EPL

Casemiro rescues wasteful Man Utd but lack of ruthlessness signals Ronaldo lifeline

By Sports Desk October 22, 2022

Manchester United was said to be a toxic place for much of last season, with reports of a fractured dressing room, players leaking information to the press and results generally poor.

With that in mind, it's already clear to see the influence Erik ten Hag has had since taking over in pre-season, and Saturday's ultimately dramatic 1-1 draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge showcased that in a variety of ways.

But chief among them was the demonstrably improved spirit that has taken over United. While there have been signs of it throughout the early months of the season, with the atmosphere and relationship between players on the pitch clearly far better, Casemiro's equaliser showed it in terms we all understand: a crucial late Manchester United goal.

However, many will argue they shouldn't have even found themselves in such a position in the first place, with United struggling to make the most of their earlier dominance.

Of course, that highlighted the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo, which was confirmed as early as Thursday, with Ten Hag excluding him from the squad as a consequence of refusing to come on against Tottenham and then walking down the tunnel before kick-off.

As much as it was just the latest example of Ronaldo's relationship with the club souring, Ten Hag's decisiveness in his punishment was another show of strong leadership and principles.

Some United fans will say it was an easy decision to make, simply for the fact Ronaldo's routinely resembled a square peg in a round hole this season. Whether it's down to the system he's playing in, his own professionalism or fitness, we can only speculate, but it's difficult to say they've missed him when he's not played.

In fact, prior to Saturday, United had a 75 per cent win rate without Ronaldo starting (eight matches) this season compared to 50 per cent (six matches) with him in the line-up. Similarly, they average more goals (1.9, up from 1.0) without him in the starting XI even though their shots per game count is higher when he features from the beginning (19.2, compared to 14.6).

What makes that even more damning is four of Ronaldo's starts have been in the Europa League against the likes of Omonia Nicosia and Sheriff. Essentially, United register more shots but are less effective despite poorer opposition, which backs up concerns relating to his lack of cohesion with the rest of the team.

Watching United dominate much of the first half at Stamford Bridge, Ronaldo would've been far from the minds of most supporters initially.

Ten Hag's men were exceptional at times in the opening period, with the composure brought by Casemiro and Christian Eriksen in midfield helping United regularly slice through the Chelsea lines. Jorginho and Ruben Loftus-Cheek were constantly overrun.

It got to the point where Graham Potter was forced into an early switch. With roughly 10 minutes still left of the first half, Marc Cucurella was withdrawn for Mateo Kovacic as Chelsea sought to even up the midfield battle.

The change worked to an extent, with Chelsea almost instantly a greater attacking threat, though it was still United creating the genuine chances: Marcus Rashford was denied by Kepa Arrizabalaga – having also been thwarted in an earlier one-on-one – and Antony sliced a gilt-edged opportunity wide on the stroke of half-time.

Despite the obvious concerns around his wider impact on the team, Ronaldo's slim chance of having an influence on United again this season was probably best summed up by Rashford's opportunities, especially the first.

Who's to say if Ronaldo would have converted past Kepa, but undoubtedly it was an opening he'd have expected himself to take.

A lack of ruthlessness in front of goal has been a recurring theme through Rashford's United career, and with the oft-crocked Anthony Martial seemingly unable to be relied upon, it's easy to see Ronaldo still getting picked.

Chances largely dried up after the interval at Stamford Bridge, particularly for United, with Ten Hag's introduction of Fred in an attempt to restore midfield superiority leading to a much cagier affair.

Chelsea did improve – they probably couldn't have been more ineffective, to be fair – and gave the Red Devils' defence a bit more to do, with their best opening seeing Trevoh Chalobah head against the crossbar late on.

Then a moment of madness from Scott McTominay seemingly gifted Chelsea the win. He pulled Armando Broja to the ground at a corner and a penalty was unsurprisingly awarded, with Jorginho – as he usually does – coolly sweeping home from the spot.

That looked decisive, yet United salvaged a point right at the death, Casemiro's brilliant header just about crossing the line as Kepa's fingertips failed to keep it out.

But even though United rescued the point, there was still a sense of them ruing what might have been when dominant in the first half.

That lack of ruthlessness could be Ronaldo's lifeline.

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    What looked to be a frustrating encounter was turned around by Slegers' substitutions, and after missing a glorious chance, Hurtig was eventually the difference at the Emirates.

    Arsenal created 3.69 expected goals (xG) from their nine shots, getting three on target, compared to just 0.5 for Juventus, who tested Daphne van Domselaar the same amount of times.

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    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Southampton – Mateus Fernandes

    Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.

    In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.

    Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

    Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.

    He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

    MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN

    Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).

    The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.

    Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.

    This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.

    However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.

    But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Southampton – 9.7%

    Draw – 12.6%

    Liverpool – 77.7%

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