Cincinnati Bengals

Arguably the best kicker of his generation, Tucker converted all four of his field-goal attempts in the contest, also hitting from 25 yards, 37 yards and a 58-yarder in the third quarter to take the lead out of the halftime break.

Things were tied at 10-10 at the midpoint after touchdown catches from both featured tight ends, with Baltimore's Mark Andrews benefitting from a busted coverage to walk in with an easy 11-yard score, before Hayden Hurst answered right back with a 19-yard touchdown reception for the Bengals later in the second quarter.

There would be no more touchdowns until Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow converted a goal-line sneak in the first play out of the two-minute warning to take a 17-16 lead, leaving the Ravens one minute and 58 seconds to drive down into field-goal range.

After struggling to move the ball all night, the Ravens made their last drive look easy, with a couple of catches for Andrews followed by a 19-yard run by Lamar Jackson to push their way to the 25-yard line, where they would run down the clock for the final kick.

After nailing the kick, it improved Tucker's record on game-deciding field goals (in the final two minutes or overtime to tie or take the lead) to 25 out of 26 (96 per cent).

Jackson finished up completing 19 of 32 passes for 174 yards, one touchdown and one interception, while also leading the Ravens in rushing with 12 carries for 58 yards.

Mathieu suffered a concussion in the Chiefs' thrilling 42-36 win over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last Sunday.

But multiple reports suggest the safety will feature for the Chiefs when they host the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.

Mathieu led the Chiefs with three interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown, during the regular season.

His tally of 13 interceptions since joining the Chiefs in 2019 is tied for the second-most among safeties, trailing only Justin Simmons (14) of the Denver Broncos.

With Joe Burrow sacked nine times in the Bengals' win over the Tennessee Titans last week, the Chiefs will hope pressure on the quarterback can lead to turnover opportunities for the likes of Mathieu.

Though he has been accurate under pressure with a well-thrown ball percentage of 81.1, which is the best in the NFL (min. 100 attempts) in those circumstances, Burrow has produced nine pickable passes for his 143 attempts under duress.

His pickable pass percentage of 6.29 under pressure is inferior to the average of 5.53 per cent for quarterbacks with at least 100 such throws.

Hill was not flagged for flashing the peace sign at a collection of Buffalo Bills defenders as he left them for dead while scoring a 64-yard touchdown in the Chiefs' remarkable 42-36 victory in the Divisional Round last Sunday.

That score marked one of the five lead changes after the two-minute warning in a contest viewed as one of the greatest in the history of the NFL playoffs.

While the officials on the field at the time did not see fit to penalise Hill for taunting, it was revealed on Saturday he was fined over $10,000 by the league for his actions in the act of scoring.

Hill and the Chiefs are heavy favourites to see off the Bengals and progress to a third successive Super Bowl.

However, after holding the Tennessee Titans to 16 points in their Divisional Round triumph, Cincinnati will look to keep Hill in check.

The Bengals did just that in their Week 17 win over the Chiefs, holding him to six catches for 40 yards.

And Cincinnati safety Vonn Bell made it clear earlier this week that the Bengals are ready for the test posed by Kansas City's speed on offense.

"They've got speed. They've got [Mecole] Hardman and they've got [Byron] Pringle, they've got [Hill]," Bell said. "It brings a lot of problems because it stretches you vertically. [Because] you want to take away these vertical threats and everything underneath.

"You've got [Jerick] McKinnon, you got [Clyde Edwards-Helaire] back, you got Travis [Kelce] sitting underneath in the soft of the zone. It was just like, 'Man, everybody's back deep and he's just by himself.' You've got to respect the speed, because it's like a roadrunner, we call them, and they just keep on rolling.

"That's why this team is so dynamic. You got guys like Hardman and [Hill] that can line up anywhere, backfield, anywhere they could do punt returns and they can create explosives everywhere. It's a unique group that they have, and it's a challenge for sure. We rise up to it and we're ready to take it on for sure."

Smith developed life-threatening sepsis and required 17 surgeries to prevent his leg from being amputated after the veteran quarterback suffered a compound fracture of his tibia and fibula two years ago.

The 36-year-old returned to action last month, and he produced an efficient display in just his second start of the season to lead Washington to a 20-9 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

Smith completed 17 of 25 passes for 166 yards, a touchdown and an interception as Washington improved to 3-7 for the season.

"Another step, another thing I never thought I'd be doing again," three-time Pro Bowler Smith said.

"It's one thing to come out and get that first playing time and a whole other deal to play winning football as a starter. It's amazing to get a win."

Smith set career highs in attempts (55), completions (38) and yards (390), while he did not turn over the ball in the loss to the Detroit Lions last week.

Through four appearances in 2020, Smith has completed 88 of 129 passes for 918 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions.

Washington head coach Rivera added: "When a guy like Alex who has gone through what he has gets this opportunity to get back on the field and play well, that's pretty cool."

The Steelers suffered their first season sweep at the hands of the Bengals since 2009 on Sunday, stretching their winless run to three games.

The humbling defeat leaves the Steelers 5-5-1 but still within striking distance of the final AFC Wild Card spot, which is currently possessed by the Los Angeles Chargers, who defeated Pittsburgh 41-37 in Week 11.

