Fulham are preparing to visit Crystal Palace with renewed confidence after a dramatic late win in another London derby against Brentford.

Marco Silva's men were trailing heading into stoppage time at Craven Cottage on Monday, only for a sensational Harry Wilson double to snatch a 2-1 victory.

That was a first win in four in the Premier League for Fulham, although their performances might have merited more points.

Alex Iwobi certainly believes so, explaining: "It's a big lift because we feel like our performances recently deserved a lot more, in terms of getting points and results.

"And the way we did it, against Brentford, we knew it wasn't going to be an easy game, a derby as well... To win it in the manner we did has definitely given us a confidence boost going into another London derby against Palace."

Palace have themselves been given a big lift in the past couple of weeks, following their belated first league win of the season against Tottenham with an EFL Cup defeat of Aston Villa and a controversial draw at Wolves.

The Eagles are still only a place above the relegation zone, and Iwobi is hoping Fulham can check their progress.

"We know it's not going to be easy," he said. "Another derby, it's never easy at their stadium.

"We know it's always tough to go and play there, but we're going to analyse, see their weaknesses. It's not easy, but we'll analyse and see what we can do.

"They've only had one win this season – hopefully it remains that way against us and we'll get the result we want."

Will Hughes had a message for the Palace fans ahead of their return to Selhurst Park: "Thanks for sticking with us, as usual.

"It's not been the best of starts for us in the league, but hopefully they can see, especially over the last few games, that we're turning a corner, not only results wise but the intensity we're playing with.

"We were so difficult to play against at the end of last season with our intensity, and I think we've got that bit of mojo back. Hopefully, we can keep pushing on."

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Crystal Palace – Jean-Philippe Mateta

Goals have been hard to come by for Palace this season – especially at Selhurst Park.

Oliver Glasner's side have netted a league-low three times at home, but all of those have been scored by Mateta, continuing his strong form from the end of last season. He has 14 goals in his past 12 home league games for Palace.

They will again rely heavily on the French striker, with Eberechi Eze injured and fellow forward Eddie Nketiah struggling for form. New signing Nketiah has attempted 17 shots without scoring, the most in the Premier League this season.

Fulham – Harry Wilson

There is increased competition in the wide areas for Fulham this season, with Emile Smith Rowe and Reiss Nelson signed and battling with Iwobi, Adama Traore and Wilson for minutes.

But if Wilson cannot get his opportunity after sensationally stealing a win against Brentford last time out, he might wonder if he will ever return to the XI, still waiting for his first league start of the season.

His cutting edge was exactly what Fulham had previously been missing, attempting against Brentford 26 shots – their most in the Premier League for over 10 years – but requiring that late show to come away with the points.

MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW

Following their comeback against Brentford, Fulham are unbeaten in six Premier League London derbies – their longest run since 2006-07 – and also their past five matches against Palace.

Yet four of those clashes with the Eagles have ended all square, including each of the last three.

Palace will hope for more as they look to move clear of the bottom three, but they have not won consecutive league derbies since April 2017 and were victors in their last capital clash against Spurs.

Perhaps 0-0 is therefore the most likely scoreline. Fulham have kept three consecutive clean sheets at Selhurst Park, and their five away matches in the league this season have seen only 11 goals scored.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Crystal Palace – 37.5%
Draw – 26.3%
Fulham – 36.2%

Marco Silva believes Fulham claimed a "deserved win" against Brentford, though admits they should have secured the three points much earlier in their 2-1 victory.

It looked like Vitaly Janelt's 24th-minute strike against the run of play was going to wrap up all three points for Brentford, but Harry Wilson proved the Cottagers' hero off the bench, scoring twice in stoppage time to snatch the three points.

Fulham had dominated from the first whistle and had 26 shots, 12 of which were on target, though they struggled to find a way past their opponents' staunch defence until the 92nd minute.

Wilson became just the sixth player to score an equalising and match-winning goal from the 90th minute onwards in the Premier League, while his second goal was Fulham's latest-ever Premier League winner at 96:46.

Silva was delighted with how his team pushed until the final seconds to ensure they came away with a win.

"It was definitely a deserved win. We started on the front foot and dominated all the game. In the first 20 minutes, we had two clear chances to score," Silva told BBC Sport.

"After they scored, we didn't lose the confidence and the trust in ourselves, we kept pushing them back, and we created enough to not be losing at half-time.

"I told the players this is football, it can happen, but we have to keep pushing, working hard and playing our way.

