From Gerd Muller to Marco van Basten, Alan Shearer to Fernando Torres, some of the greatest strikers to have played the game have had the honour of winning the Golden Boot at a European Championship.

When Europe's finest descend upon Germany for the 17th edition of UEFA's flagship international tournament, a mix of established greats and young prospects will vie to be the continent's best goalscorer.

Can Cristiano Ronaldo mark what will surely be his final major tournament by becoming the first two-time recipient of the Golden Boot, or might Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappe upstage the Portugal legend? 

As the build-up to Euro 2024 continues, we delve into the Opta data to assess the chances of the leading contenders, pick out a couple of potential dark horses and ask what lessons we can take from previous Golden Boot winners.

THE FAVOURITES

Kylian Mbappe

Where else to start but with Mbappe? 

The France captain is again among the favourites to top the goalscoring charts, having netted eight times to win the Golden Boot as Les Bleus came up just short at the 2022 World Cup.

While Mbappe has 12 goals in 14 World Cup matches and looks destined to obliterate Miroslav Klose's record of 16, he failed to score at his only previous Euros, even missing the decisive kick as France went out to Switzerland on penalties three years ago. 

At Euro 2020, only Alvaro Morata (six), Gerard Moreno and Kane (five each) missed more big chances (as defined by Opta) than Mbappe (four). His 14 total shots amounted to 1.7 expected goals (xG), with only Moreno (-2.25) and Dani Olmo (-1.86) underperforming their xG figures by a greater margin. 

However, few would predict a repeat following a season in which Mbappe scored 44 times in 47 games, a tally only matched by Kane among players from Europe's top five leagues. 

Mbappe also scored nine times in eight Euro 2024 qualifiers, though the depth of attacking talent available to Didier Deschamps – and the likelihood of Mbappe playing from the left flank – could mean they are slightly less reliant on one star than other nations. 

France had the largest spread of goalscorers of any side during qualifying, with 14 different players scoring at least once for them, excluding own goals. 

A testing Group D draw could also work against him; Austria and the Netherlands both conceded just seven goals in eight qualifiers, while Poland shipped 10 in their group games. However, should France go all the way, he will likely provide some big moments.

Harry Kane

As the only player in Europe's top five leagues to match Mbappe in 2023-24, many feel Kane was let down by those around him as Bayern Munich relinquished their Bundesliga crown.

Having suffered final heartache at Euro 2020, Kane will be desperate to end his major trophy hoodoo in his new homeland.

Kane is England's record goalscorer overall (63 goals) and their most prolific player at major tournaments (12 goals at World Cup/Euros). Across the last three tournaments (2018 World Cup, Euro 2020 and 2022 World Cup), Mbappe is the only player to match Kane's return. 

He scored or assisted on all seven of his starts in qualifying (eight goals, two assists) and despite failing to capture silverware in his first season in Germany, he sent records tumbling in a brilliant individual campaign.

Thirty-six goals in 32 games made Kane's debut campaign the most prolific in Bundesliga history, with only Robert Lewandowski (41 in 2020-21) and Muller (40 in 1971-72, 38 in 1969-70) ever scoring more in a single season. 

A kind group-stage draw should allow Kane the chance to build some early momentum. Serbia are making their first Euros appearance as an independent nation, while Slovenia are embarking on their first campaign since 2000.

Even Denmark – against whom Kane scored the winner in the Euro 2020 semi-finals – could give up plenty of opportunities.

Their previous 33 matches at the Euros have produced an average of 2.79 goals per game (42 for, 50 against), the highest ratio among the 12 teams to have played at least 20 games.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Portugal's Euro 2020 campaign ended in last-16 heartache against Belgium, but in just four games, Ronaldo did enough to claim the Golden Boot with five goals and one assist, edging out Patrik Schick.

In many ways, this is Ronaldo's competition. He holds the tournament records for most games (25), most goals (14), joint-most assists on record (six – starting in 1972) and most editions with at least one goal (five).

Since 1972, Ronaldo has recorded twice as many goal involvements as any other player at the Euros (20 – 14 goals, six assists), with Michel Platini a distant second (10, nine goals, one assist).

However, age catches up with everyone, and many have questioned the 39-year-old's value to the Selecao since he swapped Manchester United for Al-Nassr after the 2022 World Cup.

Ronaldo may not be playing at the peak of the European game any more, but he set a new single-season record with 35 Saudi Pro League goals in 2023-24, overperforming his xG total of 30.68 even while missing more big chances than any other player in the league (33).

Questions persist regarding Ronaldo's ability to fit into a coherent off-the-ball structure, but if chances fall his way, he is likely to take them. 

He should not suffer from a lack of service. Of the top 10 players in Europe's top five leagues for open-play chances created in 2023-24 (all competitions), three were Portuguese – Bruno Fernandes (first, 111), Bernardo Silva (eighth, 84) and Rafael Leao (joint-10th, 82).

Romelu Lukaku

Lukaku became Belgium's all-time leading goalscorer all the way back in 2018 and now has 85 goals in 115 senior international appearances. 

Eleven of those strikes have come at major tournaments (World Cup/Euros), though he struggled enormously in Qatar two years ago and has only netted twice in knockout games for his country.

However, he should not be discounted from the Golden Boot race at this year's tournament.

Lukaku scored an astonishing 14 goals in eight Euro 2024 qualifiers, setting a new record for a single qualification campaign. He scored every 39 minutes on average and converted almost half of his shots (29), accounting for 63.6 per cent of total goals scored by Domenico Tedesco's men (22).

With Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine awaiting Belgium in Group E and a third-place finisher next up if they top their pool, Lukaku should be confident of a strong start.

Like Ronaldo, he will also be serviced by some of the continent's best creators.