Bengals running back Joe Mixon gashed the Steelers for 165 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Steelers have given up an average of 180.5 yards on the ground over the last four games.

Though they are still in the mix for the playoffs, star edge rusher Watt knows that will change if they cannot stem the tide on defense.

"It wasn't something any of us are proud of," Watt said. "You never want to have that feeling coming out of a game. We put it on tape and now we have to own it, move forward and know that everybody sees what just happened and what we can expect moving forward.

"We have to stop this before it continues to unravel and become a bigger issue than what it already is. We can't keep playing like this. It's absolutely embarrassing.

"We're trying to solve it and clearly we're not doing a good enough job. We have to go back to the film and everyone has to look at the film and watch themselves critically and figure out how to stop this thing because it's continuous."

Head coach Mike Tomlin shared Watt's sentiments.

"It's alarming, it is," Tomlin said of the amount of points conceded. "We're not trying to play it cool by any stretch.

"We don't play football like that, but we have been our last couple of weeks, so some adjustments need to be made."

The Steelers' final six games are all against playoff contenders. They face the Baltimore Ravens twice and also have games with the Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns.

And veteran defensive lineman Cameron Heyward is under no illusion as to how those games will turn out if the Steelers cannot make said adjustments.

Asked if this is the worst Steelers defense he has been a part of since being drafted in 2011, Heyward replied: "I don't know, I'm probably going to say yes.

"I don't look at the past. All I can do is worry about the present. There's a lot of football to be played, but if we do what we did out there today, we won't win another damn game."

After starting the NFL season 11-0, the Steelers slumped to a third straight loss, beaten 27-17 by rivals the Bengals on Monday.

Pittsburgh were on an 11-match winning streak over Cincinnati, but fell to defeat to leave the AFC North up for grabs.

Steelers head coach Tomlin lamented his side's performance at Paul Brown Stadium as Pittsburgh became the first team in NFL history to lose multiple games in which they entered with 11-plus wins and their opponents had four or fewer.

"Just not good enough for us," he told a news conference.

"The performance speaks for itself. We turned the ball over at the early portions of the game, you can't do that, you can't do that versus anybody. We gave them the short field three times in the first half or so and so it was an uphill battle the rest of the way because of that.

"They were able to hide the ball a little bit because of those circumstances. I thought they had a good plan. You've got to tip your cap to them, particularly with some of the quarterback design runs, they were able to keep us off balance and minimise some of the things that we were able to do on possession downs so I want to give them credit, but largely we've got a lot of work to do.

"We're not a good football group right now and so we understand the consequences that come with that, we're working on a short week, we've got to be better than what we've been and that's just the reality of it."

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger struggled, completing 20 of 38 passes for 170 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

Roethlisberger became the seventh quarterback in NFL history to reach 60,000 passing yards, but he was well below his best.

"It's not injury related. It just wasn't good enough, like all of us, me included. We've got to be better," Tomlin said about his QB.

Roethlisberger also said he needed to improve, telling reporters: "Their whole defense kept us off balance. I wasn't good enough."

The AFC is a jumbled mess with no clear frontrunner, though the Tennessee Titans may feel differently after surging to the top of the conference with a 7-2 record. 

In the NFC, it is easier to discern the elite, but picking the teams who will claim the last two Wild Card spots from a crowded field is not a simple task.

What we can do, however, is look at the standings and see which teams are either over or underperforming.

Stats Perform has done just that by assessing the records of every team compared to their power rating, a model that, using X-info data, looks at seven different facets of each team: quarterback, offensive skill players, run blocking, pass blocking, pass rush, run defense and pass coverage, and the player rates associated with each.

These seven facets are weighted according to modelled importance, and then aggregated to a team-level rating.

And that process has produced some clear standouts who either have more wins than the model suggests they deserve or are failing to live up to its expectations.

Overperforming

New Orleans Saints – Power rating: 29th

If Sean Payton isn't getting Coach of the Year hype come the end of the season, something has gone severely wrong.

Payton has the Saints in position to claim an NFC Wild Card berth at 5-3 despite a quarterback situation most would struggle to overcome, with Trevor Siemian stepping in to replace the injured Jameis Winston.

The Saints' most pressing issue beyond signal-caller is at wide receiver. Their most targeted receiver, Marquez Callaway, is registering a burn – or, in other words, winning his matchup with his defender when targeted – 56.4 per cent of the time, below the average of 60.6 for wideouts (min. 10 targets).

That has led New Orleans to lean on running back Alvin Kamara and the defense.

Kamara is unsurprisingly making the most of his significant opportunities as a receiver, his big-play percentage of 23.6 fourth among backs with at least 10 targets.

The defense is allowing a league-low 3.19 yards per carry and leads the NFL in run disruption rate, but comparative struggles against the pass (6.92 yards per play) and in getting after the quarterback could spell trouble if Siemian cannot maintain a surprisingly strong start to his time under center.

Cincinnati Bengals – Power rating: 23rd

The Bengals have been brought back down to earth with a bump over the past two games, losing to the New York Jets before being blown out by the Cleveland Browns.

First in the AFC before that slump, they are now last in the AFC North but, with a 5-4 record, they can still be considered to be outperforming expectations.