"It was late, it should've been much before, but that's football."

 

Brentford, meanwhile, have now dropped a league-high 14 points from winning positions in the Premier League as they suffered a fifth consecutive away defeat in the competition.

In fact, they are the first side in the competition's history to score the first goal in four consecutive away games and lose all four.

They had defended resolutely until their late lapse in concentration, and even had a chance to win it, only for Bernd Leno's impressive save to keep out Fabio Carvalho in the 95th minute.

Thomas Frank, though, admitted he was not yet ready to take the positives from the performance after the disappointment of their late defeat.

"It was tough. It is emotionally very tough right now," Frank told Sky Sports.

"When you are leading in the 92nd minute, and you lose, it is tough. I don't think we hit our highest level. I think on the day Fulham were better.

"There was a lot of good defending and effort, and I thought that would have given us the win. We could have won it with the chance for Fabio Carvalho and then we lost.

"When we look at the game back, and we are more cool-headed, we will probably be very happy with the defensive standard. I thought there were unbelievable blocks, and recovery runs and all that we did well. On the ball, we didn't do enough."

Harry Wilson scored twice in stoppage time as Fulham came back to beat Brentford 2-1 in an enthralling West London derby.

Wilson was the hero from Fulham's bench on Monday, as Marco Silva's team – who were on the wrong end of a late comeback against Everton last time out in the Premier League – salvaged a victory from the jaws of defeat.

Fulham will feel it was a win they earned from a match they dominated from the off, with the Bees having taken the lead against the run of play through Vitaly Janelt's stunning 24th-minute strike.

But the Fulham pressure finally told when Wilson rose high to flick in his first in the 92nd minute, and – after Bernd Leno made a superb stop to thwart Brentford at the other end – the former Liverpool midfielder nodded in again to send Craven Cottage into raptures.

Fulham's win takes them up into ninth, while Brentford drop to 12th after suffering a fifth league loss of the season.

Data Debrief: Super-sub Wilson to the rescue

Fulham will feel they deserved to come away from that match with three points, having had 26 shots, 12 of which were on target, in an incredibly dominant display.

They also had 46 touches in the opposition box compared to Brentford's nine, but they could not make those count, at least until Wilson's late intervention as he finally broke through Brentford's stubborn defence. 

The Welshman scored with both of his shots on target, having three attempts overall, with his goals coming from a combined 0.19 expected goals.

The Bees looked sure to get a first away win, and first clean sheet, of the Premier League season until their late lapse in concentration, and they have now dropped 14 points from winning positions in the competition this season, more than any other team. 

The mutual respect shared between the dugouts in west London belies the desire both managers feel to deliver a “special” derby win in west London as Brentford visit Fulham on Monday night.

It is a derby unlikely to disappoint with Brentford’s affinity for goals setting up a potential thriller. There have been a league-high 36 goals scored in Brentford’s nine league matches, while three of the last five league meetings between these two sides have finished 3-2.

Both clubs have established themselves in the English top flight over the past few seasons, with their managers also securing stable tenures, leading to a shared admiration in west London.

Though, with just one point separating the sides in ninth and tenth, both Thomas Frank and Marco Silva will be just as intent on delivering a memorable result for their fans under the lights on Monday.

“A London derby, local derby, is always more special, probably more intense, and it’s always a tough game. Away or at home against them, it’s always a tough game, like it’s always the same for them to play against us,” said Fulham’s Silva.

“We want to give a great feeling to our fans, that is to win a local derby. We know what we are going to face, we know that it’s a little bit more special to the fans, and what we want to give what they deserve from the Monday Night Football.”

Silva can see parallels between his own journey in west London and that of Brentford, who have fared well despite facing their first season without former talisman Ivan Toney.

“You can compare the same story to us as well, losing important players, selling important players, [but] being able to rebuild again,” he explained.

“There are similar things between both sides in that aspect, to sometimes sell their best players and to go again, to try to rebuild, to try to put some young players and fresh players inside. [Frank] is a top person, his job speaks for itself.”

While their similarity in mindset might lead to a shared story, it also means both are just as determined to deliver the three points to their borough of west London.

“In recent years, it has been very tight between the two teams - we have had some fantastic games against each other,” added Frank.

“Now, we're going to play Monday night, under the floodlights, Craven Cottage - a historic stadium - we're bringing 3,000 fans, and we'll do everything we can for them to get the win. I'm really looking forward to it."

