While the Premier League title race unfolds, there is another tussle playing out at the bottom.
And this weekend, six of the teams at the wrong end of the table fight it out against each other.
On Saturday, Luton Town will hope to propel themselves out of the relegation zone by overcoming Brentford at Kenilworth Road, though the 15th-placed Bees will know that another win could all but end their worries of dropping down to the Championship.
At the same time, the two bottom clubs go head-to-head at Bramall Lane, with Sheffield United hosting Burnley. Both the Blades and the Clarets look likely to go down, though if either are to survive, then taking three points from this one is a must.
Sunday’s early game is a huge one at Goodison Park, as Everton and Nottingham Forest – both impacted by points deductions for breaches of Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) – face off. The Toffees are 16th, a point better off than the Tricky Trees, but Sean Dyche’s team are on a dismal run of just one win in 15 league matches.
Crystal Palace are perhaps not out of the woods just yet, though after their stunning win at Anfield last time out, the Eagles will hope to carry on the momentum when they face West Ham.
And using Opta data, we can assess the likelihood of the Premier League relegation scrap, as well as the underlying metrics behind each of these teams.
Let’s work from the top down.
Palace, after that shock 1-0 win over Liverpool, are now not considered to be relegation candidates by Opta’s predictive model, which gives them a 46.5 per cent chance of staying right where they are in 14th.
The Eagles are six points clear of Everton in 17th, and while not mathematically safe, Oliver Glasner’s team are certainly within touching distance.
It is worth noting, though, that according to the Opta power rankings, Palace have the most difficult run-in of all these seven teams, with the average rating of their remaining opponents coming in at 87.9. Like the Toffees and Sheffield United, Palace have six matches left to play, though they do not play any of the teams below them in that run.
Next come Brentford. The Bees have five games remaining but, with 33 points, are likely just a win away from tying up their safety, and they will be hoping that comes against Luton (as well Everton and Forest fans).
According to Opta’s model, Brentford have the second-easiest fixture list of any team in the league, with their average opponent rating of 85.1 higher only than Newcastle United’s (84.1).
The Bees do, though, face a trip to Everton after they head to Luton, so should the worst occur and they lose those matches, then Thomas Frank’s team could find themselves firmly back in danger. As it stands, Brentford’s chances of going down are a meagre 0.3 per cent.
Brentford are the second-worst expected goals underperformers in the competition this season, having scored six fewer goals than would have been anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they have created, suggesting that with better finishing, and a bit more luck, they would likely be clear of danger already.
And if that can be said for Brentford, then it can be emphatically repeated for 16th-placed Everton.
Even factoring in the eight points that have been taken off them this term, Everton – who were thrashed 6-0 by Chelsea on Monday – could have been out of danger had they simply come close to matching their xG. They are by far the Premier League’s biggest underperformers when it comes to that metric – Dyche’s side have scored 32 goals (which ranks 19th in the league) from an xG of 48, a whopping underperformance of 16.
Sunday’s clash with Forest kick-starts a huge week of home games for the Toffees, with a Merseyside derby against Liverpool following on April 24, before Brentford then visit Goodison Park.
With Forest, Brentford, Luton and Sheffield United among their final four fixtures, Everton should still have some confidence – they have taken seven points off those sides already this term, and a repeat of that could be enough, though a final-day away outing at Arsenal is ominous, given the Toffees have shipped nine goals in their last two visits to Emirates Stadium. Opta predicts they will stay up, but Everton do have an 8.9 per cent chance of slipping out of the top tier for the first time in over 70 years.
Below them, Forest will no doubt have been buoyed by Everton’s sorry performance at Stamford Bridge. However, Nuno Espirito Santo’s team do have a rather sizeable 29.9 per cent chance of going down, so a victory at Goodison Park could be vital.
Especially considering Forest’s next fixture comes against Manchester City, albeit it is at home, where they also face Chelsea in between away clashes with Sheffield United and Burnley.
Perhaps worrying for Forest, however, is that in their three matches against Everton, the Blades and Burnley this term, they have taken only four points. Interestingly, while Forest have shipped 58 goals – a figure which betters only the bottom three, they have been unfortunate to concede so many based on their expected goals against (xGA), which is actually the sixth best in the league at 47.4.
Then we have Luton. The Hatters have been one of the stories of the season, and despite their small budget have a brilliant chance of survival.
That being said, Opta’s predictive model does anticipate they will go down, with Rob Edwards’ side having a 54.3 per cent chance of finishing where they are in 18th, with their chances of finishing in 17th being 29.6 per cent.
Victory over Brentford, who beat them 3-1 earlier in the campaign, would see Luton move out of the bottom three, though, and with five games left, they do have what is considered a relatively easy run-in when it comes to the average rating of those teams they are going up against, at 85.4.
That being said, Luton’s defensive record this season is awful. The Hatters have shipped 70 goals from an xGA of 69.7. They will need to tighten up if they are to complete the great escape.
What about the bottom two?
Well, they are perhaps down and out. After visiting South Yorkshire on Saturday, Vincent Kompany’s Burnley team have to go to Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium either side of hosting Newcastle, and Opta’s predictive model suggests they will go down – they have just a 1.6 per cent chance of survival.
There is an even smaller chance of the Blades, who are 20th, staying up, at just 0.2 per cent.
Chris Wilder’s team are the team with the fewest goals scored in the top flight, at 30, while they have conceded 84 – the worst in the division, and while victory over the Clarets would provide a morale-boost, the Blades seemed destined for the Championship.
PSG boss Luis Enrique expects entertainment in Champions League semi-final with Dortmund
Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund served up plenty of entertainment in the Champions League quarter-finals, and their last-eight meeting promises more of the same, says Luis Enrique.