The problem area for the Bengals continues to be the trenches. Joe Burrow has been sacked eight times over the past two games, Cincinnati's struggles up front reflected by a ranking of 21st in pass protection win rate.

Things have been worse up front on defense, the Bengals 30th in pass rush win rate despite the best efforts of Trey Hendrickson, who has beaten a pass blocker on 28 of his 43 pressures.

Burrow has the best percentage of well-thrown balls among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. He is delivering an accurate pass on 84.4 per cent of attempts.

His second-year leap is no mirage and has been aided by the outstanding rookie season of former LSU team-mate Ja'Marr Chase, eighth among receivers (min. 50 targets) with 3.5 burn yards per route. Yet, without improvement in other areas, elevating the Bengals back to the postseason could prove too much of a challenge for that truly dynamic duo.

Arizona Cardinals – Power rating: 16th

The Cardinals being this low down the list may be difficult to reconcile given they are 8-1 and just convincingly beat the San Francisco 49ers with their backup quarterback.

Yet holes have emerged on a defense now without J.J. Watt, whose addition had proven so critical to the interior of the D-line.

Arizona's defense is allowing 4.81 yards per rush, the second-most in the NFL, with the Cardinals in 22nd in run disruption rate.

Their pass rush win rate position of 24th belies the production of Markus Golden (nine sacks) and Chandler Jones (six), with those numbers suggesting the Cardinals' strength against the pass is more a product of the impressive play of a secondary that has surpassed expectations.

Though there is reason for doubt when it comes to the Cardinals' defense, this is a team that will go as far as Kyler Murray and the offense.

Murray is firmly in the MVP mix with a well-thrown percentage of 81.3, and receivers DeAndre Hopkins (80.9) and Christian Kirk (79.2) are each in the top five among wideouts (min. 10 targets) for burn rate.

With an offensive line ranked eighth in pass protection win rate doing an excellent job of keeping Murray clean, the Cards have an offensive recipe well suited to winning in 2021.

Yet their power rating and performance on defense indicates this team is not as complete as their record suggests.

Tennessee Titans – Power rating: 18th

Five straight wins, including victories over the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams, and the Titans are only 18th?!

It may be difficult to believe, but Tennessee's position in the bottom half of the NFL by power rating is one mirrored by the Titans' spot in Stats Perform's Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE) rankings.

EVE looks at several factors to train a model to predict yardage output for any game situation and then compares the projected yards to the actual yards gained or prevented in those situations.

The Titans are a disappointing 17th in EVE, despite Ryan Tannehill enjoying a season that has seen him deliver an accurate well-thrown ball on 83.5 per cent of his passes.

But Tannehill is now without his security blanket with Derrick Henry, who was threatening Eric Dickerson's rushing record and averaging 3.05 yards per carry on disrupted runs, and is throwing to a receiving corps that has just one member, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (63.6), with a burn percentage above 60.

Their stunning primetime win in Los Angeles was largely a product of turnovers and a startling amount of pressure from the defensive front, and the latter appears unlikely to be sustainable.

In the bottom half of the league in pass rush win rate (31st) and run disruption rate (27th), the production the Titans have got from the likes of Harold Landry, Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons has not been the result of consistent dominance up front.

The story is the same for an offensive line ranked 29th in pass protection and 17th in run block win rate. Beyond Tannehill and Henry, areas where the Titans consistently excel are not obvious. The receivers will need to step up or the defense will need to prove a breakout performance against the Rams was not an anomaly for Tennessee to turn the doubters into believers.

Underperforming

Kansas City Chiefs – Power rating: 3rd

The uneven nature of the Chiefs' performances to this point makes them moving to 5-4 last week actually seem pretty impressive.

Yet, for all their issues on defense, and the doubts about an offense lacking the explosiveness of years gone by, the Chiefs should have fared even better over the first nine games, at least according to their power rating.

Though Kansas City only managed 13 points in their win over the Green Bay Packers, it is the Chiefs' offense that provides the most cause for optimism.

Patrick Mahomes' well-thrown percentage of 79 is above the league average of 78.5 for quarterbacks with a minimum of 10 attempts, and he is being well protected by the Chiefs' reworked offensive line.

The Chiefs rank fourth in pass protection win rate and first in run block win rate, with their rushing average of 4.62 yards per play the eighth-best in the NFL.

It is those game-changing downfield shots that are conspicuous by their absence for the Chiefs, with Tyreek Hill's underwhelming big-play percentage of 24.8 illustrating their struggles in that regard.

But this remains a team set up for offensive success, and if a defense that has not allowed a 300-yard passing game since Week 5 can continue making incremental improvements, Kansas City could yet enjoy the season many envisioned.

San Francisco 49ers – Power rating: 8th

A route to contention is not as easy to plot for the 3-5 49ers, who continue to beat themselves with mistakes that negate their overall efficiency.

The 49ers are eighth in EVE, with their position in offensive yards over expected (eighth) and yards allowed under expected (14th) painting the picture of a top-half team on both sides of the ball.

Yet a turnover differential of -9 that is superior to only that of the New York Jets (-12) makes a losing season a more realistic possibility for the Niners than a playoff push.

The offense is the primary source of hope. Deebo Samuel is on pace for over 1,800 receiving yards and his 4.1 burn yards per route are second for receivers with at least 50 targets, while George Kittle had a 100-yard game on his return from injury last week and ranks second among tight ends (min. 10 targets) with 3.1 burn yards per route.

