When Jack Grealish charged into the penalty area in the 87th minute at the Santiago Bernabeu late last season and saw his shot cleared off the line by Ferland Mendy, there seemed no way Manchester City would not be in the Champions League final.
They were 1-0 up in the semi-final second leg, 5-3 ahead on aggregate. Real Madrid had three minutes plus stoppage time to turn things around – even for a side who produced some memorable comebacks en route to the semi-finals, turning this tie around looked impossible.
Yet the tale unfolded in a matter of minutes, with City's Champions League aspirations dissolving for another season.
Over the course of the two legs, City were comfortably the better team and yet failed to advance to the final in Paris, where Madrid went on to beat Liverpool 1-0.
City's failure served to highlight a key deficiency in their squad.
Whether that's fair or not is up for debate, because they subsequently went on to win a fourth Premier League title in five years, and no one would have questioned the legitimacy of them seeing off Madrid, but when the victor is led by the type of figure the loser is lacking, it's an easy conclusion to jump to.
Karim Benzema may not have been at his unplayable best in that second leg, but he won and converted the ultimately decisive penalty, and the effectiveness with which he led the line in the first game ensured Madrid were still in with a shout upon the return to Spain.
City will now hope they have such a goalscoring talisman in Erling Haaland.
After a slightly unconvincing City debut in the Community Shield last week, failing to score against Liverpool from his game-high 1.04 expected goals (xG), Haaland will make his Premier League bow as the new season begins this weekend, with attention sure to soon turn to European action.
City apparently paid £51.3million (€60m) to Borussia Dortmund for his transfer. Even when you consider the apparently significant agents' fees, it is difficult to see this as anything other than a bargain for City.
The dust may now have settled on City's 2021-22 collapse in the Spanish capital, but it's hard not to look at the deal through the prism of Champions League failure because of what will now be expected – rather than hoped for – with a player like Haaland in the team.
When trying to understand what has specifically gone wrong for City in the Champions League since Pep Guardiola was hired, most observers seem to have different opinions. Some might point to an apparent lack of on-field leaders, others highlight wastefulness at crucial moments, and of course there are many who have bemoaned Pep's dreaded "overthinking".
The idea of there being a lack of on-field leaders has always seemed wide of the mark, while no one can accuse Guardiola of overcomplicating his selections against Madrid. Even if one were to try to claim that, City were on course for the final until the 90th minute of the second leg.
Similarly, wastefulness is something most clubs can be accused of at one time or another, and, in fact, across all the Champions League ties from which City have been eliminated under Guardiola, they have scored 17 times from 16.99 xG. Granted, there were occasions where they didn't score as often as they should have, but over time it evens itself out.
Yet perhaps this is where Haaland can make the difference. Sure, City's xG has evened out over the unsuccessful ties in question, but with a striker as freakishly deadly as the Norwegian – last Saturday at the King Power Stadium excepted – there becomes a greater opportunity to finish chances that maybe you wouldn't generally expect to.
Following his Bundesliga debut on January 18, 2020, Haaland scored 86 goals in 89 games for Dortmund in all competitions, averaging a goal every 84 minutes.
Only Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski (123 goals in 108 games) boasted a better scoring rate over that period among players from Europe's top five leagues.
Despite struggling with injuries in the 2021-22 season, Haaland still managed 29 goals in 30 games for BVB, including a strike in his final game. Twenty-one of those goals were scored via his favoured left foot, three came via his right and the other five were headers.
One thing you cannot accuse City of is being ineffective when it comes to controlling football matches and creating chances – they wouldn't have enjoyed the success they have in the Premier League, under intense pressure from an incredible Liverpool side, if not.
But in knockout ties when there is such a limited amount of time to respond to setbacks or make amends for certain mistakes, whether defensive or in front of goal, the value of the greatest strikers can shine through even more: Benzema showed that against City.
While there remain stylistic compatibility questions to be asked regarding City and Haaland – there were occasions last week when dangerous runs were not quite met by passes, as City adjust to playing with an out-and-out striker – they suddenly have arguably the finest finisher of his generation in their arsenal.
If Haaland isn't the final piece of the puzzle in City's quest for a maiden Champions League crown, Guardiola might as well give up.
Guardiola insists three teams still in title hunt despite Liverpool slip-up
Pep Guardiola insists Liverpool remain in the Premier League title race, despite the Reds losing further ground on Arsenal and Manchester City in a dramatic few days at the summit.
Liverpool suffered a surprise 2-0 defeat to Merseyside rivals Everton on Wednesday, a result which meant they failed to close the gap to Arsenal after the Gunners thrashed Chelsea 5-0 on Tuesday.
While Jurgen Klopp's men couldn't respond to the Gunners pulling clear, City did on Thursday, with Phil Foden scoring twice in an emphatic 4-0 win over Brighton at the Amex Stadium.
One point behind Arsenal with a game in hand, City know five wins from their five remaining matches will seal an unprecedented fourth successive English top-flight title.
However, Guardiola expects further twists and turns in the coming weeks.
Asked if Liverpool were still in contention after City's win, Guardiola told Sky Sports: "Yeah. Many things can happen.
"What happened with Liverpool, losing to Crystal Palace and Everton, can happen to us. It can happen to Arsenal. No-one is safe. We have to rest. Now it is just about recovering for the next one.
"We have been here in the past but being here in the past doesn't mean it is going to happen. We have to do the things to make it happen."
City's comprehensive win – in which Kevin De Bruyne scored his first headed goal in the Premier League – saw them cut Arsenal's goal difference advantage to eight goals.
However, Guardiola believes it will be tough for City to close that gap, saying: "It is difficult to cut. The margin is so big. They score a lot of goals and don't concede.
