When Kamaru Usman steps into the cage on Saturday against Leon Edwards, he will be defending not just his UFC welterweight title, but also his status as mixed martial arts' top pound-for-pound talent.
Usman, 35, has never lost in the UFC, compiling a 15-0 run in the welterweight division since winning his season of the popular reality show The Ultimate Fighter.
After nine wins with the promotion, Usman was rewarded with a title shot against Tyron Woodley and manhandled the champion in dominating fashion, and since his first defence against Colby Covington in a competitive win, he is yet to be truly challenged.
Against an elite striker, he defeated Jorge Masvidal twice, including a stunning knockout in their second meeting.
When faced with an elite wrestler in Covington – who has arguably not lost a single round to anybody other than Usman since 2015 – the champion showed incredible toughness to outlast his outspoken opponent for a technical knockout in the first fight, before completely dominating the rematch to close that chapter.
Completing his championship resume is his knockout victory against Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion Gilbert Burns, who figured to be too good of a grappler to be manhandled by Usman, so he instead unveiled his new and improved jab to pummel the challenger to a third-round stoppage.
To this point of his championship reign, Usman has fought specialists, and has passed every test with flying colours – so what happens against a supreme jack of all trades like Edwards?
His British opponent is undefeated in the past seven years, with Edwards' last loss coming against the very champion he is looking to dethrone, going down to Usman via unanimous decision in December 2015.
Why should anything be different this time around? Well, while Usman was a 28-year-old imposing physical specimen in 2015, Edwards was a raw 24-year-old less than a year removed from a split-decision loss to journeyman Claudio Silva.
Usman had grown up as a wrestler, competing his entire life in the sport, culminating in a 44-1 record and a division two national championship as a senior in college before deciding to pivot to mixed martial arts.
Edwards grew up in Birmingham, after moving from Jamaica at nine years old, with no real grappling background, and at such an early stage in his career, he was unequipped to handle the smothering physical presence which Usman presented.
Seven years later, Edwards is a completely different fighter, with some of the sharpest kickboxing in the division, as well as a terrific pressure-grappling game.
Among active UFC welterweights, Edwards absorbs the second-fewest strikes per minute at 2.15, trailing only Michael Chiesa (0.79) who has since moved down to lightweight. He also finds himself in the top-10 for total grappling control time and takedowns landed.
It creates an interesting dynamic, as not only has Edwards become someone nearly impossible to control in the grappling side of things, but he is also an expert in point-fighting on the feet, while being extremely durable.
Despite this being his first title fight, Edwards has an average fight time of 15 minutes and 15 seconds – which is notable considering all non-main events only last 15 minutes. It shows he thrives in long, grinding fights, which he is sure to be faced with against Usman.
It poses the question: What is Usman's game plan?
Against another terrific controlling grappler – Covington – Usman was able to rely on his below-average striking and turn it into a kickboxing match since Covington's striking was also so weak.
Usman's striking has improved significantly, but he will not have an advantage in that area against Edwards, and while Usman is seemingly impossible to finish with strikes, Edwards has shown repeatedly that he is more than happy to point-fight his way to a decision.
So what happens if Usman's first few takedown attempts are unsuccessful, and this turns into a rangy kickboxing battle?
Does he continue to try and grapple and clinch, pushing Edwards against the cage, using his physicality, or does he try to test out his developing striking skills? If he opts for the latter, he could find himself down a round or two against a fighter who will not slow down, and who has been planning for this rematch for seven years.
Knockouts can be addicting, and after three consecutive eye-opening striking performances from Usman, who has been working with world-famous striking coach Trevor Wittman for two years now, his hubris in his standup abilities could prove to be his fatal flaw against an opponent so skilled in avoiding damage on the feet.
Usman is the deserved favourite, the current pound-for-pound king and the most dominant champion in the male divisions.
But to beat such an established minute-winner in what is almost assured to be a 25-minute decision, Usman must avoid his own ego and steer clear of the striking exchanges that have defined his evolution as a champion.
The Numbers Game: Can Chelsea dent title hopes of misfiring Gunners?
Ten matches into the Premier League season, Arsenal's hopes of ending their long wait for a league title are already in danger.
Last week's 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United made it just seven points from five games, and they now trail leaders Liverpool by seven points.
Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on Arteta's men, and things do not get much easier for them on Sunday, against a Chelsea team currently above them on goal difference.
Enzo Maresca's Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten them since the Italian took over.
We delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday's headline fixture at Stamford Bridge.
What's expected?
Given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday's match, the Opta supercomputer finds it difficult to split.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 41.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who are a 33.2% shot.
The likelihood of a draw is rated at 25.6%, but you sense Arsenal need to take all three points after seeing their hopes of winning the title drop to 4.4% in Opta's season predictions. Chelsea's own hopes are rated at 0.3%, with City (61.9%) still clear favourites ahead of Liverpool (33.4%).
Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, six defeats), a 2-0 away win in August 2021. The Gunners have managed three victories in their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (one draw) – as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 visits (seven draws, 10 defeats).
Arsenal have also won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3, winning six of those matches by five or more goals.
One such occasion was a 5-0 rout of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium last April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against the Blues in all competitions.
Blues eye statement victory
When the Premier League fixture list was drawn up, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan may have struggled to visualise the Blues sitting ahead of Arsenal in the table after 10 games.
But Maresca's side have shown promising signs in the early stages of his tenure. Chelsea's last two Premier League defeats this season have come against last season's top three teams – 0-5 versus Arsenal in April, 0-2 versus City in August and 1-2 against Liverpool in October.
They are unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven while scoring 57 goals in total across those games.
The future looks bright for Chelsea, who fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week – their youngest-ever XI for a Premier League match against Manchester United.
However, they are still waiting on a first statement win under Maresca, and getting one over on the Gunners would earn him plenty of goodwill among the fans.
Their chances could be decided by the fitness of Cole Palmer, who is an injury doubt after suffering a knock against United.
He opened the scoring when the Blues last welcomed Arsenal to west London for a 2-2 draw last October, scoring his first Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge.
Since then, he has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21), also leading the way for goal involvements (12 – seven goals, five assists, alongside Mohamed Salah) and open-play chances created in 2024-25.
Can fit-again Odegaard get Gunners firing?
Last season, Arsenal won 42 of their 89 Premier League points on their travels, taking nine points from five matches at the homes of their Big Six rivals.
This campaign, however, their failure to hit top form on the road has threatened to end their latest title tilt before it truly got going.
Arsenal have collected seven points from five away matches this term, the same amount as Brighton and fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).
While Arteta has long preached the importance of control, Arsenal have simply not been good enough going forward in those matches. They have attempted just 37 shots on the road in the Premier League this season (7.4 per game), with only Brentford (seven) averaging fewer per away match across the entire division.
The fact Arsenal played significant amounts of time at Manchester City and Bournemouth with a numerical disadvantage likely plays a part, but the fact five teams have attempted at least twice as many shots on the road does not make for good reading (Manchester City 90, Tottenham 83, Crystal Palace 79, Bournemouth 78 and Manchester United 74).
Martin Odegaard's return to training after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost, with the Norwegian having led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.17 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.
Arsenal have actually outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.75 expected goals (xG), so their finishing does not appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.
Arteta will hope Odegaard's return can make the difference, or a title challenge may prove a bridge too far. The last time they lost three successive away Premier League games was in December 2021, and they went on to miss out on a top-four finish that season.
The Norwegian was a late substitute as they were beaten 1-0 by Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. They have now lost three of their last six games in all competitions, as many as their previous 32 beforehand.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson
Since the start of last season, Chelsea striker Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, two assists).
All of his 12 involvements have come in his last nine such appearances, and he already has six Premier League goals this term.
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (seven).
He has also either scored (once) or assisted (twice) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Aguero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.
Premier League MD10: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
We are now 10 games into the Premier League season and the table is beginning to take shape, but that does not mean there is no room for an upset or two.
On Saturday, both Manchester City and Arsenal fell to surprise defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle United respectively.
It was only the third time since the start of 2017-18 that both of the previous season's top two teams had lost on the same day in the Premier League, after March 7, 2021 and January 14, 2023.
Pep Guardiola's champions could have few complaints about the result at the Vitality Stadium, where Andoni Iraola's Cherries won the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.04 to 1.56.
But which other games featured a lucky winner or an unlucky loser? We delve into the Opta data to find out.
Unlucky losers: Arsenal
The weekend's action began with Arsenal travelling to St James' Park to face Newcastle, with Mikel Arteta's side chasing a victory to move within a point of leaders Liverpool.
