There is a thrilling three-horse race for the Premier League title as we approach the run-in, but there is also another tussle on the cards.
The Golden Boot is up for grabs, with Erling Haaland having not quite hit the same heights as he did last season, when he broke the Premier League record for goals, with 36.
Manchester City star Haaland is, as it stands, level with his former club-mate Cole Palmer at the top of the competition’s scoring charts, with 20 goals apiece.
Palmer, who will go up against his old club in the FA Cup semi-finals this weekend, moved way up in the charts after he netted four times in Chelsea’s 6-0 rout of Everton on Monday.
But with Palmer and Haaland in FA Cup action, there are plenty of other Golden Boot candidates looking to take advantage and nudge themselves to the front of the pack.
Using Opta data, we assess the numbers behind the players vying for this individual accolade.
Erling Haaland (20)
Sure, Haaland might not quite have scaled the same heights as last season, but he has still scored 20 goals in 26 league games, scoring a goal every 109 minutes on average.
However, the Norwegian has actually underperformed his expected goals (xG) of 23.7 – that 3.7 differential is actually the biggest xG underperformance of any player on this list.
What about Haaland’s expected goals on target (xGOT)? That metric can be used to measure the quality of a player’s finishing, and Haaland’s xGOT of 20.3 suggests the 23-year-old is about on track based on where he has been placing his shots.
Haaland has also chipped in with five assists, giving him an overall goal contributions tally of 25. He has created 28 goalscoring chances for team-mates across the campaign.
Of course, Haaland is a penalty box poacher – 16 of his goals have come from inside the area, while 14 of them have come with his stronger left foot.
Cole Palmer (20)
Palmer has stolen the show this season for Chelsea, and is arguably the Blues’ driving force behind their push for European football.
Having signed from City last summer, Palmer has made an instant impact despite only playing 27 times – he averages a goal every 103 minutes, which is better than any of the other candidates featured here.
He scored a perfect hat-trick in the first half of the demolition of Everton, before adding a fourth from the penalty spot after the break – that was Palmer’s ninth successfully converted spot-kick in the league this term.
Unlike Haaland, Palmer has overperformed his xG (15), with his non-penalty xG coming in at 7.9, while also proving his creative talents with nine assists from 53 chances created, which ranks behind only Mohamed Salah (60) of players featured here.
Those 29 goal contributions are matched by only one other Premier League player…
Ollie Watkins (19)
One goal behind Palmer and Haaland, and someone who will be looking to get ahead when Aston Villa face Bournemouth on Sunday, is England international Watkins.
A deft chip in Villa’s brilliant 2-0 win over Arsenal last time out brought up Watkins’ 19th top-flight goal of the campaign – he is now the club’s joint-leading scorer in a single season in the Premier League, matching Christian Benteke (2012-13).
What separates Watkins from Palmer and Haaland is his minutes per goal ratio – Watkins has netted every 147 minutes on average, which is 44 minutes worse off than Palmer and 38 than Haaland.
However, with 10 assists, the former Brentford forward leads the goal contributions charts along with Palmer. Interestingly, however, Watkins’ assists have come from an expected assists (xA) of just 3.6, suggesting he has been the benefactor of some particularly excellent finishing from his Villa team-mates.
A goal against Bournemouth on Sunday would see Watkins become just the third English player to score 20+ goals and assist 10+ goals in a 38-game season, along with Frank Lampard in 2009-10 (22 goals, 14 assists) and Harry Kane in 2020-21 (23 goals, 14 assists)
Watkins has proved to be a deadly finisher under Unai Emery, though the trick for opposing defences could be to prevent him getting space in the area to begin with, given that all 19 of his goals have come from inside the box. Obviously, that is easier said than done.
Mohamed Salah (17)
Liverpool will be hoping to bounce back from their damaging defeat to Crystal Palace last week when they take on Fulham on Sunday, and key to the Reds’ clinching success in Jurgen Klopp’s farewell tour will surely be the form of Salah.
Since sustaining an injury at the Africa Cup of Nations, Salah has not quite hit top form, but he has still netted 17 goals across 26 league appearances this term, though five of those have been penalties.
With an xGOT of 18.4, Salah can point to some above average goalkeeping as a reason for a small underperformance.
Creatively, Salah has been excellent, providing nine assists and crafting 60 opportunities, but the Reds will need him at his very best in the run-in.
Alexander Isak (17)
Isak was at the double in Newcastle United’s 4-0 thrashing of Tottenham last time out. He has now scored 12 goals in as many Premier League appearances at St James’ Park this season.
His opener against Spurs saw him become the fourth player to score in six consecutive Premier League home matches for Newcastle, with only Andrew Cole (eight) and Alan Shearer (15) having longer such runs, with Isak now level with Les Ferdinand’s best such run. The only other Swede to have netted as many Premier League goals in a single campaign as Isak has this term is the great Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who scored 17 times for Manchester United in 2016-17.
Only Palmer has a better minutes per goal ratio than Isak (104) of the players on this list, while he has overperformed his xG by 1.1.
Isak has not provided quite as much creatively as others on this list, providing just one assist, but his 28.3 per cent shot conversion rate tops this list by some distance, with Palmer (24.4) next best.