Since the start of the 2014 World Cup, Kevin De Bruyne's nine assists at major tournaments (five at the Euros, four at World Cups) are the most of any European player, and he led all Premier League players for expected assists (0.42 xA) and chances created (3.37) per 90 minutes in 2023-24.

Ranking second for xA per 90 (0.33) and third for chances created (2.49)? That would be De Bruyne's City and Belgium team-mate Jeremy Doku. Lukaku will not want for opportunities.

Alvaro Morata

Euro 2020 will live long in the memory of Atletico Madrid striker Morata, but perhaps not for the right reasons.

He netted three times as Spain made the last four, but he was also criticised after missing more big chances (six) than any other player at the tournament. To make matters worse, it was his unsuccessful penalty which allowed Italy to beat La Roja in a semi-final shoot-out.

However, Morata does have a decent pedigree at the Euros, ranking joint-fifth in the competition's all-time goalscoring charts, his six strikes equalling the likes of Patrick Kluivert, Wayne Rooney, Thierry Henry and Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Meanwhile, Joselu – Morata's understudy for this tournament – was the only Spain player to match his four goals in qualifying.

Luis de la Fuente's approach does not differ greatly from that of Luis Enrique, so Spain will be patient in their bid to create chances.

La Roja's last 50 goals at the Euros have all been scored from inside the box, their last long-range strike coming via Raul against Slovenia in 2000.

Morata scored 15 goals in 27 LaLiga matches in 2023-24, making it his joint-most prolific campaign in one of Europe's top five leagues (he also netted 15 times for Real Madrid in 2016-17). 

THE OUTSIDERS

Florian Wirtz

The likes of Kai Havertz and Niclas Fullkrug are battling it out to lead the line for Germany, but perhaps their main goal threat will come from deep if Julian Nagelsmann implements a fluid system.

Bayer Leverkusen star Wirtz was crowned Bundesliga Player of the Year after scoring 11 goals and providing 11 assists throughout their unbeaten campaign, also netting four times on their run to the Europa League final.

Gianluca Scamacca

Leverkusen's European campaign ended in heartbreaking fashion against Atalanta in Dublin. While Ademola Lookman did the damage in the final, Scamacca also shone for La Dea and has a great chance of starting at the Euros, given Italy's lack of true striking options.

Scamacca only has one goal in 16 senior appearances for Italy, but if Luciano Spalletti picks his team on form, the former West Ham striker should make it in. He scored 19 goals in all competitions in 2023-24, outperforming his xG total of 11.2 by a huge differential of 7.8.  

Rasmus Hojlund

Might a former Atalanta forward also find himself in contention? Hojlund endured an up-and-down debut season with Manchester United, but he ended it on a high by scoring in his last two Premier League games before helping them triumph in the FA Cup final.

Hojlund top-scored for Denmark with seven goals in qualifying, also leading his team-mates for shots (23), shots on target (13) and xG (5.2). If Denmark are to push England close in Group C, they will need their number nine in top form.

What does history tell us? 

We are highly unlikely to see anyone match Platini's incredible nine-goal haul from Euro 1984, but looking at recent Golden Boot winners does allow us to draw a few conclusions about what is needed to come out on top. 

Since the Euros expanded to 16 teams for 1996, the fewest goals needed to win the Golden Boot was three, with Torres taking the honours in 2012, after his team-mate David Villa did so with four in 2008.

Antoine Griezmann's six goals in 2016 is the closest any player has ever come to Platini's haul, while four of the last seven editions have seen the leading scorer finish on five goals. 

Griezmann and Platini, alongside Shearer in 1996, are also the only standalone winners to claim the award while representing the host nation.

It is also interesting to note that team success does not necessarily translate to individual honours. 

Spain duo Villa and Torres are the only players to claim the Golden Boot as tournament winners since 1992 (when Denmark's Henrik Larsen shared it with three other players).

A deep run of sorts is usually required, though. Ronaldo won the Euro 2020 Golden Boot despite Portugal exiting in the last 16, but the previous four standalone winners all played for teams who reached the semi-finals as a minimum.

As you might have guessed, having the best goalscorer in the competition helps, but it is no guarantee of glory.

Few England fans will be consoled by a Kane Golden Boot if the Three Lions fall short.   

UEFA is preparing for a landmark moment at Euro 2024 as Europe's governing body revealed plans to communicate VAR decisions on stadium screens in Germany.

The organisation had already announced last month that refereeing calls would be explained in detail to international captains, who should be the only players to speak to the officials.

Any team-mate ignoring their captain's role and approaching the referee showing any sign of disrespect or dissent will receive a yellow card.

Yet UEFA confirmed another refereeing initiative at the upcoming tournament as officials will explain decisions to the crowd via stadium screens across June and July.

"This is something new. I think it's very, very, very interesting," UEFA's managing director for refereeing Roberto Rosetti said on Wednesday.

"So we want to give, after the opinion of VAR, a technical explanation for the public.

"In live, simultaneously, the UEFA expert will prepare the explanation, a technical explanation about what happened in the specific situation.

"For example, on-field review, the referee awards a penalty for handball...

"Technical explanation: Germany number nine touched the ball with his left arm in an unnatural position above the shoulder and making his body bigger."

Rosetti has already been leading the way in reaching out to teams and players to inform them of the new protocols at the European Championship.

That includes reinforcing the message that dangerous tackles will be greeted with serious disciplinary punishment.

"One of the most important priorities in refereeing guidelines is to protect the players," Rosetti added.

"To protect the image of the game, but in particular to protect the safety of the main actors of the games.

"We showed them a couple of clips that we are asking to the referees to be very strong in these kinds of situations.

"So for such situations, we asked the referees to be zero tolerant because this is something that we cannot accept."

Germany open the Euro 2024 tournament in their curtain-raiser against Scotland in Munich on Friday.