With rookie Elijah Mitchell impressing at running back, Brandon Aiyuk emerging from Kyle Shanahan's doghouse and a line ranked in the top 10 in pass protection and run block win rate, the Niners theoretically have the offense to compete with anyone.

Poor execution has prevented them from doing so. If the Niners are to somehow stay in the hunt, the turnovers must stop, but change is also required on defense.

The 49ers have struggled to disrupt the run, and disappointing secondary play has limited the impact of a stellar season from Nick Bosa, whose adjusted pass rush win rate of 41.09 per cent is way above the average of 21.88 for edge rushers.

Time is running out for San Francisco to figure it out; if the Niners cannot do that, it will be another frustrating year for a team too talented to be struggling this much.

Minnesota Vikings – Power rating: 10th

It has been a typical Vikings season, with a talented and potent offense seeing their efforts go largely unrewarded as they have flirted with both triumph and disaster late in games on a near-weekly basis.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins might have an MVP case were the Vikings in a better position to contend. He has been extremely accurate, posting a well-thrown percentage of 81.8, and has generally avoided turnover-worthy plays, throwing just four pickable passes on 285 attempts.

Dalvin Cook's missed tackle per touch rate of 0.269 is the best among running backs with at least 50 carries, and Justin Jefferson is again one of the league's elite separators at receiver, as evidenced by his burn rate of 72.1 per cent.

Yet the Vikings are only 13th in offensive yards over expected, speaking to an issue that continues to hold this team back, with Minnesota again in the lower reaches of the league in pass protection win rate.

It has been a different story on the other side of the trenches, the Vikings seventh in pass rush win rate, though the absence of Danielle Hunter with a torn pectoral muscle may see them lose that position.

Soft against the run, allowing the third-highest yards per rush (4.77) in the NFL, the Vikings are a team whose lofty power rating is easily explained through a loaded passing game and a pass rush that has excelled through their first eight games.

But their 3-5 record is reflective of an incomplete team that maintains an obvious weakness in the trenches and lacks the defensive solidity to put games to bed. The Vikings may be a top 10 team on paper, but it is tough to trust them to perform to that standard consistently.

A banged-up offensive line that was dramatically overmatched against the Buccaneers' defensive front in their chastening February defeat in Tampa had been seemingly fixed by what looked an astute investment in both youth and experience in the trenches. Kansas City appeared poised to reassert themselves as a dominant power.

Yet the issue with using your resources primarily on one area is that other concerns can be swept under the rug, only to rear their head when attention turns back to competitive action.

That has proven the case for the Chiefs, who at 3-4 look anything but Super Bowl contenders, with a disappointing pass rush and the consistently poor play of an extremely vulnerable secondary resulting in a defensive performance that has seen them give up a league-high 6.57 yards per play.

Their defensive struggles have come combined with turnover problems for Patrick Mahomes and Co, meaning the Chiefs are some way short of the team that reached three successive AFC Championship Games.

Indeed, Kansas City entered Week 8 ranked 27th in Stats Perform's efficiency versus expected (EVE) model, which looks at down, distance, yards from goal, quarter, time remaining, and score difference and uses those six factors to train a model to predict yardage output for any game situation. From there, the projected yards are compared to the actual yards gained or prevented in those situations.

With the Chiefs performing at the level of a bottom-half team and arguably facing a make-or-break game against the New York Giants on Monday to even stay in the mix, who are the lead contenders for the Super Bowl? Stats Perform looked at the EVE rankings to identify the two AFC and NFC favourites.

AFC

1. Buffalo Bills

The Bills entered Week 8 ranked second by overall EVE, their drop from the top spot a result of them having a bye in Week 7.

At 4-2, the Bills have work to do to secure the top seed in the conference, but they have a compelling case for being the most complete team in the AFC.

Eighth in yards over expected on offensive plays, their average of 0.593 yards over the projected was bettered by only three AFC teams ahead of Week 8.

Meanwhile, on defense, the Bills are allowing 0.788 yards under expected, which put them second in the league behind the New Orleans Saints prior to Thursday Night Football.

Their ranking and their performances have served as a reflection of quarterback Josh Allen's ability to prove his gargantuan year-three leap was no fluke and the significant strides made by the defense through six games.

Six of the Bills' final 11 games are against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league via EVE, giving them a clear opportunity to recover from early slip-ups against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans and establish themselves as the cream of the AFC crop.

2. Cincinnati Bengals

However, the gold standard of the AFC and - according to EVE - of the league as a whole are the Cincinnati Bengals.

That is not a sentence many will have expected to read after Cincinnati's first seven games but, in a tightly packed conference, they are worthy of consideration as genuine contenders to go all the way.

Their position atop the league by EVE is built on an offense that is fifth overall with a yards-over-expected average of 0.699, the best in the AFC, and a defense ascending earlier than anticipated.

The Bengals are third in the NFL in yards allowed under expected, though they figure to be sternly tested on both sides of the ball down the stretch.

Indeed, the Bengals have two games against a Browns team ranked third overall as well as meetings with another top-10 team in the Las Vegas Raiders and a 2-4 San Francisco 49ers team whose ranking of 13th is not reflected by their record.

