Predicting Europe's big five leagues: what Stats Perform's supercomputer says

By Sports Desk March 30, 2023

With the last international window of the season over, domestic club campaigns now enter the final straight.

Everything is still to be decided – technically speaking. Title races, European qualification, relegation – all will come to a head over the next two months.

Of course, there are a few outcomes that already look like foregone conclusions, but there's still much to play for in each of the top five leagues.

With club football returning over the next few days, Stats Perform's Artificial Intelligence team have crunched the numbers using their supercomputer to predict the outcome of each league.

How's the outlook for your team?

Premier League

England is the scene of potentially most compelling title race among the top five leagues this season.

Arsenal may have an eight-point lead at the summit, but Manchester City still have a game in hand. As such, the Gunners' chances of winning a first league title since 2004 are 56.2 per cent, perhaps smaller than many might have expected.

That comes down in part to the statistical value attached to City's historic results, particularly over the past few years during their Premier League domination, whereas Arsenal haven't come close to that level of success over the same period.

Therefore, the title race still looks tight.

A little further back, Manchester United (74.5 per cent) are near-certainties to finish third, while the race for fourth promises to be engrossing – Tottenham (19.3 per cent), Newcastle United (29.1 per cent) and Liverpool (24.5 per cent) look set to tussle it out, with Brighton and Hove Albion (10.7 per cent) considered rank outsiders.

At the bottom, Southampton's 41.6 per cent likelihood of finishing 20th suggests they've a huge battle on their hands, but the supercomputer reckons West Ham and Leicester City have enough to pull themselves clear of the drop zone.

The signs are that two of Bournemouth, Everton and Nottingham Forest will join Saints in the Championship.

 

Bundesliga

Germany's top flight may come to rival the Premier League's title race. Ahead of the weekend's Klassiker between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, BVB are a point clear.

Yet, Dortmund's probability of finishing top is just 22.4 per cent compared to Bayern's 76.4. Again, it largely comes down to their historic results and Die Roten's dominance suggesting they'll eventually get the job done.

But it's fair to say Bayern's decision makers aren't so confident given their brutal choice to sack Julian Nagelsmann on Friday, replacing him with former Dortmund coach Thomas Tuchel.

Union Berlin aren't out of it given they are only five points behind Dortmund, though this is obviously uncharted territory for them, hence the 0.9 per cent chance of winning their first top-flight title since 1923.

Third looks the best bet for them (40.3 per cent), while RB Leipzig are the most likely to fill out the top four (37.2 per cent).

It's even tighter in the relegation scrap. Only seven points separate 18th from 13th, so even rock-bottom Stuttgart are given a reasonable chance of finishing 14th (10.6 per cent) or 15th (15.2 per cent).

 

LaLiga

Following Barcelona's dramatic 2-1 win in El Clasico before the international break, LaLiga looks done and dusted at the top with the Blaugrana 12 points clear.

The supercomputer also reckons Atletico Madrid are nearly guaranteed third (80.3 per cent), leaving what is effectively a two-horse race for fourth.

Real Sociedad have fourth at the moment and are 43.7 per cent likely to finish there, though Real Betis (36.7 per cent) aim to push them all the way.

At the other end, Elche are given no more than a 0.1 per cent chance of getting out of the bottom three after taking just 13 points from 26 games.

Otherwise, relegation is difficult to call. Almeria in 19th are only six points behind Real Mallorca in 11th, meaning there are a host of clubs who could yet get dragged into a fight for their lives.

There are two particularly big names among those potentially in trouble. Valencia are in the bottom three and have a 21.9 per cent chance of being relegated, while Sevilla – who are on their third coach of the season after sacking Jorge Sampaoli – are only two points clear of safety.

The computer says Man Utd's next Europa League opponents only have a 5.8 per cent probability of going down, however.

 

Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain seemingly have little to worry about in Ligue 1, with the supercomputer calculating their title chances at 98 per cent.

The tiny hint of doubt gives Marseille (1.8 per cent) and Lens (0.2 per cent) a bit of hope – but even then, it's presumably nothing more than a pipe dream.

There is a similar degree of certainty at the bottom, where four teams will be relegated ahead of the league's size being reduced to 18 clubs next term.

Angers, with 10 points from 28 games, cannot get out of the bottom four according to the calculations, and the other three positions are currently taken up by Ajaccio, Troyes and Auxerre.

Brest and Strasbourg aren't out of the woods yet either, though the supercomputer believes those in the relegation zone are the ones most likely to drop into Ligue 2.

 

Serie A

If there's one league in Europe that's got a foregone conclusion at the top, it's Serie A.

Napoli have more than a 99.9 per cent chance of winning a first Scudetto since 1990, with the unrelenting Partenopei a whopping 19 points clear of second already.

The race for Champions League qualification promises to be a little more tense.

Eleven points is the gap between Lazio in second and Juventus in seventh. While the Bianconeri are very much outsiders, the other five teams have at least a 15 per cent chance of finishing in the top four.

Lazio, Inter and Milan appear to be the most likely to take those spots, though Roma and Atalanta will fancy their chances of putting a cat among the pigeons.

