Missing out on the knockout stages of the Champions League last season – the first time that had happened since the 2003-04 campaign – was considered the ultimate humiliation for Barcelona. 

At a time when they were struggling domestically on the back of losing their greatest player of all time, and with their bleak financial situation there for all to see, finishing behind Benfica to drop into the Europa League was a nadir in the post-Messi era.

Almost a year on from then, with Xavi now settled in the technical area after replacing Ronald Koeman, things are a lot brighter for Barca both on and off the field. But while they may be top of LaLiga after a fine start to the campaign, they are once again at risk of missing out on post-Christmas football in UEFA's showpiece club competition.

Anything other than victory over Inter at Camp Nou on Wednesday would effectively eliminate them from top-two contention, with Bayern Munich looking good value to seal first place, though history is certainly on their side heading into the vital match.

While Xavi will no doubt have one eye on Sunday's top-of-the-table Clasico with Real Madrid, the visit of Inter is just as – or even more – important than what is to come later in the week.

Barca banked on reaching the latter stages of the Champions League when it came to predicting their financial future earlier this year, and anything less would leave the club desperately trying to generate funds through other avenues – if any even still exist at this point.

The Catalan giants have plenty of reasons to be positive ahead of facing Inter, though, even if they did lose 1-0 in the reverse fixture last week to slip three points behind their second-place opponents.

Here, Stats Perform looks at how Group C is shaping up at the midway point and exactly why Barca have what it takes to turn their European campaign around and still qualify for the knockout stages.

A MUST-WIN MATCH

Barcelona kicked off their Champions League season with an emphatic 5-1 win over bottom seeds Viktoria Plzen, with that their third of four victories in a row in all competitions in a fast start to the 2022-23 campaign.

A 2-0 loss at Bayern, in which Robert Lewandowski missed a couple of presentable opportunities against his former side with the game scoreless, halted their momentum somewhat and set up an intriguing trip to Inter, who had themselves lost to Bayern and defeated Plzen.

Should Group C follow that pattern – and there is every reason that could happen given Bayern's dominant European form and Plzen's struggles in the competition proper – Wednesday's clash is simply must win from Barca's perspective, and must-not-lose for Inter.

That is what made Hakan Calhanoglu's winning strike in last week's fixture at San Siro so important, though Barca had every right to feel aggrieved with the scoreline come the end of a game in which they had 72 per cent of the ball.

Inter attempted just five shots and accumulated an expected goals (xG) return of 0.18, with that the lowest of any team to have won a match in the Champions League this season. For context, Barca had an xG of 0.47 – by no means a huge figure in its own right, but enough to highlight they created higher-quality chances.

RETURN OF LEWANGOALSKI?

It was ultimately Inter who came away with three vital points, with that Calhanoglu winner coming from an xG of 0.067, to leave the pressure on Barcelona when the sides reconvene in Catalonia.

It also meant Xavi became the first Barcelona coach to lose his first three Champions League away matches, but Barca have been dominant on their own patch this season, winning each of their past four outings and scoring 13 goals – seven of those coming via Lewandowski.

Lewandowski has had a couple of off days on the continent since scoring a treble against Plzen, following up a profligate display at Bayern with a quiet outing against Inter in which he had just one shot.

However, not since between August and October 2020, a run that started in Bayern's Champions League final win over Paris Saint-Germain, has Lewandowski gone three-straight matches without finding the net in the competition.

INTER'S CAMP NOU STRUGGLES

Barcelona's strong home form in European competition extends beyond this season, though their terrible time of things under Koeman has somewhat blemished what is otherwise a pretty formidable record.

The LaLiga giants have lost only three of their past 44 home matches in the Champions League, winning 36 of those. Their only three losses in that run came in the six matches Koeman oversaw.

Inter have lost on seven of their past eight trips to Spain in the competition since their most recent such win against Valencia in 2004, meanwhile, a run that includes defeats to Barca in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 campaigns.

Indeed, the Italians have lost all five away matches against Barca in the Champions League, failing to score in four of those and netting only once in total. That makes Camp Nou their least favourite ground on the continent.

Such runs are there to be broken, of course, and Inter enter the game on the back of much-needed back-to-back wins, but the omens certainly favour the home team in this battle of the heavyweights – a contest that could yet define Barca's season as they aim to kick-start their European campaign and make amends for last year's humbling early exit.