Roberto Firmino was not supposed to be Liverpool's go-to man this season. If widespread reports were anything to go by, Firmino himself did not even envisage himself being at Anfield this campaign.
And yet here we are, midway through October, and no Liverpool player – not even the £350,000-a-week Mohamed Salah, despite his record-breaking six-minute hat-trick against Rangers – has played a part in more goals in all competitions this season than Firmino's eight.
Far from being the odd man out following the arrivals of Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez this year, Firmino has regularly stepped up for the Reds this season and is surely in contention to start Sunday's Premier League showdown against Manchester City.
Liverpool quite simply have to win at Anfield, where Firmino will come face-to-face with Europe's hottest striker in Erling Haaland, a player boasting 20 goals – six more than anyone else in Europe's top-five leagues – from his 13 appearances for City and feeling refreshed after a midweek rest.
Ahead of the meeting between the Premier League's two most dominant forces over the past four seasons, Stats Perform looks at Firmino's figures in more detail and just why he may hold the key to Liverpool getting the better of the champions.
KLOPP'S FAITH PAYS OFF
Amid all the noise surrounding Firmino's future heading into the 2022-23 campaign, with Juventus said to be in advanced talks to sign him, Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp branded the forward "the heart and soul" of the team.
No wonder the German thinks so highly of the 31-year-old, with no Liverpool player playing more games (332), featuring for more minutes (23,899) or registering more assists (70) during Klopp's seven years in charge.
The arrivals of Diaz and Nunez, plus the impressive form of Diogo Jota, looked as though it would curtail Firmino's playing time, but he started three of Liverpool's opening four matches of the campaign, including the Community Shield win over City.
Firmino failed to register a single goal or assist in any of those matches, yet he retained the faith of Klopp – albeit helped by Jota being injured and Nunez suspended – and truly kick-started his campaign in the 9-0 thrashing of Bournemouth at the end of August.
In that game, a joint-record winning margin for a side in Premier League history, Firmino became the first Liverpool player to be directly involved in four goals in the first half of a match in the competition en route to scoring two and assisting three. If a reminder was needed of Firmino's qualities, this was very much it.
An important equaliser followed in Liverpool's next match, a late 2-1 win over Newcastle United; two goals to drag Liverpool back from two goals down in a 3-3 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion; another equaliser, this time in defeat to Arsenal; and then another two-goal and an assist showing in the 7-1 midweek Champions League rout of Rangers.
Those 12 goals and assists in all competitions is level with Salah's tally for the season, and double that of next-best Diaz, who has started three games more than the Brazil international. Per minute, no Liverpool player is performing better this season in an attacking sense.
FIRMINO THE FOCAL POINT
Perhaps most remarkable of all as focus turns to Liverpool's meeting with City, Firmino is only one goal short of Haaland's tally for October (five goals compared to six). Across clubs from Europe's top-five leagues, when taking all competitions into account, Monaco's Wissam Ben Yedder is the only other player with five or more goals this month.
Firmino's five goals have come from an expected goals (xG) value of 1.43, incidentally, compared to six from an xG of 3.03 for Haaland – a difference of 3.57 and 2.97 respectively, suggesting the quality of Firmino's chances have been lower than those teed up for Haaland.
That is not to say Firmino is in the same league as Haaland right now – who is? – but on a personal level this is by some way his best start to a campaign for Liverpool. His eight goals after 11 games is at least two more than he has managed in his previous seven seasons at Anfield, while only in 2019-20 has he had more assists than his four this term.
But exactly why is that? Playing against a Bournemouth side unable to defend any balls into the box has admittedly skewed the figures somewhat, though it is clear to see that Firmino's game has also changed this season compared to last.
Just under 11 per cent of his touches of the ball in the Premier League this season have come within the width of the goal inside the penalty area, which is an increase on a figure of six per cent last time out. It was further back last season, and more towards the right, that he more occasionally touched the ball.
Indeed, all eight of his goals this season have come from that central zone inside the box – one via his head, three with his left foot and four with his right.
Another interesting aspect of Firmino's game this season has been his movement, or more specifically his off-the-ball runs into the penalty area. He has made 89 of them in the Premier League in his 468 minutes on the field, which is the most per 90 minutes (17.1) of any player, followed by Haaland (14.1).
That may well be a tactic Liverpool will aim to take full advantage of against City, a side in which Firmino has scored or assisted against seven times in 14 top-flight appearances – only versus Arsenal (13 combined) does he have a better record against among top-five clubs.
So while plenty of the build-up to Sunday's showdown will – justifiably – be centred around Haaland and his remarkable scoring run, Liverpool will have born-again Bobby to call upon in a game they simply must win if they are to keep alive any hopes of challenging for the title.
Gravenberch ready to show off Liverpool form ‘to the world’, says Gakpo
Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo expressed his pride in seeing compatriot Ryan Gravenberch show off his qualities ‘to the whole world’ after a fine start to the Premier League season.
Though the Netherlands pair did not become teammates at Liverpool until late summer of 2023, Gakpo knew well Gravenberch’s talents from their respective Eredivisie spells with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax.
Now in his second season at Anfield, Gravenberch has drawn widespread plaudits for his form in a new deeper-lying midfield role under new head coach Arne Slot, having largely been used as a substitute under Jurgen Klopp.
