Regardless of what occurs on the pitch at the Stade de France on Saturday, the 2021-22 season will have been a good one for Real Madrid.
Even if they are ultimately left with only the Spanish top-flight title to show for their efforts, there's an argument to be made that Carlo Ancelotti has defied expectations in his first campaign back at the Santiago Bernabeu.
Given the important losses of Raphael Varane and Sergio Ramos coupled with the fact only two new players were incoming, it would've been understandable if fans were less demanding than usual in their pre-season predictions.
After all, Ancelotti was seen as a safe pair of hands rather than someone who was going to come in, shake things up and preside over a philosophical overhaul – and looking back over the course of the season, he's been the perfect appointment.
Of course, the turmoil at Barcelona helped Madrid's cause, while Atletico Madrid's title defence fell flat early on. For a while Sevilla looked to be the only challengers to Los Blancos, but given they ran out of steam in the previous campaign, it's unlikely Ancelotti and his team will have been unduly worried by them – they ended up scraping a top-four spot.
As composed and dominant as Madrid were at LaLiga's summit, fans, pundits and journalists alike did go searching for potential weaknesses, or reasons for the chasing pack not to give up hope.
One area that appeared to be brought up more than most was rotation and the risk of burnout.
Full steam ahead
Between the start of the season and the end of December, six Madrid players had featured for more than 1,400 minutes in LaLiga. There are no surprises in this list: they would be considered the majority of the team's core players.
In the same period, only Espanyol (seven) had more players feature for at least 1,400 minutes in LaLiga, but they didn't also have Champions League football to contend with. Sevilla had three players meet the criteria; Barcelona had two and Atletico Madrid just one, goalkeeper Jan Oblak.
Similarly, Madrid named the same starting XI three times in LaLiga this season. While that doesn't sound a lot, only Celta Vigo, Getafe, Athletic Bilbao and Osasuna have done so more often.
It's clear to see Madrid have relied on a bigger group of core players than their rivals, and as such concerns about fatigue appeared astute earlier in the season.
But here we are, right at the end of the campaign: Madrid won LaLiga with four games to spare and are preparing to play in the Champions League final – and their route to this stage has relied on the ability to laugh in the face of fatigue, with Los Blancos coming back from the brink three times.
In that sense, you have to praise Ancelotti's squad management. Whether their lack of injuries has been by design or a fluke is difficult to speculate about, but there's clearly an element of Ancelotti swiftly establishing his preferred XI and then only wavering from it when absolutely necessary.
And when he did have to look elsewhere, there's no doubting who his favourites were.
Rodrygo and Eduardo Camavinga have come off the bench 23 times each across all competitions this season, the joint-most in the Madrid squad.
Granted, it's not as if they're two hopefuls promoted from the academy – both were expensive additions to the squad. But the frequency Ancelotti has turned to them as substitutes shows his belief in them to either carry out his instructions or make a difference.
Nowhere was that clearer than in the latter stages of the Champions League. Five of Camavinga's nine appearances in this season's competition have been in the knockouts, while Rodrygo has come off the bench four times in Europe since the turn of the year.
The latter has, understandably, taken a lot of plaudits in the second half of this season. He scored the vital aggregate equaliser against Chelsea, the brace that flipped the City tie on its head, and was inspirational off the bench away to Sevilla in the 3-2 win that essentially wrapped up the title.
Before the turn of the year, Rodrygo appeared to be struggling for relevance at Madrid. There will have been some wondering if he had a long-term future at the club, but he knuckled down after Christmas and has become a genuine weapon, seemingly embracing the fact you can still be decisive even off the bench.
On a per-90-minute basis, he heads into Saturday's game ranked fourth at Madrid for open-play chances created (1.4) and goals (0.34), joint-second for assists (0.34, behind Benzema on 0.35) and third for shots (2.4). He's beginning to show his worth.
Ancelotti's choice
Some might have generally expected more from Camavinga since joining from Rennes last year. He's not been able to establish himself as a regular in midfield at the expense of his more senior colleagues, perhaps unsurprising given he lacks the metronomic abilities of Toni Kroos and Luka Modric and the grit of Casemiro. However, his impact shouldn't be overlooked.
In the second-leg clashes against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Manchester City, every single one of Madrid's eight goals came after Camavinga's introduction. Those goals ensured Ancelotti's men produced great escapes in each tie.
In fact, over the 146 minutes both Camavinga and Rodrygo have been on the pitch in the Champions League in 2022, Madrid have scored eight times and conceded none. Over 502 minutes without at least one of them on the pitch, they've scored six and let in 11.
Of course, it's not as if Camavinga himself has been a central figure to all eight goals. His importance in these scenarios is more centred on the wide-ranging skillset he instantly brings to Madrid – he can pass, he's confident on the ball and is a hard-working competitor.
His contributions were notable in all three second legs, but it was against City when he really forced people to sit up and acknowledge him. In the three and a half minutes that followed his 75th-minute entrance, Camavinga showed his poise with a nice switch of play, swept up effectively in midfield as Phil Foden looked to pounce on a loose ball, and then tackled Rodri out wide.