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Fulham – Andreas Pereira

Only Bukayo Saka (27) has created more chances in the Premier League this season than Fulham’s Andreas Pereira (26), although none of those chances have been converted by his teammates yet.

He’s set up 11 different players, with only Tottenham’s Dejan Kulusevski creating a chance for more different team-mates (12).

Brentford – Bryan Mbeumo

Mbeumo has netted eight goals in the Premier League this season, with only Erling Haaland scoring more (11). He has scored 11 goals in his last 13 London derbies, including two goals at Craven Cottage in a 3-0 win last campaign.

He has been integral to Brentford’s attacking efforts, having taken the most shots (16) and provided the joint-most key passes (17) in the squad.

MATCH PREDICTION: FULHAM WIN

Fulham are unbeaten in their last five Premier League London derbies (W2 D3), last having a longer unbeaten run against fellow sides from the capital during the 2006-07 season (seven in a row).

They will also be looking to punish the Bees' leaky defence. Brentford have conceded 18 goals in their opening nine Premier League games this season, their most after nine league matches since 1961-62 (19). It’s the first time they haven’t kept a clean sheet at this stage since 2015-16.

Only West Ham (275) have seen more shots in the league than Brentford’s nine games this term (268). The Bees have faced 56 more shots than they’ve had themselves (106 for, 162 against), the third-worst differential behind only Leicester City (-81) and Southampton (-67).

That being said, Brentford have still managed to secure wins despite such a worrying defensive record. While they have shipped eight goals in their last three Premier League games, they have won both of the matches in which they’ve conceded three goals in that time.

Brentford have only lost one of their last 11 away league games against Fulham (W5 D5), failing to score just once at Craven Cottage in that run.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Fulham – 46%

Draw – 24.3%

Brentford – 29.7%

The first managerial departure of the 2024-25 Premier League season has come, with Erik ten Hag leaving his role at Manchester United.

United's decision to dismiss Ten Hag came after the Red Devils slumped to a 2-1 defeat at West Ham on Sunday, leaving them 14th in the table.

Elsewhere, Liverpool and Arsenal shared the spoils in a 2-2 draw, Manchester City downed Southampton, Chelsea beat Newcastle United and Brentford came out on top in a seven-goal thriller against Ipswich Town.

Late goals also ruled the roost this past weekend. There were five games to have a final result-altering goal scored in the 90th minute (or later) in the Premier League this weekend, the most across a single matchday in the competition's history.

But what do the underlying metrics tell us? 

Unlucky losers: Fulham

Fulham took a point away from Goodison Park on Saturday, but Marco Silva thought his team deserved two more. 

And it is fair to say Everton were largely second-best, with Beto's last-gasp equaliser sparring Sean Dyche's team.

Fulham, who took the lead through Alex Iwobi, registered 1.26 expected goals (xG) to Everton's 0.79 and had 14 shots to their hosts' 10. That being said, perhaps Silva's side only have themselves to blame - they converted only 7.14% of their shots and got only three attempts on target.

 

Lucky winners: Bournemouth

Evanilson's late header secured a 1-1 draw for Bournemouth at Aston Villa, and though the Cherries could point to some potential penalty decisions going against them, it is fair to say the metrics suggest they were fortunate to avoid defeat.

Only Southampton (0.21) mustered a lower xG than Bournemouth's 0.31 across the fixtures in the top flight this past weekend.

Villa, on the other hand, registered 1.81 xG - the fifth-highest total in the division across the games - while Mark Travers was exceptional in the Bournemouth goal.

He made seven saves to keep Villa at bay, bar Ross Barkley's opener. Indeed, Villa's 3.23 expected goals on target (xGoT) was more than any other team in matchweek nine, so Travers finished with a goals-prevented figure of 2.23.

Andoni Iraola's team certainly rode their luck.

Unlucky losers: Man Utd

Ten Hag's time is up, though the Dutchman was fuming about a contentious penalty decision that ultimately settled the match in West Ham's favour.

 

When discounting the xG from that penalty, West Ham finished with 2.21 xG - just less than United's 2.34.

United had 18 shots and five big chances (the second-most after Brentford across the weekend's matches), but failed to put those opportunities away, apart from Casemiro's close-range header.

The soft defence that plagued Ten Hag's tenure, though, ultimately came back to bite them yet again.

Everton showed an "endless desire" in their draw against Fulham that pleased Sean Dyche, though Marco Silva bemoaned an "unfair" draw at Goodison Park.

