EPL

Shevchenko's struggles and El Nino's nightmare – Lukaku the latest high-profile striker to flop at Chelsea

By Sports Desk June 29, 2022

Romelu Lukaku's second spell with Chelsea lasted just one season.

Inter have confirmed the return of Lukaku in a season-long loan deal just 321 days after selling him to Chelsea for just under £100million.

It reunites Lukaku with the club with whom he won the Scudetto in 2021 and writes another chapter in the history of the Blues signing a high-profile striker, only for them to fail to produce.

As the London club perhaps wonder what might have been with Lukaku, Stats Perform looks back at the string of forwards who saw their goals dry up after moving to Stamford Bridge.

Mateja Kezman

Kezman did not arrive for big money by today's standards, joining from PSV for a £5.3m fee in 2004, but he came with significant expectations after a goal-laden spell in the Eredivisie in which he plundered 105 in 122 league appearances and won the title twice.

However, he came nowhere close to living up to the billing in his sole season in the Premier League, finding the net seven times in 41 games in all competitions. His most important goal was the ultimately decisive third in Chelsea's League Cup final win over Liverpool as the Blues did the double, going on to claim a first Premier League crown under Jose Mourinho.

He was subsequently sold to Atletico Madrid and had spells with Fenerbahce and Paris Saint-Germain that delivered more trophies, though he never managed to recapture his PSV form.

Andriy Shevchenko

Few strikers in world football were as feared as Shevchenko during his golden years at Milan, for whom he remains the second-highest goalscorer in the club's history with 175.

Chelsea's £30.8m move to lure him from San Siro in 2006, then a record fee paid by an English club, reflected his reputation. Yet Shevchenko's transition to the Premier League did not go to plan.

In his final season in Serie A, Shevchenko averaged a goal every 116 minutes. Across two seasons with Chelsea, that dipped to one every 284 minutes in the Premier League. He netted 22 in 77 games in all competitions, with the appointment of Avram Grant as Mourinho's successor in 2007 limiting his game time. Shevchenko won the FA Cup and League Cup with the Blues but was an unused substitute as they lost the 2008 Champions League final to Manchester United.

He was sent back to Milan for an unsuccessful loan spell before finishing his career back at boyhood club Dynamo Kyiv.

Fernando Torres

Torres' 2011 move from Liverpool to Chelsea was one of the most famous January transfers in Premier League history. As with a lot of January moves, it did not have the desired impact.

In his final two full seasons with Liverpool in 2008-09 and 2009-10, 'El Nino' scored 32 Premier League goals from 166 shots that had an expected goals (xG) value of 13.3. In 2010-11, he scored nine for Liverpool from an xG value of 8.5. Across three and a half seasons with Chelsea, Torres scored 20 league goals from 217 shots with an xG value of 26.5.

In terms of silverware, Torres was still successful with Chelsea, winning three trophies. His crowning moment came as he scored the decisive goal at Camp Nou against Barcelona to send the Blues into the Champions League final, where they beat Bayern Munich on penalties.

But his overall output was never close to good enough, and he too had a brief spell at Milan before heading back to where it all began with Atletico Madrid.

Alvaro Morata

Of all the players on this list, Morata's relative lack of goalscoring success was the least surprising given he made the move to Stamford Bridge having never scored more than 15 league goals in a single season in his career.

Moving from Real Madrid on the back of that career-best campaign in 2016-17, Morata was unable to live up to his reported £60m fee, scoring 11 goals in 31 games in his first season and five in 16 in the first half of his second before being loaned to Atletico, who he then joined on a permanent basis having won the FA Cup and Europa League with Chelsea.

Timo Werner

Werner still has the chance to turn his Chelsea career around, but the former RB Leipzig striker's time at Stamford Bridge has followed a very similar trajectory to Chelsea's high-profile misfires.

Having scored 95 goals in 159 games for Leipzig, Werner has netted only 23 in two seasons for Chelsea since his £47.5m move, with his 191 shots carrying an xG value of 33.7, illustrating just how poorly the Germany international has performed in front of goal.

He has brought value in other areas, serving as a high-energy focal point of the Chelsea attack, but Thomas Tuchel will surely want to see more in terms of end product for Werner to free himself from the 'flop' tag.