Dominic Solanke (17)
Another player on 17 goals, and the final selection here, is Bournemouth talisman Solanke.
His 18.1 per cent shot conversion rate may short fall of the other stars on this list, but Solanke is having a fantastic season, having become Bournemouth’s top Premier League goalscorer in a single campaign, surpassing Joshua King’s tally of 16 from the 2016-17 season.
Only one of Solanke’s strikes has come from the spot, with the 26-year-old outperforming his 15.7 non-penalty xG, though his minutes per goal ratio of 167 is quite a stark drop-off from most of his Golden Boot rivals.
The Chasing Pack
Former Golden Boot winner Son Heung-min (15), Jarrod Bowen (15), Bukayo Saka (14) and Phil Foden (14) are all well in the hunt.
The fact that 10 players are within six goals of each other shows just how tight this Golden Boot race is shaping up to be, though the chasing pack are running out of time if they are to make a late push for the award.
Vardy eyes 100-point season after Leicester's title win
Jamie Vardy has challenged his Leicester City team-mates to reach 100 points after sealing the Championship title with one game to spare.
The Foxes were promoted back to the Premier League without kicking a ball after Leeds United’s 4-0 defeat to QPR on Friday, but they needed to win on Monday to earn top spot.
Enzo Maresca’s side cruised to a 3-0 victory over Preston through Vardy’s brace and Kasey McAteer’s header, moving them to 97 points.
With one last milestone in their reach, Vardy wants to make sure they end an already successful season on a high.
Speaking to Sky Sports, he said: “We can celebrate it tonight, but now we have another target which is 100 points.
“We are over the moon. It has gone by quick but it's a graft. Not many days off, I'll tell you that.
“The lads - they've given it all. Thoroughly deserved, and I'm glad we've had 5000 to come and celebrate with us. It's not like it's 20 minutes up the road."
After a run of just three victories from nine games in the league between mid-February and April, Leicester have now won each of their last three outings.
Maresca has praised his players for their hard work in what he labelled a “tough season”.
“Fantastic, it's been a fantastic season. The Championship is a tough season and very intense, but I'm very happy," said Maresca.
"Now it's time to enjoy the work of the season to bring this special club back to the Premier League. We deserve it.
“The last two days they have been fantastic. We got promoted, but it was difficult in game preparation. But we used all of today to prepare for the game, the morning and afternoon. It was good.”
Barcelona 4-2 Valencia: Lewandowski hat-trick leads Barca to 4-2 win over 10-man Valencia
Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski scored a second-half hat-trick to help his side fight back to claim a hard-fought 4-2 win over Valencia, who were leading 2-1 when they were reduced to 10 men just before the break.
Fermin Lopez's header from a Raphinha cross put Barca in front after 22 minutes, but Valencia's Hugo Duro struck in the 27th and Pepelu scored from the spot after a foul by Ronald Araujo 11 minutes later to give the visitors the lead.
But after Valencia keeper Giorgi Mamardashvili saw red for a handball outside the box before the break, Xavi's side dominated and Lewandowski scored with two headers from corners in the 49th and 82nd minutes before getting his treble with a free-kick in added time.
The win postponed Real Madrid's almost inevitable LaLiga title celebrations for a couple of weeks as Carlo Ancelotti's side sit atop the standings on 84 points.
Barcelona moved back to second in LaLiga on Monday with 73 points as they leapfrogged surprise package Girona, who are third with 71. Those two teams will meet in a Catalonia derby on Saturday.
Data debrief
Barcelona conceded two goals in the first half of a home game for the second time this season, after also doing so against Girona in LaLiga in December 2023.
However, Lewandowski's goals have been invaluable to La Blaugrana this season as he's earned 17 points with his 16 goals in the league.
Kimmich ready to open Bayern Munich talks amid Barcelona speculation
Joshua Kimmich is ready to open talks with Bayern Munich over his future at the club amid speculation linking him with Barcelona.
The Germany international has spent nine years at the Allianz Arena, but he is due to become a free agent at the end of the 2024-25 campaign.
Barca have been repeatedly linked with Kimmich in recent transfer windows and are said to retain an interest ahead of next season.
Speaking to Spanish outlet AS, the midfielder talked up Barca - as well as fierce rivals Real Madrid - but fell short of saying he is open to a move.
"I want to talk to Bayern. When I do that, I won't go out and talk to the press about it," he said.
"I'm not thinking about this. I will speak to Bayern first. But of course, Barcelona and Real Madrid are amazing clubs with an amazing history."
Kimmich has played 37 times in all competitions this season for Bayern, whose last remaining hope of silverware is in the Champions League.
Bayern will face Real Madrid over two legs for a place in the final, with the first match in that double-header taking place in Bavaria on Tuesday.
Thomas Tuchel will depart the dethroned Bundesliga champions at the end of the season, with Ralf Rangnick the favourite to succeed him.
The managerial uncertainty is not helping with regards to the Kimmich rumours, but he insists that will not be a deciding factor on his future.
"It's not the most important thing right now," he said. "I know that when you sign a contract you don't sign it with the coach.
"You sign it with the club. For me, the most important thing is the club, not just the coach.
"But it's also important to know what the coach thinks about you and the team. Other people in the club can worry about choosing the coach."
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