When Kamaru Usman steps into the cage on Saturday against Leon Edwards, he will be defending not just his UFC welterweight title, but also his status as mixed martial arts' top pound-for-pound talent.
Usman, 35, has never lost in the UFC, compiling a 15-0 run in the welterweight division since winning his season of the popular reality show The Ultimate Fighter.
After nine wins with the promotion, Usman was rewarded with a title shot against Tyron Woodley and manhandled the champion in dominating fashion, and since his first defence against Colby Covington in a competitive win, he is yet to be truly challenged.
Against an elite striker, he defeated Jorge Masvidal twice, including a stunning knockout in their second meeting.
When faced with an elite wrestler in Covington – who has arguably not lost a single round to anybody other than Usman since 2015 – the champion showed incredible toughness to outlast his outspoken opponent for a technical knockout in the first fight, before completely dominating the rematch to close that chapter.
Completing his championship resume is his knockout victory against Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion Gilbert Burns, who figured to be too good of a grappler to be manhandled by Usman, so he instead unveiled his new and improved jab to pummel the challenger to a third-round stoppage.
To this point of his championship reign, Usman has fought specialists, and has passed every test with flying colours – so what happens against a supreme jack of all trades like Edwards?
His British opponent is undefeated in the past seven years, with Edwards' last loss coming against the very champion he is looking to dethrone, going down to Usman via unanimous decision in December 2015.
Why should anything be different this time around? Well, while Usman was a 28-year-old imposing physical specimen in 2015, Edwards was a raw 24-year-old less than a year removed from a split-decision loss to journeyman Claudio Silva.
Usman had grown up as a wrestler, competing his entire life in the sport, culminating in a 44-1 record and a division two national championship as a senior in college before deciding to pivot to mixed martial arts.
Edwards grew up in Birmingham, after moving from Jamaica at nine years old, with no real grappling background, and at such an early stage in his career, he was unequipped to handle the smothering physical presence which Usman presented.
Seven years later, Edwards is a completely different fighter, with some of the sharpest kickboxing in the division, as well as a terrific pressure-grappling game.
Among active UFC welterweights, Edwards absorbs the second-fewest strikes per minute at 2.15, trailing only Michael Chiesa (0.79) who has since moved down to lightweight. He also finds himself in the top-10 for total grappling control time and takedowns landed.
It creates an interesting dynamic, as not only has Edwards become someone nearly impossible to control in the grappling side of things, but he is also an expert in point-fighting on the feet, while being extremely durable.
Despite this being his first title fight, Edwards has an average fight time of 15 minutes and 15 seconds – which is notable considering all non-main events only last 15 minutes. It shows he thrives in long, grinding fights, which he is sure to be faced with against Usman.
It poses the question: What is Usman's game plan?
Against another terrific controlling grappler – Covington – Usman was able to rely on his below-average striking and turn it into a kickboxing match since Covington's striking was also so weak.
Usman's striking has improved significantly, but he will not have an advantage in that area against Edwards, and while Usman is seemingly impossible to finish with strikes, Edwards has shown repeatedly that he is more than happy to point-fight his way to a decision.
So what happens if Usman's first few takedown attempts are unsuccessful, and this turns into a rangy kickboxing battle?
Does he continue to try and grapple and clinch, pushing Edwards against the cage, using his physicality, or does he try to test out his developing striking skills? If he opts for the latter, he could find himself down a round or two against a fighter who will not slow down, and who has been planning for this rematch for seven years.
Knockouts can be addicting, and after three consecutive eye-opening striking performances from Usman, who has been working with world-famous striking coach Trevor Wittman for two years now, his hubris in his standup abilities could prove to be his fatal flaw against an opponent so skilled in avoiding damage on the feet.
Usman is the deserved favourite, the current pound-for-pound king and the most dominant champion in the male divisions.
But to beat such an established minute-winner in what is almost assured to be a 25-minute decision, Usman must avoid his own ego and steer clear of the striking exchanges that have defined his evolution as a champion.
The Numbers Game: Ten Hag searches for much-needed turnaround at Villa Park
Manchester United are in desperate need of a Premier League win when they take on Aston Villa on Sunday.
The pressure has piled on Erik ten Hag after last week's sorry 3-0 loss at Tottenham.
United have lost three of their six league fixtures this season, winning just twice - against Southampton and Fulham - while they have lost their last two home matches in the top flight by an aggregate score of 6-0.
Their tally of seven points is their joint-fewest after six games of any Premier League season (two wins, one draw, three losses), having made identical starts under David Moyes in 2013-14 and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2020-21.
They now face another of the league's top teams when they take on Villa, who are fresh from their Champions League triumph over Bayern Munich and unbeaten in four league matches.
United, meanwhile, were forced to settle for a 3-3 draw at Porto in the Europa League, with Harry Maguire's late leveller doing little to ease the pressure on Ten Hag.
Here, we crunch the numbers and dive into the Opta insights ahead of Sunday's clash.
What's expected?