Euro 2024 kicks off on Friday as Germany take on Scotland in Munich, and a flying start is on the agenda for Julian Nagelsmann's team.

Scotland, in their fourth appearance at the European Championships, would probably have been hoping for an easier start than going up against the hosts in the tournament's opening match.

Steve Clarke's team qualified in second place, behind Spain and ahead of Erling Haaland's Norway, from their group.

Germany, meanwhile, have picked up form under Nagelsmann since he was appointed as Hansi Flick's successor, and the former Bayern Munich coach has plenty of talent at his disposal, even if the Euro 2024 hosts are not considered to be among the biggest favourites.

Mats Hummels, Serge Gnabry and Leon Goretzka are three big-name absentees from Germany's squad, while Bayern youngster Aleksandar Pavlovic had to withdraw from the squad on Wednesday due to injury.

But in Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Leroy Sane, Kai Havertz and Borussia Dortmund's Niclas Fullkrug, Germany have an exciting attack, while Toni Kroos will anchor the midfield before he heads off into retirement.

This is Nagelsmann's first major tournament as head coach. Jupp Derwall was the last Germany boss to win a major tournament with them at the first attempt (Euro 1980).

Here, we use Opta data to preview the Euro 2024 opener.

 

What's expected?

It's no surprise to see that Germany are the overwhelming favourites to win this match, with Opta's supercomputer ranking their chances of victory at 58 per cent. 

Germany and Scotland are facing each other for the third time at a major tournament. Germany won the two previous encounters, in the group stages of the 1986 World Cup (2-1) and Euro 1992 (2-0). 

Indeed, Scotland have won only one of their last 13 matches against Germany (D4 L8); it was in April 1999, with Don Hutchison scoring the only goal in a Bremen friendly (0-1).

After losing to Turkiye and Austria, Germany have gone unbeaten in their last four matches. That being said, they were not particularly impressive in their warm-up matches. 

Following a 0-0 draw with Ukraine, Germany beat Greece 2-1 last time out, though they mustered a disappointing 0.88 expected goals (xG), in contrast to their opponents' 2.14.

The scoreline is the statistic that matters at tournaments, with Havertz grabbing an equaliser midway through the second half before Pascal Gross secured a late victory, but it should give Scotland some hope, even though they are handed just a 21 per cent win likelihood, with the draw threat also at 21 per cent.

Scotland won their first five Euro 2024 qualifiers but then failed to win any of their final three (D2 L1), conceding seven goals in those games after only shipping one goal in their first five games.

They beat Gibraltar 2-0 and then drew 2-2 with Finland in their warm-up friendlies, though they head into Euro 2024 without some key players, with full-backs Aaron Hickey and Nathan Patterson, and striker Lyndon Dykes, out due to injury.

Germany have won only one of their last five matches played in Munich (D3 L1), a 4-2 victory against Portugal at Euro 2020, so while the smart money is on the hosts, Scotland should not go into this one without confidence, with captain Andrew Robertson and midfield duo John McGinn and Scott McTominay offering a threat, too.

Home hopes

This is the fourth time that Germany are sole hosts of a major international tournament, reaching the final four in each of the previous three editions: champions at the 1974 World Cup, semi-finalists at Euro 1988 and third place at the 2006 World Cup.

Germany are taking part in their 14th Euros, more than any other team. They have won the trophy three times, the joint-most alongside Spain.

Nagelsmann has been happy to lean on inexperience for his squad selection, and in Wirtz and Musiala, he has two of the most exciting youngsters in world football at his disposal.

Wirtz scored 11 goals and added 11 assists during Bayer Leverkusen's unbeaten Bundesliga title-winning campaign to claim Player of the Season honours in Germany's top tier.

Musiala, meanwhile, scored 10 goals from an xG of 7.9 in the league.

Behind them, the returning Kroos brings plenty of experience, alongside Ilkay Gundogan, who created the second-most chances of any player in Europe's top five leagues in all competitions in 2023-24, with 132.

Havertz is likely to lead the line with support from Fullkrug, but Thomas Muller is another weapon in Germany's arsenal. He has scored 10 goals in 19 appearances at the World Cup (36 shots), but he has never scored in 15 appearances at the European Championships (31 shots).

Will it finally be Muller time? 

 

At the other end of the pitch, though, Germany do have some issues. On paper, Jonathan Tah, Nico Schlotterbeck and Antonio Rudiger are a fine trio to choose from in the centre of defence, while Joshua Kimmich can play at right-back, but Nagelsmann needs to make sure the team's defending is better than it was against Greece. Perhaps Hummels' experience would have been useful?

Germany have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 12 games at major international tournaments. The last time they kept a clean sheet was against Slovakia in the round of 16 at Euro 2016.

Fourth time lucky?

This is Clarke's second major international tournament as a manager, after Euro 2020. He is the first Scotland boss to lead the team into two consecutive Euros.

Scotland have never reached the knockouts of the Euros in any of their three previous appearances at the tournament.

They have won just two of their nine Euro matches, with those victories coming over CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) in 1992 and Switzerland in 1996. Scotland have failed to score in six of their nine games at the European Championships.

While Germany are one of the toughest possible opponents to face first up, if Scotland could get something from this match, then they would be in a great position ahead of meetings with Hungary and Switzerland.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Germany – Toni Kroos

Kroos' presence in midfield will be a major boost to a team that averaged 59.3 per cent possession at Euro 2020 – second only to Spain (66.8 per cent).

The 34-year-old came out of international retirement to feature for Germany in their home tournament, though of course, it will now mark the final competitive event of his career.

Kroos – who won his sixth Champions League with Real Madrid this month – played more line-breaking passes (214) and passes leading to final-third entries (69) than any other player in UEFA's flagship club competition in 2023-24.

