Cincinnati Bengals

Though trades regularly shuffle the pack, more often than not the draft headlines are made by teams who finished at the wrong end of the regular-season standings in the previous campaign, such is the nature of league's annual selection meeting.

While those franchises with rosters capable of contending to go all the way to the Super Bowl may not be as reliant on the draft as those rebuilding their teams, the selections they make can be critical in providing the potential final piece of what they hope will be a championship-winning puzzle.

Inevitably, not every team expected to contend in April will do so once the season gets under way in September.

Yet we can make educated guesses as to which teams will be in the mix to go deep into the postseason in each conference.

Here Stats Perform has identified four such teams from each conference, with the Cleveland Browns omitted from the list due to the threat of a possible suspension for new starting quarterback Deshaun Watson.

With help from some advanced metrics, we look at what each of these eight teams need to add in the draft to maximise their hopes of standing underneath the confetti in Arizona next February.

NFC

Los Angeles Rams

Identifying draft needs for the Rams is a difficult task not because they don't have any, but because they so often fill their holes by trading away their picks to land superstars.

This year, the Rams don't pick until 104 overall in the third round, not that the Super Bowl champions will mind skipping the first two rounds.

When it finally comes to their turn, the interior of the offensive line stands out as an area of weakness, while the Rams might also be eyeing an edge rusher to help fill the void left by Von Miller, whose stunt-adjusted pass rush win percentage of 43.4 was fifth among edge rushers with at least 100 one-on-one matchups last year.

San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are in a similar position to the Rams in that they don't have a lot of needs, though the urgency is greater for a team that let a fourth-quarter lead slip against Los Angeles in the NFC Championship Game.

Right guard has been a long-standing issue for San Francisco, and the Niners will also need to find a developmental center to replace Alex Mack when he eventually retires. Nebraska's Cam Jurgens is a name to watch there.

San Francisco do not pick until 61st overall in the second round, having traded this year's first-rounder in the package that landed Trey Lance. A defense that ranked first in pass rush win rate could be stacked further by another edge rusher to pair with Nick Bosa, and there is a clear need next to Jimmie Ward at safety.

Of course, what would really make it a successful draft for the Niners would be finally trading Jimmy Garoppolo to secure more picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There's a theme here, and the theme is that trying to find needs for NFC contenders is tough, especially in the case of the Bucs, who brought back Tom Brady after he quickly got bored with retirement and re-signed a host of free agents many expected to depart.

With Todd Bowles assuming the head coaching reins from Bruce Arians, it's fair to anticipate a focus on the defense from the Bucs, who own the 27th pick in the first round as well as two other top-100 selections.

More beef on the interior of the defensive line is required with Ndamukong Suh as yet not re-signed and, though Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal have signed as safety help to atone for Jordan Whitehead's departure, a rookie who can make a difference down in the box and in coverage would be a welcome addition to the defense.

Green Bay Packers

Now this is more like it. The Packers have one glaring, obvious need and there's no way they can fail to address it, right?

Brian Gutekunst may have a history of eschewing first-round wide receivers but, after trading Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders, it would be an extremely bemusing move to risk Aaron Rodgers' wrath and do so again.

Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson... they all must be in the mix here and, with two selections in the first round, the Packers could even double up at the position.

There are other holes. The secondary could use some more quality depth, and an offensive line that ranked 28th in run-block win rate could also be improved, but the Packers' hopes of getting over the hump in 2022 likely rest on their ability to give Rodgers weapons that mitigate the impact of Adams' stunning departure.

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs

After Patrick Mahomes faced the most pressures in a Super Bowl since 2006 in consecutive years (28 in SB LIV, 34 in SB LV), the Chiefs overhauled their offensive line heading into 2021 and were confident they were on course for the title game once again – only for Mahomes' own stunning playoff collapse to end both the team's season and the career of Tyreek Hill in Kansas City.

Hill's departure in a trade to the Miami Dolphins leaves a gaping hole.

New signing Marquez Valdes-Scantling at least offers a downfield option, but that was his sole responsibility with the Packers in 2021, recording a league-high average depth of target of 17.6 yards but making just 26 catches. Valdes-Scantling and fellow recruit JuJu Smith-Schuster, who's coming off shoulder surgery, have just one 1,000-yard season between them; Hill has four.

Thankfully, the Hill deal means the Chiefs have plenty of draft picks – two in each of the first three rounds – and plenty of options at wide receiver, but safety Tyrann Mathieu and cornerback Charvarius Ward must also be replaced just to get Kansas City back to where they started.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are a year behind the Chiefs, beaten in the Super Bowl after leaving their quarterback horribly exposed. Joe Burrow faced 23 pressures against the Rams, tied for third-most since 2006.

Like the Chiefs, they quickly set about bolstering their O line in free agency, though there remains a pressing need at left guard. Ted Karras played there for the New England Patriots last year, but is set to move back into center after Trey Hopkins was cut.

That versatility at least gives the Bengals options at either position depending on how the draft plays out, with their first pick not until the end of the first round (31). In fact, given competition at cornerback, edge and/or tight end could also be sought, the Bengals may be flexible throughout.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are the Super Bowl favourites, and with good reason. They were a coin flip away from beating the Chiefs and would have backed themselves against the Bengals, which might have quelled some of the optimism in Cincinnati channelled above. Buffalo have also added Super Bowl champion Miller to a defense that gave up a league-low 4.57 yards per play.

That's not to say there don't remain areas for improvement, with cornerback an obvious place to start. Tre'Davious White is returning from an ACL tear, and the Bills need a new man opposite him, given the loss of Levi Wallace.

The Bills might also be advised to ease the burden on all-action quarterback Josh Allen with the addition of a reliable running back. Allen ranked third among QBs for rushing yards in 2021 (763) but accounted for 34.5 per cent of his team's total – far and away the greatest share at his position.

Second on the list was former MVP Lamar Jackson (767 yards, 30.9 per cent), who's already showing signs of wear and tear having been tasked with running the Baltimore Ravens' offense.

Los Angeles Chargers

Outside the Packers, the Chargers perhaps have the most obvious positional need of any contender at right tackle – despite their own strong signings so far.

Left tackle Rashawn Slater was their first-round pick in 2021 and earned Pro Bowl recognition in his rookie season. Among offensive tackles with 200 or more pass protection snaps, Slater's stunt-adjusted win percentage of 90.5 ranked third. However, that stood in complete contrast to right tackle Storm Norton, whose 63.0 per cent ranked third-last.

Norton was brought in to play 15 games after a back injury put Bryan Bulaga on injured reserve. Bulaga has now been cut, and the Chargers surely cannot run it back with Norton.

The very best OTs in the draft are unlikely to still be available when the Chargers get to work in the middle of the first round, but it's no surprise to see them widely linked with Northern Iowa's Trevor Penning.

There had been speculation the Bengals would select an offensive tackle to help protect Burrow, who saw his rookie season end after 10 games following a serious knee injury.

Cincinnati opted instead to give him another weapon and the pair will not need to spend any time getting to know one another. 

Burrow and Chase starred together at Louisiana State, helping the quarterback build a resume that made him the top pick in the 2020 Draft. 

In the 26 games they played together at LSU in 2018 and 2019, Burrow targeted Chase 162 times, resulting in 107 receptions for 2,093 yards and 23 touchdowns.

Chase opted out of the 2020 college season so he could focus on preparing for the NFL Draft, so the first pass he catches in an NFL game presumably will be thrown by the man who delivered all of his college receptions. 

A year after holding a virtual NFL Draft in Commissioner Roger Goodell’s basement due to concerns over the coronavirus, the 2021 draft descended on Cleveland, Ohio on Thursday, with Goodell once again sharing bro-hugs with the prospects on stage in front of thousands of vaccinated and mask-wearing fans.

Although the easy chair from Goodell’s basement did make the trip to the stage, this year’s edition of the draft felt much more normal than a year ago – and it began exactly as nearly everyone expected.

The Jacksonville Jaguars chose Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence first overall and the New York Jets went with BYU quarterback Zach Wilson at number two.

Considered to be the most polished QB prospect in years, Lawrence threw for 10,098 yards in his collegiate career, while going 34-2 as a starter with the Tigers and winning the 2018 National Championship.