Former Everton midfielder Alex Iwobi put Fulham, managed by ex-Toffees boss Silva, on course for victory in the Premier League on Saturday.

Yet Iwobi's neat 61st-minute finish was cancelled out when Everton substitute Beto headed home deep into added time to salvage a 1-1 draw for the hosts, who are now unbeaten in five league matches, which is their longest such run under Dyche.

Fulham had 60.3% possession and 14 shots to Everton's 10, while also mustering 1.25 expected goals (xG) to the Toffees' 0.79, though Dyche's team did have five shots on target to the visitors' three. 

Everton also had a goal disallowed after Dominic Calvert-Lewin strayed offside before tucking in the rebound from an Idrissa Gueye shot that hit the bar in the first half, albeit Fulham were largely untroubled otherwise.

Dyche knows Everton were not at their best, but was delighted with the grit that was on display to claw out a leveller.

He told Sky Sports: "The mentality is growing, you have to have that in the Premier League.

"We know we're not the real deal, but on a day when we weren't close to where I want us to be, we got a point and kept going and the mentality stayed strong to make sure we did that.

"We've had to grind, had to find a way, that’s sometimes the way the Premier League is. We didn't deserve to win, but we nicked a draw, and have that endless desire to get something from the game. I was really pleased with that side of things."

Silva, meanwhile, insisted his side deserved the points.

"The best team was Fulham, from the first minute until the last minute of the game. We controlled all the game, with the ball, in our way," he told Sky Sports.

"We had three or four clear chances in the first half, and the second half was the same story. When we scored the first, we should have killed the game. We had the chances to score and kill the game and it would have been much more difficult for them.

"They were really lucky – we should have defended it better, that moment inside the box. Our defenders should be there, to control that situation, but the result was really unfair to my players. It's clear we were the better team on the pitch."

Fulham have scored the opening goal in seven Premier League games this season.

However, Fulham have now dropped 10 points from winning positions – only Brentford (11) have lost more.

Beto’s stoppage-time equaliser secured a point for Everton as they came back to draw 1-1 against Fulham at Goodison Park.

The substitute’s intervention extended the host’s unbeaten run to five Premier League matches as Fulham were frustrated despite a dominant display.

Alex Iwobi, on his former stomping ground, put Marco Silva’s team deservedly ahead in the 61st minute.

The assistant’s offside flag had spared Fulham in the first half, when Dominic Calvert-Lewin saw a goal ruled out for offside after Idrissa Gueye had struck the woodwork.

That was the closest Everton came until Beto came up with a close-range header in the 94th minute.

While Fulham sit 10th after stopping the rot following two defeats on the bounce, Everton move up to 15th on nine points.

Data Debrief: Beto proves the saviour at Goodison Park

Despite entering the field after 81 minutes, Beto offered the most of all Everton's forwards. He had the highest expected goals (xG) total from among Dyche's side (0.39).

Such was Everton's lack of attacking output until his entry, he also took the most shots among his teammates (three), only second to Raul Jimenez from both sides (four).

He scored his fourth Premier League (35th appearance), either putting his side ahead (one) or equalising (two) with three of the four.

Michael Keane believes Everton have made themselves hard to beat and is looking forward to testing that theory against Fulham in the Premier League.

The Toffees started the season with a run of four consecutive losses, but have since turned things around, going unbeaten in their last four in the top-flight.

Their 2-0 victory over struggling Ipswich Town last weekend helped move them five points clear of the relegation zone in the early standings.

And Keane is delighted with the uptick in their form as they look to extend that run at Goodison Park on Saturday.

"We've become hard to play against," Keane told evertontv.

"Obviously, against Newcastle, it wasn't our best performance but we grinded it out by doing all the ugly things really well and [last week], I think we played a lot better than we did and we got a deserved win.

"To have four games unbeaten now, it gives you that momentum and that confidence going into the next games."

Meanwhile, Fulham have suffered back-to-back losses against Manchester City and Aston Villa in recent weeks, following a five-match unbeaten streak in the league.

Marco Silva is looking to get back to winning ways against his former club and has won his last two away games against Everton in the Premier League.

However, the Cottagers went down to 10 men against Villa, having given up their lead, and Silva was left bemused by the decision that will leave him without Joachim Andersen for the trip to Merseyside.

"[Villa was] not the best performance from us," Silva said.

"But we're all confused [about the red card], we all don't understand, even for you, for fans for staff, managers and players, we're all confused because when things happen, we try to understand why and respect."