A rematch with the Baltimore Ravens and an offense that entered the week seventh in yards over expected looms in Week 16 and that slightly more difficult road compared to the Bills makes it tough to install the Bengals as AFC favourites.

There can ill-afford to be any let-up from Joe Burrow - fifth among quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts with a well-thrown ball percentage of 82.4 - and dominant rookie wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase if the Bengals are to emerge as a legitimate threat to win it all, but their Week 7 win thrashing of the Ravens suggests they will be undaunted by the challenge.

NFC

1. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams' bet that Matthew Stafford's arrival would take them to the next level is proving a successful one to this point, with Los Angeles 6-1 and looking every bit a team ready to make a concerted push to play in a Super Bowl in their home stadium.

Sean McVay's team went into Week 8 fourth in EVE and as the class of the NFC, despite their heavy home defeat to the Arizona Cardinals back in Week 4.

After the malaise of Jared Goff's final year as quarterback, Stafford has elevated the offense to one that trailed only the Dallas Cowboys in yards over expected with an average of 0.965 pre Week 8.

That lift has been crucial in a year where the defense has, perhaps unsurprisingly, taken something of a downturn following offseason losses in the secondary and the departure of coordinator Brandon Staley.

Yet the Rams remain a top-half team on that side of the ball (11th in yards allowed under expected) and face a schedule that sees them take on just two top-10 teams by EVE the rest of the way.

They do have two games with a 49ers team the Rams have not beaten since 2018 but, analysing what they have produced so far and the tests to come for the Rams, it is difficult to envision an NFC Championship Game in which they do not feature.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Cardinals are the second-highest ranked NFC team after the Rams by EVE, occupying fifth spot overall prior to their defeat to the Green Bay Packers on Thursday.

Despite their 7-1 record, it is tough to make a case for the Cardinals over the defending champion Buccaneers, who approached Week 8 only just behind Arizona in sixth and have the benefit of an easier run-in.

In addition to facing those strange but potentially dangerous – if they ever put it together – 49ers in Week 9, the Cardinals must face the Rams again and have a meeting with a Cowboys team whose league-leading offensive effort had them ninth in EVE following the last slate of games.

While the Buccaneers have the significant challenge of facing the Bills in Week 14, a New Orleans Saints team 24th in offensive yards over expected are the only other remaining opponent on Tampa Bay's schedule in the EVE top 10.

The Bucs are 20 places higher than New Orleans on that side of the ball, with Tom Brady in the MVP conversation having thrown a league-leading 21 touchdowns through seven games.

Trust in the 44-year-old Brady and this Bucs offense continues to grow. By contrast, there are likely to be plenty of questions about the Cardinals after they fell short against a Packers team missing their three top wide receivers on Thursday.

The Rams and the Bucs are the best the NFC has to offer at this stage and, come the end of Week 8, the EVE rankings will likely reflect that.

Three of the four underdogs, the Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, prevailed to progress to Conference Championship weekend.

An incredible overtime win over the Buffalo Bills saw the Kansas City Chiefs, the sole favourite to prevail, join them in moving one game away from the Super Bowl.

Despite a victory in a game many have already labelled as the best playoff game of all time, the Chiefs' position in the Super Bowl odds by Stats Perform's rest-of-season projection has gone down, with the Rams leapfrogging them and taking their spot as the team most likely to lift the Lombardi Trophy on February 13.

So how has a week of action in which the Chiefs were victorious flipped the odds against Kansas City?

Hollywood ending in store for LA?

Rest-of-season or, in this case, postseason projection, projects every future game to give a predicted win percentage for each team across its remaining games. Rather than being a simulator of future games, the projections are calculated by looking at each team's quarterback and QB efficiency versus expected – performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations – as well as team values for pass protection/pass rush, skill position players/coverage defenders and run blocking/run defense.

For the playoffs, the projection has been used to calculate each team's odds of winning a home game against every postseason team, with those predictions then used to forecast each franchise's chances of reaching and winning the Super Bowl.

Last week, prior to the Divisional games, the Chiefs were given a 27 per cent shot to win the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons, just ahead of the Rams on 26.3 per cent.

Following their respective victories, the Chiefs are viewed as having a 37.84 per cent chance of taking the silverware back to Missouri. The more likely outcome, at least according to ROS, is that the trophy stays at SoFi Stadium with the Rams, whose odds of winning it for only the second time in franchise history have ballooned to 38.21.

It is not a huge margin between the two, but the change at the top is enough to raise eyebrows given how devastating the Chiefs were on offense in defeating the Bills.

But the Rams' position as the new Super Bowl favourite is more a reflection of the potential opponents, rather than a commentary on the merits of the respective teams.

Another nail-biter for the Chiefs

Kansas City already has experience of one nerve-shredding Super Bowl with an NFC West opponent, coming back from 20-10 down in the fourth quarter to beat the 49ers two years ago in Super Bowl LIV.

And ROS expects either a meeting with the Rams or a rematch with the Niners to be similarly tense.

The Chiefs would not be considered favourites in a home game with the Rams, Kansas City given just a 45.2 per cent chance to triumph.

That number improves significantly in a matchup with the 49ers, against whom the Chiefs have 58.2 per cent odds of winning a home game.