Scotland – Scott McTominay

A strong defence helped get them through qualifying, with a sprinkling of quality from McTominay, who was the top scorer in qualifying Group A with seven goals – one more than Manchester City superstar Haaland managed for Norway.

 

McTominay's goal tally is the joint most by a Scottish player in a Euros/World Cup qualifying campaign, along with Steven Fletcher (Euro 2016) and McGinn (Euro 2020).

And what is even more impressive, is that McTominay's goals came from just 1.77 xG, an overperformance of 5.23.

Germany will be without Bayern Munich's Aleksandar Pavlovic for Euro 2024 after the 20-year-old came down with tonsillitis three days before their Group A opener against Scotland. 

Pavlovic was set to feature in his first international tournament for his country despite only earning his first cap in a recent friendly against Ukraine.

However, he has since been ruled out after being absent from training in Herzogenaurach on Monday and Tuesday. 

Die Mannschaft coach Julian Naglesmann was quick to name his replacement, welcoming Borussia Dortmund captain Emre Can to his ranks. 

Can helped guide his side to the Champions League final where they lost to Real Madrid at Wembley, with Nagelsmann identifying the former Liverpool midfielder, who has 43 caps for Germany, as an ideal replacement for Pavlovic. 

"We wanted another Six in the squad and we decided to nominate Emre Can," Nagelsmann said.

"He was instantly excited and said he was ready to join the team. We wanted a player in the squad who has played a lot of matches and who knows how to handle pressure. He fits the profile and we can now use him."

Pavlovic's absence in the German squad will be felt having enjoyed a breakthrough campaign at the Allianz Arena under the guidance of Thomas Tuchel. 

The 20-year-old made 19 appearances in the Bundesliga this season, winning 15 of those, with the team scoring 54 goals in the process. 

Pavlovic would miss 15 games in the league, and his presence in midfield was missed as Bayern would win just eight times in the German's absence, as well as conceding 14 more goals.

Ilkay Gundogan says it will be "a huge honour and privilege" to lead host nation Germany in what will be a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" at Euro 2024. 

The three-time champions will host their first major international tournament since the 2006 World Cup, where they finished third after losing to eventual champions Italy in the semi-finals. 

Julian Nagelsmann's side are seeking an upturn in fortunes, having suffered back-to-back World Cup group-stage exits, while they were beaten by England in the round of 16 at Euro 2020.

Germany, whose final two warm-up games brought a goalless draw with Ukraine and a narrow 2-1 win over Greece, have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 12 games at major tournaments, last keeping a clean sheet against Slovakia in the round of 16 at Euro 2016.

DFB will launch the tournament at Munich Football Arena on Friday against Scotland, a team they have beaten in both previous major tournament encounters at the 1986 World Cup and 1992 European Championship.

And former Manchester City captain Gundogan, who skippered the Citizens to an historic treble in 2022-23, hopes he can use his leadership skills to inspire his nation to a strong showing on home soil.

"It's a huge honour, a huge privilege to be captain," the Barcelona midfielder said. "I have experienced an awful lot in my career, lots of great times but also lots of difficult times. I kind of know what it takes to be successful.

"All I can do is lead from the front, both on and off the pitch. I think the people of Germany – not just the fans – deserve some success.

"We know it'll be a tough game against Scotland. They have a lot of quality, lots of stars from the Premier League, so it's going to be a challenge, but we are confident.

"We're very well set up, full of quality and there's lots of potential in the squad; we just have to deliver now. We haven't done ourselves justice in recent tournaments.

"We hope this time that we benefit somewhat from the euphoria in our home country and the support of the fans, and that this carries us along. But we know we first have to earn the trust of our fans on the pitch. If we do, I think we will go a long way.

"Playing a [tournament] in your own country is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, so obviously it feels really special."

Gundogan also praised the impact of Nagelsmann, who is preparing for his first major international tournament as head coach since replacing Hansi Flick last September.

The 36-year-old is aiming to become the first Germany boss to win a competition at his first attempt since Jupp Derwall at the 1980 European Championship.

"He has brought structure to the team," Gundogan observed. "He has clear ideas about what he wants, but still, there is a calmness about how the coaching team deals with the squad, and there's a sense that they have confidence in the players, which reflects well on us.

"We knew that not everything would go perfectly, we knew we would make mistakes, but we have always felt that the coach was right behind the team. We have the right set-up and are capable of producing our best, to pay back the confidence he has in us."

Euro 2024 is almost upon us, with Europe's finest preparing to battle it out to be crowned continental champions in Germany.

It all gets under way on Friday as Julian Nagelsmann's hosts face Scotland at the Allianz Arena. 

It seems remarkable to think Die Nationalelf – the most successful national team in Europe – have gone eight years without a knockout win at a major tournament, and they will be desperately hoping home advantage inspires a better run this time around.

England, meanwhile, will be looking to bring football home and end 58 years of hurt in the country their captain Harry Kane thrived in last season.

The Three Lions' 2022 World Cup hopes were ended by France, who are again among the favourites. There is plenty more intrigue elsewhere, from defending champions Italy being drawn in a 'group of death' with Spain and Croatia to Cristiano Ronaldo leading Portugal into a sixth edition of the Euros.

And who could forget Georgia's first tournament as an independent nation, or Scotland's attempts to upset the odds in Group A?

As Euros fever grips the continent, we run through the main storylines and contenders, pick out some underdogs and breakout stars to watch and take a look at the Opta supercomputer's predictions.

THE HOSTS

This will be the first edition of the Euros to take place solely in a unified Germany, though the Allianz Arena hosted games at Euro 2020 and West Germany staged the 1988 tournament – won by the Netherlands as Marco van Basten scored one of the most iconic goals in history against the USSR in the final.