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Everton – Dwight McNeil

Dwight McNeil has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League appearances (three goals, three assists) for Everton.

He is only the third Toffees player with three goals and three assists in the opening eight games of a season, after Francis Jeffers in 1999-00 and James Rodriguez in 2020-21.

Fulham – Raul Jimenez

Raul Jimenez has scored or assisted in each of his last five Premier League appearances for Fulham (four goals, one assist).

No Cottagers player has done so in six games in a row, while only three players have scored or assisted in six in a row aged 33 or older: Gus Poyet aged 34 in 2001, Dennis Bergkamp aged 35 in 2004, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic aged 35 in 2017.

MATCH PREDICTION: EVERTON WIN

Since losing their first four Premier League matches this season, Everton are unbeaten in four games (W2 D2). Only once have the Toffees gone five unbeaten under Sean Dyche, doing so in April and May this year.

And their record in October is impressive - Everton have kept six clean sheets in their last seven such Premier League games (W4 D2 L1), including both games this season. Since 2022-23, the Toffees have averaged 0.75 points per game in August and September (P20 W3 D6 L11) compared to 1.55 points per game in October (W5 D2 L4).

Since Dyche's first Premier League games in charge of Everton, only Arsenal (33) have scored more goals via set pieces (excl. pens) than the Toffees (27).

However, Everton were unbeaten in their first 27 home league games against Fulham between 1949 and 2018 (W23 D4), winning each of the last 22 of those. Since then, they have lost their last three at home to the Cottagers.

In fact, Fulham are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games against the Toffees (W3 D2), keeping four clean sheets in the process. All three of those wins in that run have come at Goodison Park.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Everton – 40.9%

Draw – 26.7%

Fulham – 32.4%

Premier League football returned after the international break with a bang, with 28 goals scored, five players sent off and two injury-time winners over the weekend.

The action kicked off with a London derby as Tottenham swept aside West Ham, with Leicester City producing a remarkable comeback to beat Southampton before Aston Villa kept pace with the top four with a 3-1 win over Fulham.

Manchester United came from a goal down to beat Brentford, as Everton extended their unbeaten run at the expense of Ipswich Town, while Arsenal were dealt their first defeat of the season away to Bournemouth after William Saliba's dismissal. 

Liverpool remained at the Premier League summit after beating Chelsea in an entertaining affair at Anfield, but Manchester City are hot on their heels, albeit they needed a late John Stones header to edge past Wolves. 

So, after all that, who were the unlucky, and lucky, teams based on the underlying metrics?

Unlucky losers: Newcastle United

Newcastle's poor run of form continued in the Premier League as Danny Welbeck's strike helped Brighton to a 1-0 triumph at St. James' Park. 

However, the Magpies will feel they should have taken at least a point for their efforts, ending the contest with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.02, a number only bettered by Southampton (2.15) and Leicester City (3.21) across the weekend's fixtures. 

Fifteen of Newcastle's attempts also came from inside the box compared to Brighton's eight, while Eddie Howe's side managed 45 touches in the opposition box, with only Man City (85) registering more on matchday eight.

Newcastle managed 21 shots, though only six were on target, with Brighton ultimately being more clinical. The Seagulls accumulated an xG total of 1.12 from their 10 attempts, but also had Bart Verbruggen to thank, with the Dutchman making six saves on the day. 

Lucky winners: Liverpool

Arne Slot continued his excellent start to life as Liverpool head coach with a 2-1 victory over Chelsea, though this was arguably his toughest assignment to date. 

While the Reds ended the contest with an xG total of 1.94 compared to Chelsea's 0.99, it was Enzo Maresca's side that posed the bigger questions at Anfield, registering 12 shots, though only two were on Caoimhin Kelleher's goal. 

Jadon Sancho also felt he should have been awarded a penalty for a tangle of legs with Trent Alexander-Arnold in the first half, with Nicolas Jackson also striking the woodwork before the interval. 

The Blues also managed more shots in the box (nine) compared to Liverpool's seven, as well as registering more touches in the opposition box (26 to Liverpool's 17) and 56 final third entries to the Reds' 54. 

Indeed, Liverpool's non-penalty xG was 1.15, so a 1-1 draw would probably have been a fair result.

Unlucky losers: Fulham 

After pushing Man City all the way before the international break, Fulham returned with another good performance, but fell short once again, this time against Aston Villa.

Morgan Rogers quickly cancelled out Raul Jiminez's opener, though Andreas Pereira fluffed his lines from the penalty spot after a brilliant save from Emiliano Martinez. 