It is still not an overly decisive margin, however, and pales in comparison to the Rams' prospects of beating the alternative AFC representative, the Bengals.

Cincinnati would have just a 16.8 per cent shot of winning a road game with Los Angeles, and those odds improve to just 19.8 per cent in a home game.

In other words, while a close game likely beckons for the Chiefs regardless of who wins the NFC Championship Game, an upset win for the Bengals in Kansas City would make the Rams or the Niners (72.1 per cent home game, 67.2 per cent away game) clear favourites to win the Super Bowl on the neutral field site at SoFi Stadium.

The Bengals' status as rank outsiders even after making it this far is in part based on the struggles of an offensive line that ranked 25th in Stats Perform's pass protection win rate and allowed nine sacks in the Divisional Round win over the Tennessee Titans.

San Francisco (first), Los Angeles (second) and the Chiefs (15th) each ranked in the top half of the NFL in pass-rush win rate, meaning Cincinnati will be at a clear disadvantage in the trenches in the AFC Championship Game and in a potential Super Bowl matchup.

The 2021 NFL season has been full of surprises, but the numbers clearly point to the Rams playing in a home Super Bowl against the Chiefs. 

So, is everybody ready for Niners-Bengals?

Ben Roethlisberger produced a clean game and threw a decisive touchdown pass to Chase Claypool with seven minutes left as Pittsburgh won 28-24 on the road against the Ravens to remain as the only undefeated team in the NFL.

The New England Patriots' struggles continued in a late loss to AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills and the Seattle Seahawks bounced back from their loss to the Arizona Cardinals as they beat the San Francisco 49ers in an important NFC West contest.

With only one Week 8 game – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the New York Giants – left on the schedule, we have reviewed some of the best statistics from another entertaining slate.

Wilson ahead of Manning record pace

The Seahawks prevailed 37-27 against the injury-hit Niners, with Russell Wilson once again coming to the fore.

Quarterback Wilson threw for 261 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions, good for a 128.3 passer rating.

He has now racked up an incredible 26 passing TDs through seven weeks, more than Peyton Manning had in 2013 when he went on to throw for a single-season record 55 TDs.

Only Tom Brady, who had 27 through seven games in 2007, has set a faster pace to start a campaign than Wilson. The then-New England Patriots QB ended that season with 50 TDs, the record Manning would go on to beat.

Wilson is also setting some remarkable career win statistics. Midway through his ninth season, he now has 92 regular-season victories, tied with Manning for the record inside nine campaigns. 

Including the postseason, he has 101 triumphs, tied with Brady for the most over the first nine years of any NFL QB's career – putting him one win away from the outright lead in both categories.

As things stand, only Manning (275) and Hall of Famer Dan Marino (266) have more than Wilson's 253 TD passes in their first nine seasons and the Seahawks QB still has nine games to go in 2020.

Cook spectacular to see off Packers

Few expected the Minnesota Vikings to triumph on the road against NFC North rivals the Green Bay Packers, but a sensational display from running back Dalvin Cook ensured they did just that.

Cook had a career-high 226 yards from scrimmage and scored four touchdowns, three of which were on the ground in a 28-22 triumph.

He is the first NFL player in 18 years (since Clinton Portis in Week 15 of the 2002 season) to produce at least 200 scrimmage yards, three rushing touchdowns and a receiving score in a single game.

Cook now has 10 rushing TDs in his first six games this year and the only players to score more in that span at the start of a season are Jim Brown (14 in 1958), Shaun Alexander (12 in 2005) and Emmitt Smith (11 in 1995).

Burrow makes rookie history

Joe Burrow tasted victory for the second time in his NFL career as the Cincinnati Bengals emerged as surprise 31-20 victors against the Tennessee Titans.

The QB completed 26 of his 37 passing attempts in the upset win, ending with a 106.7 rating after two TD passes and zero picks.

Burrow, selected at number one overall in the NFL draft, now has 221 completions in his first eight career games, the most in NFL history.

This was already his sixth game with at least 25 completed passes and he looks poised to break that rookie record too. It is currently held by Carson Wentz, who had seven such games in 2016.

Eagles win ugly against Cowboys

A miserable season for teams in the NFC East continued with an uninspiring 23-9 win for the Philadelphia Eagles over the Dallas Cowboys in Sunday Night Football.

The Cowboys fell to 2-6 as third-string QB Ben DiNucci – playing due to Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton both being ruled out – fumbled twice and was sacked four times, throwing for just 4.5 yards per attempt.

Wentz and the Eagles were not much better, though, with the fifth-year QB registering just 4.6 YPA, his two TDs overshadowed by two interceptions and two fumbles as he, like DiNucci, was sacked on four occasions.

Indeed, the Eagles became the first team since the Miami Dolphins won the 1982 AFC Championship game (the Mud Bowl) against the New York Jets to win by 14+ points while producing under 250 total yards, having 4+ turnovers and being sacked 4+ times.

Saints leaning on Kamara 

With Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders out, the New Orleans Saints once again leaned heavily on Alvin Kamara as they beat the Chicago Bears 26-23 in overtime.

RB Kamara had nine catches for 96 yards, adding a further 67 on the ground.

He already has 55 receptions this season, having tallied exactly 81 in each of his first three years in the NFL.

