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Premier League MD13: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

It is fair to say the Reds, who accumulated 3.3 expected goals and had 18 shots, were more than worthy of their victory on Sunday, as City lost a fourth straight league match.

But was that the case across the board this weekend? Which teams were unlucky, and which sides got lucky, when comparing the underlying metrics to their actual results?

Here, we use Opta data to find out.

Unlucky losers: Everton

The away end at Old Trafford was mostly empty by the time full-time rolled around on Sunday, as Manchester United claimed their first league win under new boss Ruben Amorim in style, beating Everton 4-0.

But it's fair to say that Sean Dyche's team had started brightly, albeit without offering too much in the way of a threat. United's opening two goals came via a deflection and then a mistake from Jarrad Branthwaite, who was heavily linked with a move to the Red Devils in the summer.

While Everton cannot be considered unfortunate to lose, the metrics do suggest United were far more clinical than would have been anticipated based on the chances that came their way, as Joshua Zirkzee and Marcus Rashford both netted doubles.

United created just 1.0 xG, while having 11 shots, just three more than the Toffees. Amorim's side took all three of their big chances (defined as an opportunity from which a player would reasonably be expected to score). Everton had only 13 touches in United's box, though, as for all their bright play in the opening 30 minutes, they failed to make any real inroads.

Lucky winners: Newcastle United

Newcastle did not get all three points against Crystal Palace on Saturday, though they were just moments away from doing so. Daniel Munoz headed home late on after connecting with a cross from Marc Guehi, who had bundled in an own goal to give the Magpies the lead.

Yet Newcastle should really consider themselves fortunate to come away with even a point, considering the match metrics.

Eddie Howe claimed his team were in control, yet they failed to have a single shot on target, had only one attempt throughout the entire match and finished with 0.04 xG - by some distance the lowest of any Premier League team this weekend.

Palace's 1.8 xG was the fifth-highest total, on the other hand. The Eagles had 16 attempts, meaning their per-shot xG of 0.11 was higher than Newcastle's entire xG across the match.

Unlucky losers: Brighton

Brighton were left to rue some missed opportunities as they drew 1-1 with Southampton in Friday's south coast derby.

The Seagulls accumulated 1.7 xG and had 22 shots, which is at least four more than any other team in the division across the weekend's matches, while their 44 touches in the opposition box was also a league-high.

Yet they could not build on Kaoru Mitoma's opener, and were ultimately punished when Flynn Downes netted just before the hour.

Southampton created 1.0 xG, so it is not as though they were unworthy of at least a goal, but Fabian Hurzeler will no doubt believe his team should have been out of sight.

Premier League MD7: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

Manchester City and Arsenal both had to come from behind to beat Fulham and Southampton respectively at home, while there were eight goals scored as Brentford overcame Wolves 5-3, with six of those strikes coming in the first half in west London.

Liverpool kept themselves ahead at the summit thanks to a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace, while Manchester United stopped the rot by holding Aston Villa, albeit they have now tallied up their lowest points total after seven games of any Premier League season.

Leicester City, meanwhile, grabbed their first win of the campaign, while Anthony Gordon endured a miserable return to Goodison Park with Newcastle United. In the final fixture of the weekend, Brighton stunned Tottenham, forging a second-half comeback to win 3-2 at the Amex Stadium.

So, after all that, who were the unlucky, and lucky, teams based on the underlying metrics?

Lucky winners: Leicester City

Leicester finally got their first top-flight win of the season on the board, as they edged out Bournemouth 1-0 thanks to Facundo Buonanotte's excellent run and finish.

But, it's fair to say it was something of a smash-and-grab for Steve Cooper's team at the King Power Stadium. Leicester had just six shots, with only two of those hitting the target, and they tallied up just 0.79 expected goals (xG).

On the other hand, Bournemouth had 19 attempts, creating five big chances (a tally bettered only by Brentford's eight and West Ham's nine this week) and accumulating 2.16 xG.

Bournemouth only have themselves to blame for wasteful finishing – they got just two of their efforts on target – but the Cherries can still consider themselves unfortunate.

Unlucky losers: Newcastle

Determined to impress against his former club, Gordon fluffed his lines when his big moment arrived as Newcastle drew 0-0 with Everton on Saturday.

With James Tarkowski having conceded a penalty by recklessly pulling the shirt of Sandro Tonali, Gordon stepped up to the spot, but Jordan Pickford guessed the right way.

While Everton wanted a penalty of their own in the second half, the Toffees were largely second-best and that is backed up by the metrics. Even discounting Gordon's spot-kick, Newcastle finished with 1.26 xG and 14 shots. The hosts accumulated 0.67 xG and had eight attempts.

Lucky winners: Man City

It's not often that the champions are given a run for their money at home, but Fulham did just that.

Indeed, Fulham finished with 2.6 xG at the Etihad Stadium, the fourth-highest total across the league this weekend, while they created five big chances.

Pep Guardiola has said he is not concerned by Man City's unusually open defence, but he will want to see better from his team in that regard after the international break.

Going forward, City benefited from three excellent finishes - two from Mateo Kovacic and one from Jeremy Doku. Their 1.57 xG came from 20 shots, though they created only one big chance.