Wilson had been linked to the Jets for months after throwing for 3,692 yards with 33 touchdown passes to only three interceptions last season, and New York hopes he can be the franchise’s answer at QB and lead the team to the playoffs for the first time since 2010 after the recently traded and 2018 No. 3 pick Sam Darnold never lived up to expectations.

A quarterback had also been projected to go third overall ever since the San Francisco 49ers traded up to that position weeks ago, the only question was who – Trey Lance out of FCS powerhouse North Dakota State, two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year Justin Fields from Ohio State or Alabama national champion Mac Jones.

The tight-lipped 49ers ended weeks of suspense by drafting Lance, who has only played in one game since the 2019 season but led the Bison to the FCS title that year while accounting for 42 total touchdowns without an interception.

With the surprising Lance going to San Francisco, this became just the third time in the common draft era that started in 1967 – and first time since 1999 – quarterbacks went 1-2-3 in the NFL draft.

The consensus top five QBs - Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields and Jones – had been slated to all get drafted in the top 10, but Fields and Jones were still on the board after 10 picks.

The Chicago Bears decided not to sit on their hands, trading up nine spots with the New York Giants to grab Fields, a dual-threat QB who finished his collegiate career with 5,701 passing yards and 67 TDs through the air.

The Patriots were more patient, selecting Jones with the 15th pick – a spot few believed he would still be available. Jones threw for 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns to just four picks in leading Alabama last season, and became the first quarterback selected in the first round during Bill Belichick’s 21-year tenure in New England.

Jones also became the final QB selected in the first round, making this only the fourth time at least five QBs were drafted in round number one, along with 2018, 1999 and the famous 1983 draft, when six were selected.

Not only were QBs a hot commodity, so were their targets.

The Atlanta Falcons made Florida’s Kyle Pitts the highest drafted tight end in history when they picked him fourth overall after he had 43 catches for 770 yards and 12 TDs in 2020.

The Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins drafted who they hope will be their franchise quarterbacks in the 2020 first round, and this year they each focused on providing them with a playmaker they were familiar with.

Cincinnati selected LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth pick, teaming him 2020 No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow, the quarterback who led the Tigers to the 2019 FBS title. In 26 games played together in 2018 and 2019, Burrow targeted Chase 162 times, resulting in 107 receptions for 2,093 yards and 23 touchdowns.

One pick later, the Dolphins chose Alabama receiver Jaylen Waddle, reuniting him with college quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, last year’s fifth pick. Waddle only appeared in six games last season because of a broken left ankle, but he left Alabama with 106 receptions for 1,999 yards and 17 touchdowns over three years.

The reunions continued with the 10th pick, when the Philadelphia Eagles traded up to select 2020 Heisman Trophy-winning wide receiver DeVonta Smith to get him back with former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts, the 53rd overall pick a year ago. Smith, who put up eye-popping numbers in 2020 with 117 receptions for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns, was a teammate of Hurts in 2017 and 2018.

While the Bengals, Dolphins and Eagles reunited former teammates, the Jaguars decided to go ahead and just bring aboard one of Lawrence’s teammates from this past season, selecting Clemson running back Travis Etienne with the 25th pick, making this the first time in the common draft era a quarterback and running back from the same school were drafted by the same team in the first round.

Etienne was a workhorse for the past four years with the Tigers, racking up 4,952 rushing yards and 70 touchdowns on the ground while averaging 7.2 yards per carry.

Etienne became the second running back selected in the first round after the Pittsburgh Steelers took Alabama’s Najee Harris one pick earlier.

With the Denver Broncos nabbing Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II ninth overall and the Las Vegas Raiders drafting Crimson Tide offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood at No. 17, Harris became the sixth player from Alabama drafted in the first round, matching the University of Miami from 2004 for the most players selected from one school in the first round.

While the draft started with offensive players being selected with the first seven picks for the first time ever, the final five picks of the opening round were all defensive players, concluding with the defending Super Bowl champions the Tampa Bay Buccaneers selecting linebacker Joe Tryon out of Washington with the 32nd pick.

From a fantasy perspective, there is plenty of evidence to guide managers regarding what players and teams they can rely on in their quest for glory.

By the same token, it should now be obvious which defenses have significant weaknesses and can be exploited by astute fantasy managers who pay attention to matchups.

Here we pick four players and a defense who have favourable matchups in the upcoming round of games and merit starter consideration for Week 7.

QB: Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are not an easy team to watch nor do they have the players to put Burrow, the first overall pick in the draft, in a position to succeed.

However, regardless of the on-field results, Burrow and the Bengals have typically been good for passing yardage. Burrow already has four 300-yard games to his name as a pro and his best performance of his young career came in Week 2 against this week's opponents, the Cleveland Browns.

Burrow threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions in that meeting and, with last week's loss to the Indianapolis Colts providing signs of a burgeoning rapport with A.J. Green, there is reason to be encouraged that he could replicate that display against a Browns team coming off a bruising blowout loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

RB: Ronald Jones – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jones has emerged as a pivotal player for the Tampa Bay offense, helping take the pressure off Tom Brady with three successive 100-yard efforts, including a two-touchdown display in last Sunday's blowout of the Green Bay Packers.

The Las Vegas Raiders' run defense has stiffened in recent weeks but, given they began the season by giving up at least 100 yards on the ground in their first three games, fantasy players with Jones on their roster should approach this week with plenty of confidence he can have another productive outing.

WR: Christian Kirk – Arizona Cardinals

The offseason acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins bumped speedster Kirk down the wide receiver pecking order but, despite averaging only four targets a game, he has taken significant advantage of his opportunities in recent weeks.

He has 183 receiving yards and three touchdowns over the course of the last three games and showed off his abilities as a deep threat on his 80-yard score against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday.

Given Russell Wilson's devastating form throwing the ball, there is a strong chance the Cardinals may have to go downfield often to keep up with the unbeaten Seattle Seahawks in their NFC West clash. That would spell excellent news for Kirk, who can do significant damage against a Seahawks defense surrendering 370.4 passing yards a game – the worst in the NFL.

TE: Hunter Henry – Los Angeles Chargers

The days of the Jacksonville Jaguars as a competitive concern in the 2020 NFL season appear to have long since ended. Theirs is a defense that has given up over 400 yards four times this season, making them an ideal opponent for Chargers rookie quarterback Justin Herbert as he looks to get his first win.

Henry will likely be a frequent recipient of passes from Herbert, as the tight end has been targeted at least seven times in all but one game this season. His level of opportunity and the expected lack of resistance from the fast-fading Jaguars is a recipe for an impressive statistical performance.

D/ST: Washington Football Team

While the early-season shine is very much off Washington following their loss to the New York Giants in Week 6, their defense gets the benefit of going up against an offense in shambles in Week 7.

The Cowboys committed four turnovers in Monday's 38-10 loss to the Cardinals and have given away 15 so far this season. With backup quarterback Andy Dalton playing behind a decimated offensive line, the likelihood is Dallas will continue to surrender possession. Having forced eight turnovers this season, Washington and their fearsome defensive front should make it another long game for Dalton and the Cowboys.

Fantasy managers who have enjoyed strong starts may already be casting their eyes towards the playoffs and a run at the title.

Meanwhile, those owners who are mired near the bottom of their league might be wondering where it all went wrong and paying a dwindling amount of attention to their line-up.

Either way, there are plenty of players with matchups this week who can help deliver a win for your squad. Stats Perform looks at four offensive players and a defense who are primed to make a significant impact in Week 7.

Quarterback: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins

The Falcons have had the bye week to rest after their win over the New York Jets in London and now get the chance to exploit another vulnerable AFC East defense.

They face a Dolphins team that will be playing only seven days removed from their game in the United Kingdom, and a defense that gave up 319 passing yards in their loss to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.

Ryan has two 300-yard games to his name this year and has thrown for multiple scores in every game after drawing a blank in the season opener.

Atlanta and Miami look like two teams heading in different directions, expect Ryan and the Falcons to take advantage and the 2016 MVP to record a big fantasy day.

