During Fred's early months in the Premier League, it would be fair to say many Manchester City fans will have felt their team had dodged a bullet.

Prior to his move to the red side of Manchester, speculation was rife that Pep Guardiola had identified Fred – at Shakhtar Donetsk back then – as a long-term replacement for Fernandinho in midfield.

Fred had made a reputation for himself as an effective box-to-box midfielder who could have an impact on the ball as well as off it.

But it was difficult to see what possessed Manchester United to pip City to his reported £55million signing during the 2018-19 season, as he struggled with the tempo of the game and didn't appear to offer anything particularly outstanding to any part of the United unit.

However, as the past year or so – especially this season – highlights, Fred has become one of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's most-trusted individuals.

As United welcome City to Old Trafford in Wednesday's EFL Cup semi-final, Fred has another chance to show why that is the case.

MR DEPENDABLE?

Fred may have only started 10 of United's 16 Premier League games this term, but a telling pattern emerges when you look at which matches they were.

Among those games, he was in Solskjaer's line-up for outings against Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton, Southampton, City, Leeds United, Leicester City and Aston Villa.

All of those are, of course, either 'big six' rivals or teams pushing to be in the upper echelons of the Premier League this term. He was brought on at half-time in the 6-1 demolition by Tottenham, and while he hardly held Spurs at bay, they were at the very least less rampant in the second half.

It cannot be a coincidence that these are the type of matches Fred has been used in most often, with Solskjaer clearly valuing the midfielder's off-the-ball qualities as United regularly look to absorb pressure and spring counter-attacks.

That will likely be the tactic again as United host EFL Cup holders City in Wednesday's semi-final, a one-legged repeat of last season's two-match tie in the same round.

A year on from the 2019-20 first leg, Solskjaer will be hoping for a rather different outcome, as City – opting to go with a false nine – overran United's midfield and battered them at Old Trafford that day, deservedly winning 3-1.

There will likely be just four players from the United starting XI of the game a year ago who line up on Wednesday, with Fred one of them. The upheaval in the squad has been significant, but it's telling that the Brazilian is one of those still playing a role, and an important one at that.

He may have let himself down again with a red card against Paris Saint-Germain, but it seems Solskjaer accepted responsibility over that incident.

FRED THE FACILITATOR

It seems highly unlikely Fred will ever be in the running for any of the Premier League's end-of-season individual awards – he doesn't score or create enough, and you cannot say his influence is anything like that of N'Golo Kante in the title-winning Leicester City side.

But, one player who surely will be a candidate for individual gongs is Bruno Fernandes, and players like him need colleagues like Fred in order to thrive.

The Brazil international is well-rounded and has the technical ability to lend support in offensive situations, such as his neat interchanges with Paul Pogba against Aston Villa last time out.

But Fred is undoubtedly at his most effective when his side are not in possession, with his 49 tackles more than any other United or City midfielder in all competitions this term.

It's a similar story with his interceptions count. Fred has made 30 in 2020-21, five more than Rodrigo, who ranks second among the United and City engine room players. That is despite Fred despite playing over 400 minutes less than City's Spain international. Of course, City generally have more of the ball than United, but it still highlights Fred's awareness.

Critics might point out his 12 key passes is a rather meagre total, but with Bruno Fernandes (69) creating chances with such frequency, one could argue it doesn't matter – after all, Fred isn't being put in the team to be a creator.

Curiously, in the league since January 1 last year, United actually have a worse win percentage (50) with Fred in the starting XI than they do without him (71.4), though this is clearly skewed by the fact he is often reserved for games against better opposition.

But what is notable from this time period is United concede fewer shots - 10.3 per game - on average when Fred starts. That goes up to 12.1 shots per 90 minutes when he's not in the first XI – while the team's own shots count increases from 12.4 to 15 each game with the Internacional youth product in the side.

Opta's advanced passing data also reflects favourably on Fred, particularly with respect to starting three open-play sequences that ended in a goal, which is the joint second highest in the Premier League this term.

He has also initiated four open-play passing sequences that led to a shot, which only Luke Shaw, Harry Maguire and Fernandes can better in the Red Devils' squad.

UNNOTICED, UNDER-APPRECIATED, BUT NOT USELESS

Fred is perhaps the sort of player many would consider dispensable, and maybe he is in certain matches. Rarely does he stand out as an individual, certainly not to the extent of say Fernandes and Marcus Rashford, and much of his work can go unnoticed.

But many of us inadvertently analyse players in isolation and by their individual numbers, rather than how they fit into the collective. Sure, Fred doesn't create many chances, but what he offers United off the ball is seemingly vital for Solskjaer.

Fred may not be the player a lot of United fans expected two and a half years ago, but he has certainly proven himself to be no dud.

Manchester City will seek to reassert themselves against Manchester United in Wednesday's EFL Cup semi-final, with their status as the leading team in the rivalry for much of the past decade a source of pride to Pep Guardiola.