As far as home defeats in the Manchester rain go, last week's capitulation against Spurs was as bad as they get.
Ten Hag looked on miserably as United, who were reduced to 10 men when Bruno Fernandes was sent off late in the first half (that red card has now been rescinded), were carved open time and time again.
Spurs generated a huge expected goals (xG) figure of 4.59 on Sunday – the third-highest United have allowed a Premier League opponent since such records began in 2009. Only versus Arsenal in December 2017 (a 3-1 win) and against Man City in October 2011 (a memorable 6-1 loss at Old Trafford), have United given up a greater quality of chances in a Premier League match.
United also saw their opponents have nine big chances – only in five previous games in Premier League history has a team had more big chances in one game (Man City v Watford 2019-20, Man Utd v Sunderland 2012-13, Arsenal v Fulham 2018-19, Arsenal v Stoke City 2015-16, Man City v Crystal Palace 2017-18 – all 10).
Villa, on the other hand, have won both of their Champions League games without conceding a goal, and though Ipswich Town fought back to draw 2-2 with them last weekend, Unai Emery's team have enjoyed a fine start to the campaign.
They have picked up 13 points in their opening six Premier League matches this season (four wins, one draw, one defeat), their best start to a season since 2008-09 under Martin O’Neill (also 13 points).
As such, it's no surprise to see Opta's supercomputer makes Villa the favourites with a 42% win probability, albeit the gap is perhaps not as big as one might expect. United came out on top in 33.2% of the model's simulations, while the threat of a draw is 24.8%.
And it is worth noting that United have a great record against the Villans.
United have won 40 Premier League games against Villa, with only the Red Devils themselves beating an opponent more often in the competition's history (41 vs Everton).
Villa have won just one of their last 25 Premier League home games against Manchester United (eight draws, 16 losses), with that victory coming in Emery's first game in charge of the club in November 2022 (3-1).
Duran's hungry like a wolf
Forgive the quite abysmal Duran Duran reference, but Villa's fans are surely going to be pulling out the 1980s hits this season if their super-sub forward Jhon Duran continues to thrive as he is right now.
Duran scored a brilliant lob to see off Bayern in midweek, taking his tally of goals for the season to five in all competitions - all of those have come from the bench. His four league strikes have come from just 2.1 xG.
He has also netted four league goals in his last four league appearances at Villa Park, all as a substitute.
The 20-year-old averages a goal every 43 minutes at Villa Park in the competition, the second-best ratio by a player at a single venue (250+ minutes played there), behind Luis Suarez at Carrow Road (a goal every 38 minutes).
Duran is averaging a goal every 39 minutes this season in the league - in comparison, 10-goal Erling Haaland averages one every 54 minutes.
The Colombian has had just 10 shots in the league this term, so he has a 40% shot-conversion rate, the best rate in the competition of any player to score more than three times.
With such a quality talent in reserve, Villa's attack will surely be licking their lips if they can get at United's defence in the same way Spurs did.
Since Emery's first Premier League game in charge, only Man City (85), Liverpool (84) and Arsenal (81) have picked up more home points than Villa (74).
Among Villa managers to take charge of five or more home top-flight matches, only European Cup-winning boss Tony Barton (70%, won 37/53) has a better home win percentage than Emery (66%, won 23/35).
Leaking like Old Trafford's roof
United have actually kept successive away clean sheets in the league, winning 3-0 against Southampton and drawing 0-0 with Crystal Palace. They last kept three away clean sheets in a row in March 2021.
However, United have lost eight Premier League matches by a margin of three or more goals under Ten Hag. Since the start of 2022-23, the only current Premier League managers to suffer more 3+ goal defeats are Gary O'Neil and Sean Dyche (nine each).
United so often leave wide open spaces in midfield and huge gaps in defence, with defenders isolated in one-v-ones.
Despite conceding only eight goals, United have an xG against of 11.04 so far in the league this season – that is the fifth-worst total in the league, lower than only the three promoted clubs and Brentford.
That is despite United allowing just 74 shots, which ranks ninth in the top flight. However, United’s average per-shot xGA is 0.14, which is the second-worst in the league, after Brighton (0.17).
Ten Hag has to find a defensive formula that works if United are to get something out of this game.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Aston Villa - Ollie Watkins
While the limelight is on Duran, it is worth mentioning that Watkins has also scored four Premier League goals this term.
Watkins has been involved in 55 goals in 67 Premier League appearances under Emery for Aston Villa (36 goals, 19 assists), with only Erling Haaland (65) and Mohamed Salah (60) scoring or assisting more goals in that time. The former Brentford attacker is looking to score in four games in a row for the first time since April 2023.
Manchester United - Bruno Fernandes
United will be delighted Fernandes will be available for this game. He was set to miss just his eighth match for the club since his debut in February 2020, with the Red Devils winless in their last four (one draw, three losses) and failing to score in their last three without the Portuguese international in the team.
Fernandes has had 17 shots in the Premier League this season, but is yet to score.
That tally of shots is the most any player who is yet to score this season has had across the entirety of Europe's top five leagues this season.
