EPL

Haaland and Nunez have potential to reshape City, Liverpool and the Premier League title race

By Sports Desk July 30, 2022

This weekend's Community Shield sees the new English domestic season begin as the last one ended, with Manchester City and Liverpool doing battle.

City pipped Liverpool to the Premier League title, but the Reds got the better of Pep Guardiola's men in their FA Cup semi-final, going on to beat Chelsea in the decider and book their place in Saturday's curtain-raiser.

These two are expected to lead the way once again in 2022-23, yet plenty has changed in their ranks since they were last in action – particularly in attack.

At the Etihad Stadium, Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling have departed to be replaced by Erling Haaland and Julian Alvarez.

With Haaland's arrival perhaps the most notable in the Premier League during this close-season, Liverpool responded with their own big-money big man up front; Darwin Nunez was signed from Benfica to be flanked by the returning Mohamed Salah, but Sadio Mane is gone.

After several years of success at the forefront of English football, Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp appear set to reshape their teams around their latest buys.

Both managers lined up last season primarily without a traditional number nine.

Jesus may return to that role after joining Arsenal, but City's sole centre-forward often played from the right in 2021-22, taking only 16.0 per cent of his Premier League touches in the penalty area.

Haaland, by contrast, took 20.7 per cent of his Bundesliga touches in the box for Borussia Dortmund last term, which explains how a staggering 96.3 per cent of his shots were taken from inside the area – by far a higher share than that of any forward who played for City or Liverpool.

That mark comfortably tops Nunez's (74.1 per cent of shots in the box), too, but the 23-year-old also brings something new to a Reds outfit who have often deployed a false nine through the middle.

Roberto Firmino was that man for a long time and took only 9.5 per cent of his touches in the area last season. Nunez took a mammoth 24.5 per cent of his Primeira Liga touches within 18 yards of goal.

Staying in such positions so regularly helped to boost the shot conversion rates of Haaland (27.5 per cent) and Nunez (30.6 per cent), although both still impressively outperformed their expected goals (xG) totals; Haaland scored 22 from an xG of 18.5, while Nunez netted 26 from an xG of 18.4.

In fact, the numbers suggest Divock Origi was the only player across the best two squads in the Premier League who performed in a manner akin to that which might now be expected of the superstar duo.

Origi, who has left Liverpool for Milan, took 21.7 per cent of his touches in the box, and his shoot-on-sight policy saw an attempt at goal for every 6.9 touches (9.3 for Haaland, 9.8 for Nunez).

Yet this perhaps spoke as much to Origi's role as Liverpool's specialist rescue act as anything else; he made only seven appearances, all from the bench for a combined 126 minutes, yet scored three goals, converting 30.0 per cent of his shots.

Over the course of his time under Klopp, when he was occasionally asked to play wide, Origi's statistics were more in line with those of his former team-mates. Only 13.3 per cent of his touches came in the box, just 68.9 per cent of his shots were from within the same range, and those attempts arrived every 16.4 touches on average.

Maybe Klopp will also ask Nunez to push wide and stretch the play, maintaining the fluid forward line that saw winger Mane increasingly used through the centre in big games.

That should not necessarily hamper Nunez's hopes of scoring regularly; Salah could afford to marginally underperform his xG (23.8) and still strike 23 times in the league last season, playing from the right but taking 19.6 per cent of his touches in the box and needing only 12.4 on average to attempt a shot.

Prior to last season, Guardiola had at least been able to incorporate at City the sort of penalty-box striker he has signed in Haaland.

Sergio Aguero averaged a shot every 10.0 touches under Pep, with 17.8 per cent of his touches across five seasons coming inside the area.

And Haaland brings more to his game, too, if only due to his sheer size. The 1.94-metre ex-Dortmund man won 57.6 per cent of his aerial duels in 2021-22 – no City or Liverpool forward won more than half, with Nunez also lagging on 40.6 per cent.

But perhaps the former Guardiola player whose profile most resembles Haaland's is Zlatan Ibrahimovic – and his Barcelona career was not Pep's biggest success story.

Just as City will have to adapt to Haaland – perhaps by allowing him to compete aerially from a few of their trademark cutback crosses – so will he to them. The forward completed just 71.3 per cent of his passes in the league last season; that lax level of link-up is unlikely to wash in a Guardiola side, as Jesus (84.8 per cent), Sterling (85.4 per cent) and Riyad Mahrez (90.0 per cent) will attest.

Nunez completed 67.1 per cent of his league passes, which would similarly rank him last among Liverpool forwards, but he should at least be familiar with the high-pressing approach enforced by Klopp.

Liverpool led the Premier League in high turnovers (443 or 11.7 per game), average starting position (45.5m upfield) and opposition passes per defensive action (9.9 PPDA), while Benfica (9.0 high turnovers per game, 44.4m starting position and 8.7 PPDA) unsurprisingly ranked in the Primeira Liga's top three in each category.

So, there is plenty to be excited about both in Manchester and in Liverpool and yet great scope for potential teething problems.

The forthcoming title tussle could well be decided by how successfully Haaland and Nunez fit into these ruthless, relentless winning machines, and Saturday provides an early opportunity to assess that process.

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  • Carragher says Liverpool may need to move on from Salah and Nunez Carragher says Liverpool may need to move on from Salah and Nunez

    Jamie Carragher believes Liverpool's next manager has a big decision to make regarding Mohamed Salah's future, adding the Reds definitely need to move on from Darwin Nunez.

    Liverpool's title hopes suffered a potentially fatal blow at Goodison Park on Wednesday, as goals from Jarrad Branthwaite and Dominic Calvert-Lewin handed Everton a memorable 2-0 win.

    The defeat – Liverpool's first at Goodison since 2010 – means they are three points behind Premier League leaders Arsenal and one clear of Manchester City, who have two games in hand.