Romelu Lukaku

Unable to cement a place in the Chelsea first team during his first spell with the club, Lukaku's second act at Stamford Bridge was expected to be much more profitable.

Chelsea forked out a club-record £97.5m on that proving to be the case but have now moved to cut their losses and allow Lukaku to return to Inter, if only on loan.

Lukaku scored a goal every 120 minutes in helping Inter to Serie A glory in 2020-21 but managed just eight in the Premier League at one every 198 minutes.

Between Werner and Lukaku, Chelsea could not afford to carry two struggling strikers, with the latter becoming the latest in a long line of misguided attacking investments to make a swift exit.

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  • Premier League managers under pressure: What does the data say about Ten Hag, Martin and O'Neil? Premier League managers under pressure: What does the data say about Ten Hag, Martin and O'Neil?

    The second international break of the campaign is upon us, and in the Premier League, that usually means one thing.

    Sacking season may be drawing closer. Seven games into 2024-25, some managers might already have reason to worry.

    While Everton's Sean Dyche and Leicester City's Steve Cooper are among those to have eased the pressure with crucial victories in recent weeks, and Oliver Glasner will likely get more time at Crystal Palace, three other bosses are under scrutiny already.

    Manchester United's worst start to any Premier League season after seven games has seen Erik ten Hag come in for heavy criticism, while Wolves and Southampton are yet to record a single victory, meaning Gary O'Neil and Russell Martin could soon come under fire.

    But what does the data say about the shortcomings of those sides, and what might lie ahead for each of them? Let's find out.

    Erik ten Hag (Man Utd)

    A goalless draw at Aston Villa on Sunday may have stopped the rot for United, but the Red Devils enter the October international break mired in 14th, with just eight points. 

    They last won fewer points through seven matches of any season in 1989-90, when Alex Ferguson's men finished 13th in the old First Division.

    Ten Hag admitted after Sunday's game that United's start was not good enough, though he did hail their organisation and put their struggles down to shortcomings in the final third.

    The data certainly supports the idea their main issues are in attack, though the idea Ten Hag has fixed things at the back is seemingly wide of the mark.

    Last season, United were continually criticised for giving up opportunities, with only Luton Town (79.77), Sheffield United (77.49), West Ham (72.15) and Burnley (71.92) permitting a higher expected goals against (xGA) figure than their 70.08. Three of those teams were, of course, relegated.

    Only six teams have given up better chances than United this term, though a huge 4.59 of their total 11.54 xGA was conceded in one game – the 3-0 home defeat to Spurs on matchday six. With eight goals conceded, Ten Hag's men may have been fortunate to come up against some wasteful opponents.

    At the other end, United have netted just five times – only in 1972-73 (four) have they scored fewer through their first seven matches of a top-flight season.

    Their current run of three league games without a goal, meanwhile, has equalled their worst streak in the competition under Ten Hag (runs of three in both December 2023 and April 2023).

    United's five goals have come from 11.11 xG, making them the league's highest underperformers, scoring 6.11 goals fewer than expected given their quality of chances created. Their shot conversion rate of 5.62%, meanwhile, is worse than all but Southampton (5.26%) and Palace (5.43%), who are both winless.

     

    While Ten Hag's transitional style of play has been blamed for United's defensive issues, what can he do to improve their fortunes in attack?

    To an extent, he has been let down by individuals underperforming. Captain Bruno Fernandes, whose 54 Premier League goals since arriving in January 2020 are more than any other Red Devils team-mate, has failed to score from chances worth 1.9 xG this term – the highest figure accumulated by any player yet to net in the Premier League.

    Alejandro Garnacho (one goal from 2.38 xG) and Joshua Zirkzee (one goal from 2.44 xG) have also underperformed, though it should be acknowledged that an injury to Rasmus Hojlund – who scored 16 times in all competitions last season – has not helped.

     

    Ultimately, though, Ten Hag can have few complaints about United's predicament. According to Opta's expected points model, the Red Devils could only expect to be 10th in the table, just 2.4 points better off than they are in reality.

    If United stick with the Dutchman, he may need a run of results immediately after the international break, ahead of a festive fixture list featuring trips to Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool.

    Brentford and West Ham are their next two league opponents, before Chelsea visit Old Trafford on November 3. A Europa League clash with Fenerbahce – and former United boss Jose Mourinho – will bring more intrigue on October 24.