Running Back: Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans

Edmonds has been something of a frustrating case so far this season.

He is averaging six yards per carry but has not consistently received the workload to be a viable fantasy option.

That looks likely to change this week when the unbeaten Cardinals face the 1-5 Texans, who are allowing 4.74 yards per rush attempt, the fifth-worst average in the NFL.

With the Cardinals widely expected to get out to a big lead in a hurry, Arizona should be able to take the pressure off Kyler Murray and lean on their backs if the game gets out of hand, meaning Edmonds could be in store for plenty of garbage time yards.

Wide Receiver: Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Chase is a fully fledged fantasy darling having exploded out of the gates as a rookie for 553 yards and five touchdowns.

He might be expected to hit a block in the road against a Ravens defense that only gave up six points to the Los Angeles Chargers last week.

However, Chase is tied for the league lead with eight receiving plays of 25 yards or more and only six teams have allowed more passing plays of 20 yards or more than the Ravens (24).

Keep the faith and look for Joe Burrow and Chase to connect on at least one big one to vindicate his starting spot in fantasy line-ups.

Tight End: Dallas Goedert @ Las Vegas Raiders

With Zach Ertz out of the picture following his trade to the Arizona Cardinals, expect a bump in targets for Goedert, who is averaging 14.4 yards per reception this season.

That increase in his share of the workload could hardly come at a better time for Goedert fantasy owners, as he and the Philadelphia Eagles travel to visit a Raiders team allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

Defense: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

This one isn't too difficult. The Jets have committed nine giveaways this season, tied for sixth-most in the NFL, and four of those came from Zach Wilson interceptions against the Patriots at MetLife Stadium in Week 2.

Wilson and Co. have got themselves in the win column since then, but there is nothing to suggest that a Jets offense still without left tackle Mekhi Becton should succeed in avoiding turnovers in this week's return fixture in Foxborough.

It is a year that has served as a perfect illustration of the NFL being a 'week-to-week league'; upsets have been frequent, making the elite teams tougher to discern, even with 10 weeks in the books.

Only four teams in the AFC are below .500 while, of those currently outside the playoffs in the NFC, every team aside from the winless Detroit Lions is at worst a game back in the loss column of the final Wild Card berth.

It sets the stage for a fascinating stretch run in the regular season and, for fantasy purposes, can sow doubt around players who would otherwise be considered sure things.

But, in Week 11, there are some clear standouts who look primed for highly productive performances. Once again, Stats Perform has identified four offensive players and a defense that deserve starting spots this week.

Quarterback: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders were shredded by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs last week as their commitment to playing coverage looks featuring a single-high safety backfired spectacularly.

Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley seems steadfast in sticking with such coverages and the evidence suggests it will prove the Raiders' downfall again versus the Bengals.

Though the Bengals enter the game on a two-game losing streak, they can afford to have confidence in Burrow flourishing in Las Vegas.

Burrow is delivering a well-thrown, accurate ball on 84.4 per cent of his pass attempts against Cover 1 robber looks and on 90.2 per cent of throws versus Cover 3 zone.

The Raiders, therefore, represent the ideal matchup as the Bengals and Burrow look to bounce back. 

Running Back: A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

The Packers will be without starting running back Aaron Jones because of a knee sprain, however, Dillon has proven himself an impressive complement and should excel filling the void while Jones is on the sideline.

Dillon was not efficient in the Packers' win over the Seattle Seahawks last time out, averaging only 3.1 yards per carry while finding the endzone twice.

However, he has averaged at least 4.9 yards per rush in the three other games where he has received at least 10 carries this year.

Against a Vikings defense giving up the third-most yards per rush in the league (4.74), Dillon will have the workload and the matchup to enjoy a career day in Jones' absence.

Wide Receiver: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs

The second-year wideout is on a tear, Lamb having racked up 378 receiving yards and four touchdowns over the last four games.

He is establishing himself as Dak Prescott's top target on a loaded offense few have managed to slow down in 2021.

The Chiefs have improved on defense of late but theirs is a unit allowing the third-most pass yards per play in the NFL (7.41). It is tough to have faith in Kansas City to slow down a receiver in Lamb's vein of form.

Tight End: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts

Returning from a fractured hand, Knox was targeted just once in the Bills' blowout win over the New York Jets.

The game script did not really call for Knox to be heavily involved as Buffalo built an insurmountable lead.

However, things are likely to be closer against the Colts, meaning Knox may need to reproduce the breakout form he delivered earlier in the season.

Knox has a touchdown in four of his seven games in 2021. Against a Colts defense allowing the seventh-most TD drives in the NFL (27), he's a strong bet to find the endzone again.

Defense: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Miami's ultra-aggressive defense created havoc in their stunning win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10. The Dolphins sacked Lamar Jackson four times, their commitment to relentlessly blitzing defensive backs derailing Baltimore's passing game, intercepted him once and forced two fumbles, with one returned for a touchdown.

Now they face a Jets team that has turned the ball over 22 times this season, committing 13 giveaways in their last four games.

They have turned to Joe Flacco in the belief the veteran, and not ailing second overall pick Zach Wilson or Mike White, gives them the best chance to win. However, Flacco threw an interception in each of his previous three appearances for the Jets last season. Despite the quarterback change, the signs still point to Miami's defense enjoying another disruptive day.

The ruling comes a day after the proposed changes were approved by the league's competition committee.

Monday's game between the Bills and Bengals was suspended after Bills safety Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest on the field and needed to be resuscitated, shocking the sporting world and leaving the NFL with questions about how to proceed.

On Thursday, the NFL said it would not finish the game and officially ruled it as a no contest, leaving the Bills and Bengals – both AFC contenders – with one fewer game played than the rest of the league.

If Cincinnati or Buffalo qualify for the AFC Championship game as the road team and could have been the home team with one more win, this new provision would move the game to a neutral site.

The rule also allows for a coin flip to decide the host of a potential Wild Card round game between the Bengals (11-4) and Baltimore Ravens (10-6) if the Ravens win the matchup between the teams in the regular-season finale on Sunday.

The new procedures are not without controversy and have already received some criticism from fans of the Kansas City Chiefs (13-3), who can secure the AFC's top seed and first-round bye with a Week 18 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. There are scenarios, however, in which the Chiefs would lose the right to host an AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium against the Bills (12-3).

The league's policy manual says that "a team's standing in its division or in its conference” is to be decided by winning percentage in the case of a disparity in games played, but the league deemed Monday's cancellation extraordinary enough to warrant a new ruling.

It is the first time since 1935 that NFL teams will have played different numbers of games in a season, leaving no modern precedent on which the league could lean.

While the NFL has been tweaking its playoff format, Hamlin has gradually made progress during his four days at the University of Cincinnati Medical Center.

Hamlin, whose heart was re-started twice Monday, is now able to breathe on his own and had his breathing tube removed overnight. The 24-year-old even joined his team-mates briefly on a video call Friday with a simple message: “Love you boys.”

In a Friday statement, the Bills said Hamlin's "neurologic function remains intact and he has been able to talk to his family and care team."

Now with Jimmy Garoppolo, whom they kept around after attempting to trade away, likely also on the shelf for the rest of the season with a broken foot, the NFL world is left wondering whether one of the best rosters in the league can still go deep in the postseason with rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy at quarterback.

The early signs are promising, with Purdy stepping in for Garoppolo against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 and producing a composed display in a 33-17 win that pushed the Niners' record to 8-4.

An enforced switch from Garoppolo to Purdy, the last pick in this year's draft, is an obvious downgrade, but how does it impact the 49ers' hopes of reaching the playoffs and Super Bowl?

Stats Perform can answer that question by looking at its rest-of-season (ROS) projection.

To generate the ROS predictions, every future game is projected to give a predicted win percentage for each team across its remaining games. The projections are calculated by looking at each team's quarterback and performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations as well as team values for pass protection/pass rush, skill position players/coverage defenders and run blocking/run defense.

The projected win percentages are then aggregated to produce the forecasted standings, which suggest all is not lost for the 49ers.

Still Purdy Good

Purdy was poised, decisive and accurate after replacing Garoppolo, fostering hope he can help keep the 49ers in the Super Bowl hunt despite his inexperience at the highest level.

