Edu's make-or-break Gabriel Jesus deal and Arsenal's number nine curse

By Sports Desk July 28, 2022

Arsenal's Edu-led evolution is set to come to a head in the 2022-23 season, with the technical director stating publicly this week that a top-four finish is the target.

Inconsistency throughout last season, culminating in a poor run of form at the end of the campaign, saw Arsenal's absence from the Champions League extend to five years.

With Mikel Arteta at the helm and Edu leading the recruitment, the Gunners now believe this is their time and, with the Brazilian's comments in pre-season about this being the season for success in the long-term plan, the pressure is on.

Arsenal have brought in the likes of Martin Odegaard and Aaron Ramsdale in recent times, while they have also cemented the futures of young players like Eddie Nketiah and Emile Smith Rowe.

One major piece of the puzzle was missing last season, however, with no striker to take the mantle of leading the line until Nketiah's purple patch – but the London club are hoping that will change with the capture of Gabriel Jesus.

Signed following a trophy-laden spell at Manchester City, the fact that Arsenal managed to land Jesus, in a World Cup year no less, is a feather in Edu's cap, but the real question is, can he end Arsenal's number nine curse?

Staggeringly, no number nine has hit 15 goals for the club in a Premier League season since the 1998-99 campaign, when Nicolas Anelka found the back of the net 17 times.

Since then, Davor Sukor, Francis Jeffers, Jose Antonio Reyes, Julio Baptista, Eduardo, Park Chu Young, Lukas Podolski and Lucas Perez have all graced the number nine shirt with varying, but largely disappointing, returns.

Alexandre Lacazette came closest with a 14-goal haul in his first Premier League season but, with just four top-flight goals last year, it was clear the Gunners needed a significant upgrade on the Frenchman.

Jesus has also fallen short of the 15-goal mark in his Premier League career, with a season-high of 14 in the 2019-20 campaign – though it is worth mentioning his City career has seen him be a member of the supporting cast, rather than the leading man.

He will be first choice through the middle at Arsenal and his numbers are encouraging compared to those who have recently had that role.

In Lacazette, Arsenal had a forward who scored 78 Premier League goals at a rate of 0.5 per 90 minutes, totalling just over 14,000 minutes in the competition– a record that Jesus easily beats.

Jesus has scored 95 Premier League goals at a rate of 0.6 per 90 minutes, playing just over 100 minutes more than the Frenchman – and his return is comparable to what Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang achieved during his stint at the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal's former captain outscored both with 104 career Premier League goals, a rate of 0.65 per 90 minutes, but he played over 300 minutes more than Jesus did for City.

Again, his role for City was different, playing alongside the likes of Sergio Aguero and, when his fellow South American departed, Pep Guardiola elected to mainly utilise him in a wider area – limiting his opportunities in front of goal.

Through the middle, Jesus' task will be to improve the return in the final third where, during the 2021-22 season, Arsenal netted 39 goals in open play compared to an xG of 48.2.

A number of missed opportunities were high xG chances that, over the course of the season, could have made a significant difference in the battle for Champions League football.

What Arsenal lacked in a recognised striker, however, they made up for in other areas, with a further 21 goals over the course of the season coming from set-pieces.

Other areas where Arsenal shone included the goals they scored on the counter-attack, netting a joint league-high of six, which Jesus should be able to improve. Arsenal also hit the woodwork on 18 occasions, so they will be looking for the Brazilian to make them more clinical.

Pre-season has also been encouraging for the early part of Jesus' career in the capital, scoring four goals in as many games – including a well-taken chipped finish in the 4-0 Florida Cup drubbing of London rivals Chelsea.

Jesus should get support from Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe, who both hit double figures for goals last season, while Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, Nketiah and Gabriel Magalhaes all scored at least five.

That ought to also help Jesus' assists return, with the 25-year-old providing 29 during his time at City – including eight last season, enough to be joint-top of the Premier League champions' assist charts alongside Kevin de Bruyne.

According to the numbers, Jesus is more than capable of being the man Arsenal have needed ever since Aubameyang's fall from grace – but he cannot do it alone and the Gunners need to be firing on all cylinders.

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    Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo expressed his pride in seeing compatriot Ryan Gravenberch show off his qualities ‘to the whole world’ after a fine start to the Premier League season.

    Though the Netherlands pair did not become teammates at Liverpool until late summer of 2023, Gakpo knew well Gravenberch’s talents from their respective Eredivisie spells with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax.

    Now in his second season at Anfield, Gravenberch has drawn widespread plaudits for his form in a new deeper-lying midfield role under new head coach Arne Slot, having largely been used as a substitute under Jurgen Klopp.

    Gravenberch is the only midfielder in Europe's big-five leagues to both make 30+ tackles (30) and 30+ interceptions (33) in all competitions this season, and Gakpo insisted that his Netherlands team-mate can continue to go from strength to strength, starting against Southampton this Sunday.

    “We [the Dutchmen at Liverpool] knew Ryan already from the Eredivisie when he played at Ajax, and I think everybody knew already that he is this good,” Gakpo recently told Men in Blazers.

    “After that, he made a move to Bayern Munich, and maybe he didn’t play that much over there, but still everybody in Holland knew how good he could be when he was playing.

    “And I think maybe the manager [Slot] also knew this. At the beginning of the season, he put him in a slightly different position, but he gave him the confidence to play there.

    “Ryan showed his quality in that position, grabbed his chance as well and turned out to be a good match. He is playing outstandingly for us this season.

    “I’m very happy that we can see Ryan, as we Dutchmen already knew, but now he can show it to the whole world. I’m very proud of him.”

    Southampton, meanwhile, welcome the Reds to St. Mary’s on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Wolves ahead of the international break, leaving them bottom of the table after 11 games of the season.

    The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.

    However, the Southampton head coach is relishing the opportunity of facing Liverpool, with his players performing well against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City already this term.

    "I'm really excited about Sunday. We're playing the best team in the country at the moment, on their current form and what they have been doing with their manager, built on an incredible foundation from the previous manager, so I'm really looking forward to it,” Martin said.

    "I think we showed the guys the Premier League table last season and how much it changed by the end and by the end of December. But it's honestly such an exciting month.

    "People talk about the difficulty of the game and every competition we face in the next four or five games, but it's what we all worked so hard for. We should be excited about the challenge.  

    “I think teams have shown in the last few weeks that you can pick up big results against big teams, good opposition, and we are going to have to. Our level of performance against teams at the top end of the table has been good on the whole."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Southampton – Mateus Fernandes

    Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.

    In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.

    Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

    Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.

    He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

    MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN

    Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).

    The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.

    Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.

    This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.

    However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.

    But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Southampton – 9.7%

    Draw – 12.6%

    Liverpool – 77.7%

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    McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.

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    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

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    Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho

    Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).

    The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).

    MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN

    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

    The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.

    United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.

    The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.

    However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Ipswich Town - 22.2%

    Draw - 23%

    Manchester United - 54.8%

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