    The Opta supercomputer shows little faith in Ten Hag's ability to turn things around. United were assigned an 18.8% chance of a top-four finish, which has now dropped to just 2.5%.

    Russell Martin (Southampton)

    Promoted as play-off victors following their victory over Leeds United at Wembley in May, Southampton were expected by many to struggle on their return to the top flight.

    But a return of just one point from seven matches will still be viewed as disappointing, particularly given they have already welcomed the likes of Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest to St Mary's.

    Across this season and the 2022-23 campaign, Saints are now winless in 20 Premier League matches, equalling their longest such streak in the top flight (also 20 between August and December 1969).

    Supporters have, quite simply, grown weary of losing matches. And while Martin's progressive, possession-based style might be easy on the eye, results are king when battling to remain in the Premier League, and patience is a virtue.

    The chief criticism that Vincent Kompany received during Burnley's relegation campaign in 2023-24 was one of naivety, and it has not taken long for Martin's Saints to get similar treatment. 

    Their average possession share of 57.42% is enough to rank them fifth in the league, behind only Manchester City (63.47%), Tottenham (62.44%), Liverpool (60.25%) and Brighton (58.5%). 

    However, it has too often been a case of possession without punch, with Southampton's four goals scored being the fewest in the division. Their xG underperformance of -4.34, meanwhile, is the second-worst in the league, behind United's.

     

    Missing chances has not been Southampton's only issue, with their 165 touches in the opposition box being the sixth-fewest in the league, despite their 5,117 total touches being the fourth-most.

    Another major criticism of Martin's side, who look to build from the back at every opportunity, relates to their tendency to put themselves in trouble. They have made the most errors leading to goals (six) and shots (10) in the league this season.

    Southampton's opponents, meanwhile, have forced turnovers through pressures in the final third on 81 occasions. Only Brentford, Chelsea (both 91) and United (82) have given up more.

     

    The chances of Martin ditching his masterplan appear slim, but greater pragmatism and flexibility may be required if Southampton are to give themselves a chance of survival.

    Martin's achievement in getting Southampton back to the Premier League – and the manner in which he did it – will likely mean he gets more time. But their next game, at home to fellow promoted side Leicester on October 19, is a big one, while they also face fellow strugglers Everton and Wolves before mid-November.

    In the Opta supercomputer's season predictions, Southampton are now relegated in a huge 90.8% of scenarios, finishing bottom in 59.1%. No other team has more than a 14.8% chance of propping up the table.

    Gary O'Neil (Wolves)

    Perhaps one of the biggest surprises of the season to date is Wolves' position at the foot of the pile, after they threatened a European push in O'Neil's first campaign at the helm.

    An incredibly difficult fixture list has played its part, with Wolves facing five of last season's top seven – Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle United, Aston Villa and Liverpool – in the first seven matchweeks, and Manchester City are their next assignment after the hiatus.

    However, Wolves are a side that has developed a habit of losing games, only managing one victory – against since-relegated Luton – in 17 league games since March 9 (three draws, 13 defeats).

    Their tally of 21 goals conceded, meanwhile, is six more than any other side in the division (Southampton are next with 15). 

     

    The decision to sell captain Max Kilman to West Ham without investing any of the £40million proceeds on a new centre-back looked ill-advised in pre-season, and downright neglectful when Colombia international Yerson Mosquera suffered what is likely to be a season-ending knee injury in a 3-1 loss at Villa.

    Wolves have arguably been unfortunate at times, with their xGA figure of 14 being lower than those of Ipswich (15.7), Leicester (14.91) and Southampton (14.05). August's 6-2 defeat to Chelsea was a particularly freakish result, with Wolves winning the xG battle 1.96-1.68.

    But a failure to do the simple things has repeatedly cost them. A series of poor goals conceded from set-pieces led to dead-ball coach Jack Wilson being sacked just a few months on from his arrival, and the pressure is now on O'Neil to plug the gaps.

    A lack of defensive options could hinder him, though. Wolves have just three fit centre-backs in Craig Dawson, Santiago Bueno and Toti Gomes. The club chose to spend a reported £21million on midfielder Andre – a supremely talented but arguably unnecessary buy – rather than a new defensive lynchpin on transfer deadline day.