This will be Germany's fourth major tournament as sole hosts overall, and they have always gone far on home soil, winning the 1974 World Cup and going out in the semi-finals at Euro 1988 and the 2006 World Cup.

Hopes were not high for them in late 2023 as a dismal run of friendly results saw Hansi Flick become the first Germany coach to be sacked. However, Nagelsmann has restored optimism and has a supremely talented group of players to work with.

Florian Wirtz's emergence as one of Europe's best attacking midfielders offers cause for excitement – the 21-year-old scored 11 goals and added 11 assists during Bayer Leverkusen's unbeaten Bundesliga title-winning campaign to claim Player of the Season honours.

Wirtz, Jamal Musiala and Ilkay Gundogan will likely support Kai Havertz in a fluid attacking quartet, while Toni Kroos' presence in midfield will be a major boost to a team that averaged 59.3 per cent possession at Euro 2020 – second only to Spain (66.8 per cent).

Kroos – who won his sixth Champions League with Real Madrid this month – played more line-breaking passes (214) and passes leading to final-third entries (69) than any other player in Europe's premier club competition in 2023-24.

The major question mark could pertain to Kroos' partner, with Germany having lacked a true midfield enforcer for some time.

They have conceded at least one goal in their last 12 major tournament games, last keeping a clean sheet against Slovakia in the last 16 at Euro 2016. Will that soft underbelly cost them again?

THE FAVOURITES

England

England's Euro 2024 preparations have been far from perfect, with defensive mainstay Harry Maguire missing out through injury and their final friendly ending in defeat against Iceland. However, Gareth Southgate's side enter the tournament as the Opta supercomputer's favourites.

It is not difficult to see why. In Kane, England have a striker whose tally of 44 goals in 2023-24 was only matched by Kylian Mbappe among players from Europe's top five leagues.

In Jude Bellingham, they have the outstanding player from Madrid's double-winning side, recording 36 goal involvements (23 goals, 13 assists) in his debut season in Spain. 

And in Phil Foden, Southgate can call upon the Premier League's Player of the Season, who produced talismanic performances against Manchester United, Aston Villa and West Ham to cap Manchester City's fourth straight title success. 

With Southgate thought likely to depart whatever the outcome of England's campaign, this tournament must be the culmination of their development into genuine contenders. Penalty shoot-outs excluded, England have only lost one of their last 18 Euros games (10 wins, seven draws) – against Iceland in 2016. 

With Marc Guehi now likely to partner John Stones following injury-disrupted campaigns for both players, the key may be Southgate's ability to protect his backline. 

Across the 2018 and 2022 World Cups and Euro 2020, England conceded just 0.59 goals per game and allowed opponents a paltry 0.72 expected goals (xG) per match – a figure only bettered by France (0.67) among the leading European teams to make each tournament. Reproducing that kind of solidity will be crucial. 

France

Didier Deschamps is eyeing history in Germany, where he could become the first person to win the World Cup and the Euros as both a player and a manager. 

Having reached the final at three of their last four major tournaments, Les Bleus are right up there among the favourites again.

The likes of Hugo Lloris, Raphael Varane, Paul Pogba and Karim Benzema may be gone, but France still boast an incredible depth of talent, with Mbappe leading from the front as captain.

Mbappe endured a terrible tournament at Euro 2020, failing to score from chances amounting to 1.7 xG in four games, before missing the vital penalty as France were beaten by Switzerland in a last-16 shoot-out. 

Coming into this tournament on the back of a 44-goal season with Paris Saint-Germain and with his long-term future decided, few expect a repeat from Madrid's newest Galactico. 

Among the more interesting selections from Deschamps is a recall for N'Golo Kante, who was missed at the 2022 World Cup but failed to prevent Al-Ittihad from finishing a lowly fifth in the Saudi Pro League in 2023-24. With Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni also included, opposing midfielders are in for a tough time. 

A difficult group-stage draw means France will be tested from the very off, though. If they can top a pool containing the Netherlands, Austria and Poland, they could be on course to meet England in a titanic semi-final. 

Spain

Spain are the only nation to win back-to-back editions of the Euros, bookending their golden era by triumphing in 2008 and 2012. Since then, La Roja have won just two knockout ties at five major tournaments, with a 2022 World Cup exit to Morocco their nadir.  

Luis de la Fuente is the man tasked with bringing back the good times, and victory in the 2022-23 edition of the Nations League represented a decent start.

However, La Roja have been drawn into what is surely the toughest group at the Euros, with Croatia and Italy their first two opponents before they face Albania.

Spain's attractive, possession-based brand of football won them plenty of plaudits at Euro 2020 and the Qatar World Cup, but it did not win them enough games, with Italy, Japan and Morocco all keeping them at arm's length at those tournaments.

As well as averaging the most passes per sequence during Euro 2024 qualifying (six), Spain averaged the most sequences of 10+ passes per game (28.5). Adding an end product is now the aim of the game.

Alvaro Morata must step up after missing a tournament-high six big chances at Euro 2020. He did score 15 goals in LaLiga last term, though, and exciting wide duo Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams should provide him with plenty of service.

Spain's key men in midfield will be Pedri and Rodri.

Man City star Rodri saw his 18-month unbeaten run ended by Manchester United in last month's FA Cup final, but he developed into more than a midfield enforcer in 2023-24, scoring nine goals and adding 14 assists. 

Pedri, meanwhile, netted twice in a dominant 5-1 win over Northern Ireland last week, and is back to form after an stop-start season with Barcelona. His Blaugrana team-mate Gavi will be absent through injury, however.

If La Roja are to add punch to their possession play, this pair may need to be the driving force. 

Portugal

Portugal are the fifth team to be given more than a nine per cent chance of glory by the Opta supercomputer, as Cristiano Ronaldo heads into his 11th – and potentially final – tournament. 