The ROS projection does not see the Niners winning the Super Bowl, giving San Francisco less than a one per cent chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy with Purdy under center.

However, the 49ers are still given an average win total of 10.5, putting them as the third seed as NFC West champions. With the division rival Seattle Seahawks projected to win 9.76 and end the season as the sixth seed, it would set up a mouthwatering Wild Card matchup.

The 49ers have done most of the hard work in their playoff pursuit and have a dominant defense that ranks first in EVE (our Efficiency Versus Expected metric).

As such, the Niners are still likely to make the playoffs, with ROS giving them a 95 per cent shot. What happens after that is up in the air with Purdy at the helm.

Chiefs Still Reign

The Kansas City Chiefs' loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13 dropped them out of the No. 1 seed in the AFC, with the Buffalo Bills once again in control of the conference.

ROS, though, expects the Chiefs to reassume the top spot by the end of the season.

The Chiefs are given a projected average win total of 12.8, the highest in the AFC and ahead of the Bills' 12.4.

On the NFC side, ROS does not project any slip-ups from the 11-1 Philadelphia Eagles, who are predicted to win 15.1 games and finish well clear of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. The Eagles also have an NFL-best 35 per cent chance of winning the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs second at 18.8 per cent. 

If this projection is accurate, Dallas would face the prospect of playing the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in the Wild Card round despite a 12-win campaign.

A dangerous Wild Card

ROS still appears to lack belief in the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals despite a third successive win over the Chiefs.

Cincinnati are predicted to finish second in the AFC North behind the Baltimore Ravens with a projected average win total of 10.42. The margin is razor-thin, though, with the Ravens' total at 10.43.

The Bengals have just a 2.4 per cent chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the projection.

Yet with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense catching fire in recent weeks, the Bengals loom as an extremely dangerous potential Wild Card team and the projected addition of the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets to the playoffs would make for one of the most fascinating AFC postseasons in recent memory.

By contrast, the recent tie between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders is unlikely to strike fear into the heart of any NFC contenders. They will renew acquaintances in Week 15, and it is the former who is projected to ultimately win out in their battle for the seventh seed and seal a Wild Card clash with the Minnesota Vikings.

The Giants have an average projected win total of 8.3 compared to 8.2 for the Commanders as the projection suggests a losing record will be good enough for at least one team to reach the postseason.

In the AFC Championship Game, Patrick Mahomes is hosting Joe Burrow in a repeat of last year's matchup, with both men having already been to the big game.

Meanwhile, in the NFC, Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy have each played just two postseason games, green enough both to provoke excitement and concern in equal measure.

Three of these QBs were confirmed as MVP candidates this week, with Purdy the obvious exception as 'Mr Irrelevant', enjoying a fairytale story that would surpass just about any other.

So, which of the four is best placed heading into this weekend, and who can expect to be playing in Arizona in two weeks' time?

Brock Purdy, 49ers @ Eagles

It is safe to say Purdy did not expect to be playing in this game when he was selected with the final pick of the 2022 draft.

Injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo have catapulted the rookie into the spotlight, and he has not disappointed, winning his first seven starts to extend the 49ers' streak to 12 straight victories – a team's longest sequence entering a conference championship since the undefeated New England Patriots in 2007.

Purdy, at 22, will become the youngest QB to start a game at this stage of the season since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, while he is only the fourth to do so having started five or fewer regular season games.

But given this inexperience, Purdy is the one remaining QB who likely will not be handed complete control of the offense, instead asked simply to consistently put the ball in the hands of the 49ers' outstanding skill players.

Christian McCaffrey, like Purdy, has won every start since joining the 49ers in a mid-season trade from the Carolina Panthers, scoring an offensive touchdown in each of his past eight – one shy of both Ezekiel Elliott's 2022-best streak of nine.

Since his first start, McCaffrey ranks third in the NFL for offensive touches (234); since Purdy's first start, he ranks first (136).

Even with McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel each highly effective targets through the air, the 49ers have shifted their focus to the run game with Purdy under center.

They have run the ball on 50.1 per cent of plays since Purdy's first start, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL and the highest of any team who made the playoffs. Prior to Week 14, that figure was 43.2 per cent.

It is unlikely the 49ers move away from that now against an elite defense that leads the league by a considerable margin in sacks (75), sack yards (517) and sack rate (10.7 per cent).

Purdy may need McCaffrey and Co. to carry him through this round, but a Super Bowl appearance would only encourage those Tom Brady 2001 comparisons.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles vs 49ers

Hurts' appearance on this stage is clearly not as surprising as Purdy's, but few could have foreseen the Eagles QB as the Goliath to his opponent's David back when the season began.

The third-year star has delivered on his potential in 2022.

Hurts' ability to run with the ball was never in question, and this year his 14 rushing TDs rank third among all players, with Josh Allen his nearest rival at QB on a comparatively meagre eight.

But there has crucially been progress in the passing game as Hurts posted career-best marks by just about every metric in the regular season – 66.5 completion percentage, 3,701 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 1.3 interception percentage and a passer rating of 101.5.

Last week, in the Eagles' playoff opener against the New York Giants, he threw two TD passes and zero picks for a rating of 112.2.

Having missed two games and two Eagles defeats, Hurts heads into the NFC Championship Game with a 15-1 record as a starter this year, no doubt confident of improving that mark further against the 49ers.

In an intriguing battle that pits the league's best run offense (47.0 per cent success rate) versus its second-best run defense (32.1 per cent), Hurts can provide the X-factor.

The 49ers have shown few signs of weakness this year but did so against Marcus Mariota, another running QB, whose Atlanta Falcons ran the ball on 69.6 per cent of plays in Week 6 and were successful 43.6 per cent of the time.

The Eagles will have been watching the tape from that matchup to give Hurts the best possible chance to find joy against an otherwise fearsome defense.

Joe Burrow, Bengals @ Chiefs

Bengals cornerback Mike Hilton dubbed the Chiefs' home stadium, so terrifying for so many visiting teams, "Burrowhead" as Cincinnati prepared for their return in the AFC Championship Game.

Burrow went into Arrowhead last year and got the better of Mahomes, leading the Bengals to a third conference championship win in three attempts all-time.

Although the Los Angeles Rams then defeated the Bengals in the Super Bowl, Burrow has continued to show himself to be the man for the big occasion, taking down the much-fancied Buffalo Bills last week.

He has won five of his first six playoff starts, with only Brady (7-0), Russell Wilson (6-1) and Mahomes (6-1) winning six of their first seven since 1995.

So calm and composed, Burrow is an outstanding passer, ranking second in the league with his 68.2 completion percentage this year and third with his 85.9 well-thrown percentage.

His problem has long been a lack of protection from the Bengals' offensive line, with Burrow taking a league-leading 148 sacks since his debut season in 2020 – a campaign that was cut short by ACL and MCL tears sustained in one hit.

But Burrow took just one sack against the Bills, and the Bengals are consistently doing a better job in giving their QB time to make the pass – albeit with his help.

The Bengals have allowed a pressure rate of just 32.4 per cent this year, the fourth-best in the NFL, as Burrow has taken just 2.46 seconds to release the ball, the fifth-fastest average among QBs with 100 attempts.

It is Burrow's ability to work this quickly while maintaining a league-low pickable pass percentage of 1.53 that cuts him out as a star capable of again going to Kansas City and withstanding all they throw at him.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs Bengals

Mahomes is the one man who cannot be planned for. If he is on his game, there is surely no stopping the Chiefs superstar.

Happily for the Bengals, he was a long way from the Mahomes everyone knows in the second half of last year's AFC Championship Game, and his hopes of performing at peak level will be limited by injury this week.

A high ankle sprain would rule out just about any other QB, but Mahomes, no doubt determined to put right what went so wrong last year, is set to play.

Mahomes completed only eight of 18 passes after halftime in the Chiefs' 2021 defeat, throwing two interceptions for a remarkable passer rating of 12.3.

That was the sixth-lowest rating in the second half of a playoff game this century – not the sort of company the best QB in football is used to keeping.

