NFL

Super Bowl LVII: The matchups that could decide the destination of the Lombardi Trophy

By Sports Desk February 07, 2023

American football, its exponents are often fond of saying, is the ultimate team sport. With victory requiring 46 players spread across offense, defense and special teams to perform as close to their best as possible and frequently contingent on telepathic understanding between players executing blocking schemes, route concepts, pass coverages and pressure packages, it is tough to find a flaw in their argument.

In that sense, it is a contradiction that the quarterback position, being the most important for any team, commands so much of the attention. 

Most of the focus will be on the signal-callers in Super Bowl LVII, and rightly so. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are making history in becoming the first black quarterbacks to face off in a Super Bowl in the Kansas City Chiefs' mouth-watering clash with the Philadelphia Eagles and are both candidates to win the MVP award on Thursday at the NFL Honors ceremony in Phoenix.

While that pair of superstars will obviously have a mammoth part to play in deciding the winner of the Vince Lombardi Trophy, so often it is the game within the game in other areas that settles the NFL's showpiece.

And there are several such granular contests that figure to have a substantial bearing on the outcome in Arizona. Here, Stats Perform digs into the numbers in examining three matchups that could decide Super Bowl LVII.

Chris Jones vs. Isaac Seumalo and Jordan Mailata

When the Chiefs have needed him most in the postseason, Chris Jones has typically delivered. Jones is in the curious position of being established as one the premier defensive linemen in the NFL but still arguably being underrated.

While so much emphasis is placed on the offensive side of the Chiefs' Super Bowl LIV comeback four years ago, Jones was the man who ensured the San Francisco 49ers could not respond with the disruption he provided up front.

In the AFC Championship Game this season, it was Jones – deployed off the edge rather than his familiar interior spot – who easily beat Cincinnati Bengals right tackle Hakeem Adeniji and brought Joe Burrow down for the key fourth-quarter sack that ended a prospective game-winning drive for the Bengals and gave the ball back to Mahomes to lead the Chiefs to a decisive field goal.

Ranked third among all defensive linemen in his aggregate pass rush and run block win rate, Jones is a versatile force who has the talent to disrupt the best-laid plans of the Eagles.

The Eagles rank first in pass block win rate and second in run block win rate, encapsulating the well-rounded nature of their ultra impressive offensive line. However, there are weaknesses, with right guard Isaac Seumalo (61.5 per cent) well below the 70.5 per cent pass block win rate average for his position and left tackle Jordan Mailata (74.3 per cent) only just above the NFL baseline of 72.9 per cent for his spot.

As such, Jones will almost certainly see snaps on the interior where he lines up against Seumalo and others where he is one on one with Mailata. Their ability to hold their own against the best defensive player on the field will go a long way to determining whether the Eagles can justify their status as slight favourites.

Travis Kelce vs. Avonte Maddox

The trade of Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins ultimately did no damage to the Chiefs' status as one of the NFL's pre-eminent modern offenses, with Kansas City leading the league in Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE) on offense in 2022.

With Hill out of the picture, Kelce has unsurprisingly served as the focal point of the attack. Arguably no two players in the NFL enjoy the same level of symbiosis as Mahomes and Kelce consistently display, the future Hall of Fame tight end continuing to confound defenses with his route-running and ability to create yardage after the catch.

His domain while generating those headaches for defenders has primarily been the slot. 

Of Kelce's routes in the 2022 season, 300 have come from the slot, compared to 173 from the outside receiver position and 139 from a traditional tight end alignment. 

Kelce's burn rate, which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup on a play where he is targeted, is 75.0 per cent from the slot, the seventh-best among slots with at least 25 targets. In other words, he has created separation from his defender on three quarters of his slot targets in 2022.

Shutting down Kelce is a challenge few have had much success rising to, but the Eagles have a player who is statistically the best remedy to the threat he poses in slot cornerback Avonte Maddox.

Maddox's combined open percentage allowed across man and zone coverage of 18.1 per cent is the best of any cornerback in the NFL. By that measure, Maddox is the elite at the slot corner position, and he will need to prove it for the Eagles to have any hope of containing Kelce and, in turn, the Chiefs.

Jalen Hurts vs. Chiefs' front seven

Two weeks removed from winning the AFC Championship Game on a sprained ankle, there is the question of how much of a running threat Patrick Mahomes can be in a game where even a sporadic impact from him on the ground would make a significant difference to keeping the Eagles' defense off the front foot.

While he has recently dealt with a sprained shoulder, there will be no such doubts surrounding Hurts. The Eagles will run the ball, and Hurts will be integral to their game plan in doing so.

Hurts and the Eagles have, for the entirety of the season when the starting quarterback has been healthy, done an outstanding job of keeping defenses guessing with a diverse run game built around the zone-read and the read-option.

That presents a rather large problem for the Chiefs, whose primary weakness on defense is – you guessed it – against the run.

The Chiefs rank 17th in run defense EVE, with their performance in that metric dropping to 24th against the rush in neutral situations – when the offense could realistically either run or throw the ball. 

Philadelphia's offense thrives by creating doubt in the defense over what is coming in neutral situations, excelling at doing so to the point in the NFC Championship Game where San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner – who represents the gold standard at his position – was left stationary for key plays as indecision superseded his usually outstanding instincts.

Kansas City's linebackers are not on the same level as Warner, with starters Nick Bolton and Willie Gay Jr. both below the average in run defense win rate (17.7 per cent) for the position. 

Their fallibility in that regard is something the Eagles will endeavour to attack time and again in pursuit of their second Super Bowl. It will take an intelligent and likely more measured approach from a defensive front known for its aggressiveness and an exceptional display of awareness from the Kansas City linebackers for the Chiefs' defense to avoid a long and very painful evening on the biggest stage.