Injury limited Ronaldo to the role of cheerleader when Portugal won Euro 2016, but he has already written his name into the competition's record books and can underline his legacy further in Germany.

Ronaldo holds the records for most games (25), most goals (14), joint-most assists on record (six – since 1972) and most editions with at least one goal (five) at the Euros. 

His place was called into question at the Qatar World Cup, but Roberto Martinez has built around him since taking over last year, with the Selecao plundering 36 goals in 10 qualifiers and conceding just two.

With the likes of Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leao, Joao Felix, Diogo Jota and Pedro Neto all making their squad, Portugal have one of the most exciting attacking line-ups at the tournament. 

A kind group-stage draw – pitting them against Czechia, Turkiye and tournament debutants Georgia also plays into their hands – and the Selecao also know topping Group F would put them on the opposite side of the draw to England and France, should they also win their groups.

Lionel Messi's triumph at the last World Cup will only have heightened Ronaldo's desire for more international silverware. With a strong supporting cast behind him, he should not be written off.

THE UNDERDOGS

Scotland

Scotland fell flat on their first tournament appearance of the century at Euro 2020, but there are reasons to suggest the Tartan Army might have more to cheer this time around. 

Steve Clarke's side were promoted to the top tier of the Nations League in 2022-23, while a famous 2-0 win over Spain at Hampden Park – courtesy of a Scott McTominay double – set the tone for their successful qualification campaign.

Having lost Aaron Hickey, Nathan Patterson and Lewis Ferguson to injury, Clarke's men face a difficult first test against Germany. However, one win could be enough to qualify under the 24-team format, and they might just fancy their chances of upsetting Hungary or Switzerland. 

Austria

Looking to bloody the noses of France and the Netherlands in Group D are Austria, tipped by many to be something of a surprise package under Ralf Rangnick.

Austria finished just one point behind Belgium in qualifying, Rangnick needing little time to implement his high-pressing style. They allowed opponents just 8.3 passes per defensive action (PPDA) in qualifying – the fewest of any team.

Austria also attacked with the highest direct speed (2.03 metres per second), and if their Group D opponents do not match their intensity, they could spring a surprise.

Georgia

One of the stories of the tournament can be found in Group F, with Georgia featuring at a major tournament for the first time as an independent nation – they are the only Euros debutants in Germany.

They failed to qualify directly - their Nations League performance teeing up a penalty shoot-out victory over Greece in the play-offs. They were the only team to reach the tournament while posting a negative goal difference (-6) in their qualifying group.

When it comes to one-off games, though, they do have match-winners. Napoli's Khvicha Kvaratskhelia completed the joint-most dribbles of any player in qualifying (44), alongside Jeremy Doku, also scoring four goals and providing one assist.

Georgia also have international pedigree in the dugout, with Willy Sagnol their head coach. The former France right-back only lost one of his 12 games at major tournaments as a player (six wins, five draws).

THE BREAKOUT STARS

All eyes may be on Kane, Mbappe and Ronaldo, but major tournaments are often defined by breakout stars, those players who earn big-money moves or become household names within a matter of days.

Slovenia's Benjamin Sesko could be a candidate, having attracted interest from several of Europe's biggest clubs, though he has now signed a new deal with RB Leipzig. Bellingham (19) was the only player aged 21 or younger to better his 14 goals in Europe's big five leagues last term. 

The Netherlands, who are shorn of Frenkie de Jong, may need to spread the goals around in the absence of a top-class number nine, and Feyenoord's Lutsharel Geertruida – who has played at centre-back, right-back or in midfield – had 13 goal involvements in the Eredivisie last term (eight goals, five assists).

Defending champions Italy are being overlooked by many as Luciano Spalletti oversees a period of transition. Inter midfielder Davide Frattesi could emerge as a star for the Azzurri, having scored five goals in 15 caps – more than any team-mate since his debut in 2022.

This tournament has been touted as something of a last dance for Belgium's 'Golden Generation', and PSV winger Johan Bakayoko is the Red Devils' next big hope. Only seven players bettered his 164 opposition-half take-ons in Europe's top six leagues last term, with fellow Belgium wide-man Doku (171) among them.

The supercomputer's prediction

According to the Opta supercomputer, football may finally arrive home on July 14. 

England emerged triumphant in 19.9 per cent of Opta's 10,000 tournament simulations, making them favourites ahead of France (19.1 per cent).

There is then a significant gap to the third favourites, with Germany victorious on home soil in 12.4 per cent of projections, ahead of Spain (9.6 per cent) and Portugal (9.2 per cent). 

The Netherlands (5.1 per cent) and Italy (5.0 per cent) are next, with tough group-stage draws working against them. Belgium (4.7 per cent), Denmark (2.2 per cent) and Croatia (2 per cent) round out the top 10.

Lewis Morgan believes Scotland can surprise Germany ahead of their Euro 2024 opener against the hosts this Friday. 

Steve Clarke's side travel to Munich in search of their first victory over their opponents since 1999, having failed to beat Die Mannschaft in their previous four encounters.

The New York Red Bulls winger was a late arrival in Scotland's provisional squad after it was announced Ben Doak had to withdraw through injury, and made it into the travelling group of 26. 

Morgan ended his six-year absence from the international stage with a substitute appearance in a 2-2 draw against Finland at Hampden Park last week to earn his third cap for his country, 2,193 days since his last. 

The 27-year-old has scored nine goals in 16 MLS appearances so far this season in the Eastern Conference, and believes his side have every chance of starting their Group A campaign with a victory. 

"Absolutely, stranger things have happened in football," Morgan said about the possibility of Scotland upsetting the host nation.

"We've got a really, really talented squad here, a good group of players playing at the highest level in world football.