But that passer rating in the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, when Mahomes was playing with an injury, was up at 110.7.

Even as he hobbled around the field, Mahomes was able to finish a fourth postseason game with a completion percentage above 70.0 (72.3) and multiple TD passes.

Only four players – Brady (six), Drew Brees (six), Troy Aikman (five) and Joe Montana (five) – have had more such performances. Mahomes has played just 12 playoff games in his career.

If that is the sort of form the Bengals can expect to find Mahomes in this week, with revenge on his mind, all the focus on that ankle might count for very little.

Seven teams have already clinched their place in the postseason and a further seven will join them in the final three weeks of the campaign.

This is the time of year when room for error is diminished in games that have a huge bearing on how the final playoff field shakes out.

As such, festive feeling will be thin on the ground for those teams playing in such encounters during this weekend's Christmas schedule who come up short.

So often, though, these contests are decided by the game within the game, and here Stats Perform looks at three of the most important Week 16 clashes and the personnel matchups that could decide them.

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

Win Probability: Patriots 52.0 per cent

Key Matchup: Matthew Judon and Josh Uche vs. Bengals offensive line

The Patriots' hopes of claiming a Wild Card berth took a massive blow in bizarre circumstances last week as Jakobi Meyers' inexplicable last-second lateral landed in the grateful arms of Las Vegas Raiders pass rusher Chandler Jones, who stiff-armed Mac Jones into the turf and raced into the endzone to deny New England a chance of an overtime win.

At 7-7, they are still just a game behind the Miami Dolphins and must climb off the mat, though they are this week tasked with doing so against one of the hottest teams in football.

The 10-4 Bengals have a one-game edge over the Baltimore Ravens in the race for the AFC North division title, yet there is a matchup the Patriots can look to exploit in this one.

While Cincinnati's offensive line has improved in terms of preventing pressure on Joe Burrow, it remains in the bottom half of the NFL in pass block win rate, in which the Bengals rank 24th.

In Judon and Uche, the Patriots possess a pair of pass rushers who can cause the Cincinnati O-Line huge problems. Judon is second in the NFL in sacks (14.5), behind only Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers, while Uche has 10.5, all of which have come across his last seven games.

Both Judon (40.08 per cent) and Uche (42.38 per cent) possess pass rush win rates way above the average for edge players of 28.74 per cent, and if they are at their best, they could help eradicate the advantage the Bengals have at quarterback and tilt the game in New England's favour.

Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs

Win Probability: Chiefs 80.4 per cent

Key Matchup: Seattle defensive backs vs. Chiefs receivers

Like the Patriots, the Seahawks' prospects of reaching the postseason are in significant jeopardy.

Their hopes of winning the NFC West are gone after the 49ers clinched the division title in Seattle by completing their first sweep of the Seahawks since 2011 in Week 15.

That leaves Seattle fighting for a Wild Card, and the odds are very much against them in this one against a Chiefs team who are in a battle for the AFC's one seed with the Buffalo Bills.

Part of the reason why the Seahawks are still in the mix is the play of their young but talented secondary, which ranks 13th in the NFL in pass coverage win rate according to Stats Perform's matchup data.

Rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen has enjoyed an outstanding first season for Seattle, with his combined open percentage allowed across man and zone coverage of 22.75 the seventh-best among corners with at least 100 total matchups.

The Chiefs' pass-catchers are 13th in terms of winning their coverage matchups in 2022, a year in which the loss of Tyreek Hill has undoubtedly had an impact.

Yet with 82.1 per cent of Patrick Mahomes' throws this season going to an open target, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid continues to excel at scheming receivers into space.

For the Seahawks to have any hope of pulling off a sizeable upset, their secondary must limit the chances for the Chiefs' receivers to enjoy such freedom.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Win Probability: Cowboys 59 per cent

Key Matchup: Eagles offensive line vs. Cowboys pass rush

This NFC East matchup may have lost some of its lustre with the Eagles needing a meltdown to surrender the division title to the Cowboys and Jalen Hurts out because of a shoulder injury.

But that should not take away from the true heavyweight fight this game provides in the trenches.

Micah Parsons may be losing ground in the Defensive Player of the Year race, but he remains the headline act for a defense that is first in the NFL in pass rush win rate.

That would normally give the Cowboys a clear edge in a matchup with every offensive line, but not with this one.

Philadelphia's O-line leads the league in pass block win rate, with the Eagles allowing a pressure rate of 32.9 per cent that is the fourth-best in the NFL.

The Eagles maintaining their strength up front against Parsons and Co. will obviously be critical to Philadelphia as they seek to overcome the absence of Hurts.

There is no substitute for the value Hurts brings in the run game, but the Cowboys' defense has shown enough vulnerability to suggest backup quarterback Gardner Minshew can have success against Dallas, provided the offensive line wins the battle up front and allows the Eagles to stay on schedule.

Nine teams have already clinched their place in the postseason, and there are seven teams with clinching scenarios in Week 17.

That should make for a fascinating slate of games in which the finer details that often prove decisive will be even more critical.

In a week where so many have so much to play for, Stats Perform has picked out the biggest games of the week and used its advanced data to break down the key matchups that could settle their outcomes.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Win Probability: Buccaneers 72.9 per cent

Key Matchup: Panthers' run game vs. Tampa Bay defense

The Buccaneers know the task in front of them at Raymond James Stadium: win and, despite an extremely underwhelming season, and they are in the playoffs as champions of the dismal NFC South.

Lose and the Panthers will have the lead of the division with the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay heading into the final week of the regular season.

Carolina stunningly prevailed 21-3 over Tampa Bay in Week 7 and the key to that win will again likely determine whether the Panthers can complete the sweep.

The Panthers averaged 6.4 yards per rush in that victory and head into this game on the back of racking up 320 yards on the ground in a dominant win over the Detroit Lions.

While Carolina had success running the ball against Tampa Bay in the previous meeting, the Buccaneers remain one of the better teams in the NFL defending the ground game. Indeed, their run success rate allowed of 33.7 per cent is tied for the fourth-best in the NFL.

If the Bucs can take away the Carolina ground game and force Sam Darnold to win the game on his arm, Tampa Bay figure to be excellently positioned to claim victory and the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Win Probability: Vikings 56.3 per cent

Key Matchup: Justin Jefferson vs. Jaire Alexander

Way back in Week 1, the Vikings cruised to a 23-7 win over the Packers that set the tone for hugely contrasting seasons. The Vikings have usurped the Packers as the dominant force in the NFC North, though each of their 11 wins since the season-opening defeat of Green Bay have been by one score.

Though the Vikings' ability to close out tight games has been extremely impressive, their inability to put teams away earlier gives them an air of vulnerability that Green Bay will look to exploit as the 7-8 Packers aim to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Still looking over their shoulders at the hottest team in football, the San Francisco 49ers, in the race for the second seed in the NFC, and within touching distance of the Philadelphia Eagles in the fight for the one seed, the Vikings have no shortage of motivation to make it two wins out of two against their biggest rivals this season.

Their simplest route to claiming a comfortable win over the Packers is to feed the man who shredded Green Bay in the season opener. Justin Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in that contest and has continued to embellish his resume as arguably the best wide receiver in football in 2022.

No receiver in the NFL has more receptions of 20 yards or more than Jefferson's 27 this season, and the Packers will be desperate to try to limit his impact at Lambeau Field.

The debate in Week 1 surrounded whether the Packers should have had cornerback Jaire Alexander shadow Jefferson and he will surely look to match up with the Vikings star this time around.

While not performing at his All-Pro level of 2020, Alexander is 23rd among outside cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps for burn rate, which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted. Alexander has allowed receivers to win their matchup on 33 of his 72 targets for a burn rate of 45.9 per cent.

Jefferson will still fancy he can get the better of Alexander and, coming off a strong performance against the Miami Dolphins, the latter's ability to contain one of the NFL's premier offensive weapons may have a significant bearing on whether the Packers are playing postseason football in the second full week of January.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

Win Probability: Bills 61.5 per cent

Key Matchup: Joe Burrow vs. Buffalo pass rush

The Bengals and Bills square off in one of the most significant Monday Night Football games in recent memory with both teams firmly in the mix for the one seed in the AFC.