He was happy to accept possession under pressure several times, with one occasion seeing him turn and lift a wonderful pass over the City defence in the 82nd minute as Karim Benzema tested Ederson in goal. A minute later he was darting back in pursuit of Bernardo Silva, ultimately producing an exceptional sliding tackle to win the ball back.
Camavinga then played a vital role in Madrid's first goal in the 90th minute. His inch-perfect lofted pass to the back post allowed Benzema to turn the ball into the danger zone where Rodrygo was on hand to flick home.
Rodrygo's second in quick succession forced extra time, and Camavinga helped bring about Madrid's crucial third. It was he who carried the ball over half the length of the pitch before finding the Brazilian to cross towards Benzema, who won the penalty from Ruben Dias.
But he showed his value off the ball as well. His four tackles from 45 minutes on the pitch was bettered by only Federico Valverde (five) among Madrid players, and he played the full 120.
His showing was another reminder of the supreme talent Madrid brought in last year and, for many it might've even been enough to earn a starting spot in the final.
Both Camavinga and Rodrygo certainly deserve at least the chance to impact proceedings in Paris, but don't expect Ancelotti to lose faith in his preferred XI at this stage.
Gravenberch ready to show off Liverpool form ‘to the world’, says Gakpo
Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo expressed his pride in seeing compatriot Ryan Gravenberch show off his qualities ‘to the whole world’ after a fine start to the Premier League season.
Though the Netherlands pair did not become teammates at Liverpool until late summer of 2023, Gakpo knew well Gravenberch’s talents from their respective Eredivisie spells with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax.
Now in his second season at Anfield, Gravenberch has drawn widespread plaudits for his form in a new deeper-lying midfield role under new head coach Arne Slot, having largely been used as a substitute under Jurgen Klopp.
Gravenberch is the only midfielder in Europe's big-five leagues to both make 30+ tackles (30) and 30+ interceptions (33) in all competitions this season, and Gakpo insisted that his Netherlands team-mate can continue to go from strength to strength, starting against Southampton this Sunday.
“We [the Dutchmen at Liverpool] knew Ryan already from the Eredivisie when he played at Ajax, and I think everybody knew already that he is this good,” Gakpo recently told Men in Blazers.
“After that, he made a move to Bayern Munich, and maybe he didn’t play that much over there, but still everybody in Holland knew how good he could be when he was playing.
“And I think maybe the manager [Slot] also knew this. At the beginning of the season, he put him in a slightly different position, but he gave him the confidence to play there.
“Ryan showed his quality in that position, grabbed his chance as well and turned out to be a good match. He is playing outstandingly for us this season.
“I’m very happy that we can see Ryan, as we Dutchmen already knew, but now he can show it to the whole world. I’m very proud of him.”
Southampton, meanwhile, welcome the Reds to St. Mary’s on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Wolves ahead of the international break, leaving them bottom of the table after 11 games of the season.
The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.
However, the Southampton head coach is relishing the opportunity of facing Liverpool, with his players performing well against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City already this term.
"I'm really excited about Sunday. We're playing the best team in the country at the moment, on their current form and what they have been doing with their manager, built on an incredible foundation from the previous manager, so I'm really looking forward to it,” Martin said.
"I think we showed the guys the Premier League table last season and how much it changed by the end and by the end of December. But it's honestly such an exciting month.
"People talk about the difficulty of the game and every competition we face in the next four or five games, but it's what we all worked so hard for. We should be excited about the challenge.
“I think teams have shown in the last few weeks that you can pick up big results against big teams, good opposition, and we are going to have to. Our level of performance against teams at the top end of the table has been good on the whole."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Southampton – Mateus Fernandes
Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.
In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.
He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).
The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.
Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.
This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.
However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.
But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Southampton – 9.7%
Draw – 12.6%
Liverpool – 77.7%
Taylor proud of 'gritty' Man City display in Hammarby victory
Gareth Taylor was pleased with how his Manchester City players handled the atmosphere against Hammarby to secure their passage into the Champions League quarter-finals.
Khadija Shaw opened the scoring in the 31st minute before Ellen Wangerheim restored parity shortly after the interval with a finish from close range.
But Shaw continued her fine start to the campaign, scoring the winner to become City's all-time top scorer in the competition, surpassing Georgia Stanway and Janine Beckie (both six).
The result saw City make it to the last eight of the competition for the first time since 2021, though the encounter was far from comfortable at the Tele2 Arena on Thursday.
Hammarby ended the contest with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.15 compared to the visitors' 1.07, despite both sides having 14 shots throughout the match.
However, City maintained their unbeaten record against Swedish sides in the competitor (W6), and Taylor was proud of his side's "gritty" display in Stockholm.
“I’m really pleased. It was about qualification for us tonight," Taylor said.
"There were a couple of ways we could do it. Obviously, we knew a point was enough, but I don’t think the players were thinking that way.
“It was a really gritty performance on a really difficult on this pitch. It probably doesn’t look like that for the viewers at home watching it.
"But it was a really lively surface and we worked so hard.
“I felt there were some areas we could control the play better. I have to give credit to Hammarby, they were really aggressive.
"The referee was on our side a little bit in the first half and maybe not in the second.
“I’m really pleased and proud of the players, they really dug in tonight. You come away from a hostile environment with a win.”
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
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