Premier League MD6: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
Manchester United were the big losers of matchday six in the Premier League.
Tottenham piled the pressure on Erik ten Hag as they cruised to a 3-0 victory at Old Trafford, where Bruno Fernandes was sent off.
Spurs generated a huge expected goals (xG) figure of 4.59 on Sunday – the third-highest United have allowed a Premier League opponent since such records began in 2009.
Only versus Arsenal in December 2017 (a 3-1 win) and against Manchester City in October 2011 (a 6-1 loss at Old Trafford), have United given up a greater quality of chances in a Premier League match, so it is fair to say Spurs were deserving victors.
But, was that the case across the board this weekend? Who were the unlucky, and lucky, teams?
Lucky winners: Everton
Everton claimed their first victory of the season on Saturday, as Dwight McNeil scored a quickfire second-half double to propel the Toffees to a 2-1 comeback defeat of Crystal Palace.
Marc Guehi had nudged in from an early set-piece for Palace, but Oliver Glasner's team - who remain winless - were undone by some McNeil magic.
The former Burnley man curled a sumptuous long-range equaliser home in the 47th minute, with his strike coming from an xG value of just 0.02. McNeil then lashed home a second from close range, though those efforts were two of only eight shots the hosts managed at Goodison Park.
Indeed, Sean Dyche's team accumulated just 0.89 xG, so based on the quality of opportunities they created, it's fair to say they were fortunate to win, especially when factoring in Palace's 17 shots and 0.95 xG - essentially, it should probably have finished 1-1.
Lucky winners: Brentford
The Bees did not take all three points against West Ham, but they were arguably lucky to get a point from a match that finished 1-1.
Not that West Ham were by any means brilliant, but Brentford only mustered 0.37 xG throughout the contest on Saturday.
Indeed, they took the lead through Bryan Mbeumo's acrobatic attempt in the first minute. Brentford are the first team in Premier League history to score in the opening 60 seconds in three successive matches.
Tomas Soucek equalised for West Ham, who finished with 0.99 xG and had 18 shots to Brentford's eight, so the Hammers can consider themselves a bit unfortunate not to come away as 1-0 victors.
Unlucky loser: Nicolas Jackson
Jackson did not have a bad day by any means as Chelsea beat Brighton 4-2 at Stamford Bridge, as Cole Palmer became the first player in Premier League history to score four goals in a first half.
Yet Jackson should really have got in on the act. He had a shot cleared off the line in the second half, and overall accumulated 1.37 xG, which ranked as the third-highest total for any player across the Premier League over Saturday and Sunday's matches.
Jackson had five shots, getting two of those on target, but ultimately could not add his name to the scoresheet.
Premier League MD5: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
The Premier League delivered another weekend of thrills and spills as the 2024-25 season really clicks into gear.
Manchester City fought back late on to draw 2-2 with Arsenal in the headline fixture of the weekend on Sunday.
Chelsea and Liverpool each claimed 3-0 wins, while Manchester United were frustrated by Crystal Palace.
Meanwhile, the bottom six teams in the league remain without a win, which is a Premier League first five games into a season.
But, what did the underlying metrics suggest about the weekend's action?
Unlucky loser: Man Utd
The data has thrown up an interesting storyline this week - there was not really a particularly unlucky loser or lucky winner.
Instead, the results that were most skewed were draws, with United one of the teams that can consider themselves unfortunate not to have picked up all three points.
They mustered 1.7 expected goals (xG) against Palace at Selhurst Park, having 15 shots and missing all five of their big chances. Only Tottenham (seven) created more big chances in total this weekend.
United had six shots on target, but found their former goalkeeper Dean Henderson in fine form, with Palace's expected goals on target (xGoT) conceded coming in at 1.9, showing just how well their shot-stopper performed.
Lucky winner: Arsenal
Drawing right at the death may have felt like a defeat for Arsenal, but it is fair to say the pressure had been building for Man City before John Stones steered home in the eighth minute of stoppage time.
Mikel Arteta's team, reduced to 10 men following Leandro Trossard's second booking on the stroke of half-time, set out their stall to defend for the second half, and they very nearly got over the line.
Yet City, who had 77.2% of the ball, were dominant. They had 28 shots in the second half alone, the joint-highest ever by a team on record (from 2003-04) in a single half of Premier League football.
City finished with 2.18 xG, while the Gunners recorded just 0.67 - that was the third-lowest figure across the league this weekend.
Unlucky loser: Southampton
Two of those six teams at the bottom still waiting for a first league win are Southampton and Ipswich Town, who faced off at St Mary's on Saturday.
Southampton looked all set to wrap up their maiden victory of 2024-25 until, late on, Sam Morsy's deflected effort left the hosts stunned.
Only Spurs (3.52) registered a higher xG in the league this round than Southampton (2.49), who missed three of their four big chances.
That being said, Ipswich did have more shots (13 to 11) and recorded 1.69 xG, which suggests the Tractor Boys were at least worthy of one goal.
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