However, they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat as Alexander Isak's early goal proved enough for Newcastle to make it three wins in their last four home league games against Arsenal (one loss).
The Gunners could count themselves unlucky to come away from Tyneside with nothing, however, after limiting Newcastle to a measly 0.53 xG – 0.25 of which came from the chance for Isak's goal.
Only West Ham, who played half of their defeat to Nottingham Forest with 10 men, created a lower figure across the nine games to take place this weekend, with 0.13 xG.
Arsenal were far from their free-flowing best, though, only recording 10 attempts worth 1.05 xG themselves. They have averaged just 7.4 shots per game in their away Premier League matches this season, with only Brentford (7.5) taking fewer.
Lucky winners: Southampton
Just two teams – Wolves and Ipswich Town – remain without a victory in the Premier League after Southampton finally got off the mark by beating Everton 1-0 at St Mary's.
Russell Martin's team accumulated just 0.74 xG to Everton's 1.56, but Adam Armstrong's strike five minutes from time handed them a huge three points in their fight for safety.
While Beto, who headed against the crossbar just 25 seconds before Armstrong's winner, and Jack Harrison spurned great chances for the Toffees, Southampton were also grateful for a late VAR intervention, as the former saw a potential leveller chalked off for a marginal offside call.
It was the first time Everton had failed to score against Southampton in the Premier League since February 2022, bringing their five-match unbeaten run in the competition to a halt.
Unlucky losers: Crystal Palace
Southampton ended the weekend in 19th, above winless Wolves after they were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Molineux.
Marc Guehi salvaged a draw for the Eagles, who were without star men Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze yet arguably still did enough to leave the West Midlands with all three points.
They racked up 19 shots totalling 2.51 xG to their hosts' 11, which had a total value of 1.51 xG. Palace's xG figure was the highest in the Premier League this weekend, but they were missing their shooting boots as Ismaila Sarr squandered two glorious chances when they were a goal to the good in the second half.
With both defences struggling, this was only the second Premier League game of the season to be goalless at half-time but see both sides score at least twice in the second half, after Everton 2-3 Bournemouth in August.
There could have been a fifth goal in stoppage time, too, as Jean-Phillipe Mateta saw a potential winner disallowed for a foul on Jose Sa in the build-up. Wolves – and their under-fire head coach Gary O'Neil – arguably got away with one.
Lucky winners: Chelsea
Sunday's late game saw Chelsea fight back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United at Old Trafford, denying Ruud van Nistelrooy a first Premier League win as the Red Devils' interim head coach.
Moises Caicedo's well-taken volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes' penalty and Chelsea arguably looked the more likely victors in the second half, but they only generated 1.1 xG from their 12 attempts – and just 0.29 from six after the interval.
United, meanwhile, had chances worth 1.98 xG, though Fernandes' spot-kick – with an xG value of 0.79 – was a major contributing factor.
Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho squandered decent opportunities for United, though, and incoming boss Ruben Amorim has plenty of work to do with their attackers.
United have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League games this season – their worst record through 10 matches of any league campaign since 1973-74 (also nine).
Fans of a certain vintage will need no reminder of what happened at the end of that season – United were relegated from the First Division, their fate sealed by club legend Denis Law scoring against them with a nonchalant backheel, while representing rivals Man City.
Manchester United out to prove WSL title credentials against resurgent Arsenal
The Women’s Super League is back after a break for the international fixtures with a blockbuster clash between Manchester United and Arsenal.
United have set down an early marker and are unbeaten so far this term (W3 D1). Arsenal, meanwhile, have already parted ways with their boss of three years, Jonas Eidevall. It has been a tumultuous start of the season for the Gunners (W2 D2 L1).
Arsenal, however, may feel like they have turned a corner under caretaker boss Renee Slegers, the former assistant to Eidevall who has stepped into the interim role. Picking up a much-needed three points against West Ham last time out kept them in touch with the top four.
The Gunners have also got their Champions League campaign back on track after losing their first game to Bayern Munich. They defeated Valerenga comfortably, so will be looking to keep up the momentum with a third straight win.
United’s strong start to the season has seen them quietly go about their work with an impressive steeliness to their performances. They have only played four games and have a game in hand against Chelsea due to a clash with the Blues’ Champions League schedule.