In the relegation fight, there's a rather clearer picture.

Cremonese and Sampdoria look doomed, while Hellas Verona in 18th are five points adrift of safety, giving them just an 18.8 per cent probability of avoiding relegation.

 

Related items

  • Hayes concedes title race is over as Chelsea suffer dramatic Liverpool defeat Hayes concedes title race is over as Chelsea suffer dramatic Liverpool defeat

    It has been a difficult week for Chelsea and their boss Emma Hayes.

    After seeing their Champions League dreams dashed by holders Barcelona on Saturday, they had no margin for error when they travelled to Liverpool in the Women's Super League on Wednesday.

    Six points behind Manchester City with two games in hand but an inferior goal difference, the Blues needed three points to stop Hayes' final season in charge from totalling unravelling.  

    But there was to be no respite for the Blues, who were at one point tipped for a quadruple but have been stuck in a downward spiral since losing Sam Kerr to an anterior cruciate ligament injury during the winter break.

    Matt Beard's Liverpool put on a tremendous display to win 4-3, with Gemma Bonner scoring a stoppage-time equaliser to leave Hayes certain the title is out of reach.

    "I think the title is done," she said after Wednesday's game. 

    "Of course mathematically it's not, but I think the title is done. Our job between now and the end of the season is to keep pushing until the end, but I think it will be very difficult.

    "This team has done a tremendous job in my time here to push for titles. 

    "I don’t know if we have ever conceded four goals in a half before. Three from set pieces is just unforgivable. But I'm going to credit Liverpool."

    Chelsea now need an almighty collapse from City, who may only require three points from their remaining two matches to seal the title, if their goal difference advantage holds firm.

    Hayes believes fighting on multiple fronts has not helped her team, adding: "We looked exhausted but I don't want to make excuses. 

    "I want to remind our fans how much success we have brought over the years. It's just not to be this year."

    Next up, Chelsea face relegated Bristol City in their final home game before Hayes departs to take the United States job, with City taking on Arsenal in Sunday's headline fixture. 

  • Sancho outshines Mbappe as Dortmund seize initiative against PSG Sancho outshines Mbappe as Dortmund seize initiative against PSG

    Manchester United loanee Jadon Sancho issued a reminder of his star quality as Borussia Dortmund beat Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final tie on Wednesday.

    Niclas Fullkrug scored the winner after 36 minutes, taking in Nico Schlotterbeck's floated pass before driving a low shot beyond PSG goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma.

    Fullkrug has now been involved in six Champions League goals this season (three goals, three assists), the joint-most by a German player in their debut campaign in the competition, alongside BVB team-mate Marco Reus in 2012-13 (four goals, two assists).

    The star of the show, however, was undoubtedly Sancho.

    He tormented Nuno Mendes throughout a lively performance, creating three chances for his team-mates – a game-high tally alongside Julian Brandt, Kylian Mbappe and Achraf Hakimi.

    Sancho had completed seven dribbles by the halfway point, more than he managed in any full game for the Red Devils.

    By full-time, that number had crept up to 12, the most by any player in a Champions League semi-final since Lionel Messi completed 16 for Barcelona against United in April 2008, and the most on record by an Englishman at any stage of the competition (since 2003-04).

    Sancho even outshone Mbappe, who struck the far post with a curling effort early in the second half but was limited to just three shots totalling 0.17 expected goals (xG). 

    PSG did have their chances, though, with their total of 14 shots their most without scoring in any Champions League game since the second leg of their 2020-21 semi-final against Manchester City (also 14), when they were beaten 2-0 and eliminated from the competition. 

    Dortmund are now unbeaten in 11 straight Champions League home games, winning seven and drawing four. 

    It's their longest ever such streak at Signal Iduna Park, and they have also won four straight knockout games on their own turf for the first time in their Champions League history.

    While Dortmund have a valuable lead to protect in Paris next Tuesday, Edin Terzic will be expecting a strong reaction from PSG.

    The Ligue 1 champions have progressed from two of their last four Champions League knockout ties when losing the first leg, with the first of those successes coming against Dortmund in the last 16 in 2019-20 (1-2 away, 2-0 at home).  

  • Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Paris Saint-Germain: Fullkrug hands hosts first-leg win Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Paris Saint-Germain: Fullkrug hands hosts first-leg win

    Niclas Fullkrug fired home a first-half winner as Borussia Dortmund claimed a 1-0 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final tie in Germany.

    Nico Schlotterbeck floated a pass into Fullkrug's path and the Germany international brought the ball under his spell with a wonderful touch before drilling a low shot past Gianluigi Donnarumma in the 36th minute.

    PSG, on the back foot for much of the first half, improved after the break and struck the woodwork twice in a matter of moments just after the restart.

    Kylian Mbappe curled an effort against the right-hand post before Achraf Hakimi scuffed a shot against the other upright on the rebound as Edin Terzic's side escaped with a first-leg lead.

    The teams will meet again at the Parc des Princes next Tuesday, with the winners of the tie facing either Bayern Munich or Real Madrid – who drew 2-2 in their first leg on Tuesday – in the final at Wembley Stadium.

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.