The Numbers Game: Liverpool plot revenge as Real Madrid look to continue incredible finals streak

By Sports Desk May 27, 2022

European club football's main event is almost here, with two bona fide giants of the game set to face off at the Stade de France on Saturday.

Either Real Madrid or Liverpool will be crowned champions of Europe in Paris; whichever team manages it will be providing their fans with a glorious end to a tremendous season.

Of course, Madrid did what Liverpool could not on the domestic front, as Los Blancos head into this game as LaLiga champions – the Reds ultimately missed out to Manchester City on the last day of the Premier League campaign.

But this has still been a successful season for Jurgen Klopp's side, who could yet claim a treble having already lifted the EFL Cup and FA Cup in England.

It promises to be an immense spectacle, with Opta's pre-match facts highlighting the wealth of footballing greatness that is set to be on display.

The history

Much of the build-up to this match has centred around two separate narratives of "revenge" relating to the 2018 Champions League final meeting between these two.

The first obvious desire for retribution comes simply from the fact Madrid won 3-1 in Kyiv – the other surrounds Mohamed Salah, whose match was ended early on that occasion after a collision with Sergio Ramos.

Either way, if Liverpool – and Salah – are to have their vengeance, they'll need to contend with Madrid's astonishing record: they have won each of their previous seven Champions League/European Cup finals.

To put that stat into context, no other team have even won the competition more than seven times, let alone won in seven consecutive final appearances.

But if you're looking for omens, answer this: who last beat Madrid in a European Cup/Champions League final, and where was it played?

Liverpool, in Paris (1981)…

The managers

For about 24 hours, Klopp had joined an exclusive list of managers who had reached the European Cup/Champions League final four times.

But then Carlo Ancelotti's Madrid pulled off their third great escape in as many knockout ties, meaning the Italian would set a new record for the most final appearances as a manager in UEFA's flagship competition.

But the historic achievement he'll no doubt be craving is still up for grabs.

Victory on Saturday will ensure Ancelotti is the first manager to lift the trophy four times, having won the competition in 2003, 2007 and 2014.

But here's another omen. The only club to beat an Ancelotti team in a Champions League final? That's right, Liverpool in 2005.

Nevertheless, Klopp doesn't have a particularly encouraging record against Los Blancos. He's faced them nine times in the Champions League, with his 33 per cent success rate the worst among teams he's faced at least three times.

The danger men

It would be fair to bill this match as something of a Ballon d'Or shootout.

Certainly, ahead of Saturday, the favourite is Karim Benzema, and with good reason. The France striker has enjoyed an incredible season and been central to Madrid's route to the final – he has scored 15 goals, two behind the all-time record for a single Champions League/European Cup campaign.

What helps make that such a remarkable achievement is the fact he would become the second-oldest scorer in a Champions League final (34 years, 160 days) after Paolo Maldini (36 years, 333 days) if he does net in Paris.

Madrid will likely need to keep the vengeful Salah in check, however.

Since the start of the 2017-18 season, the Egyptian has 44 Champions League goal involvements, a tally bettered only by Robert Lewandowski (55) and Kylian Mbappe (47).

If Liverpool are successful, Salah will surely become the frontrunner for the Ballon d'Or – unless Sadio Mane, who has scored three in his past four Champions League games and won the Africa Cup of Nations, has a decisive impact.

The prize

Liverpool are bidding to join Milan with seven European Cup/Champions League crowns, the second-most in the competitions' collective history.

Of course, the only team with more than seven are Madrid. Victory for them will take them to 14 titles, remarkably twice as many as any other club, a fact that really highlights their obsession with the competition.

Either way, a behemoth of European football will enjoy another memorable occasion in Paris on Saturday.

But if it's Liverpool who succeed, it'll be difficult to look at this as anything other than the early stages of English domination in the Champions League, given Premier League teams have won two of the past three already.

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  • Arsenal qualifying for Champions League quarter-finals feels 'surreal', says Slegers Arsenal qualifying for Champions League quarter-finals feels 'surreal', says Slegers

    Renee Slegers says it feels "surreal" that Arsenal have secured their place in the Champions League quarter-finals with two games to spare.

    The Gunners will finish at least second in Group C after Lina Hurtig's late strike secured a 1-0 win over Juventus on Thursday.

    What looked to be a frustrating encounter was turned around by Slegers' substitutions, and after missing a glorious chance, Hurtig was eventually the difference at the Emirates.

    Arsenal created 3.69 expected goals (xG) from their nine shots, getting three on target, compared to just 0.5 for Juventus, who tested Daphne van Domselaar the same amount of times.

    Slegers was impressed by her side's resilience as they pushed to come away with all three points.

    "It's surreal to be honest," Slegers said post-match. "I never felt we would get into this situation. We have done really well.

    "I was part of Jonas [Eidevall's] staff and there was so much that was built during his time. I don't want to separate that. There is so much we are still building on. It's surreal in so many ways but we are very happy.

    "I'm just happy for the team to win. Obviously, we have amazing depth in the squad, and we know anyone can do it for us - whether it's starting players or finishing players.

    "It's the visualisation of how much everyone contributes in the team. I think that's what it means for us."

    Slegers took over as interim manager following Jonas Eidevall's departure last month and has gone unbeaten in her first seven games, winning six and drawing one.