Marc Skinner’s side are not quite the same as the team that won the FA Cup last season. The most notable absence is goalkeeper Mary Earps, who left in the summer, along with club captain Katie Zelem, Nikita Parris and Lucia Garcia.
That said, the early signs suggest the summer’s significant changes to the squad have not halted the progress made in 2023-24, a season that saw the club lift the first major domestic silverware in their history.
This fixture will be Skinner’s 100th game in charge of United in all competitions. His win rate with the Red Devils (62.6% – 62/99) is by far his best with a team across his managerial career (47% at Birmingham City, 21% at Orlando Pride).
The Opta supercomputer is anticipating a close encounter on Sunday. Despite Arsenal’s early troubles, they are given a 38.9% chance of getting the away win. United are only just behind on 35.1% and the probability of a draw is 26.0%.
It is certainly a match that has all the ingredients to be a thriller. But where might the game be won and lost?
United have only lost one of their last four home games against Arsenal in the WSL (W2 D1), drawing 2-2 with the Gunners in this fixture last season.
Their good early form this season has been partly down to their defensive success and the ‘red wall’ they have constructed. Skinner knows that to challenge for the WSL title, his team must be solid at the back, and they have some of the best numbers in the league.
United's red wall
United have only lost one of their last four home games against Arsenal in the WSL (W2 D1), drawing 2-2 with the Gunners in this fixture last season.
Their good early form this season has been partly down to their defensive success and the ‘red wall’ they have constructed. Skinner knows that to challenge for the WSL title, his team must be solid at the back, and they have some of the best numbers in the league.
United boast the best defence in the WSL this season, conceding only once. Their underlying numbers are good, too. Their 3.95 expected goals against is bettered by only Arsenal (3.56), albeit from one game fewer. Both sides have kept three clean sheets.
United average 0.98 xGA per game in the WSL this term, while they have faced 10.25 shots per game.
Losing Earps to Paris Saint-Germain was a concern for United fans, but they should feel assured that their new number one has risen to the challenge.
Before joining United last summer, Phallon Tullis-Joyce was a regular starter for both her former clubs Reims and Seattle Reign. She knew on her arrival at United that she would be in the shadow of Earps but that did not discourage her. Fast forward a year, and the American’s 93.3% save percentage is the best in the WSL this season.
Tullis-Joyce has a goals prevented figure of 2.74, having conceded just once from an expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 3.74. Having saved almost three goals more than she ‘should’ have, Tullis-Joyce is the best-performing goalkeeper in the WSL based on the metric.
United also boast some of the brightest young talent in the league and Skinner is finding a way to cultivate their skills.
Maya Le Tissier became the youngest player to reach 100 WSL starts when she featured against Brighton last time out, breaking the record set by Lauren Hemp in December last year.
She has also been a feature of United’s prowess on and off the ball. Le Tissier marked her milestone start with a strong performance at the Amex Stadium, leading United for touches (80), passes (67) and completed passes (56).
Indeed, no United player has had as many touches (351) as the defender this term. She also shone for England during the international break combining with club-mate Grace Clinton for the Lionesses’ second goal in their 2-1 win against South Africa.
Renee's renaissance
With back-to-back wins and six goals in their two games since Eidevall’s departure, the Arsenal dressing room will certainly feel they are starting to get things back on track. And with a new manager reportedly not close to being announced, interim boss Slegers has the opportunity to prove her credentials for the role.
Arsenal have scored six goals from 4.58 xG in their past two matches. Whereas under Eidevall the Gunners were missing chances with regularity, they have seemingly picked up their finishing under interim boss Slegers. They had scored four goals from 7.0 xG under Eidevall in their first four league matches.
Slegers certainly looks like she’s instilled some extra confidence in her players.
Arsenal have won their last three away games in the WSL and could win four in a row on the road in the league for the first time since December 2022 (eight). That would be the kind of momentum they need in order to challenge United and the other top four sides.
They are beginning to realise some of the potential they showed in pre-season, and the dynamism they lacked last season when they ultimately fell short of a title challenge.
Summer signing Mariona Caldentey has finally got the WSL goal her performances have merited. The former Barcelona star has created 12 chances this season, and accumulated 1.96 expected assists (xA) – the most in the Gunners’ squad.
