The Numbers Game: Early title rivals Milan and Napoli look to supporting cast with leading stars absent

By Sports Desk September 16, 2022

It's a bit early in the season to call Napoli's trip to Milan a "title clash" given we're only six games in, but for the Partenopei it is clearly an opportunity to make a statement.

Luciano Spalletti, a former Milan coach, has guided Napoli to 14 points from their first six matches, and they sit top of the fledgling table ahead of Atalanta and the Rossoneri on goal difference.

While Milan have already beaten bitter rivals Inter this term, Napoli haven't had the chance for such a signal of intent – at least, not in Serie A.

But neither Spalletti nor Stefano Pioli will be able to rely on their star men in San Siro on Sunday, adding to the unpredictability of a match that promises excitement.

Sorely missed

Rafael Leao and Victor Osimhen will miss this contest due to suspension and injury, respectively. Both absences are bitter blows to not only the teams, but fans tuning in.

Leao has been an especially key figure for Milan over the past year or so. Since the start of last season, he has played in 40 out of a possible 44 matches, with only Alexis Saelemaekers and Sandro Tonali (both 41) appearing more regularly.

Their win percentage with him stands at 70, while they average 2.3 points with Leao on the pitch. Of the four games he has missed, Milan have only won two.

Over the same period, Osimhen has missed 12 league games for Napoli. Their win rate increases from 58.3 per cent to 65.6 per cent when he plays, and their goals average goes up to 2.2 from 1.5 per game. Similarly, he's the only current Napoli player to score 10 or more Serie A goals (16) in that time.

The opportunity is there for others to step up in their absence.

 

At home on the road

As their position at the Serie A summit suggests, Napoli have enjoyed a fine start to the season, and their Champions League demolition of Liverpool made even more people sit up and take note.

Any successful team cannot just rely on a vociferous home support, however, and Napoli have made decent early strides in that regard, amassing seven points from their first three away Serie A games.

If they can avoid defeat on Sunday, they'll be unbeaten after the first four away games in an Italian top-flight season for the third campaign in succession, a feat no team has ever achieved before.

Granted, Milan's recent home form is decent, having won six on the trot in San Siro, which is their best run since 2013 (eight successive wins). But it was Napoli who ended that run, and the Partenopei are also hoping to rack up three consecutive away league victories over Milan for the first time in 43 years.

Party up front, business in the back

Yes, that's not quite how the saying goes, but this altered phrase is more applicable to Napoli. They have been exciting to watch going forward this term, with Osimhen, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Andre-Franck Zambo Aguissa and Piotr Zielinski all catching the eye on the offensive.

But credit where it's due to Spalletti's side when they're not on the attack, as Napoli have been solid defensively.

Stretching back into last season, they have kept six clean sheets in their past nine Serie A games, including three in six this term.

Even when they have conceded, Napoli possess the necessary mentality – and ability – to fight back, with their six points gained from losing positions second only to Milan's seven in 2022-23.

 

Milan unbeaten, Napoli with everything to prove

Milan's title success last season was helped massively by their exceptionally strong end to the campaign.

They finished 2021-22 with six successive wins and went on an undefeated run that stretched back to January 17 when they suffered a shock 2-1 loss at home to Spezia.

Milan have since stretched that unbeaten streak to 22 league games, which is their longest such run since a 27-match undefeated run ended in January 2021.

That form highlights the task that Napoli face on Sunday, though by the same token, being the team to halt such a sequence would surely show Spalletti's team mean business.

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    Rafael Leao has shrugged off suggestions of a feud between him and Milan head coach Paulo Fonseca despite starting fewer games in recent weeks.

    The winger started three consecutive Serie A matches on the bench after the last international break, coming on to make substitute appearances in two of those.

    He returned to the starting line-up for their 3-3 draw with Cagliari last time out, netting twice in the first half to bring his tally up to three goals for the season, and 50 overall in Serie A.

    Leao has also provided three assists in the Italian top-flight, while he has both attempted (36) and completed (24) the most dribbles of any Milan player in the competition.

    There were reports of tension between Leao and Fonseca due to the former's lack of playing time in recent weeks, but he brushed off the idea.

    "These things happen during the season, I have nothing against him, and he has nothing against me," Leao said while at Portugal's training ground.

    "It's all settled. I don't like being on the bench, obviously, but he makes the decisions and I, as a player, have to respect the coach.

    "When I step onto the pitch, I have to do my best to help the team."

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    "Clearly, I do not agree with that," Leao added about the recent comments.

    "I have been having a great season at Milan but, like everyone else, there are ups and downs. The campaign has only just started. Look, I know that I am not the perfect player and sometimes I can do much better.

    "I am not shaken by this criticism. I have people who help me to improve and those are the ones I have to listen to. This criticism just spurs me on to respond on the pitch."

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    Sultan Al-Ghannam fired through a sea of bodies in the 94th minute of Thursday's Group C contest at AAMI Park, but the celebrations were cut short due to an offside infringement.

    Referee Ali Saeed Al Naqbi had earlier irked the home side by awarding a 12th-minute penalty for an Ahmed Al-Kassar challenge on Mitch Duke, which was then overturned.

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    Data Debrief: Another blank for both sides

    Australia entered this game without a goal against Saudi Arabia in 2,716 days - a run that will extend for a little while longer after this latest blank.

    The Socceroos have failed to score in three of their five third-round qualifying games, while Saudi Arabia have gone three in a row without netting.

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