    Fixtures against Man City and Brighton mean things could get worse before they get better, before a crucial run of eight games against Palace, Southampton, Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton, West Ham, Ipswich and Leicester. 

    Expect O'Neil's future to be decided by Christmas, one way or another. The Opta supercomputer now gives Wolves a 51.9% chance of being relegated, up from 20.9% in pre-season.

    The good news for Wolves fans? The last time they started a top-flight campaign without a win in seven games, in 2003-04, they got up and running at the eighth attempt, beating Man City 1-0.

  • Injury forces Militao out of Brazil's World Cup qualifiers Injury forces Militao out of Brazil's World Cup qualifiers

    Eder Militao will miss Brazil's upcoming World Cup qualifiers against Chile and Peru due to a thigh injury.

    The defender, who also missed September's fixtures due to a leg injury, first felt some discomfort against Atletico Madrid on September 29.

    Though he has featured for Real Madrid since, he flew out to Sao Paulo to undergo checks on the issue, where the national team confirmed the extent of the injury.

    "[Militao] underwent tests this Sunday... which revealed a minor muscle injury in his left thigh that will prevent him from playing," the CBF said in a statement.

    He is the second Madrid player to pull out of the Brazil squad, with Vinicius Junior also unfit to play after suffering a neck injury.

    Brazil sit fifth in South America's qualification table after eight matches, with 10 points. 

  • Premier League MD7: Lucky winners and unlucky losers Premier League MD7: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

    There were plenty of thrills and spills across the board in the Premier League as matchday seven ran its course.

    Manchester City and Arsenal both had to come from behind to beat Fulham and Southampton respectively at home, while there were eight goals scored as Brentford overcame Wolves 5-3, with six of those strikes coming in the first half in west London.

    Liverpool kept themselves ahead at the summit thanks to a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace, while Manchester United stopped the rot by holding Aston Villa, albeit they have now tallied up their lowest points total after seven games of any Premier League season.

    Leicester City, meanwhile, grabbed their first win of the campaign, while Anthony Gordon endured a miserable return to Goodison Park with Newcastle United. In the final fixture of the weekend, Brighton stunned Tottenham, forging a second-half comeback to win 3-2 at the Amex Stadium.

    So, after all that, who were the unlucky, and lucky, teams based on the underlying metrics?

    Lucky winners: Leicester City

    Leicester finally got their first top-flight win of the season on the board, as they edged out Bournemouth 1-0 thanks to Facundo Buonanotte's excellent run and finish.

    But, it's fair to say it was something of a smash-and-grab for Steve Cooper's team at the King Power Stadium. Leicester had just six shots, with only two of those hitting the target, and they tallied up just 0.79 expected goals (xG).

     

    On the other hand, Bournemouth had 19 attempts, creating five big chances (a tally bettered only by Brentford's eight and West Ham's nine this week) and accumulating 2.16 xG.

    Bournemouth only have themselves to blame for wasteful finishing – they got just two of their efforts on target – but the Cherries can still consider themselves unfortunate.

    Unlucky losers: Newcastle

    Determined to impress against his former club, Gordon fluffed his lines when his big moment arrived as Newcastle drew 0-0 with Everton on Saturday.

    With James Tarkowski having conceded a penalty by recklessly pulling the shirt of Sandro Tonali, Gordon stepped up to the spot, but Jordan Pickford guessed the right way.

    While Everton wanted a penalty of their own in the second half, the Toffees were largely second-best and that is backed up by the metrics. Even discounting Gordon's spot-kick, Newcastle finished with 1.26 xG and 14 shots. The hosts accumulated 0.67 xG and had eight attempts.

    Lucky winners: Man City

    It's not often that the champions are given a run for their money at home, but Fulham did just that.

     

    Indeed, Fulham finished with 2.6 xG at the Etihad Stadium, the fourth-highest total across the league this weekend, while they created five big chances.

    Pep Guardiola has said he is not concerned by Man City's unusually open defence, but he will want to see better from his team in that regard after the international break.

    Going forward, City benefited from three excellent finishes - two from Mateo Kovacic and one from Jeremy Doku. Their 1.57 xG came from 20 shots, though they created only one big chance.

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