Matt Forte and LaDainian Tomlinson are the only other running backs in NFL history to record 50+ catches in each of their first four seasons.

Kamara also has six straight games with 100+ scrimmage yards, the longest streak by a Saints player since Deuce McAllister in 2003 (nine consecutive games).

Wilson suffered a right knee injury in the first quarter, buckling without contact as he scrambled out of the pocket trying to outrun a tackler.

The 23-year-old Jets QB fell, got up limping, before dropping to the turf again and exiting for the locker room.

Wilson had thrown an interception on the Jets' fifth play, finishing the game completing three of five passes for 23 yards.

The injury concern is to the same knee that he sustained a PCL sprain last season, causing him to miss four games.

Jets head coach Robert Saleh revealed Wilson would have an MRI on Saturday to determine the extent of the injury but said his ACL was "supposed to be intact".

The Jets have high hopes for their 2021 NFL Draft second pick, building their roster around him this offseason, having bolstered their offensive ranks with tight ends C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin and drafting wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall.

Wilson had a difficult rookie season with a 3-10 record, completing 213 of 383 attempts for nine touchdowns and 2,334 yards with 11 interceptions for a 55.6 completion rate.

There were other injury worries from Friday's preseason games with Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London hurting his right knee in their 27-23 win over the Detroit Lions.

San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell watched on in their clash with the Green Bay Packers after suffering a hamstring injury during their camp.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Brandon Allen, covering for Joe Burrow who is recovering from an appendectomy, was ruled out due to a concussion in their 36-23 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks topped last season's Super Bowl finalists the San Francisco 49ers 37-27.

The Broncos somehow rallied past the Los Angeles Chargers, the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints were involved in a brawl, while the Philadelphia Eagles saw off rivals the Dallas Cowboys.

SEAHAWKS BOUNCE BACK

The Seahawks went down to the Arizona Cardinals in overtime in Week 7, ending their unbeaten start to the season.

But Wilson threw four touchdowns and star wide receiver DK Metcalf dominated as NFC West leaders the Seahawks (6-1) powered past the 49ers in Seattle.

MVP candidate Wilson completed 27 of 37 passes for 261 yards and no interceptions, teaming up with Metcalf in devastating fashion.

Metcalf caught Wilson's first two TD passes, finishing with 12 catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns. It gave the WR new career bests in both receptions and yards.

After Seattle's Tyler Lockett had 15 catches, 200 receiving yards and three touchdowns last week, the Seahawks became the first team ever to have different players with 12/150/2 or better in back-to-back games, per Stats Perform.

The 49ers dropped to 4-4 and 1-2 in the NFC West at CenturyLink Field, where stars Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle exited with injuries in the fourth quarter.

After Tevin Coleman (knee) left in the first quarter, quarterback Garoppolo – who missed two games recently – appeared to tweak his ankle, while tight end Kittle hurt his foot.

"I knew it was hurt once we all saw it and he didn't go back in on that one play," 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said. "He had a good week of practice throwing, but high ankle sprains linger, so you never know when it's going to affect you. I know he hurt it later in the game, or re-hurt it, and we'll wait until tomorrow to see how bad it is."

Garoppolo was 11-of-16 for 84 yards and an interception prior to exiting the game.

BRONCOS BLITZ CHARGERS

The Broncos (3-4) emerged from the jaws of defeat to snatch a 31-30 win over the Chargers (2-5).

Denver – led by Drew Lock – scored 21 points in the final quarter and 28 in the second half to stun the visiting Chargers.

Lock went 14-of-18 passing for 155 yards with three touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone, the Broncos QB finishing 26 of 41 for 248 yards, three TDs and an interception.

KJ Hamler completed the comeback at the death, connecting with Lock on a one-yard pass as time expired.

Hamler became the first player to score a game-winning touchdown with no time left for his first career TD since Ernest Wilford in 2004, according to Stats Perform.

WIMS EJECTED FOR PUNCHING GARDNER-JOHNSON

The Bears went down 26-23 to the Saints in overtime, a loss headlined by wide receiver Javon Wims' ejection.

Wims sucker-punched Saints safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson in the third quarter – approaching the latter from behind and unleashing a flurry of hits to the helmet.

Saints cornerback Janoris Jenkins jumped in and attacked Wims before both teams got involved and broke up the brawl.

"We talked to him and told him that's not how things go here," Bears coach Matt Nagy said. "One of Javon's strengths is character and who he is as a person and he has since apologised but there is no part of that in this game. Again, I still haven't seen it, but from what I heard it is not good. That's now how we roll here and we'll be talking to him."

In Sunday's late game, the Eagles defeated the slumping Cowboys 23-9 to extend their lead in the NFC East.

Carson Wentz was 15 of 27 for 123 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions as the Eagles improved to 3-4-1, while the Cowboys fell to 2-6.

The Eagles became the first NFL team to have under 250 total yards, turn the ball over four-plus times, get sacked four or more times and yet still win the game by 14-plus points since the Miami Dolphins beat the New York Jets 14-0 in the 1982 AFC Championship Game, per Stats Perform.