Defeat for the Bills would likely give the Kansas City Chiefs, who face the Denver Broncos on Sunday, top spot going into Week 18, but it would also see the Bengals leapfrog them and put Cincinnati in position to potentially host two home playoff games. The Bengals also hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs but are a game back on Kansas City.

Even with a win in Buffalo, the Bengals would likely need help from the Las Vegas Raiders against the Chiefs in Week 18 to top the AFC. Their path to keeping those hopes alive with victory in Orchard Park surrounds the man who propelled Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last season, Joe Burrow.

Though the Bengals' offensive line has improved this year, it still ranks 24th in pass block win rate. Buffalo's defense, missing Von Miller following his season-ending knee injury, is fourth in pass rush win rate.

It is a mismatch on paper, but one Burrow can negate with his ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately.

Only Tom Brady (2.35 seconds) has a quicker average time to throw from snap to release than Burrow (2.45 seconds) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts, and the Cincinnati quarterback has again been devastatingly accurate with his ball placement. He has delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 per cent of attempts, the third-best ratio in the league (min. 200 throws).

Burrow is a quarterback who in his still young pro career has shone while under the biggest spotlights. Both he and a Buffalo defense minus the player recruited in the offseason to help put the Bills over the top, will hope to prove they are ready to deliver in the pressure cooker of the playoffs by producing a decisive performance in a game that will go a long way to deciding how complicated each team's path becomes.

Burrow was drafted at number one overall by the Bengals on Thursday to kick off the 2020 NFL Draft.

It is hoped he can steer a franchise that has not won a playoff game since 1990 and went 2-14 last season to a more successful future.

But the Bengals have a competent starting QB on the roster in the form of Dalton, who has steered the team to 70 wins in his nine years as the starter and is yet to be traded or released.

Hall of Famer Munoz spent 13 years on the Bengals' offensive line, from the 1980 season through to the 1992 campaign.

He does not think it would do Burrow any harm to compete with the 32-year-old Dalton and bide his time if beaten out.

Asked about the Bengals' playoff chances, Munoz told Stats Perform: "I think it depends on what happens to Andy Dalton.

"Andy is still here. I know they are trying to make some moves and when you have a young guy, regardless who it is, he's going to be your future quarterback.

"But I think competition is still the way to go. If Joe comes in and Andy is still here, and Andy is the guy to start because he's ahead of Joe, I don't think there is anything wrong with that.

"I look back to when Carson Palmer was the No.1 pick and we had Jon Kitna. Carson had the luxury of sitting one full year behind Jon, then came in and did a tremendous job.

"If he's ready right away put him in there, but again, if Dalton is here and it's obvious Dalton is the guy who can start out ahead of him and Joe can learn, I have no problem with that."

Munoz believes NFL rookies like Burrow will find it more difficult in 2020 with the coronavirus pandemic impacting offseason activities.

He said: "Of course we're dealing with COVID-19, so there is not going to be the OTAs (organised team activities) and the summer camp. Hopefully there is a shortened summer camp Joe will get a chance to go through.

"I think it's going to make it a little more difficult for these young guys coming in now. They're not going to have a lot of that experience they've had in the past before the preseason starts."

As well as watching the Bengals, Munoz devotes significant time to his charitable foundation which works to improve the lives of young people.

He said: "It's our 19th year, we started in 2002. The mission statement is to engage the tri-state area and to impact them mentally, physically and spiritually.

"We have seven programmes and we start working with elementary kids all the way through high school seniors going to college. It's a passion of mine. I love doing what we're doing."

Along its journey, the Anthony Munoz Foundation has touched the lives of over 40,000 youths. Nearly two decades later, the Foundation continues to impact Tri-State youth through 7 Impact Programs. For details, visit: https://www.munozfoundation.org/

Beckham was hurt during the Browns' 37-34 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.

The three-time Pro Bowler sustained the injury while trying to make a tackle after quarterback Baker Mayfield threw an interception with his first pass at Paul Brown Stadium.

Mayfield was attempting to find Beckham in the deep but instead hit Darius Phillips of the Bengals, who capitalised on the pick with a drive that ended with a touchdown run for Joe Burrow.

In a statement issued on Monday, the Browns confirmed an MRI scan showed Beckham has torn the ligament "and is expected to miss the rest of the season".

Beckham, who was traded from the New York Giants in March 2019, had 319 yards rushing and three touchdowns on 23 receptions prior to the Week 7 clash with the Bengals.

The 27-year-old's time in Cleveland has been undermined by persistent injuries. He suffered a hip and groin problem during training camp in 2019 and underwent surgery in January in a bid to correct the issue.

Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow claimed his first win as the Cincinnati Bengals overcame the Jacksonville Jaguars 33-25, while the Carolina Panthers caused an upset, beating the Arizona Cardinals 31-21. 

Both the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens rebounded from Week 3 reverses, but Los Angeles Chargers passer Justin Herbert came up short as he became the latest rookie QB to lose to a team led by Tom Brady. 

Elsewhere, in a battle between two previously winless teams, it was the Minnesota Vikings who triumphed, dropping the Houston Texans to 0-4.

BECKHAM OUTSHINES DAK WITH BIG DAY

Dallas knew all about Beckham's brilliance - it was against the Cowboys when he performed his astonishing one-handed touchdown grab as a rookie with the New York Giants - yet they failed to stop Cleveland's receiver grabbing two first-half touchdowns - one thrown by fellow wideout Jarvis Landry. 

The Browns were 41-14 up by the end of the third quarter but the Cowboys, who rallied from 29-10 down to beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2, came roaring back thanks to Dak Prescott, who had 502 passing yards and four touchdown throws. 

However, Beckham scored on a 50-yard end-around run to seal Cleveland's 49-38 win, with Dallas' nemesis going off for 154 yards from scrimmage and three scores.

SEAHAWKS SURVIVE MIAMI TEST

Seven teams began Week 4 with a perfect 3-0 record and Seattle became the first to go 4-0, securing a 31-23 win over the Miami Dolphins. 

Russell Wilson threw for 360 yards and two touchdowns - giving him 16 already for the season - while running back Chris Carson also found the end zone twice and the Seahawks defense picked off a couple of Ryan Fitzpatrick passes. 

Fellow preseason Super Bowl favourites New Orleans and Baltimore got back on track, the Saints triumphing 35-29 over the Lions while the Ravens defeated the Washington Football Team 31-17, during which Lamar Jackson becoming the quickest in NFL history to reach 5,000 career passing yards and 2,000 yards rushing.

BURROW GETS FIRST W, HERBERT COMES CLOSE TO UPSTAGING BRADY

First overall pick Burrow led the Bengals to their first victory of the 2020 campaign, though it was Joe Mixon's 181 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns that really made the difference against the Jaguars. 

Herbert, another opening-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, looked on course for his maiden NFL win too, the Chargers racing into a 24-7 lead thanks in part to a Brady pick-six. 

However, Brady, whose teams had won their previous 10 straight games against rookie QBs, would end the high-scoring contest with five touchdown passes, Tampa Bay triumphing 38-31. 

Week 4 scores:

Seattle Seahawks 31-23 Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals 33-25 Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings 31-23 Houston Texans
Cleveland Browns 49-38 Dallas Cowboys
Baltimore Ravens 31-17 Washington Football Team
New Orleans Saints 35-29 Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers 31-21 Arizona Cardinals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38-31 Los Angeles Chargers

The Cincinnati Bengals opened the 2020 draft on Thursday by picking who they hope will be their franchise quarterback for the next decade. They opened round two on Friday by getting Joe Burrow a weapon, drafting Tee Higgins with the 33rd pick.

Twenty picks later came the biggest story of the second round with the Philadelphia Eagles grabbing Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts at number 53.

Hurts led Alabama to back-to-back national championship games as a freshman and sophomore before famously being benched for Tua Tagovailoa, and then led the Sooners to a Big 12 title this past season as a senior while garnering third-team AP All-American honors. He is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback that now joins an Eagles offense that is already led by an established QB in Carson Wentz.