Both sides came back from first-leg defeats to reach the semi-finals, PSG winning 4-1 in Barcelona after a 3-2 loss in the French capital and Dortmund downing Atletico Madrid 4-2 to recover from their loss in Spain.
"I think that is the way it went in the quarter-finals based on the playing style of Dortmund and the way that we play," PSG head coach Luis Enrique told a press conference.
"I think it could be a wonderful spectacle, not just for the two fan bases, but for everybody who loves football. I think there will be goals, given the quality and the ability to reach the opposition goal on both teams."
PSG had never before overturned a first-leg defeat at home in the Champions League, and while the Spaniard believes it can help his players, he also knows that history counts for little at this stage.
"I do hope it liberates us because this is something that we haven't done before after losing the first leg. I also have experience that shows how important it is to be competitive tomorrow," Luis Enrique said.
"What we achieved previously doesn't matter. History is great, but our goal is to win tomorrow. We don't want to leave it to chance and think about the second leg at the Parc des Princes."
History may weigh on the minds of PSG, too, given they have lost all four games of their previous two-legged Champions League semi-final ties – against Milan in 1994-95 and Manchester City in 2020-21.
The Parisians did win their one-legged last-four meeting with RB Leipzig in the disrupted 2019-20 season, though, while Dortmund have reached the final on two of their three semi-final appearances.
Dortmund and PSG have already met in this season's competition as well, with the German side topping their group, but PSG beat them at Parc des Princes and managed a 1-1 draw in the away meeting.
Luis Enrique thinks his team, who secured their third consecutive Ligue 1 title on Sunday, have improved since then – and suggested there is even more to come.
"We have improved in all areas. We are better defensively, better going forward," the former Barcelona boss continued.
"We can keep improving for sure. And that is one of the characteristics of our way of managing the club and the team, by trying to be demanding, not thinking that everything is done."
PSG appear favourites to go through given Dortmund have only won one of their six meetings with the French side in all competitions (D3 L2).
Dortmund overcame PSG 2-1 in the first leg of the 2019-20 Champions League round of 16 before being eliminated 3-2 on aggregate, and Luis Enrique expects another difficult task on Wednesday.
"That shows that the press doesn't know much about football," he joked ahead of the first meeting at Signal Iduna Park.
"I have said that for a long time. What is great about being here is enjoying a really special game at a unique stadium in Europe and having the chance to make our fans really happy by reaching the final."
A tough challenge awaits for PSG, however, considering Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 10 Champions League home games (W6 D4), their longest-ever such run in the competition.
CFU to assume responsibility for Caribbean Club Shield from Concacaf
The Caribbean Football Union (CFU) will now assume responsibility for the organization and management of the Caribbean Club Shield, as Concacaf has opted to shift the respected Caribbean club competition from its portfolio.
As such, CFU will take the reins of the tournament, which will be rebranded as the CFU Club Shield for the 2024 edition and onwards, and will qualify two clubs into the Concacaf Caribbean Cup. While CFU will organize and manage the competition, Concacaf will provide support for its delivery, as per the terms of what is viewed as a significant transition agreement.
According to Concacaf President, Victor Montagliani, this decision reflects a collaborative effort between Concacaf and the CFU to further bolster the growth of clubs and leagues, and football as a whole, across the Caribbean region.
“The development of regional club football is a major priority for Concacaf and alongside our Caribbean member associations, we are dedicated to fully supporting the growth of clubs and leagues across a region known for its passion for the sport. This collaboration with the CFU is a testament to the leadership of the CFU President and highlights the ambition we share to deliver opportunities that will take the game in the Caribbean to the next level. We look forward with great anticipation to supporting the delivery of the inaugural CFU Club Shield later this year," Montagliani shared.
His CFU counterpart Randolph Harris expressed his delight to take the reins.
“The CFU is extremely pleased to be taking over the management and organization of the Club Shield, and to rebrand it as an official CFU competition. We welcome the cooperation from Concacaf in ushering in this new era of the CFU delivering an important club competition and we look forward to continuing to work closely with the Confederation to grow club and league football in the region. We are excited to deliver a competition that is as robust as any on the field of play and to delivering administration that meets and exceeds the mark,” said Harris.
Established in 2018, the Caribbean Club Shield has a primary objective of advancing professional football throughout the Caribbean. Participation is open to semi-professional and amateur teams holding current championship titles in their respective domestic leagues.
The tournament format involves up to 16 clubs, grouped into four sets of four. Winners of each group progress to the semifinals, with the ultimate finalists earning coveted berths in the Concacaf Caribbean Cup, subsequently qualifying for the Concacaf Champions Cup.
In 2023, Suriname’s SV Robinhood emerged victorious in both the Caribbean Club Shield and the Caribbean Cup. The team has solidified their position as the most successful team in the history of the Caribbean Club Shield, boasting two championship titles.
This year's edition is set to unfold from July 25 to August 4, 2024. The venue for this year's competition will be announced in short order.
Courtois ruled out of Euro 2024 despite Real Madrid return
Belgium goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has been ruled out of Euro 2024 by Domenico Tedesco, despite making a return to the Real Madrid squad.
The 31-year-old has missed the entire season, and after a setback in March, needed another knee operation.
Carlo Ancelotti said he hoped to have the goalkeeper back for their LaLiga match against Cadiz at the weekend, but has been able to name him on the bench for their Champions League semi-final against Bayern Munich on Tuesday.
Despite Courtois making a return to action before the squads have to be named, Tedesco was clear that he would not be chosen.
Speaking to German media on Tuesday, he said: “On this topic, everything has already been said. I don't want a tit-for-tat situation.
"We are focusing on players who are in good shape."
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
