The Boston Celtics will hit the road on Tuesday to take on the Milwaukee Bucks in a potential Eastern Conference Finals preview.
In a tantalising battle between the top two teams in the East, it will also be a clash between two of the NBA's top-four defenses this season.
The Celtics will head into the contest boasting the rare statistical profile of the fourth-best defense (conceding 110.5 points per 100 possessions) and the third-best offense (116.8 points per 100 possessions).
Meanwhile, the Bucks have relied primarily on their second-ranked defense (109.7), grinding out wins despite their offense ranking only 21st (112.6).
While their offensive production has differed, the way these two sides approach the game is very similar. They are two of the most perimeter-centric offenses in the league, both top-five in average three-point attempts, while both also sit bottom-five in average points in the paint.
It makes sense that, because both of these teams so heavily value the three-point shot, they also make just as much of an effort to disrupt that area for their opponents. They are both top-six in limiting opponent three-point makes, presenting an interesting conundrum.
Two teams who want to bomb away from deep, who also know exactly how to run their opposition off the three-point line, forcing them to take a step inside and attempt less valuable two-point jump shots, or daring them to finish at the basket against elite rim protectors.
They are also the best two teams in the league at limiting opposition free throw attempts, meaning that even when they force opponents inside into traffic, they are challenging without fouling.
But the wrench in that equation is Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo, who lives in the paint, contributes nearly half (19.0) of his side's 45.4 points in the paint per game, and leads the league in free throw attempts (13.8 per game).
It puts the opposition in a quandary – do you follow the scouting report and try to limit the Bucks' three-point shooting, potentially giving Antetokounmpo the free rein to dominate inside, or do you go all-in on stopping the former back-to-back MVP and force somebody else to hit shots?
That is not to say the Celtics' stars are incapable of getting into the paint – with both Jaylen Brown (11.7 paint points per game) and Jayson Tatum (11.5) in the top-20 in the league – but Brown is the primary slasher of the pair, and will miss this game with a broken bone in his face.
Brown will be joined on the sideline by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, meaning Tatum will not just be the Celtics' most important offensive player, he will also be their top perimeter defender.
The Celtics are struggling in the health department right now, while the Bucks are trending in the right direction. Both Milwaukee All-Stars – Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday – will play, and All-NBA wing Khris Middleton has games of 22 points and 24 points in his past three after recovering from his own serious injury.
PIVOTAL PERFORMERS
Boston Celtics – Robert Williams III
Smart will be missed, but there is arguably not a more valuable defender to the Celtics than Robert Williams III – especially against an interior force like Antetokounmpo.
The 25-year-old came from out of nowhere to force his way onto the NBA All-Defensive Second Team last season, finishing fourth in the league for blocks per game (2.2). That block figure has come back down to earth this season – still a team-leading 1.2 per game – but, simply put, the Celtics are a force defensively with him on the court.
During his minutes, the Celtics concede only 104.8 points per 100 possessions – the fourth-best figure for any player averaging at least 20 minutes per game – which is over five points better than the league's best defense this season (Cleveland Cavaliers, 108.9).
Sinner and Swiatek favourites for French Open success
Jannik Sinner and Iga Swiatek are the favourites in their respective draws to triumph at the French Open.
That is according to Stats Perform's Win Probability Model, which saw Swiatek regain her Roland-Garros crown in 20 per cent of simulations, ahead of nearest challenger Elena Rybakina (nine per cent).
The Pole is aiming to become the third player in the Open Era to win the women's singles title at Roland-Garros for three consecutive years, after Monica Seles (1990-92) and Justine Henin (2005-07).
Swiatek claimed a third women’s singles title at Roland-Garros from five appearances in the main draw at the event. In the Open Era, only Margaret Court (three out of four, 75 per cent) holds a better title win rate from main draws entered at the tournament.
In the men's competition, Sinner is the narrow favourite in Stats Perform's predictions, with his 13 per cent chance just clear of Novak Djokovic's 10.