Premier League punishments for Man City or Chelsea may 'accelerate' Super League project

That is the view of finance expert Dan Plumley, who says the threat of Europe's elite clubs forming a breakaway competition is unlikely to ever go away.

Everton dropped into the Premier League's relegation zone after being deducted 10 points for a breach of the league's profit and sustainability rules earlier this month, with an independent commission ruling the Toffees exceeded the competition's maximum loss limit by £19.5million across four seasons between 2018 and 2022.

That penalty – the largest in the competition's history – has been fiercely protested by fans and has led to questions regarding other clubs' financial practices.

The Premier League is investigating City over 115 alleged breaches of the competition's rules, while Chelsea's finances are also being examined following allegations of secret payments made by companies belonging to former owner Roman Abramovich.

Some have suggested those clubs could face huge points deductions or even expulsion if found guilty, but Plumley believes that could push them back into the arms of the Super League.

"I don't think the European Super League will ever go away. I think we've seen that time and time again," Plumley told Stats Perform.

"It was the closest it's ever been to fruition in 2021, we know the backlash there but it's never off the table. You've seen the wider narrative in the European football landscape, and my take was that it would always come back around.

"It will be particularly dependent on what the Champions League looks like and the Champions League broadcasting revenues and reformat of that competition. So broadly speaking, I don't think it's off the table."

Both City and Chelsea were involved in the widely despised Super League project, which collapsed under pressure from fans, media and players in 2021.

Plumley is certain the Premier League will be in self-preservation mode when it comes to ruling on cases involving those clubs, saying: "I think the Premier League will be mindful of that.

"They know there is a lot of power held by those big clubs and their ownership structures and the people that are in that mix. They know that the threat of a Super League is still there.

"I do think that will be a factor in this, whether we like it or not. It will be there in the background of the considerations.

"There is that argument, in the same way as in the Champions League, that if the bigger clubs don't get what they want, or feel that they're being too heavily penalised, you can probably bet that a conversation about a European Super League will come back around.

"I think it would probably have come around anyway, but this kind of stuff might accelerate that. It might make it move quicker, but I don't think it was ever off the table."

Rashford form 'up there with the best I've ever been'

After scoring in his previous four matches, Rashford looked a man full of confidence as he ran Everton's defence ragged on Friday, playing a part in all three goals as United saw off the Toffees 3-1.

He set up Antony for the opener just four minutes in, and although Conor Coady levelled for Everton, dazzling work from Rashford down the left wing forced the Everton defender to turn into his own net to put United 2-1 ahead in the second half.

Rashford then capped his brilliant performance by dispatching a penalty late on after Alejandro Garnacho was felled by Ben Godfrey, becoming the first United player since Wayne Rooney in 2012 to score in seven consecutive home appearances in all competitions.

After leading United into the fourth round, Rashford believes he is near the peak of his powers, telling ITV: "This is probably up there with the best I've ever been.

"I feel good on the pitch and I'm getting in positions and areas to score goals. If they keep creating chances, I feel at the minute I'll keep scoring."

Manager Erik ten Hag is enjoying a strong start to his Old Trafford career, and his team remain fighting on all four fronts as he looks to end his first season with silverware.

Rashford says United have their sights firmly set on winning trophies, explaining: "That's the aim. That's why we do what we do and work so hard.

"We want to be in finals and play in the biggest games. Ultimately we want to win silverware and trophies, so hopefully this season we get the opportunity to do that.

"It's always nice to go through in cup games, and the FA Cup is definitely a special competition to play in.

"We're pleased that we can go through to the next round and more importantly, we keep momentum going and keep winning games."

In stark contrast to United's hunt for glory, success for Everton may be simply staying in the Premier League after a run of six defeats in seven in all competitions.

Manager Frank Lampard looked to be staring down the barrel after his team were hammered 4-1 by Brighton and Hove Albion on Tuesday, but an improved performance against United, albeit in defeat, has given the former Chelsea man hope he can turn things around.

Lampard cited Rashford as the key to the result, saying: "The players were very, very good. We had the better chances.

"Marcus Rashford was probably the difference between the two teams because top individual talent can do that to you."

With a huge league fixture with fellow strugglers Southampton next up for Everton, Lampard was asked whether he expected to be in the dug-out, to which he replied: "That's not under my control. It's not for me to focus on that.

"This league can change very quickly, and when you're in difficult times, you have to work really hard to get out of it and the picture can change. My focus is on this team and getting a result against Southampton."

Rashford: Current Man Utd form 'up there with the best I've ever been'

After scoring in his previous four matches, Rashford looked a man full of confidence as he ran Everton's defence ragged on Friday, playing a part in all three goals as United saw off the Toffees 3-1.

He set up Antony for the opener just four minutes in, and though Conor Coady levelled for Everton shortly after, dazzling work from Rashford down the left wing forced the Everton defender to turn into his own net to put United 2-1 ahead in the second half.

Rashford then capped his brilliant performance by thumping home a penalty late on after Alejandro Garnacho was felled by Ben Godfrey, becoming the first United player since Wayne Rooney in 2012 to score in seven consecutive home appearances in all competitions.