EPL

Premier League Fantasy Picks: Why Aleksandar Mitrovic might not cool off

By Sports Desk September 02, 2022

With matchday six just around the corner, fresh off the first midweek Premier League fixtures of the season, now is when things can start to get tricky.

Some regular starters will likely be rested, and some new faces could emerge and force their way into the calculations going forward.

In a sink-or-swim week, it will be important to focus on players considered too important to their respective side to leave out – but who are those players?

Using Opta data, Stats Perform is here to help, with four suggestions of players that are in form that is impossible to ignore.

David Raya (Brentford v Leeds United)

Brentford's David Raya produced one of the more unlikely goalkeeping performances of the season in his side's 4-0 win over Manchester United – although maybe it should not have been unexpected.

The Spain international has only the one clean sheet to his name this season, but he ranks second in saves-per-90-minutes, and since the start of last season, he ranks second in save percentage.

Only Jose Sa (75.7 save percentage) has a higher save percentage than Raya's 74.2, and only Dean Henderson (five saves per 90 minutes) stops more shots per game this campaign than Raya's 4.4.


 

Joao Cancelo (Manchester City v Aston Villa)

Manchester City's Portuguese full-back has established himself as one of the most reliable fantasy picks as a crucial part of one of the Premier League's best defences, while also proving to be a consistent source of goals.

Since the start of the 2021-22 season, Cancelo ranks fourth out of all defenders for goal involvements with two goals and seven assists, while only Virgil van Dijk (22) is credited with more clean sheets than Cancelo's 21.

He gets a friendly matchup against Aston Villa as well, who this season have scored four goals and conceded nine from their five matches, placing them in the bottom-five in both categories.

Bukayo Saka (Arsenal v Manchester United)

Arsenal are enjoying their best start to a Premier League season since 2003-04, with five wins from five matches, and 20-year-old winger Bukayo Saka is a big reason they are such a threat going forward.

Among Arsenal players, Saka ranks second in both assists (two) and chances created (10) – and it is no product of a small sample size.

Since the beginning of last season, only Kevin de Bruyne (102), Mohamed Salah (84) and Son Heung-min (80) have created more chances than Saka (78) – with a gap back to Mason Mount in fifth (66).

Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham v Tottenham)

It should never be a surprise to see Aleksandar Mitrovic scoring goals, but to be going at a goal-per-game in a newly promoted side is evidence of the special talent the Serbian possesses.

Only Erling Haaland has more goals than Mitrovic's five so far, and he is tied with the Norwegian for the Premier League lead in both shots (22) and shots on target (12).

Mitrovic's hot start follows his Golden Boot win in the Championship last season, where he netted 43 goals in 44 appearances. Out of England's top four leagues, Mitrovic is 19 goals clear of any other player since the start of that campaign.

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    Leicester have sacked women’s first-team boss Willie Kirk after the club determined the Scot had “breached the team’s code of conduct to a degree that makes his position untenable”.

    The 45-year-old last took charge of the Foxes when they lost 4-0 in the Women’s Super League to Chelsea on March 3, before the club subsequently announced that Kirk was “assisting the club with an internal process”  and would not be on the touchline for their March 9 FA Cup quarter-final.

    Kirk’s then-assistant Jennifer Foster, supported by first team coach Stephen Kirby, oversaw that 2-0 victory and have remained at the helm since.

    They will remain in charge until Kirk’s permanent successor is named.

    A Leicester statement read: “Leicester City Football Club can confirm that Willie Kirk has been dismissed from his position as LCFC Women Manager.

    “Following an extensive internal disciplinary process and respecting the Club’s obligations to individual privacy, Willie was determined to have breached the team’s code of conduct to a degree that makes his position untenable.

    “Established and implemented ahead of the start of the current season, the code forms part of the Club’s ongoing commitment to professionalising the women’s game since the takeover of LCFC Women in 2020, promoting a performance-led culture among players, coaches and technical staff.

    “First Team responsibilities for LCFC Women will continue to be led by Jennifer Foster, supported by Stephen Kirby, while the Club begins the process of appointing a new permanent manager.”

  • Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

  • Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds owed nearly £9million by Wrexham Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds owed nearly £9million by Wrexham

    Wrexham lost £5million in the year of their promotion to the English Football League and now owe nearly £9m to Hollywood owners Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds.

    But turnover doubled to almost £10.5m and Wrexham say financial losses suffered since McElhenney and Reynolds’ takeover in February 2021 should not be repeated due to the income now generated by the League Two club.

    “The amount owed to The RR McReynolds Company, LLC (owned by McElhenney and Reynolds) at the year-end was £8.977m (2022: £3.714m),” read a Wrexham statement.

    “The financial losses suffered by the club since the takeover shouldn’t be repeated, with income generated by the club now sufficient to meet the operational costs of the club going forward.

    “These losses were deemed necessary to allow the club to maximise its full potential in the shortest time practically possible.

    “The club is under no immediate pressure to repay these loans at the expense of the progress we seek to achieve and further financial support will be provided/secured to support the capital expenditure projects the club is currently planning, which includes increasing the capacity of The Racecourse Ground and the development of a training facility for all the club’s teams.

    “The year-on-year income comparisons since the takeover, show the potential of the club.

    “These will significantly increase again for the year ending June 30, 2024, following promotion and the continued popularity of Welcome to Wrexham.”

    Wrexham ended a 15-year absence from the EFL last April by winning the National League, while the women’s team also won promotion to the top tier of Welsh football.

    Turnover increased from £5.972m to £10.478m in the year ending June 30, 2023, but losses were up from £2.913m to £5.113m.

    Wrexham payroll rose from just over £4m to nearly £7m, offsetting increased income in retail operation, sponsorship and advertising and football revenue due to the Dragons reaching the fourth round of the FA Cup.

    The club has attracted widespread global interest following two successful seasons of the FX documentary series Welcome to Wrexham.

    Phil Parkinson’s side are chasing a second successive promotion and are currently third in League Two with seven games to play.

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