Hurts ended up being the only quarterback selected on day two after both Jacob Eason from Washington and Jake Fromm from Georgia were passed over.

Higgins' selection continued the trend from the first round of wide receivers being gobbled up. After six receivers were drafted in the first round, seven went in the second. The 13 receivers selected in the first two rounds are the most taken through two rounds in draft history, breaking the record of 12 from 2014.

Higgins had 25 touchdown catches over the past two seasons with Clemson, the most by an ACC player in a two-year span since North Carolina State's Torry Holt had 27 from 1997-98.

One pick after Higgins was drafted, the Indianapolis Colts picked USC wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who tied for the FBS lead last season with four games of 10 or more receptions.

A run on running backs was expected for day two after only one went in the first round, and it did not take long for the first one to be selected, with the Detroit Lions taking Georgia's D'Andre Swift at number 35.

After playing behind Nick Chubb and Sony Michel as a freshman in 2017, Swift amassed 2,267 rushing yards in his final two years with the Bulldogs. He averaged 6.55 yards per carry in his collegiate career, second best in SEC history behind Bo Jackson's 6.62 (minimum 400 carries).

Six picks later, the Colts continued to build their offense, selecting three-time All-American running back Jonathon Taylor out of Wisconsin. In just three seasons, Taylor rushed for 6,174 yards and his average of 150.6 rushing yards per game are the third most by a major conference player all time, behind O.J. Simpson (164.4) and Herschel Walker (159.4).

Three more backs were selected before the end of the second round with the Los Angeles Rams taking Florida State's Cam Akers at number 52, the Baltimore Ravens drafting J.K. Dobbins from Ohio State at 55 and the Green Bay Packers selecting Boston College's AJ Dillon at 62.

Not technically listed as a running back, though he carried the ball plenty of times at Kentucky, All-American Lynn Bowden was one of the more interesting picks of day two when he was selected with the 80th overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders. 

The do-it-all playmaker started at receiver and quarterback as a junior in 2019, running the wildcat offense at QB, finishing the season with 1,468 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs as well as 348 receiving yards. It will be intriguing to see how he will be used in Jon Gruden's offense. 

While the 2020 draft kicked off with Burrow being selected out of LSU, linebacker Jacob Phillips became the 10th player chosen from LSU when he was picked by the Cleveland Browns at number 97. The 10 players out of LSU are the most from one school through three rounds in the history of the draft.

The third round concluded with the Baltimore Ravens selecting guard Tyre Phillips out of Mississippi State. He became the 15th player out of the SEC selected in the third round after 10 SEC players were drafted in the second, a day after a record 15 first-round picks came from the SEC.

New England went into Sunday's heavyweight clash having won five successive games, and their ability to produce turnovers proved key in extending that streak to six.

Tennessee, minus their top offensive playmakers in injured running back Derrick Henry and wide receiver A.J. Brown, committed four giveaways while the Patriots produced a flawless game in that regard, rookie quarterback Mac Jones recording his second 300-yard passing game of a stellar first season.

Both teams now stand at 8-4, with the Patriots' victory giving them the tiebreaker, with another test of New England's Super Bowl credentials to come a week on Monday when they face AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills (7-4) on the road.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's touchdown reception and a 68-yard rushing score from Dontrell Hilliard meant the Titans only trailed 16-13 at half-time.

But their first two drives of the second half, sandwiched by a field goal for New England, ended in a fumble and a punt and Tennessee's slow start to the third quarter was exacerbated when Kendrick Bourne's 41-yard catch and run for his second touchdown of the day gave the Patriots a 26-13 lead.

The Titans drove to New England's two-yard line in response, only for Ryan Tannehill to see a fourth-down pass to Cody Hollister tipped and intercepted by J.C. Jackson.

That allowed the Patriots to stretch the lead with Nick Folk's fifth field goal and, after another failed fourth-down attempt from Tannehill, Damien Harris capped things off for New England with a 14-yard run as they sent an emphatic message to the rest of the AFC.

FOURnette stars as Bucs win Colts thriller

Defending Super Bowl champions the Tampa Bay Buccaneers trailed by 10 points at the end of the half in a see-saw battle with the Indianapolis Colts.

But five Colts turnovers tipped the balance in the favour of the Bucs, Leonard Fournette's fourth touchdown securing a 38-31 victory and a 51st game-winning drive for Tom Brady, putting him three shy of Peyton Manning's all-time record, despite a late 71-yard kickoff return from Isaiah Rodgers that almost forced overtime.

The Bucs (8-3) have a commanding lead atop the NFC South, with the Carolina Panthers' defeat to the Miami Dolphins dropping them to 5-7. The 6-6 Colts remain firmly in the Wild Card picture in the AFC.

Bengals sweep Steelers

The Cincinnati Bengals moved within half a game of the AFC North lead as they completed their first season sweep of the Pittsburgh Steelers since the 2009 season.

It was a feat they achieved in style with a 41-10 rout, running back Joe Mixon the star of the show with 165 rushing yards and two touchdowns, with Joe Burrow's lone touchdown throw to Tee Higgins his 10th of 30 or more yards this season.

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger endured a miserable day, throwing two interceptions and suffering three sacks to drop Pittsburgh to 5-5-1. The 7-4 Bengals will end the day atop the division if the Baltimore Ravens lose to the Cleveland Browns later on Sunday.

New England went into Sunday's heavyweight clash having won five successive games, and their ability to produce turnovers proved key in extending that streak to six.

Tennessee, minus their top offensive playmakers in injured running back Derrick Henry and wide receiver A.J. Brown, committed four giveaways while the Patriots produced a flawless game in that regard, rookie quarterback Mac Jones recording his second 300-yard passing game of a stellar first season.

Both teams now stand at 8-4, with the Patriots' victory giving them the tiebreaker over the Titans, with another test of New England's Super Bowl credentials to come a week on Monday when they face AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills (7-4) on the road.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's touchdown reception and a 68-yard rushing score from Dontrell Hilliard meant the Titans only trailed 16-13 at half-time.

But their first two drives of the second half, sandwiched by a field goal for New England, ended in a fumble and a punt and Tennessee's slow start to the third quarter was exacerbated when Kendrick Bourne's 41-yard catch and run for his second touchdown of the day gave the Patriots a 26-13 lead.

The Titans drove to New England's two-yard line in response, only for Ryan Tannehill to see a fourth-down pass to Cody Hollister tipped and intercepted by J.C. Jackson.

That allowed the Patriots to stretch the lead with Nick Folk's fifth field goal and, after another failed fourth-down attempt from Tannehill, Damien Harris capped things off for New England with a 14-yard run as they sent an emphatic message to the rest of the AFC.

FOURnette stars as Bucs win Colts thriller

Defending Super Bowl champions the Tampa Bay Buccaneers trailed by 10 points at the end of the half in a see-saw battle with the Indianapolis Colts.

But five Colts turnovers tipped the balance in the favour of the Bucs, Leonard Fournette's fourth touchdown securing a 38-31 victory and a 51st game-winning drive for Tom Brady, putting him three shy of Peyton Manning's all-time record, despite a late 71-yard kickoff return from Isaiah Rodgers that almost forced overtime.

The Bucs (8-3) have a commanding lead atop the NFC South, with the Carolina Panthers' defeat to the Miami Dolphins dropping them to 5-7. The 6-6 Colts remain firmly in the Wild Card picture in the AFC.

Bengals sweep Steelers

The Cincinnati Bengals moved within half a game of the AFC North lead as they completed their first season sweep of the Pittsburgh Steelers since the 2009 season.

It was a feat they achieved in style with a 41-10 rout, running back Joe Mixon the star of the show with 165 rushing yards and two touchdowns, with Joe Burrow's lone touchdown throw to Tee Higgins his 10th of 30 or more yards this season.

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger endured a miserable day, throwing two interceptions and suffering three sacks to drop Pittsburgh to 5-5-1. The 7-4 Bengals will end the day atop the division if the Baltimore Ravens, who own the top seed with Titans' defeat, lose to the Cleveland Browns later on Sunday.

Turns out, it might actually have been Odell Beckham Jr.