"There's no reason why we can't go there and get something, but we can only do that if we give the best version of ourselves and stick to the game plan."

Following Friday's fixture against Germany, the Scots will face Switzerland before concluding their group campaign in Stuttgart against Hungary, with the hopes of reaching the knockout stages of an international competition for the first time in their history. 

Lewis Morgan believes Scotland can surprise Germany ahead of their Euro 2024 opener against the hosts this Friday. 

Steve Clarke's side travel to Munich in search of their first victory over their opponents since 1999, having failed to beat Die Mannschaft in their previous four encounters.

The New York Red Bulls winger was a late arrival in Scotland's provisional squad after it was announced Ben Doak had to withdraw through injury, and made it into the travelling group of 26. 

Morgan ended his six-year absence from the international stage with a substitute appearance in a 2-2 draw against Finland at Hampden Park last week to earn his third cap for his country, 2,193 days since his last. 

The 27-year-old has scored nine goals in 16 MLS appearances so far this season in the Eastern Conference, and believes his side have every chance of starting their Group A campaign with a victory. 

"Absolutely, stranger things have happened in football," Morgan said about the possibility of Scotland upsetting the host nation.

"We've got a really, really talented squad here, a good group of players playing at the highest level in world football.

"There's no reason why we can't go there and get something, but we can only do that if we give the best version of ourselves and stick to the game plan."

Following Friday's fixture against Germany, the Scots will face Switzerland before concluding their group campaign in Stuttgart against Hungary, with the hopes of reaching the knockout stages of an international competition for the first time in their history. 

Steve Clarke hopes to take Scotland into the knockout stages of a major tournament for the first time at Euro 2024, with their target simply four points to progress.

Scotland have failed in their previous 11 attempts across the World Cup and European Championship to make it past the group stages.

Hosts Germany await in the Group A opener for Clarke's side on Friday before clashes with Switzerland and Hungary.

With the top two sides progressing, as well as four of the best third-placed finishers, Clarke made his ambitions clear for the upcoming UEFA tournament.

"The bottom line is we need four points to come out the group, that guarantees that you'll come out of the group almost forever," Clarke told BBC Sport.

"That always happens. Three points and a zero goal difference would probably get out of the group so that's what we have to look at – every game in isolation, make sure that we're competitive in every game and realistically you go into the last game with a chance to qualify.

"Hopefully, we've done it before that with the points tally from the first two games but if we get to the last game like we did in the last tournament, we had to go to Wembley, we had to get at least a point against England, we gave ourselves a chance going into the Croatia game.

"Okay, we didn't quite get over the line but at one each in the Croatia game you've got a chance, you've always got that hope, that expectation that you might do it."

Scotland will appear at their fourth European Championship, after 1992, 1996 and 2020, having failed to reach the knockout stages in each of those tournaments.

Clarke's side have just two wins in the finals of the tournament's history, against CIS in 1992 and Switzerland in 1996, and have not found the net in six of their nine matches.

The Scotland manager will become just the third to lead his nation to consecutive international tournaments, along with Andy Roxburgh (1990 World Cup, Euro 92) and Craig Brown (Euro 96, 1998 World Cup).

His message to the players is clear: take it to the last game.

Clarke added: "We play against Hungary in the last game, that's where we want to be – in a similar situation where we know we can get a result and we can qualify."

As for Scotland's starting line-up in Munich, captain Andy Robertson and Lawrence Shankland returned to training in Garmisch-Partenkirchen on Tuesday. 

"I've probably got two in my mind that I'm still mulling over and we'll work on that in the next couple of days," Clarke concluded.

Toni Kroos urged Germany to embrace the "special" pressure of hosting Euro 2024, as Julian Nagelsmann's side prepare to launch the tournament on Friday.

DFB will host their first major international tournament since the 2006 World Cup, where they finished third after losing to eventual champions Italy in the semi-finals. 

Germany launch their campaign against Scotland at Munich Football Arena on Friday, while also facing Hungary and Switzerland in Group A.

And Kroos, who will retire from football after the tournament, wants his team-mates to enjoy the "great honour" of playing in their home event.

"At every tournament on home soil [there is pressure]. It is even more special," the midfielder told reporters during a press conference.

"We know the pressure is there, we don't want to brush it aside, but we have to enjoy this pressure. We want to influence the atmosphere positively, and we have to make amends for past tournaments.

"We know what this is about, but it is also a great honour and joy to play this tournament. How many players do get to play a home tournament?"

Germany are hoping for an upturn in fortunes in major tournaments after suffering back-to-back World Cup group-stage exits, while they were beaten by England in the round of 16 at Euro 2020.

Nagelsmann's side have also endured mixed form in the lead-up to this tournament. Their final warm-up matches brought a goalless draw with Ukraine, and a narrow 2-1 victory over Greece.

Kroos knows the hosts need to up their game, but feels they have the perfect stage on which to address their form.

"You know what is possible when you see the squad quality we have," he added. "But we also see that during some phases in matches, there is room for improvement.

"There is no better opportunity to show in a tournament that we can play well. That is the task.

"If we want to play a good role then it is inevitable that we must minimise these phases when we don't play well as a team. There are teams coming [in the tournament] that will punish us and then the tournament is over."

Late Germany legend Franz Beckenbauer will be honoured during the Euro 2024 opening ceremony on Friday, UEFA has confirmed.

Beckenbauer, who is widely regarded as one of the greatest defenders of all time, passed away in January at the age of 78.

Affectionately nicknamed 'Der Kaiser', he captained Germany to glory at the 1972 European Championship and 1974 World Cup, and was manager as his nation triumphed again on the global stage in 1990.

Each of Germany's record-equalling three European Championship successes will be represented during the ceremony at Munich Football Arena, before the hosts kick off the tournament against Scotland.