Fulham accumulated an xG total of 1.78 compared to Villa's 1.68, but Ollie Watkins and Issa Diop's unfortunate own-goal sealed the triumph for Unai Emery's side, who are back in Champions League action in midweek. 

Marco Silva's team were left to rue another encounter with squandered opportunities, failing to take any of the four big chances they created, while only four of their 10 attempts at Craven Cottage were on target compared to Villa's five from 14 shots.  

Morgan Rogers saluted Aston Villa's quick response to falling behind early on after his side came back to beat Fulham 3-1.

Rogers scored the equaliser after nine minutes to get the visitors back on level terms after Raul Jimenez had put Fulham ahead early at Craven Cottage.

Ollie Watkins's header and Issa Diop's own goal in the second half secured the win that moved Unai Emery's side into fourth on 17 points, only behind Arsenal and Manchester City on goal difference.

Rogers lauded how important the quick response was to taking all three points in London.

"It was massive to respond how we did so quickly. It helped settle the nerves and we were generally playing well and to get it so quick did help," he told PLP.

"They scored in the first five minutes, but we knuckled down after that and we dominated pretty much most of the game. We should have scored a few more, but in the second half we put our foot on the gas, and we deserved the win.

"After the international break you start fresh with a clean slate and to get the win is massive. We have an important week and it's just the start of it."

While level at 1-1, Emiliano Martinez saved Andreas Pereira's penalty to keep Villa in the game after Matty Cash had handled the ball in the box.

"That's why [Martinez] is the best. That's what he does. If it goes 2-1 anything can happen in the game," praised Rogers.

Fulham's Kenny Tete emphasised the defeat rested on more than the penalty miss on what proved to be a wasteful day for the hosts.

"It happened and you have to push for more - it is what it is. [At] half-time, we changed the game-plan, it was a bit better. Then it goes 2-1 and you know it is going to be difficult," he reflected.

"We could have had a bit more luck, but I don't want to point to that. It wasn't our day and we could have done better. We can look in the mirror and we have to do better and train harder. Frustrated."

Fulham had the better expected goals (xG) total at full-time with 1.78, compared to Villa’s 1.68, though this was impacted by their penalty.

The hosts also had to play 26 minutes of the match with 10 players after Joachim Andersen received his marching orders, while Villa also saw Jaden Philogene dismissed in the 93rd minute.

"Obviously a disappointed feeling. I think we started well. Then we were unlucky with the own goal. But, we get a penalty and we didn't score it. It was going to be a difficult afternoon," added Tete.

Aston Villa climbed back into the Premier League's top four after coming from behind to beat Fulham 3-1 in an entertaining clash at Craven Cottage that saw both teams finish with 10 men.

There was a frantic start to the match on Saturday, with Villa attacker Morgan Rogers cancelling out Raul Jimenez's earlier effort inside the opening nine minutes.

Fulham threatened regularly in the first half, but were ultimately made to pay for their profligacy.

Jimenez headed a glorious opportunity wide from four yards out, before Andreas Pereira had a penalty saved by Emiliano Martinez after Matty Cash was penalised for handball following a VAR review.

Villa capitalised when Ollie Watkins put them in front for the first time just before the hour mark, heading home at the near post from Youri Tielemans' corner.

Shortly after Joachim Andersen's straight red card for fouling Watkins, Issa Diop's own goal put the result beyond doubt, though Unai Emery's side also finished a man down after substitute Jaden Philogene was sent off for two bookable offences.

Data Debrief: Villa dish out more capital punishment

After overturning an early deficit, Villa went on to record their ninth victory from their last 13 Premier League games in London.

The visitors' second and third goals both came from crosses, taking their tally of such goals for the season to seven, with no Premier League side registering more.

Continuing his fine form, Watkins scored against Fulham for the sixth time, matching his best tally against a single opponent (Brighton, also six).

Marco Silva is hoping Fulham’s 3-2 defeat to champions Manchester City will give his players “courage” against Aston Villa upon their return to Premier League action.

The Cottagers went toe-to-toe with Pep Guardiola’s side before the international break but were made to rue missed opportunities during the contest, with Adama Traore the most notable for squandering some gilt-edged chances at the Etihad.

However, Silva is confident his team can take encouragement from their display as they aim to maintain their unbeaten record at Craven Cottage this season.

“To see City finish with three central defenders with five at the back shows that we were creating problems for them, not just in transition,” Silva said.