It remains to be seen whether Mayfield can be the long-term answer at quarterback but, with Beckham getting his wish and being allowed to move on to as yet undetermined pastures new, Cleveland's signal-caller and the Browns flourished in Week 9.

Cleveland stomped Cincinnati 41-16 on the road sans Beckham in what was a clear case of addition by subtraction.

One of the biggest stars of that stunning blowout win was a receiver likely to receive an increased role in Cleveland's passing attack in the wake of Beckham's departure, with Donovan Peoples-Jones stepping up and delivering a huge play in a season that has provided more evidence he was a steal for the Browns in the sixth round of last year's draft.

Peoples-Jones proves his worth

Peoples-Jones broke the game open in the second quarter with a 60-yard touchdown catch from Mayfield, giving the Browns a two-touchdown advantage that the Bengals never threatened to eat into.

It served as a demonstration of Peoples-Jones' strengths as a route-runner, the former Michigan star getting separation from Eli Apple with a corner-post route as the Browns struck gold on a play-action shot against quarters coverage.

Mayfield's deep ball was not deadly accurate, but Peoples-Jones did an excellent job of adjusting his route to flight of the throw to haul it in and stroll into the endzone.

Targeted just three times in the game, Peoples-Jones finished as the Browns' leading receiver with 86 yards, taking full advantage of his limited opportunities.

His second and final catch of the day saw Peoples-Jones display those same traits that shone through on his touchdown, helping the Browns convert on third-and-11 in the fourth quarter with the game in hand.

This time, he defeated man coverage with a jab step to the right and swim move akin to that of a pass rusher, gaining outside leverage and separation before looking the ball into his grasp and hanging on despite a thumping hit from Bengals safety Jessie Bates II.

That ability to create separation has been a constant for Peoples-Jones this season. He has produced a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted, 77.8 per cent of the time, the league average among receivers with at least 10 targets is 60.5.

Peoples-Jones' burn yards per target average of 17.91 is third among receivers who meet that 10-target threshold, while his big-play rate of 48.3 per cent is fifth.

Targeted only 18 times this season, those gaudy numbers are partially a product of a small sample size, but his 2020 performance in those same metrics suggests he would continue to perform efficiently with a more substantial role in the offense.

While his burn percentage of 65 was not as impressive, Peoples-Jones ended last season third in burn yards per target (17.11) and ninth in big-play rate (42.6 per cent).

Peoples-Jones is proving himself as a consistent downfield threat who wins with route-running, size and concentration at the catch point. His is a skill set conducive to long-term success, and that is something he should be able to enjoy playing on an offense where the strength of the run game gives the Browns plenty of strong passing game looks.

Bengals mauled by Browns run game

Like so many before them, the Bengals had no answer for Nick Chubb and the Cleveland running game. Chubb racked up his third 100-yard game of the season, averaging a remarkable 9.79 yards per carry and scoring two touchdowns.

He ripped off runs of 23, 22, 13 and 10 yards along with a 70-yard score that illustrated just how devastating the Browns' ground game can be when at its best.

Running from a three-tight end set, the Browns pulled right guard Wyatt Teller to the second level, where he executed a devastating block on Bates. Left tackle Jedrick Wills and left guard Joel Bitonio were similarly ruthless against Logan Wilson and Josh Tupou while tight end Austin Hooper and center J.C. Tretter sealed off their defenders.

That opened a gaping running lane for Chubb, who burst through into the secondary, with the aid of impressive downfield blocking from Harrison Bryant, and surged clear, leaving helpless defenders in his wake.

Chubb is now tied for the league lead with 22 rushes of 10 yards or more and, as that touchdown showed, he and the Browns can produce those backbreaking plays even when lined up in an obvious run formation against a defense playing a safety in the box.

With Cleveland consistently carrying that threat on the ground, receivers can benefit, with the danger posed by Chubb and Co. facilitating a play-action game that can deliver the kind of results Peoples-Jones produced on his touchdown.

It has been an uneven season for the Browns but at 5-4 they are still in the mix in a muddled AFC and still have a formula for success as long as that rushing attack is functioning as it did in Week 9.

That formula does not require Beckham. It is one that can work with young wideouts like Peoples-Jones, who has the traits to excel for a long time at the highest level and has proven he deserves increased opportunities.

When the Browns traded for Beckham back in 2019, he looked like a potential missing piece for a team primed to consistently contend. However, Peoples-Jones' performance in the first game since his contentious departure should leave Cleveland confident the void he leaves will not be at all difficult to fill.

Burrow, the presumptive number one overall pick for the Cincinnati Bengals, reached out to two-time Super Bowl champion Manning ahead of Thursday's draft.

Manning advised Burrow, who is coming off a historic college season with LSU that ended in a National Championship, not to expect immediate success at the highest level.

He felt his difficult experiences as a number one overall pick in 1998 with the Indianapolis Colts set the foundations for a Hall of Fame NFL career, and urged the young signal caller to keep the long-term in mind.

"Yeah, Joe called me last week," Manning said to ESPN. "Obviously we have somewhat of a relationship since he came down to our football camp last summer. 

"I try to stay in touch with all the quarterbacks that come down to the camp if I can be a resource for them, especially as they approach their NFL dreams with what an exciting year Joe had.

"He called me about some of the things that I tried to do when I was a rookie that maybe he can apply to his NFL career - looks like it's going to be with the Cincinnati Bengals.

"I said, 'Joe, when you're the first pick in the NFL Draft, you are going to a team that has really earned the first pick in the NFL Draft'. There are going to be some holes there and there's a reason the Colts are picking number one that year, there's a reason the Bengals are picking number one this year.

"So other people have to step up, have to give him some help. But I tried to tell him it's a marathon, not a sprint."

Manning joked that he would be happy to see Burrow, 23, break one of his many NFL records – the mark for most interceptions as a rookie. 

"Look, I lost more games my rookie year than I had my entire high school and college career combined," said Manning.

"I threw 28 interceptions – that's still an NFL record. If Joe wants to break that, I'd be okay with that - we'd still be friends! 

"But I tried to learn a lot that year. I played every game. Jim Mora never took me out, I learned some things in the fourth quarter of those blowouts about what it took to be an NFL quarterback.

"The next year we went from 3-13 to 13-3. That wouldn't have happened had I not hung in there and kind of learned the ropes as a rookie even though we took some bumps and bruises. 

"So that's what I tried to encourage Joe and all the NFL quarterbacks, that your rookie year is not gonna be the same as your senior year in college.

"But if you learn how fast these defensive backs are, how soon you have to get rid of the ball, understand defenses, you can become a better player and really get it going a year or two after that."

Warning signs were there early that it may not be the Vikings' day as Defensive Player of the Year favourite Micah Parsons came roaring around the edge for a strip-sack, forcing a turnover from Minnesota's third play of the game.

In his return from injury, Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott scored the game's first touchdown, and his backfield partner Tony Pollard made it 14-3 in the second quarter when he took a short pass down the sideline for his own touchdown.

Pollard would strike again to begin the second half, this time getting on the end of a deep pass from Dak Prescott for a 68-yard touchdown, and it was 37-3 late in the third quarter after Elliott also forced his way in from the one-yard line for his second score.

Prescott completed a terrific 22 of his 25 passes to set a new season-high completion percentage (88 per cent), tallying 276 yards, and it was the first game this campaign he did not take a single sack.

Pollard and Elliott finished with 15 carries each, while Pollard also collected 109 receiving yards from six catches.

In his past three games, Pollard has had 326 rushing yards, 138 receiving yards and six touchdowns.

Adams delivers walk-off winner for Las Vegas

In a low-scoring, grinding contest, the Las Vegas Raiders needed some brilliance in overtime from Davante Adams to defeat the Denver Broncos 22-16.

There were no touchdowns in the second half as both sides continued to fight for field goals, and the Raiders came back to tie it at 16-16 after mounting a crucial drive with less than two minutes remaining in regulation.

In overtime, the Raiders won the toss and opted to receive the ball first, and it paid off. After a deep completion down the middle to Foster Moreau, Adams completely shook his coverage and got himself wide open for the game-winning score.

Adams finished with seven catches for 141 yards and both of the Raiders' touchdowns.