It has not all been plain sailing, having fallen behind in five of their previous six at Anfield prior to back-to-back 1-0 wins against City and West Ham, but more often than not they get the job done.

Virgil van Dijk is still yet to suffer a Premier League defeat in his home stadium since his move from Southampton in January 2018 (70 games – W59 D11).

You've lost that winning feeling

When Leeds were celebrating a well-earned victory against Chelsea on August 21, few would have thought they would not have experienced another by late October.

As mentioned, the Whites are winless in their last eight league games, which is the longest current run of any team in the Premier League.

Leeds have also lost each of their past four away games, last losing five in a row on the road in the top flight between January and March 2003 – the fifth game of which was at Liverpool, where they were beaten 3-1.

They will also be missing several players through injury, with Rodrigo Moreno's likely absence a blow as the Spaniard has scored five goals in 10 Premier League games this season, just one fewer than he netted in 31 appearances last season, and just two less than he managed in his best scoring season in the competition in 2020-21 (seven in 26 games).

Mo Salah, fewer problems

Mohamed Salah has been the subject of much debate this season, seemingly not hitting his usual heights.

Last season's joint-top scorer in the Premier League seemingly enjoys facing Leeds, though, having been involved in six goals in two home appearances against them (five goals, one assist).

Salah has 10 goals in 17 games in all competitions, and is coming off another fine finish to open the scoring in Liverpool's victory in Amsterdam on Wednesday.

The Egypt forward has also created more chances from open play than any other player in the Premier League this season (28). He is creating 2.6 chances per 90 minutes on average this season, his best rate in a single campaign in the competition.

No more bottom feeding

While they have dropped some sloppy points this season, Liverpool could at least take some comfort in the fact their only Premier League defeats had been against fellow big fish Manchester United and Arsenal.

That was until last week when they handed three points to bottom club Forest, and they will be looking to avoid a similar story this time around.

Liverpool have not lost consecutive Premier League games against sides in the relegation zone since March 2012, when a defeat at QPR was followed by a home loss to Wigan Athletic.

They have already lost more league games this season (three) than they did in the whole of 2021-22 (two), while their 16 points from 11 games is their worst return at this stage of a campaign since 2014-15 (14).

Leeds might smell blood, or arguably more likely, face the wrath of a wounded beast.

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    Ronald Koeman believed his Netherlands side fell short in "all facets of football" after they slumped to a 1-0 defeat to Germany in the Nations League on Monday.

    Jamie Leweling netted the only goal of the encounter at the Allianz Arena, marking his senior international debut in style to put his nation on the brink of qualification. 

    The Netherlands struggled during the contest, ending the game with an expected goals (xG) total of just 0.13, with Donyell Malen's 89th minute effort their only attempt on target.

    Koeman's side also managed just eight touches in the opposition box compared to Germany's 26, despite edging the possession at the full-time whistle. 

    "If you go back too far, you bring that on yourself," Koeman said.

    "We came up short on all sides, perhaps in all facets of football. We did things differently at half-time and then we got a bit more rest. But they were much better today.

    "I am not satisfied by our performance. The Germans were the better, faster and physically stronger. They created more chances.

    "We lost too many balls in the midfield. We went too far back. That was not the plan. The plan was to put pressure forward on the right side. But it did not happen."

    The result leaves the Netherlands in second in Group A3, level on points with Hungary after Dominik Szoboszlai's double handed them a 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

    Stand-in captain Stefan de Vrij echoed Koeman's thoughts after the encounter, saying his side deserved to lose against Germany.

    "It seems clear to me that it was a deserved defeat," said De Vrij.

    "The first half was very mediocre. We were very sloppy and gave away a number of balls just like that, which allowed them to become dangerous.

    "In the second half it was a bit better, but it's hard to create chances."

    The Lazio defender took the armband in place of Virgil van Dijk, who was suspended following his red card against Hungary.

    Though the Netherlands did not do enough in attack, De Vrij said that Van Dijk's absence from the team had an impact. 

    "Yes, of course you miss him. He's a very important player and he's our captain. And he's a great defender, so it makes sense that he's missed," De Vrij concluded.