“It gives us courage. We know what we are capable of doing, and it gives us the confidence to keep going in the direction that we want to go in, and to stick with our philosophy as a team.

“Looking at the chances that we did create throughout the game and comparing with City, we deserved more. But that’s football.”

Unai Emery, meanwhile, insisted his Aston Villa side will be raring to go when they return to domestic action after their stalemate with Manchester United last time out.

It was the Villans’ first goalless draw at Villa Park in the Premier League since May 2021, while the expected goals (xG) total between the two sides was just 1.05 – the lowest in a top-flight match so far this season.

With the international break allowing Villa to recuperate after a busy September schedule that saw them start their Champions League campaign with two wins, returning players will be a welcome addition, the Spaniard believes.

“It’s a nice moment to rest. This week we are going to work and recover some players. We are going to add [Boubacar] Kamara and [Tyrone] Mings, which is very good news. Hopefully some injured players can come back for the next match against Fulham,” Emery said.

“We will need players. Today we were more or less with some players out and we needed fresh players with good legs in the second half to help get our objective in this match.

“The players were really focusing on this match and gave their best. I’m happy because we are feeling strong here with our supporters and keeping a good position in the league and Champions League targeting our objectives. We are going to try to get there.”

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Fulham – Andreas Pereira

No player has played more passes (including crosses) into the opposition box than Fulham’s Pereira in the Premier League this season (64), with the Brazilian also creating the most chances from set plays (16).

Pereira has also created 23 chances overall this term (level with Cole Palmer and Dwight McNeil), a total only bettered by Arsenal's Bukayo Saka (27) in the Premier League so far.

Aston Villa – Jhon Duran

After netting in midweek while on international duty with Colombia, Duran will be hoping to continue his remarkable scoring streak at Craven Cottage.

Duran has four goals in just 184 minutes of action in the Premier League this season, averaging a goal every 46 minutes so far. This is the best minutes-per-goal ratio of anyone to feature for at least 90 minutes this term.

MATCH PREDICTION: FULHAM WIN

Fulham are unbeaten in their three Premier League home games so far this season (W2 D1). They last had a longer run without defeat at Craven Cottage from the start of a campaign in 2011-12 (four).

The Cottagers lost this exact fixture 2-1 in February last season, though they have never lost consecutive home league games against Aston Villa before.

However, they face an uphill task against Emery’s men, who are unbeaten in their last five league games (W3 D2), though their 0-0 draw with United last time out was their first clean sheet in 12 Premier League matches.

Visits to London have proven fruitful for the Villans in recent years. They have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League games in the capital (W8 D3). Their eight wins in this time (all under Emery) are as many as they’d managed in their previous 48 top-flight games in London.

Villa have also won five of their last six Premier League games against Fulham (L1), including the last three in a row. It’s more wins than they’d managed in their previous 19 against the Cottagers in the top-flight (W4 D10 L5), while they’ve never won four in a row against them in their league history.

No team has scored more goals from crosses than Aston Villa in the Premier League this season (five). No player has scored more such goals than Ollie Watkins (two), while Lucas Digne and Youri Tielemans have two such assists each – only Saka (four) has more.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Fulham – 40.5%

Draw – 25.5%

Aston Villa – 34%

There were plenty of thrills and spills across the board in the Premier League as matchday seven ran its course.

Manchester City and Arsenal both had to come from behind to beat Fulham and Southampton respectively at home, while there were eight goals scored as Brentford overcame Wolves 5-3, with six of those strikes coming in the first half in west London.

Liverpool kept themselves ahead at the summit thanks to a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace, while Manchester United stopped the rot by holding Aston Villa, albeit they have now tallied up their lowest points total after seven games of any Premier League season.

Leicester City, meanwhile, grabbed their first win of the campaign, while Anthony Gordon endured a miserable return to Goodison Park with Newcastle United. In the final fixture of the weekend, Brighton stunned Tottenham, forging a second-half comeback to win 3-2 at the Amex Stadium.

So, after all that, who were the unlucky, and lucky, teams based on the underlying metrics?

Lucky winners: Leicester City

Leicester finally got their first top-flight win of the season on the board, as they edged out Bournemouth 1-0 thanks to Facundo Buonanotte's excellent run and finish.

But, it's fair to say it was something of a smash-and-grab for Steve Cooper's team at the King Power Stadium. Leicester had just six shots, with only two of those hitting the target, and they tallied up just 0.79 expected goals (xG).