City have not finished below their neighbours in the Premier League since United's most recent Premier League title success in 2012-13, winning three subsequent top-flight crowns themselves.

Two of those came under Guardiola, United finishing a distant second in 2017-18 as City racked up a record-breaking 100-point haul.

The sides also met at the same stage of the EFL Cup last season, as City prevailed en route to a third consecutive Wembley success in the competition, although there have been signs that the local argument is starting to turn of late.

“United has always been a big club," Guardiola said. "When I faced them with Barcelona, Bayern Munich and here, it was always important.

"It is a rivalry in the city and for many decades United was above Manchester City. For us, we are incredibly proud and it is an honour for the last decade to be there with them and sometimes win, most of the times, and sometimes lose."

A 3-1 first-leg triumph in last season's semi-final is City's only victory in the most recent five Manchester derbies.

United restored pride and caused nerves to jangle with a 1-0 win at the Etihad Stadium as Nemanja Matic scored and was sent off in the return game, while also completing a Premier League double in 2019-20 either side of those matches.

Both teams have hit more impressive form since December's turgid 0-0 draw at Old Trafford in their most recent encounter, although it is United who sit level on points with champions Liverpool at the summit and have a chance to go top if they avoid defeat in their game in hand against Burnley next week.

"They have always been contenders," Guardiola said. "Every year, when we start the season, United is a contender.

"If it didn’t happen in the last few seasons, it is a question for them. It is no different facing United or other contenders."

City turned in a majestic performance as they dispatched Chelsea 3-1 at the weekend - a performance that was all the more impressive after a coronavirus outbreak robbed them of six first-team players.

Kyle Walker and Gabriel Jesus have now completed 10 days of self-isolation after having positive tests confirmed on Christmas Day, but Ederson, Ferran Torres, Eric Garcia and Tommy Doyle will remain unavailable at Old Trafford for a one-off encounter - the EFL having ditched its usual two-legged format to ease fixture congestion.

“We don’t have many players. To play one or two games is okay but if this sustains for a long time and I can only use 14 or 15 players it will be more difficult," Guardiola explained.

"Like everyone in the world, we adapt, you have to adjust our lives and our professions as much as possible and we don’t have an alternative.

"The most important thing is that the guys who have COVID can recover well and the guys handle it well and try to avoid it as much as possible."

City will be in action for the first time since the death of club great Colin Bell, who passed away after a short illness, aged 74.

Players past and present lined up to pay tribute to Bell on Tuesday, with former City captain Vincent Kompany tweeting: "So very sad to hear [of] Colin Bell's passing. Heard all about The King!

"A true Manchester City legend. This man was on another level, if only I could have seen him play. Incredibly kind and humble when I met him."

Kevin De Bruyne believes Manchester City are starting to approach their peak, with the Belgium star stating Pep Guardiola's team were not ready for the start of the 2020-21 campaign.

City's elongated 2019-20 season finished in August, as they slumped to a 3-1 defeat against Lyon in the Champions League quarter-finals.

Guardiola's side were given an extra week off prior to starting their Premier League season in September, but their tally of 12 points from their opening eight games was their worst start to a top-flight campaign since 2008-09.

However, City are unbeaten in seven top-flight outings since a 2-0 defeat to Tottenham, conceding just twice during that run.

De Bruyne scored and set up another in a dominant 3-1 win over Chelsea on Sunday, creating three chances and attempting a game-high five shots.

City have closed to within four points of leaders Liverpool and have two games in hand on the reigning champions, who lost 1-0 at Southampton on Monday.

First they face rivals Manchester United on Wednesday in the EFL Cup semi-finals - chasing a fourth consecutive triumph in the competition - and De Bruyne has put their early struggles down to a lack of proper preparation owing to a condensed pre-season. 

"I think at the beginning of the season we had many difficulties, many injuries, no pre-season," De Bruyne said. 

"Mentally and physically, we weren't ready for the new season.

"I think over the last month we recovered a few players, we raised our level, we have won a few matches and we have gone up a few places in the table.

"We still have another eight games in January in all competitions, it's going to be tough, but I think we are ready for the battle and that is what matters."

HOW CITY'S START COMPARED TO 2019-20

After eight games this season, City had scored just 10 goals, conceding 11 at the other end. In contrast, after the same number of fixtures last term, they had scored 27 times and allowed in just nine.

City had a pass completion rate of 87.74 per cent, while 47.57 per cent of their tackles were successful – again, both of these figures were lower than their corresponding numbers for 2019-20 (89.22 per cent and 58.73 per cent respectively).

With eight games played last season, City had created a total of 132 opportunities, with 32 of these counted as "big chances" by Opta.

They were 39 down in terms of chances created by the same stage this term, while they had created 20 fewer big opportunities and only managed 125 attempts compared to 167 last season.

Guardiola's men recorded three wins, three draws and two defeats from their opening eight encounters of 2020-21, having won five, drawn one and lost two up to and including October 6, 2019.