Her impressive performance in the Champions League win over Valerenga felt like the catalyst she needed. Two goals in two games have proved she has the ability to provide the kind of threat from midfield that Arsenal have previously lacked.
The Gunners may need to lean on their more experienced talent, especially when it comes to changing the game from the bench. Since the beginning of last season, no player has been directly involved in more WSL goals as a substitute than Stina Blackstenius (six – five goals, one assist), with four of her last five goal involvements coming from the bench (three goals, one assist). Last time out against West Ham she helped turn the tide, too.
The biggest change under Slegers has been her desire to commit to a number one, which Eidevall seemed to be on the fence over.
He added to the goalkeeper ranks this summer in the form of Dutch international Daphne van Domselaar, and that’s who Slegers has committed to.
Van Domeslaar, like Tullis-Joyce, has kept three clean sheets this term. She has conceded just twice from 12 shots on target faced, while she’s prevented 2.2 goals with her stops. Her 83.3% save percentage is tied for second in the WSL along with Leicester City’s Janina Leitzig, behind Tullis-Joyce.
That’s a far cry from last season, where first-choice goalkeeper Manuela Zinsberger slightly underperformed, conceding 17 from 16.16 on target, while her save percentage was just 66%.
Losses in key games last season meant the Gunners were left behind by Man City and Chelsea in the title race. Settling on a reliable goalkeeper may just give Arsenal the solid grounding they need this time around.
Living in Graceland
Clinton, who began her professional career at Everton, signed for United in 2022. After loan spells at Bristol City and Tottenham last season, her breakout campaign came last year, and she is already being hailed by some as a generational talent. Her numbers this season suggest those assertions may not be wide of the mark.
She won the PFA Young Player of the Year for her performances with Spurs last term, and her name will surely be on the lips of her England team-mates Alessia Russo, Beth Mead and Leah Williamson as she showed Sarina Wiegman why she should be one of the first names on the team sheet over the international break.
United have struck gold with the 21-year-old and she is the first player to score in three of her first four WSL appearances for the club. Her three goals for the Red Devils is already just one fewer than she managed in her first 34 outings in the competition (0 in 14 for Everton, four in 20 for Tottenham).
Competition in this league is tough, but Clinton is one of five WSL players to score three goals this season, leading the charts along with Johanna Rytting Kaneryd of Chelsea, last year’s Golden Boot winner Khadija Shaw of Man City, Rachel Daly of Aston Villa and Brighton’s Kiko Seike.
Clinton is also a creator. Though she is yet to provide an assist, she has crafted six chances for her club-mates, with only Ella Toone having set up more among United’s squad (seven).
It is not just her impressive attacking statistics that make Clinton stand out. She leads the way in the WSL this season for duels (72), winning half of those (36), a figure that only four players can better in the competition, including Arsenal’s Caldentey (38). Clinton has also won 80% of her tackles (12/15).
United fans are hoping their young talent will ensure they get to the promised land and add to their first major domestic trophy from last season.
While Clinton has been phenomenal, Elizabeth Terland has netted twice from a team-high 1.76 xG, and the Norway international leads United’s squad for shots (14) and touches in the opposition’s box (23). Arsenal will need to be wary of her, too.
Arsenal will hope their own exciting prodigy will be able to come to the fore if selected. Finally off the mark in her maiden WSL campaign is Rosa Kafaji, who was hailed ahead of her move in the summer as one of the most exciting young talents in Europe. Scoring against West Ham last time out should give her the boost she needed in front of goal.
This match-up will be another early indication as to whether United can really challenge for the title as they did in 2022-23. At the beginning of the season, the Opta supercomputer gave Skinner’s side a 1.9% chance of winning the league. Despite their bright start, that likelihood has now dipped to 1.2% with Chelsea’s perfect record, but a win on Sunday could change that.
Arsenal are up against it given their early missteps. Only one team has won the WSL title after winning just one of their opening four matches, and that was Liverpool in 2014 (W1 D3).
Ahead of the season, Arsenal had a 16.1% chance of winning the title – that has now plummeted to just 1.8%, albeit it is still a better chance than United have, according to our model.
United and Arsenal will go at this one with everything, both wanting to keep pace with Chelsea and Man City, who lead the standings.
Will Arsenal’s renaissance continue, or will Skinner’s Red Devils have the metal to prove themselves as title candidates?
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