Roberto Firmino was not supposed to be Liverpool's go-to man this season. If widespread reports were anything to go by, Firmino himself did not even envisage himself being at Anfield this campaign.
And yet here we are, midway through October, and no Liverpool player – not even the £350,000-a-week Mohamed Salah, despite his record-breaking six-minute hat-trick against Rangers – has played a part in more goals in all competitions this season than Firmino's eight.
Far from being the odd man out following the arrivals of Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez this year, Firmino has regularly stepped up for the Reds this season and is surely in contention to start Sunday's Premier League showdown against Manchester City.
Liverpool quite simply have to win at Anfield, where Firmino will come face-to-face with Europe's hottest striker in Erling Haaland, a player boasting 20 goals – six more than anyone else in Europe's top-five leagues – from his 13 appearances for City and feeling refreshed after a midweek rest.
Ahead of the meeting between the Premier League's two most dominant forces over the past four seasons, Stats Perform looks at Firmino's figures in more detail and just why he may hold the key to Liverpool getting the better of the champions.
KLOPP'S FAITH PAYS OFF
Amid all the noise surrounding Firmino's future heading into the 2022-23 campaign, with Juventus said to be in advanced talks to sign him, Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp branded the forward "the heart and soul" of the team.
No wonder the German thinks so highly of the 31-year-old, with no Liverpool player playing more games (332), featuring for more minutes (23,899) or registering more assists (70) during Klopp's seven years in charge.
The arrivals of Diaz and Nunez, plus the impressive form of Diogo Jota, looked as though it would curtail Firmino's playing time, but he started three of Liverpool's opening four matches of the campaign, including the Community Shield win over City.
Firmino failed to register a single goal or assist in any of those matches, yet he retained the faith of Klopp – albeit helped by Jota being injured and Nunez suspended – and truly kick-started his campaign in the 9-0 thrashing of Bournemouth at the end of August.
In that game, a joint-record winning margin for a side in Premier League history, Firmino became the first Liverpool player to be directly involved in four goals in the first half of a match in the competition en route to scoring two and assisting three. If a reminder was needed of Firmino's qualities, this was very much it.
An important equaliser followed in Liverpool's next match, a late 2-1 win over Newcastle United; two goals to drag Liverpool back from two goals down in a 3-3 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion; another equaliser, this time in defeat to Arsenal; and then another two-goal and an assist showing in the 7-1 midweek Champions League rout of Rangers.
Those 12 goals and assists in all competitions is level with Salah's tally for the season, and double that of next-best Diaz, who has started three games more than the Brazil international. Per minute, no Liverpool player is performing better this season in an attacking sense.
FIRMINO THE FOCAL POINT
Perhaps most remarkable of all as focus turns to Liverpool's meeting with City, Firmino is only one goal short of Haaland's tally for October (five goals compared to six). Across clubs from Europe's top-five leagues, when taking all competitions into account, Monaco's Wissam Ben Yedder is the only other player with five or more goals this month.
Firmino's five goals have come from an expected goals (xG) value of 1.43, incidentally, compared to six from an xG of 3.03 for Haaland – a difference of 3.57 and 2.97 respectively, suggesting the quality of Firmino's chances have been lower than those teed up for Haaland.
That is not to say Firmino is in the same league as Haaland right now – who is? – but on a personal level this is by some way his best start to a campaign for Liverpool. His eight goals after 11 games is at least two more than he has managed in his previous seven seasons at Anfield, while only in 2019-20 has he had more assists than his four this term.
But exactly why is that? Playing against a Bournemouth side unable to defend any balls into the box has admittedly skewed the figures somewhat, though it is clear to see that Firmino's game has also changed this season compared to last.
Just under 11 per cent of his touches of the ball in the Premier League this season have come within the width of the goal inside the penalty area, which is an increase on a figure of six per cent last time out. It was further back last season, and more towards the right, that he more occasionally touched the ball.
Indeed, all eight of his goals this season have come from that central zone inside the box – one via his head, three with his left foot and four with his right.
Another interesting aspect of Firmino's game this season has been his movement, or more specifically his off-the-ball runs into the penalty area. He has made 89 of them in the Premier League in his 468 minutes on the field, which is the most per 90 minutes (17.1) of any player, followed by Haaland (14.1).
That may well be a tactic Liverpool will aim to take full advantage of against City, a side in which Firmino has scored or assisted against seven times in 14 top-flight appearances – only versus Arsenal (13 combined) does he have a better record against among top-five clubs.
So while plenty of the build-up to Sunday's showdown will – justifiably – be centred around Haaland and his remarkable scoring run, Liverpool will have born-again Bobby to call upon in a game they simply must win if they are to keep alive any hopes of challenging for the title.
Ancelotti lauds Real Madrid goalscorer Vinicius after first-leg double
Carlo Ancelotti believes Vinicius Junior is constantly developing his attacking output, after the Real Madrid forward delivered again in the Champions League.
Vinicius scored twice as Madrid drew 2-2 with Bayern Munich in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final tie on Tuesday.
Those strikes took Vinicius to 31 goal involvements (16 goals, 15 assists) in the Champions League since the start of the 2021-22 campaign, which is more than any other player in the competition in the same time period.