Sinner has the highest winning percentage of any player so far in 2024 (93.3 per cent, 28-2), though third-favourite Carlos Alcaraz still has a six per cent likelihood of winning in Paris.
World number three Alcaraz has yet to reach a French Open final, but is the youngest player in the Open Era to reach the round of 16 at seven consecutive majors.
Meanwhile, Djokovic is out to overtake Court's record of 24 majors and become the outright leader for grand slam titles across men's and women's singles events.
Aged 36 years and 20 days, Djokovic became the oldest winner of the men's singles at Roland-Garros in the Open Era when he triumphed last year.
Celtics thankful to Holiday's 'big-time play' after taking 3-0 lead against Pacers
The Boston Celtics were indebted to Jrue Holiday after they moved one win away from reaching the NBA Finals with Saturday's victory against the Indiana Pacers.
Holiday converted a three-point play with 38 seconds remaining, then made a game-saving steal as the Celtics overcame an 18-point deficit to beat the Pacers 114-111 for a 3-0 Eastern Conference finals lead.
Indiana's Andrew Nembhard seemed set to claw the Pacers back into Game 3 late on, yet Holiday stepped across for a "trademark steal" to guide his side over the line.
"That's a trademark steal that he always gets with the inside hand," Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said of Holiday.
"He gets that a lot usually when a guy is coming down the sideline, but he got it in transition. He made a big-time play."
As Nembhard looked to cut inside the court, Holiday suggested he always knew what was coming.
"He's a right-hand driver," the Celtics hero said after the game, "and he'd been very, very aggressive all night."
Nembhard managed 32 points and nine assists but even that brilliance was not enough to outsmart one of NBA's best defensive players.
"I was trying to get a shot up," said Nembhard. "He got in front of me. I lost the ball, slipped. Turnover."
Jayson Tatum impressed for Boston with 36 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists and no turnovers in 44 minutes, yet he put all the focus on the match-winning Holiday.
"I mean, can't speak highly enough about Jrue," said Tatum. "The ultimate teammate competitor, obviously a champion, wasn't at shootaround today, he was sick.
"Dealing with chills and stuff like that. And we've all been there, how tough that is, to fight through it, and for him to come out there and lay it all on the line for us, make the game-winning play essentially, especially on the defensive end.
"Jrue is just a big-time player, and he made a tremendous play."
The Celtics can clinch their second NBA Finals appearance in three seasons with a win in Game 4 on Monday in Indianapolis.
NBA: Celtics erase 18-point deficit for 3-0 lead in East finals
Jrue Holiday converted a three-point play with 38 seconds remaining, then made a game-saving steal as the Boston Celtics overcame an 18-point deficit to beat the Indiana Pacers 114-111 for a 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference finals on Saturday night.
The Celtics can clinch their second NBA Finals appearance in three seasons with a win in Game 4 on Monday in Indianapolis.
Jayson Tatum matched his playoff career high with 36 points to go with 10 rebounds and eight assists. Jaylen Brown added 24 points and Al Horford had 23 points with seven 3-pointers to help Boston win its sixth straight playoff game and improve to 5-0 on the road.
Andrew Nembhard scored a career-high 32 points, but Holiday, who was questionable before the game due to an illness, stole the ball from him with 3.3 seconds remaining and Indiana down 112-111.
Indiana had a chance to tie the game but Aaron Nesmith's 3-pointer was off the mark.
T.J. McConnell had 23 points, nine rebounds and six assists, while Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam added 22 points apiece for the Pacers, who played without All-NBA guard Tyrese Haliburton (left hamstring).
His presence was sorely missed as the Celtics closed the game on a 13-2 run to send Indiana to its first loss in seven postseason home games.
The teams combined to make six 3s in the fourth quarter, with Horford’s seventh of the night drawing Boston within 111-109 with 1:12 to play. Holiday then converted his 3-point play to give the Celtics their first lead since early in the second quarter.
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