Even when Jack Grealish charged into the penalty area in the 87th at the Santiago Bernabeu last month and saw his shot cleared off the line by Ferland Mendy, there seemed no way Manchester City wouldn't be in the Champions League final.
They were already 1-0 up in the semi-final second leg, 5-3 up on aggregate. Real Madrid had three minutes plus stoppage time to turn things around – even for a side that produced some memorable comebacks en route to the semi-finals, turning things around looked impossible.
Yet we all know how the tale unfolded in a matter of minutes, with City's Champions League aspirations dissolving for another season.
Over the course of the two legs, City were comfortably the better team and yet to failed to advance through to the final in Paris, where Madrid went on to beat Liverpool 1-0.
City's failure served to highlight a key deficiency in their squad.
Whether that's fair or not is up for debate, because they have since gone on to win a fourth Premier League title in five years, and no one would've questioned the legitimacy of them seeing off Madrid, but when the victor is led by the type of figure the loser is lacking, it's an easy conclusion to jump to.
Karim Benzema may not have been at his unplayable best in last month's second leg, but he won and converted the ultimately decisive penalty, and the effectiveness with which he led the line in the first leg ensured Madrid were still in with a shout upon the return to Spain.
City will now hope they have such a goalscoring talisman in Erling Haaland.
A month after confirming an agreement was in place for Haaland, City announced on Monday that the prolific striker has put pen to paper on a five-year deal that will officially go through on July 1.
City are apparently set to pay £51.3million (€60m) to Borussia Dortmund for his transfer. Even when you consider the apparently significant agents' fees et cetera, it's difficult to see this as anything other than a bargain for City.
The dust may now have settled on City's recent collapse in the Spanish capital, but it's hard not to look at the deal through the prism of Champions League failure because of what will now be expected – rather than hoped for – with a player like Haaland in the team.
When trying to understand what has specifically gone wrong for City in the Champions League since Guardiola was hired, most people seem to have different opinions. Some might point to an apparent lack of on-field leaders, others highlight wastefulness at crucial moments, and of course there are many who have bemoaned Pep's dreaded "overthinking".
The idea of there being a lack of on-field leaders has always seemed wide of the mark, while no one can accuse Guardiola of overcomplicating his selections against Madrid – even if they did try to claim that, City were on course for the final until the 90th minute of the second leg.
Similarly, wastefulness is something most clubs can be accused of at one time or another and, in fact, across all the Champions League ties from which City have been eliminated under Guardiola, they have scored 17 times from 16.99 expected goals (xG). Granted, there were occasions where they didn't score as often as they should have, but over time it evens itself out.
Yet perhaps this is where Haaland can make the difference. Sure, City's xG has evened out over the unsuccessful ties in question, but with a striker as freakishly deadly as the Norwegian, there becomes a greater opportunity to finish chances that maybe you wouldn't generally expect to.
Since his Bundesliga debut on January 18, 2020, Haaland has scored 86 goals in 89 games for Dortmund in all competitions, averaging a goal every 84 minutes.
Only Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski (123 goals in 108 games) boasts a better scoring rate over that period among players from Europe's top five leagues.
Despite struggling with injuries in the 2021-22 season, he still managed 29 goals in 30 games for BVB, including a strike in his final game. Twenty-one of those goals were scored via his favoured left foot, three came via his right and the other five were headers.
One thing you cannot accuse City of is being ineffective when it comes to controlling football matches and creating chances – they wouldn't have enjoyed the success they have in the Premier League, under intense pressure from an incredible Liverpool side, if not.
But in knockout ties when there is such a limited amount of time to respond to setbacks or make amends for certain mistakes, whether that's defensive or in front of goal, the value of the greatest strikers can shine through even more: Benzema showed that against City.
While there are likely to be stylistic compatibility questions to be asked regarding City and Haaland, particularly given the Premier League champions haven't really played with an out-and-out striker for a couple of years now, they suddenly have arguably the finest finisher of his generation in their arsenal.
If Haaland isn't the final piece of the puzzle in City's quest for a maiden Champions League crown, Guardiola might as well give up.
Schwarz believes pressure will bring out the best in Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls head coach Sandro Schwarz says pressure is good for players as they prepare to face rivals New York City FC in the MLS Eastern Conference semifinal.
The Red Bulls beat defending MLS Cup champions Columbus Crew 1-0 in the first of their best-of-three series before edging them 5-4 on penalties in Game 2.
They are playing in the semifinals for the first time since 2018, though it is the first time they are meeting their city rivals in the postseason in their history.
Schwarz acknowledged there was a lot riding on this game but is sure the pressure can bring out the best in his team.
"To feel the pressure as a player and head coach is good," he told reporters. "We need the pressure to bring our best performance and level.
"Without pressure, it's not possible. Now we have this historic derby on Saturday and we're very excited.
"Our main target is to win this game, but our focus is to get a result like we had against Columbus. The last three weeks have been looking at how we can create our best performance for Saturday."