"The main thing is to win the games. We have five games left and they are tough ones – it's a lot of games. We'll take it one game at a time."
Foden's first goal against Brighton – a deflected free-kick – saw him become just the third player to score 50 top-flight goals under Guardiola while aged 23 or younger, after Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi.
Foden is the favourite to be named Premier League Player of the Season, and while Guardiola believes he should be in contention, he says his player is more concerned with team honours.
"For sure, but he wants to win the Premier League," Guardiola said when asked if Foden deserved individual honours. "His influence in the final third was better than in the last two or three games. Today he was more calm, his decision-making was good and to score goals is always good."
Foden: De Bruyne the best in the Premier League
Phil Foden hailed Manchester City team-mate Kevin De Bruyne as the Premier League's best player after the pair both netted in the 4-0 win over Brighton and Hove Albion.
De Bruyne opened the scoring in Thursday's contest at Amex Stadium before Foden took over with a couple of goals of his own before half-time.
Julian Alvarez rounded off the scoring just after the hour in a one-sided contest as an Erling Haaland-less City moved to within a point of leaders Arsenal with a game in hand.
Belgium international De Bruyne now has four goals and six assists in just 13 league appearances for City this season.
Speaking to Sky Sports News after the win over Brighton, Foden said: "I think when he is at it, he is the best player in the Premier League."
Foden's first goal came via a deflected free-kick that he himself won, although replays showed he slipped rather than being fouled.
The England international doubled his personal tally with a composed finish after Brighton were caught in possession at the back.
Asked about playing more centrally, Foden said: "I have always said that I see myself there. This year I have moved inside and it has helped me massively.
"I enjoy it in the middle. It's where I want to be. At the moment, I am just enjoying my football and playing with freedom."
De Bruyne had earlier opened the scoring with a brilliant opener - his first headed goal for City in the Premier League - as City made it 30 games unbeaten in normal time across all competitions.
Alvarez then went on to round off the scoring in a game that not only saw the reigning champions close the gap on Arsenal, but also narrow the goal difference margin to eight.
"It was a good game," De Bruyne said. "I think we played really good in the first half and every game is a lot of pressure. All we can do is prepare as we did today and win the game that is in front of us.
"We just want to win game-by-game and push for the title. We don't get ahead of ourselves. Now the next game is coming quickly. Try to recover and we go again."
Kyle Walker assisted the De Bruyne and Alvarez goals - the first time the defender has set up two goals in a single Premier League game in what was his 390th appearance in the competition.
Reflecting on his rare headed goal, De Bruyne said: "It doesn't happen too much. Kyle gave a good cross and I think the only way I could reach it is by jumping to it. I will take it but it's not something I am good at."
City have rather ominously won four Premier League games in a row and travel to strugglers Nottingham Forest next up at the weekend, knowing victory in their remaining five games will secure an unprecedented fourth straight title.
"I trust my team. All respect to Liverpool and Arsenal, they are amazing," De Bruyne added. "Arsenal are doing what they need to do and we are also needing to do it. Work hard and be humble enough to keep pushing."
Los Angeles FC v Portland Timbers: Neville relishing swift rematch
Phil Neville is looking forward to a quick reunion with Los Angeles FC when the Portland Timbers head down to southern California.
The Timbers face LAFC on Saturday, just two weeks after they drew 2-2 with Steve Cherundolo’s team at home.
Felipe Mora and Evander scored for Portland that day, but Mateusz Bogusz’s double ensured a share of the spoils, with the Timbers having goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau sent off.
LAFC had a goal disallowed late on, and Neville believes both teams will feel they deserved more from that match.
He said: “Both managers came out of the game two weeks ago feeling hard done by – they had a goal disallowed in the last few minutes, we were really disappointed too in the performance of the referee.
“Saturday’s another game where we have to go for it. When you play teams really close together, there’s not much scouting, there’s only been one game between, so it’s about remembering the good things we did and how we can cause problems.”
Portland drew 2-2 with the Columbus Crew last time out, and Neville is satisfied with the level on show from his side, who sit down in 11th in the Western Conference.
“We took a lot of confidence out of the game against Columbus,” he said.
“We came up with chances to win the game, but we were beaten by an incredible goal. The boys are in really good shape, they’re looking forward to the game on Saturday – my first trip to LAFC so I’m looking forward to that. It’s another brilliant game against a really good team. We played them a couple of weeks ago. We know each other, both teams know each other.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
LAFC – Denis Bouanga
Bouanga scored both of LAFC’s goals against the New York Red Bulls last time out, including the equaliser in stoppage time. It was the eighth time Bouanga has scored multiple goals in an MLS match since the start of last season (incl. playoffs). No other player has more than four multi-goal games in that time.
Portland Timbers – Felipe Mora
Mora has scored in each of his last four appearances for the Timbers, though Portland have not won any of those matches (D3 L1). Mora is the fifth player in the post-shootout era (since 2000) to score in four straight matches but not be on the winning side in any of them.
MATCH PREDICTION: LAFC WIN
LAFC are unbeaten in eight straight home matches (W6 D2) in all competitions. They have scored multiple goals in seven of those eight matches.
However, LAFC have won only two of their last 10 regular-season matches against the Timbers (D4 L4).
The Timbers have scored in all 14 meetings with LAFC in league play since 2019 while LAFC have scored in 13 of those 14.
Portland are winless in six straight matches (D3 L3), including drawing the last three in a row. The Timbers have only three longer winless runs within a single regular season, most recently an eight-match run in March-April 2014.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
LAFC – 56.2%
Portland Timbers – 19.5%
Draw – 24.3%
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