Vinicius' opener came when he cut inside and latched onto an exceptional pass from Toni Kroos, and Ancelotti pointed out how the Brazil international is beginning to change how he attacks.
Speaking to TNT Sports, Ancelotti said: "Vinicius is starting to understand how important it is for him to move inside the pitch and not only close to the line.
"He's learned really well how to move. It was a fantastic pass from Kroos but a fantastic run from Vinicius."
Reflecting on his team's performance, Ancelotti said: "It was an interesting game, an open game of course – as it has to be for a semi-final. I think we could play better, I don’t think we played our best and we had problems in the first half.
"We started to put pressure on in the second half to level the game – it was much better.
"We are comfortable with a low block but we didn’t play with intensity. With a low block you have to have intensity, you have to win duels, second balls. We were too low. We tried to change something.
"The game was difficult at 2-1 down, but then we had the energy and character to equalise – the second part of the second half was really good."
Champions League success does not define Bayern move, says Kane
Harry Kane refuted suggestions Champions League glory this season will decide the success of his Bayern Munich move, after Tuesday's 2-2 draw with Real Madrid in the semi-final first leg.
Kane scored from the penalty spot to make it 2-1 to Bayern early in the second half, just four minutes after Leroy Sane had levelled with a thunderous finish at Allianz Arena.
Having finished with his usual ease from 12 yards, Kane became the first English player to be directly involved in 11 goals in a single Champions League campaign.
Kane is the joint-top scorer across Europe's big five leagues in all competitions this season (43 – level with Kylian Mbappe), while the England captain now has the most combined goals and assists of any player (54 – 43 goals and 11 assists).
Regardless of whether Bayern can overcome Madrid in the second leg next week and go all the way in the final, Kane insists his move to Germany is a long-term mission, rather than a one-year aim for success.
When asked on TNT Sports if winning the Champions League would define his Bayern move as a success, Kane responded: "I don't think so.
"I'm here for many years, it's not just a one-off year that I've come for. Of course, the expectation at the start of the year was to win trophies and it hasn't gone our way in the Bundesliga or the cup, but the Champions League is the biggest one of them all.
"If we can somehow get our hands on that one, it'll be an amazing season, but there is a long way to go.
"These are the big games under the lights [that I'm here for]. The atmosphere was incredible. I'm sure at the Bernabeu it'll be the same. It's exactly why I’ve come, I wanted to play in these big games, these big moments, and it's no bigger than next week.
"It'll be tough, we know their history in the competition, but we can take a lot of positives from today. There's a couple of small details that we need to get right because we can get punished in a couple of quick moments, but we can take a lot from this game."
Kane now has 401 goals for club and country, having moved past the quadruple-century mark with his double against Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday.
Including his well-taken penalty against Madrid, the former Tottenham striker now has a personal-best 43 goals in all competitions this season as well.
Yet his focus remains solely on the next game, with Stuttgart to come on Saturday before the return visit to Madrid.
"It's been a good season [personally] so far, but it's always about the next game, the next big game, and it's next week, away from home against Real Madrid," he added.
"Everything we're fighting for this year is in this competition, so we've got to find a way to get it done. It's going to be tough, the Bernabeu, Real Madrid in the Champions League, but we go there with full belief, it's 0-0 and we go there for the win."
Kane's second-half strike on Tuesday came after Sane had cancelled out an opener from Vinicius Junior, whose late penalty then ensured the shares were spoiled at Allianz Arena.
With the pressure on Bayern's spot-kick, Madrid's Jude Bellingham appeared to offer Kane a few words of advice – though the Bayern striker was in his own space preparing to face Andriy Lunin.
"I don't know what he was saying," Kane added on his England team-mate's quiet word. "I saw him there, mumbling something, but I'll have to ask him what he said.
"Once I'm in that zone I'm just trying to block everything out – I'm sure he was saying something to try and put me off. Thankfully it didn't do anything."
Coventry City 1-2 Ipswich Town: Burgess puts Tractor Boys on brink of promotion
Ipswich Town took a huge step to Premier League promotion after Cameron Burgess snatched a second-half winner in Tuesday's 2-1 victory over Coventry City.
Kieran McKenna's side require just one point from their final Championship game against League One-bound Huddersfield Town to go up, after a decisive victory at the Coventry Building Society Arena.
Kieffer Moore blasted in an eighth-minute opener for the visitors after Wes Burns' crafty cutback pass, easing the pressure on Ipswich and dampening the top-two hopes of third-placed Leeds United.
Haji Wright levelled in the second half, only for Burgess to squeeze a winning goal past Bradley Collins five minutes later, putting Ipswich on the brink of top-flight football for the first time since their relegation in 2002.
A draw against Huddersfield, who are 23rd and three points adrift of safety, would secure promotion at Portman Road, marking just the fourth instance of back-to-back promotions in the Premier League era.
Having managed to climb out of League One, McKenna's entertaining side would join Watford, rivals Norwich City and Southampton as the only sides to achieve the feat.
Data Debrief: Ipswich end winless run at perfect time
Prior to this game, only five teams had won fewer points in the Championship than Ipswich's six since the beginning of April (W1 D3 L1).
Yet McKenna's men refused to let their top-flight push derail as the Tractor Boys ended a four-game winless run to move within touching distance of history.
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