Meanwhile, NYCFC had to come from behind in round one after losing their first match to FC Cincinnati but won the second at home before going through with a 6-5 penalty shootout win in the decider.
Head coach Nick Cushing is delighted to have home advantage for the semifinal tie but says he is not yet thinking about securing the same fate in the next round.
"I've learned over my tenure here as assistant coach and as head coach that the next game is the most important part," Cushing said.
"The whole focus is hosting a playoff semifinal at home. We're really proud that we've done everything to get to this opportunity, but there are many more challenges ahead, and we cannot look further than the first 10 minutes of the game, because that is our main focus.
"And then, through there, we have a game plan and half-time. We're working through this game, and that is our whole focus."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
New York City FC – Alonzo Martinez
Twelve of Alonzo Martinez's 17 goals this season (regular season and playoffs) have been scored in home matches, while Santiago Rodriguez has scored 11 of his 13 goals at home.
Both players found the net in NYCFC's home win over Cincinnati in Game 2 of their first-round series.
New York Red Bulls – Emil Forsberg
Emil Forsberg became the 14th different Red Bulls player to record a goal and an assist in a single playoff match in Game 2 of New York's first-round series against Columbus Crew.
No player has more than one such game in the team's postseason history.
MATCH PREDICTION: NEW YORK CITY FC WIN
This will be the first playoff meeting between New York City FC and the Red Bulls, but the fifth in knockout rounds in all competitions.
The Red Bulls eliminated NYCFC in each of the previous four knockout round meetings, doing so in the US Open Cup three times and the Leagues Cup once.
NYCFC has won five of their eight all-time home playoff matches, including the last three in a row. All three teams that defeated NYCFC on the road in the playoffs went on to reach the MLS Cup Final (Toronto FC in 2016 & 2019, Atlanta United in 2018).
The Red Bulls' 1-0 win at Columbus in Game 1 on October 29 ended a six-match road losing streak in postseason play for the club. The Red Bulls have won multiple road playoff games in a single season twice before, doing so in 2008 and 2017.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
New York City FC – 46.5%
Draw – 26.5%
New York Red Bulls – 27%
'Super simple' – Lille president rules out January exit for Jonathan David
Lille president Olivier Letang has categorically ruled out a January exit for forward Jonathan David amid links with a number of European clubs.
David is out of contract at the end of the season and has been touted as a target for the likes of Bayern Munich, Juventus and Barcelona.
Speaking this week, the Canada international named Barcelona as his "dream" club but suggested he would prefer not to leave Lille mid-season.
And in an interview with After Foot RMC, Letang confirmed no bids have yet been tabled ahead of the January window.
"We are not going to sell him in January, and we have not received any offer for him," he said.
"Jonathan's situation is super simple. We are very happy to have him with us.
"Last season he had one more year left on his contract. We were trying to qualify for the Champions League.
"You have a guy who scores 20 to 25 goals a season. We had no obligation to sell him."
David is into his fifth season with Lille and has scored 97 goals in 202 games for the Ligue 1 side in all competitions while assisting a further 18.
Seven of those goals have arrived in 11 appearances this term, including in Champions League games against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Juventus.
The 24-year-old's best league season with Lille saw him score 24 goals in 2022-23, while he has netted 19, 15 and 13 in the other full campaigns.
Lille chief Letang reiterated that David has been offered a new deal to stay on at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, but selling him has never been an option.
"He is a player who scores between 20 and 25 goals and helps us qualify for the Champions League," he said.
"Plus, Jonathan loves Lille, which is his club. Our position was very clear from the beginning – we think of the athlete.
"Obviously, he already has an offer that is in his hands, the ball is in his court."
Guardiola suggests Man City's recent form played part in signing new contract
Pep Guardiola suggested Manchester City's run of four successive defeats was part of the reason for his contract extension.
The 53-year-old recently signed a two-year deal, which will run out in 2027, ending months of speculation about his future after his contract had been due to run out at the end of the campaign.
Following a 2-1 defeat to Brighton before the international break, Guardiola's side have lost each of their last four matches in all competitions for the first time in his managerial career.
"I felt I could not leave now. Maybe the four defeats was why," he told the club's website.
"I think we deserve, after four defeats in a row, to bounce back and try to turn the situation. I think we deserve to be here. I am not arrogant to say, but it's the truth."
Guardiola has led Manchester City to 18 major trophies during his nine-year stint at the club and posted a 72% win ratio.
He added that he was determined to help the club get back to a state where they are "more stable and more consistent".
"We have to recover that because right now we don't have it and that's the target we have to do," he said.
City chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak added: "Like every City fan, I am delighted that Pep's journey with Manchester City will continue, allowing his dedication, passion and innovative thinking to continue to shape the landscape of the game.
"His hunger for improvement and success remains insatiable and the direct beneficiaries of that will continue to be our players and coaching staff, the culture of our club, and the English game at large."
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