    They have won each of their last five in all competitions, and have not conceded a goal in their previous four matches.

    "It was just a very impressive block of the team," Slegers said. "We conceded only one goal during this whole block, so defensively very solid.

    "The players have been stepping up big time, they've been owning this; we tried to relay it back to them all the time, so giving them the ownership.

    "I'm just very happy with how the block has been, different challenges along the way, so all games have asked something different from us. We've responded to that really well, sticking to our identity but also playing the game that's ahead of us."

  • Arsenal qualifying for Champions League quarter-finals feel surreal, says Slegers Arsenal qualifying for Champions League quarter-finals feel surreal, says Slegers

    Renee Slegers says it feels "surreal" that Arsenal have secured their place in the Champions League quarter-finals with two games to spare.

    The Gunners will finish at least second in Group C after Lina Hurtig's late strike secured a 1-0 win over Juventus on Thursday.

    What looked to be a frustrating encounter was turned around by Slegers' substitutions, and after missing a glorious chance, Hurtig was eventually the difference at the Emirates.

    Arsenal created 3.69 expected goals (xG) from their nine shots, getting three on target, compared to just 0.5 for Juventus, who tested Daphne van Domselaar the same amount of times.

    Slegers was impressed by her side's resilience as they pushed to come away with all three points.

    "It's surreal to be honest," Slegers said post-match. "I never felt we would get into this situation. We have done really well.

    "I was part of Jonas [Eidevall's] staff and there was so much that was built during his time. I don't want to separate that. There is so much we are still building on. It's surreal in so many ways but we are very happy.

    "I'm just happy for the team to win. Obviously, we have amazing depth in the squad, and we know anyone can do it for us - whether it's starting players or finishing players.

    "It's the visualisation of how much everyone contributes in the team. I think that's what it means for us."

    Slegers took over as interim manager following Jonas Eidevall's departure last month and has gone unbeaten in her first seven games, winning six and drawing one.

    They have won each of their last five in all competitions, and have not conceded a goal in their previous four matches.

    "It was just a very impressive block of the team," Slegers said. "We conceded only one goal during this whole block, so defensively very solid.

    "The players have been stepping up big time, they've been owning this; we tried to relay it back to them all the time, so giving them the ownership.

    "I'm just very happy with how the block has been, different challenges along the way, so all games have asked something different from us. We've responded to that really well, sticking to our identity but also playing the game that's ahead of us."

  • Gravenberch ready to show off Liverpool form ‘to the world’, says Gakpo Gravenberch ready to show off Liverpool form ‘to the world’, says Gakpo

    Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo expressed his pride in seeing compatriot Ryan Gravenberch show off his qualities ‘to the whole world’ after a fine start to the Premier League season.

    Though the Netherlands pair did not become teammates at Liverpool until late summer of 2023, Gakpo knew well Gravenberch’s talents from their respective Eredivisie spells with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax.

    Now in his second season at Anfield, Gravenberch has drawn widespread plaudits for his form in a new deeper-lying midfield role under new head coach Arne Slot, having largely been used as a substitute under Jurgen Klopp.

    Gravenberch is the only midfielder in Europe's big-five leagues to both make 30+ tackles (30) and 30+ interceptions (33) in all competitions this season, and Gakpo insisted that his Netherlands team-mate can continue to go from strength to strength, starting against Southampton this Sunday.

    “We [the Dutchmen at Liverpool] knew Ryan already from the Eredivisie when he played at Ajax, and I think everybody knew already that he is this good,” Gakpo recently told Men in Blazers.

    “After that, he made a move to Bayern Munich, and maybe he didn’t play that much over there, but still everybody in Holland knew how good he could be when he was playing.

    “And I think maybe the manager [Slot] also knew this. At the beginning of the season, he put him in a slightly different position, but he gave him the confidence to play there.

    “Ryan showed his quality in that position, grabbed his chance as well and turned out to be a good match. He is playing outstandingly for us this season.

    “I’m very happy that we can see Ryan, as we Dutchmen already knew, but now he can show it to the whole world. I’m very proud of him.”

    Southampton, meanwhile, welcome the Reds to St. Mary’s on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Wolves ahead of the international break, leaving them bottom of the table after 11 games of the season.

    The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.

    However, the Southampton head coach is relishing the opportunity of facing Liverpool, with his players performing well against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City already this term.

    "I'm really excited about Sunday. We're playing the best team in the country at the moment, on their current form and what they have been doing with their manager, built on an incredible foundation from the previous manager, so I'm really looking forward to it,” Martin said.

    "I think we showed the guys the Premier League table last season and how much it changed by the end and by the end of December. But it's honestly such an exciting month.

    "People talk about the difficulty of the game and every competition we face in the next four or five games, but it's what we all worked so hard for. We should be excited about the challenge.  

    “I think teams have shown in the last few weeks that you can pick up big results against big teams, good opposition, and we are going to have to. Our level of performance against teams at the top end of the table has been good on the whole."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Southampton – Mateus Fernandes

    Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.

    In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.

    Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

    Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.

    He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

    MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN

    Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).

    The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.

    Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.

    This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.

    However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.

    But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Southampton – 9.7%

    Draw – 12.6%

    Liverpool – 77.7%

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