Beckenbauer's wife Heidi will bring the Henri Delaunay trophy onto the field with Bernard Dietz and Jurgen Klinsmann, who skippered DFB's winning sides of 1980 and 1996 respectively.

Germany, who are aiming to become only the fourth host nation to win the European Championship, will also face Hungary and Switzerland in Group A.

Niclas Fullkrug is ready to embrace his role as Germany's second-choice striker behind Kai Havertz, and use it as motivation at Euro 2024.

Julian Nagelsmann confirmed Havertz will lead the line at the tournament for the hosts, who begin their campaign against Scotland in Group A on Friday.

Despite playing five fewer games (46), Fullkurg scored more goals (16 to 14), created more assists (11 to seven), recorded a higher xG (19.18 to 14.79) and a higher shot conversion rate (16.67 per cent to 15.22 per cent) than the Arsenal forward in 2023-24.

But the 31-year-old, who discussed the situation with Nagelsmann, fully respects his coach's decision, and welcomes the opportunity to fight for his place.

"The coach has the power and takes the decisions and that's the right way," said Fullkrug, who has scored 11 goals in 16 seniors caps. 

"Since we were young footballers, we were taught about competition. We are all ambitious to play as much as possible and carry responsibility.

"Kai has my full support and I wish him all the goals possible, because that will take us forward in this unique chance we have.

"We are going into the tournament with a good feeling. You have to identify with your role and still accept it, and see it as motivation to work in order to go beyond just this role and get more playing time.

"Basically, it is good to have two different types of strikers. Kai is a completely different striker, defined by a different game. We are both very confident. I don't think many teams will be happy to play against us."

Julian Nagelsmann said he would "not allow any discussion" surrounding Manuel Neuer following his mistake against Greece in their final game ahead of Euro 2024. 

The Bayern Munich goalkeeper was at fault for the opening goal of their encounter with Nikos Papadopoulos' side in Monchengladbach, spilling Christos Tzolis' shot into the path of Georgios Masouras, who tapped home. 

But the tournament hosts were able to overcome that initial setback, with Kai Havertz levelling 10 minutes into the second half before Pascal Gross secured the victory in the final minute of normal time. 

Neuer's error came shortly after it was announced that Stuttgart goalkeeper Alexander Nubel had been dropped from Nagelsmann's 26-man squad, with Oliver Baumann and Marc-Andre ter Stegen named as the other two within the group. 

The 38-year-old has played in every single major tournament for his nation since 2010 but has not played for his country since 2022 due to injury. 

Speaking shortly after the friendly fixture, the German head coach was quick to defend his number one ahead of their Group A opener against Scotland next week, stating that everything was fine before Die Mannschaft's 14th appearance in the competition. 

"I won’t let any discussion arise, even if everyone tries to start one," Nagelsmann said. 

"When he makes a mistake it's easy to say that it was his fault. But at the end of the day, it was a series of mistakes. He pulled off three class saves during the match - saves that others might not be able to make. Everything is fine."

Pascal Gross scored a fine 89th-minute winner as Germany fought back to beat Greece 2-1 in their final friendly ahead of Euro 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK on Friday.

Manuel Neuer has beaten off competition from Marc-Andre ter Stegen for Germany's number one shirt, but an uncharacteristic error from the veteran put the hosts on the back foot in the first half, Giorgos Masouras finishing when the goalkeeper failed to hold Christos Tzolis' shot.

Kai Havertz had a goal disallowed for offside shortly before half-time, but he would not be denied after the break as he saw a shot deflect in after being fed by Leroy Sane.

Substitute Benjamin Henrichs rattled the crossbar from distance with 84 minutes gone as Germany's bid for a winner looked like falling flat.

However, Brighton and Hove Albion man Gross gave the home fans something to cheer with one minute of the 90 remaining, firing a half-cleared cross into the top-right corner for his first international goal.

Data Debrief: Germany ride their luck 

Germany fired off 27 shots without finding the breakthrough against Ukraine in a goalless friendly draw on Monday, but it was a very different game on Friday as they rode their luck somewhat.

Julian Nagelsmann's team recorded just 12 shots worth 0.88 expected goals (xG) to Greece's 14 (2.14 xG), with a brilliant finish from Gross bailing them out after the visitors failed to take their chances. 

Julian Nagelsmann announced he has "basically" made a decision about his final Euro 2024 squad but would not be revealing it until Friday.

Germany face Greece in their final warm-up game on Friday before their home tournament, which they will kick off against Scotland on June 14.

Nagelsmann initially named a provisional squad of 27 and needs to reduce that by one, confirming the official 26-man group by Friday.

The former Bayern Munich manager conceded that places will still be up for grabs depending on performances against Greece but would not give any hints about whom the player likely to drop out would be.

"We have our starting 11 in our heads but the performance in the match and in training must fit," Nagelsmann told a press conference on Thursday.

"Overall, the squad decision has been taken, but I won't announce it, nor talk with those affected, because in the worst case, someone is injured tomorrow, and the player affected needs to slip back in, and it would be silly to have that chat now.

"The decision has basically been made. We'll announce it after the game tomorrow.

"The roles are clear. If Kai [Havertz] performs, he will have the edge. He has to perform. [Niclas Fullkrug] will get his playing time and will be able to score goals and cause a furore.

"Nothing is set in stone. You have to perform to get it set in stone."

One of those included in the preliminary squad is Bayern's Leroy Sane, who sustained a bone injury in May that kept him out of Germany's friendly draw with Ukraine on Monday.

Nagelsmann provided a positive update on the winger's availability, which could be a boost if he stays in the squad for the tournament.

"He is an option for tomorrow. He has done two training sessions," he added.

"However, we cannot calculate him in for 90 minutes of every match. He has found a good way when the tension is there [in his injury] to take it out."

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