  • Bellamy wants more from Wales after extending unbeaten start Bellamy wants more from Wales after extending unbeaten start

    Craig Bellamy insists there is still room for improvement for Wales after seeing off Montenegro 1-0 to make it four games without defeat.

    Harry Wilson's 36th-minute penalty earned Wales all three points in Monday's Nations League Group B4 clash at Cardiff City Stadium.

    Bellamy, who succeeded Rob Page in July, is the first Wales head coach to avoid defeat in his first four games in charge of the senior men's side.

    As well as beating Montenegro home and away, Wales have also drawn 0-0 at home to Turkiye and 2-2 in Iceland.

    Reflecting on his side's latest win, Bellamy told S4C: "I was impressed by us being able to control the tempo of the second half, but we still need improvement on it.

    "You will get breaks and it feels like you can score because they have players forward, but it's also dangerous then for the counter.

    "That transitional game becomes a little complicated, whereas in the first half they sat a lot deeper which allows us to really control the tempo of the game. Of course at the moment that really suits us.

    "But we have got to stay calm, in transition but even when we have knockdowns and balls in and around.

    "You secure the ball and pass to your team-mates and there are still bits for improvement we need, but we were better than last time."

    Match-winner Wilson has now been directly involved in nine goals in his past 11 appearances for Wales, as many as in his previous 41 matches.

    The Fulham forward kept his place in a much-changed Wales side on the back of Friday's draw in Iceland, which showed seven alterations in all.

    Wilson was the star performer in a game Wales dominated for large parts, with Montenegro failing to register a single shot on target.

    It means the Dragons have avoided facing an effort on target in two of their past seven matches across all competitions, matching the tally from their previous 34 games.

    For all Wales' dominance, though, Montenegro substitute Andrija Radulovic fired a 20-yard drive against the crossbar.

    "There were a lot of changes, and a lot of players who all definitely deserved the opportunity to play as well," Bellamy added. "The Nations League is so good and so competitive."

    Wales trail leaders Turkiye by two points heading into next month's contest in Kayseri, before the Dragons round off their Nations League campaign at home to Iceland.

    Montenegro, bottom of the table without a point and on a record run of six losses in a row, host Iceland and Turkiye in their final two matches.

  • Germany 1-0 Netherlands: Leweling marks senior debut with winning goal Germany 1-0 Netherlands: Leweling marks senior debut with winning goal

    Jamie Leweling netted the winner on his senior international debut as Germany beat the Netherlands 1-0 in Monday's Nations League clash at the Allianz Arena.

    The Stuttgart forward, in for the injured Deniz Undav, had a goal within two minutes of his first cap ruled out after a VAR check showed Serge Gnabry was offside in the build-up.

    However, there was no denying Leweling in the 64th minute as the 23-year-old thumped a loose ball inside the box into the bottom corner past Bart Verbruggen to give the hosts a deserved lead in Munich.

    Verbruggen had undoubtedly been the busier of the two goalkeepers up until that point, making four saves prior to the breakthrough from Leweling, who also had a goal-bound shot blocked near the line by Stefan de Vrij.

    The Netherlands twice went close to equalising in the final 15 minutes, but Oliver Baumann got a faint touch to a long-range Xavi Simons drive to help it onto the crossbar and then superbly helped Donyell Malen's powerful effort wide.

    The win moves Germany to 10 points from their first four Group A3 matches, five points clear of the Netherlands and Hungary - 2-0 winners away at Bosnia-Herzegovina - who each have five points with two games remaining.

    Data Debrief: Debutants decide the game

    Leweling was a threat throughout on his debut as he scored one, had another disallowed and had an effort blocked off the line, generating an expected goals (xG) value of 0.35 - the highest of any player on the field.

    Just as key to the victory was fellow Germany debutant Baumann, who produced two big saves in the second half. 

    Aged 34 years and 131 days, he became the second-oldest Germany debutant (after Matthias Mauritz) in the post-war era and the oldest goalkeeper to make his debut in the country's history.

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