Related items

  • Howe taking plenty of positives despite frustrating Newcastle campaign Howe taking plenty of positives despite frustrating Newcastle campaign

    Eddie Howe was keen to look at the positives after Newcastle United secured seventh place in the Premier League on Sunday.

    Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimaraes were among the goalscorers as Newcastle won 4-2 at Brentford to finish their Premier League campaign.

    The victory ensured a seventh-place finish, and a Manchester City victory over Manchester United in next Saturday's FA Cup final will confirm Newcastle's place in next season's Europa Conference League.

    While this season did not quite live up to the heroics of last term, which saw the Magpies finish in the Champions League spots, Howe still feels it has been a successful campaign.

    "It summed up our season," Howe told BBC Sport. "We weren't totally secure at the back, but great credit to the players. They've done their job - now we wait and see.

    "We anticipated after losing against Manchester United that our control of the [European] situation had gone. It's never a nice situation, but whatever happens, happens.

    "We have issues to solve defensively. If we can do that, next season could be another season of really strong performances. This was a season that could have been better, but a good season overall.

    "We're a really united club. I think we're still moving forward, so there's a lot to be positive about."

  • Postecoglou will not settle until Tottenham hit his 'lofty ambitions' Postecoglou will not settle until Tottenham hit his 'lofty ambitions'

    Ange Postecoglou warned Tottenham he will not settle until the club hits the "lofty ambitions" targeted in his mind.

    Spurs were 3-0 victors over Sheffield United at Bramall Lane on Sunday, ending their Premier League season with a convincing win to finish fifth in the table.

    Postecoglou voiced his frustrations after Tuesday's 2-0 defeat to Manchester City ended their hopes of Champions League football next term.

    The Spurs head coach was far more relaxed after his side performed well in Sheffield, with Dejan Kulusevski twice on target, along with a goal for Pedro Porro against the relegated Blades.

    Yet Postecoglou insisted his ambitions remain high as the Australian attempts to take Tottenham to the next level.

    "Contrary to my general demeanour, I have loved every minute of it," former Celtic boss Postecoglou said of his first season in charge of Tottenham.

    "It is a great challenge in the Premier League and taking over a big club that didn't have a great year last year. You understand it is not going to run smoothly, but I have enjoyed the whole season.

    "I have got some lofty ambitions for the football club and until we reach that point I am not going to be smiling too much.

    "As I said, all any manager wants is maximum effort and I have got that from everyone involved. I have enjoyed it and looking forward to pushing on from here."

    Asked to summarise his first campaign in England's top league, Postecoglou continued: "It's been good, it's been eventful, it's had a bit of everything.

    "I am obviously not delighted with the way we finished the season but in fairness to the players and staff we have been in the top five all season, in a year where there was a fair bit of upheaval.

    "We finished eighth last year, player turnover, different football, different way of training, it is not easy to maintain a level when you are trying to do that.

    "Even in our tough periods this year we have still been competitive for the most part."

    Kulusevski scored his seventh and eighth Premier League goals of the season (36 outings), more than he managed in his first two league campaigns with Tottenham combined (seven across 48 games).

    Only in the 2019-20 season with Parma has the Sweden winger scored more times in a league season (10 in Serie A), and Postecoglou hailed Kulusevski's returns.

    He added: "I thought Deki was good. He's worked awfully hard this year without a lot of reward in the front third.

    "We thought playing him through middle today would help us with his mobility and ability to run in behind. He did well.

    "He always works hard but it's that sort of final third where we need him to get rewards and he got them today so he did well."

  • Walker: Man City driven on by creating history Walker: Man City driven on by creating history

    Kyle Walker believes Manchester City were spurred on by creating history to a fourth straight Premier League title.

    A Phil Foden double and a Rodri strike saw City beat West Ham 3-1 on Sunday as they claimed a fourth consecutive Premier League crown, finishing two points above Arsenal.

    In doing so, City became the first team ever to win England's top division four times in a row, and Walker feels that was one of the key motivations behind the team finishing top of the Premier League pile yet again.

    When asked if creating history had driven him and his team-mates on, Walker told Sky Sports: "I think so, I think so. We went out of the Champions League, got into the FA Cup final, but to do this, make it four in a row, it made it something special.

    "It has been spoken about all year what we can achieve and the history we can make. But it is about the finer details. It was down to just one game and that game was West Ham United. We get past that then we make history, but more importantly we claim the Premier League again.

    "It is a very, very tough league to win. I looked at the Italian league, German league, Spanish league, the winners are 10, 15 points clear. Fair play to Arsenal and Liverpool for what they have done throughout the season, making sure they push us right to the limit."

    Walker turns 34 later this month but has shown little signs of slowing down, playing an integral role again this season on his way to a sixth Premier League title of his decorated career.

    Walker still feels he is capable of playing at the top level, saying: "I feel young. I don't know if that is a good thing or a bad thing. I feel young, I feel great, I still have my pace.

    "I come to training every day wanting to learn. Once that goes then it is probably time to pack up, but this group of lads keeps you on your toes. They keep on you to keep improving every day."

    Walker has been City's captain this season, making his 300th appearance for the club in the title-securing win over West Ham.

    The defender was keen to emphasise that it has been a collective effort this term, though, explaining: "I am the man at the front and I wear the armband, but I don't put myself above anyone else. We are a team.

    "There are four captains including myself, and we all pull our weight. I am just the man they've picked to wear the armband which I am very grateful for. To be able to lift the trophy in this scenario, the four in a row, it is a dream come true."

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.