Week 8 scores:

Atlanta Falcons 25-17 Carolina Panthers
Buffalo Bills 24-21 New England Patriots
Cincinnati Bengals 31-20 Tennessee Titans
Las Vegas Raiders 16-6 Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts 41-21 Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings 28-22 Green Bay Packers
Kansas City Chiefs 35-9 New York Jets
Miami Dolphins 28-17 Los Angeles Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers 28-24 Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos 31-30 Los Angeles Chargers
New Orleans Saints 26-23 Chicago Bears (OT)
Seattle Seahawks 37-27 San Francisco 49ers
Philadelphia Eagles 23-9 Dallas Cowboys

The Chiefs were heavy favourites coming into Sunday's game at Arrowhead Stadium and quickly built up a 21-3 advantage.

Despite a Bengals response, Kansas City were still 11 points clear when they had the ball on the Cincinnati one-yard line just before half-time.

But they misjudged the clock and failed to add to their advantage, as time expiring after a completed pass to Tyreek Hill meant they could not even kick a field goal.

The Bengals then rallied in the second half to move ahead 24-21 and while the Chiefs were able to get the game to overtime, it was Cincinnati who came out on top.

Just 34 yards, two first downs and an interception from Mahomes came from the first five Kansas City drives in the second half as the offense went completely flat, costing the hosts victory.

"When you're up 21-3 in a game, you can't lose it, and I put that on myself," Mahomes said.

"I was supposed to throw the ball away [in the play before halftime]. I got a little greedy there and tried to give it to Tyreek and get a touchdown, they had two people out there. 

"In the long run of things, it looks bad, but if we had another chance, I'd go for another play again.

"There was a few misreads here and there. There was guys that were open and I didn't hit at the right time or I passed up on something shorter that I wanted to get something deeper down the field. 

"When you're playing a good team and you don't hit what's there and you try to get a little bit more than what's necessary it kind of bites you in the butt, I guess you would say. 

"We were playing so well in the first half and in the second half, we were just off a tick and that's all it takes to lose a football game."

The Chiefs have been to four straight championship games with Mahomes as starter. Their two defeats, in this game and to the New England Patriots in 2018, both came in overtime.

Mahomes added: "A few plays here and there we could have four chances at the Super Bowl.

"You can't let this end what we have here, you have to make sure you continue to battle, continue to get better and try to find ways to win Super Bowls.''

Defeat cost the Chiefs a chance to reach a third straight Super Bowl.

Head coach Andy Reid was reluctant to blame star quarterback Mahomes, who was intercepted by B.J. Hill in the third quarter before throwing another pick to Vonn Bell in OT.

"Patrick's a great player, he was trying to make a play," he said when asked if Mahomes had pressed too much as the Chiefs started to lose their lead.

"I have got to do a better job at giving him things that he can make plays with. I can do a lot better in that area. 

"I could've given him other things to work with, better things, better plays to work with."

Of the Chiefs' mistake at the end of the first half, Reid added: "I was hoping we could get the ball in the end zone.

"I probably gave him the wrong play first of all. To start with, I could've given him something better than that, where the play was open in the end zone, and then we wouldn't have had to go through that. 

"I'll take responsibility for that one."

Mahomes completed 26 of 39 attempts and threw three touchdowns as well as his two picks.

The Bengals head coach saw opposition quarterback Tagovailoa taken away to hospital in the second quarter after sustaining what the Dolphins said were head and neck injuries.

Tagovailoa took a blow to the back of his head in a Josh Tupou sack and appeared to suffer a seizure upon initial contact with the pitch. It came after he also took a heavy hit in last week's win over the Buffalo Bills.

After tight losses to the Steelers and the Cowboys in the opening two weeks, there was relief in the Bengals camp that they had got back to 2-2 for the season, but concern too about the health of Tagovailoa.

Asked about how he handled talks with his players as Tagovailoa received medical attention, Taylor said: "It's a heavy moment. He's a guy with tremendous character, and you hate to see that happen.

"It's a tough moment for everybody, especially them, then to take it to third-and-long, and you've got to come out there and respond. I won't say that there's in-depth conversations going on, but certainly thinking about Tua, and that's a horrible thing to see."

It soon emerged Tagovailoa was to be discharged from hospital in what looked to be a positive update from the Dolphins.

Taylor said Thursday night's win for his Bengals players was "expected, just because we've got a great team", as a record home crowd of 67,260 watched on.

"I love this team. I love everything about them. They didn't hesitate for one second after those first two weeks when all the noise was getting out about expectations," Taylor added.

"They didn't let that affect them for one second. They just came out and answered the bell, and responded for two consecutive weeks. I'm just really proud of them on this stage, against that team. That's a really good football team – they're going to win a lot of games.

"I thought they handled every moment in this game exactly how they needed to, especially in the second half. Capitalising on turnovers, touchdowns, special teams stepping up big – that was just a great way to win a Thursday night game."

The coach rates his group as "championship calibre players" and saluted a "lights-out" performance from quarterback Joe Burrow, who completed 20 of 31 attempts for 287 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions.

When it comes to defense, Taylor is confident the Bengals are among the best in the business.

"I've got a lot of faith in our defense," he said. "It's like comparing your children, so I'm not comparing them to the other [units], but we know that when need them to step up, they're going to do it. Whether that's putting pressure on the quarterback, being tight in coverage, creating those turnovers they did – that's a really explosive team."