Gravenberch is the only midfielder in Europe's big-five leagues to both make 30+ tackles (30) and 30+ interceptions (33) in all competitions this season, and Gakpo insisted that his Netherlands team-mate can continue to go from strength to strength, starting against Southampton this Sunday.
“We [the Dutchmen at Liverpool] knew Ryan already from the Eredivisie when he played at Ajax, and I think everybody knew already that he is this good,” Gakpo recently told Men in Blazers.
“After that, he made a move to Bayern Munich, and maybe he didn’t play that much over there, but still everybody in Holland knew how good he could be when he was playing.
“And I think maybe the manager [Slot] also knew this. At the beginning of the season, he put him in a slightly different position, but he gave him the confidence to play there.
“Ryan showed his quality in that position, grabbed his chance as well and turned out to be a good match. He is playing outstandingly for us this season.
“I’m very happy that we can see Ryan, as we Dutchmen already knew, but now he can show it to the whole world. I’m very proud of him.”
Southampton, meanwhile, welcome the Reds to St. Mary’s on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Wolves ahead of the international break, leaving them bottom of the table after 11 games of the season.
The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.
However, the Southampton head coach is relishing the opportunity of facing Liverpool, with his players performing well against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City already this term.
"I'm really excited about Sunday. We're playing the best team in the country at the moment, on their current form and what they have been doing with their manager, built on an incredible foundation from the previous manager, so I'm really looking forward to it,” Martin said.
"I think we showed the guys the Premier League table last season and how much it changed by the end and by the end of December. But it's honestly such an exciting month.
"People talk about the difficulty of the game and every competition we face in the next four or five games, but it's what we all worked so hard for. We should be excited about the challenge.
“I think teams have shown in the last few weeks that you can pick up big results against big teams, good opposition, and we are going to have to. Our level of performance against teams at the top end of the table has been good on the whole."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Southampton – Mateus Fernandes
Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.
In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.
He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).
The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.
Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.
This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.
However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.
But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Southampton – 9.7%
Draw – 12.6%
Liverpool – 77.7%
Taylor proud of 'gritty' Man City display in Hammarby victory
Gareth Taylor was pleased with how his Manchester City players handled the atmosphere against Hammarby to secure their passage into the Champions League quarter-finals.
Khadija Shaw opened the scoring in the 31st minute before Ellen Wangerheim restored parity shortly after the interval with a finish from close range.
But Shaw continued her fine start to the campaign, scoring the winner to become City's all-time top scorer in the competition, surpassing Georgia Stanway and Janine Beckie (both six).
The result saw City make it to the last eight of the competition for the first time since 2021, though the encounter was far from comfortable at the Tele2 Arena on Thursday.
Hammarby ended the contest with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.15 compared to the visitors' 1.07, despite both sides having 14 shots throughout the match.
However, City maintained their unbeaten record against Swedish sides in the competitor (W6), and Taylor was proud of his side's "gritty" display in Stockholm.
“I’m really pleased. It was about qualification for us tonight," Taylor said.
"There were a couple of ways we could do it. Obviously, we knew a point was enough, but I don’t think the players were thinking that way.
“It was a really gritty performance on a really difficult on this pitch. It probably doesn’t look like that for the viewers at home watching it.
"But it was a really lively surface and we worked so hard.
“I felt there were some areas we could control the play better. I have to give credit to Hammarby, they were really aggressive.
"The referee was on our side a little bit in the first half and maybe not in the second.
“I’m really pleased and proud of the players, they really dug in tonight. You come away from a hostile environment with a win.”
Guardiola agrees two-year contract extension with Man City
Pep Guardiola will be Manchester City manager for at least two more seasons after 2024-25, after he signed a two-year contract extension on Thursday.
The 53-year-old was coming to the end of his City deal, which was due to expire at the end of the current campaign, but he has opted to remain at the Etihad Stadium.
The deal itself will take Guardiola's tenure at the club to over a decade, making him City's longest-serving manager since Les McDowall in 1963.
There had been suggestions that he may leave at the end of the season following the announcement that director of football Txiki Begiristain was on his way out.
Guardiola was strongly linked with the England job after Gareth Southgate resigned in the wake of their Euro 2024 final defeat, but the Football Association appointed Thomas Tuchel last month.
“Manchester City means so much to me," Guardiola said. “This is my ninth season here; we have experienced so many amazing times together. I have a really special feeling for this football club.
“That is why I am so happy to be staying for another two more seasons.
“Thank you to everyone for continuing to trust and support me – The Owner, The Chairman Khaldoon, Ferran, Txiki, the players and, of course, the fans… everyone connected to Manchester City. It has always been an honour, a pleasure and a privilege to be here.
“I have said this many times before, but I have everything a manager could ever wish for, and I appreciate that so much.
“Hopefully, now we can add more trophies to the ones we have already won. That will be my focus.”
Having been appointed in 2016, Guardiola is by some distance Manchester City's most successful manager of all time, having won 18 major trophies during his time at the club.
That list includes their first-ever Champions League triumph in 2023 and six Premier League titles, including an unprecedented four on the spin.
He also boasts a 72.04% win percentage across all competitions, which is unsurprisingly the highest of any full-time City manager in history.
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