    Jurgen Klopp now looks likely to end his final season at the helm with just February's EFL Cup triumph to show for his efforts, with Carragher declaring Liverpool's title hopes to be over on Wednesday.

    He also believes Klopp's successor – which could be Feyenoord's Arne Slot if reports are to be believed – may need to shake up Liverpool's frontline.

    "Mo Salah is Liverpool's goalscorer and he's gone off the boil. That's shone a light on others," Carragher told Sky Sports.

    "There is a real discussion for the new manager about what the future holds for Mo Salah – it's the first time we've asked that question. He only has a year to go on his deal.

    "He's looked a shadow of himself for a lot of this season but especially since he's come back from injury. He is Liverpool's legend, superstar, one of the all-time greats, but he's been so far off it."

    Salah has 17 Premier League goals this season, but 14 of those came before he went to the Africa Cup of Nations with Egypt in January.

    Prior to that tournament, Salah boasted a shot conversion rate of 21.54 per cent for 2023-24, netting with 14 of his 65 total attempts in the competition. Since returning, he has only converted 8.57 per cent of his 35 efforts.

    Salah's strike partner Nunez has also come in for criticism, with only Erling Haaland (30) missing more big chances than the Uruguayan's 26 this term. Haaland has, however, converted 34.78 per cent of his big chances to Nunez's 18.75 per cent.

    Carragher does not believe Nunez is capable of further improvement after two up-and-down campaigns on Merseyside, saying: "I think I'm at the stage with Nunez where I'm not sure there's a question to ask.

    "You want him to do well because he gives everything, he causes trouble, he gets the odd goal. 

    "But after two years, when Liverpool are going for the title or in big games, you need your man to score at Old Trafford or at Goodison Park. This is the business end, the time to win. 

    "He's ground to a halt. After two years there's going to be no improvement in him. This is what he is. 

    "He can cause trouble but he's erratic with his finishing – it's not enough to win you trophies so there's a big decision to be made on him. It's not acceptable when you're going for a title."

  • Guardiola insists Man City share same title hunger as challengers Guardiola insists Man City share same title hunger as challengers

    Pep Guardiola insists Manchester City share the same hunger to lift the Premier League trophy as their title rivals, warning perfection may still be needed for the champions to retain their crown. 

    It has been a mixed week for City's rivals thus far, with Arsenal thrashing Chelsea 5-0 on Tuesday before Liverpool suffered a surprise 2-0 defeat in Wednesday's Merseyside derby at Everton.

    Those results mean the Gunners sit four points clear of City and Liverpool lead the champions by one, but with two games in hand, the title race is still very much in City's hands.

    They go to Brighton and Hove Albion on Thursday before facing Nottingham Forest on Sunday, and Guardiola still thinks even the slightest slip-up could prove costly. 

    Asked whether City need to win their six remaining games to win the title, Guardiola said: "Yes, absolutely. They gave us a chance, with the fact they lost last week to Aston Villa and Crystal Palace. 

    "But we knew what we had to do before those games, and now we have to win all games so that at the end, we have it in our hands to retain our title. 

    "Nothing changes. The fact is, we knew what we had to do before, and now nothing has changed."

    Guardiola was then asked whether City are as motivated to win the title as their rivals, having lifted the trophy in five of their seven seasons under him to date.

    He said: "I would not be here [if not]. There are so many games, and to be in this position after what we have done in the past, it would not be possible [without the desire]. 

    "We know the difficulty is extreme, and it will remain difficult because we have tough games coming up. We go one game at a time, and we know that if we lose, it will be so tough to retain the title. 

    "Last Saturday proved the many difficulties we have, especially the schedule and recovery time after the game against [Real] Madrid. The players were unbelievable."

    Guardiola hit out at the busy nature of the schedule after Saturday's FA Cup semi-final win over Chelsea, saying he couldn't understand how his players had managed to perform just three days after their penalty shoot-out defeat to Madrid.

    Those comments have sparked renewed debate about the football calendar, and Guardiola was asked whether elite clubs had a right to complain while organising money-spinning pre-season tours around the globe.

    "Yeah, but we have to do it," he said. "We have to pay the salaries of the players and the manager, and the club has fans all around the world who want to see us. They are an income for us. 

    "It's not easy, but we have to get resources. I would love to say don't go to another continent to play, have another week of holiday, and then train here. But we have to understand the club. 

    "It's not just Man City. Every club needs those financial resources to be sustainable. Now that we've won a lot, for many years, we have a lot of supporters. That's why it's necessary to do, and you have to adapt. 

    "But that is not the reason why [he complained]. The reason is that the schedule is so tight. I'm sorry, it's not."

  • Van Dijk: Liverpool have 'no chance' in title race after derby defeat Van Dijk: Liverpool have 'no chance' in title race after derby defeat

    Virgil van Dijk conceded Liverpool might be out of the Premier League title race after they suffered a surprise 2-0 defeat to Everton in Wednesday's Merseyside derby.

    Jarrad Branthwaite and Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored in either half to give the Toffees their first win over Liverpool at Goodison Park since 2010.

    Liverpool struggled to find a way through the Toffees' defence despite dominating for long periods, and the Reds' captain says they will not outlast Arsenal and Manchester City without major improvements.  

    Speaking to Sky Sports, Van Dijk said: "If we play like today, then we have no chance to consider ourselves in the title race. 

    "We have to just focus on the next game and that will be a tough one anyway, so we will see.

    "We're very disappointed, in so many ways. I think everyone has to look at their own performances. Did they really give everything, and do they really want to win the league?

    "We're still fighting and there are still games after tonight, but if we play like we did overall in the game today – not winning challenges and giving the referee a chance to give free-kicks like he did many times, then you have no chance to win the title."

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