 

On the other hand, Bournemouth had 19 attempts, creating five big chances (a tally bettered only by Brentford's eight and West Ham's nine this week) and accumulating 2.16 xG.

Bournemouth only have themselves to blame for wasteful finishing – they got just two of their efforts on target – but the Cherries can still consider themselves unfortunate.

Unlucky losers: Newcastle

Determined to impress against his former club, Gordon fluffed his lines when his big moment arrived as Newcastle drew 0-0 with Everton on Saturday.

With James Tarkowski having conceded a penalty by recklessly pulling the shirt of Sandro Tonali, Gordon stepped up to the spot, but Jordan Pickford guessed the right way.

While Everton wanted a penalty of their own in the second half, the Toffees were largely second-best and that is backed up by the metrics. Even discounting Gordon's spot-kick, Newcastle finished with 1.26 xG and 14 shots. The hosts accumulated 0.67 xG and had eight attempts.

Lucky winners: Man City

It's not often that the champions are given a run for their money at home, but Fulham did just that.

 

Indeed, Fulham finished with 2.6 xG at the Etihad Stadium, the fourth-highest total across the league this weekend, while they created five big chances.

Pep Guardiola has said he is not concerned by Man City's unusually open defence, but he will want to see better from his team in that regard after the international break.

Going forward, City benefited from three excellent finishes - two from Mateo Kovacic and one from Jeremy Doku. Their 1.57 xG came from 20 shots, though they created only one big chance.

Pep Guardiola is not worried about Manchester City's defending despite the reigning champions failing to keep a clean sheet in their last six Premier League matches.

City went 1-0 down against Fulham before fighting back to win 3-2 on Saturday. Their opponents also amassed an expected goals (xG) total of 2.4 compared to City's 1.55.

It follows a trend of unusually sloppy defensive displays from the champions, who have conceded eight goals in their last six league matches. They also had to come from behind against Brentford in September.

Guardiola, however, is not overly worried.

"Sometimes I give credit. The first goal – why don't we give credit to them rather than [be critical] defensively? There are actions we can defend better but step by step we will improve," he said, via the Guardian.

"I would say except [Yoane] Wissa against Brentford, in the other ones we were playing good. It's not nice to come back from 0-1 but we created chances today to go 1-0 and 2-0."

City allowed Fulham five big chances compared to their one, with the London side taking 11 shots, nine of those from inside the box.

Comparatively, City had 20 shots with only half of those coming from inside the box. However, two of the visitors’ goals came from outside the area with Jeremy Doku and Mateo Kovacic both firing in from distance. 

"I'm very happy he scored two goals, he's not a guy to score [usually] those goals," Guardiola said of Kovacic, who is one of the midfielders the City boss expects to fill in for the injured Rodri this season.

“We started really well with two chances in two minutes and they switched immediately to five at the back. When they do that, we have one man free on the 18-yard box and that is Kovacic.

"The two goals were because they couldn't defend that. We have to exploit that more against teams that don’t play five at the back – now opponents know that they can’t leave him [Kovacic] alone, otherwise he will score a goal."

Two-goal hero Mateo Kovacic dedicated his double to his future child following Manchester City's 3-2 victory over Fulham.

Kovacic scored either side of half-time to complete the turnaround, as Pep Guardiola's side came from behind to maintain the pressure on Premier League leaders Liverpool, who they trail by a single point.

The Croatian's deflected strike in the 32nd minute levelled the contest, before he swept City in front from 20 yards within two minutes of the restart.

That took Kovacic's goal tally for the season to three - already his best return in a single Premier League campaign - and his strikes had added significance on a personal level.

"It means a lot because my wife is pregnant, so it was great to get some goals for the little one," he said. "It is never easy to play in the Premier League and, today, we showed great character. 

"We dominated in the beginning and couldn't score, conceded the goal and then came back quickly. In the end, we won it. It was a tough game against an opponent in good form, so for us, it is good to continue winning.

"It is always important to get the win. It doesn't matter who scores; the most important thing is getting three points. Now, we hope to continue like this."

Kovacic anchored City's midfield in the absence of Rodri, who suffered a season-ending anterior cruciate ligament injury in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal a fortnight ago.

"I am playing there in the middle at the moment and, of course, we need to cover for Rodri. We miss him a lot," the 30-year-old added.

"I think any team would miss him, the player that he is, and we wish him a speedy recovery and hope he comes back in as good a shape as possible. 

"For now, we have to adapt and, for sure, the manager has a lot of options, so we can rotate."

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