Italy may have been absent from Friday's 2022 World Cup draw, but they can at least provide recent examples of the pitfalls of forecasting the finals this far in advance.
At South Africa 2010, as defending champions, the Azzurri would have expected to top an apparently kind group, drawn alongside New Zealand, Paraguay and Slovakia. Remarkably, Marcello Lippi's side finished bottom.
Four years later, at Brazil 2014, Italy entered the 'group of death' and fared little better, coming in third ahead of fellow big-name failures England – but predicted Group D whipping boys Costa Rica sensationally topped the standings.
It is surely too early then to form firm opinions, but where is the fun in taking such a measured approach on draw day, rather than plotting potential paths to the Lusail final?
France fans will likely be doing the latter this weekend, with Les Bleus having been handed perhaps the pick of the groups, starting against one of the United Arab Emirates, Australia or Peru before facing Denmark and then Tunisia.
Of course, France are the defending champions and four of the past five holders have bowed out at the group stage, including the most recent three in a row, while Brazil in 1962 were the last team to win consecutive tournaments.
But France's title-winning campaign in 2018 saw them grouped with Australia, Peru and Denmark, giving Didier Deschamps' men some confidence they can negotiate this task, too. In the last 16, they would then face a team from Argentina's group – Lionel Messi and Co. having provided France's second-round opponents in Russia.
Brazil might also be suffering from deja vu, again meeting Serbia and Switzerland in the group stage, with Cameroon taking Costa Rica's place this time around. Like France, the Selecao topped their pool four years ago – as every eventual champion since 1986 has.
Crucially for both, in coming up against Denmark and Switzerland, they avoided Germany – surely the biggest threat in pot two. Rejuvenated under Hansi Flick, the 2014 champions provide a complication for both Spain and Belgium.
Germany followed Spain into Group E, where Japan might pose enough problems to ensure a top-two finish is no guarantee. Or perhaps Costa Rica could spring another surprise, as they will be the fourth team in the pool should they get past New Zealand in their inter-confederation play-off.
Bookmakers downgraded Germany's hopes in the minutes after the draw, but they were always likely to face elite opposition given their place in pot two. Spain were not.
And Belgium's kind group – Canada, Morocco and Croatia are their opponents – matters little given they will likely face either Spain or Germany in the second round.
England, on the face of it, have a simpler path to the quarter-finals. The Three Lions should be able to advance through a group that also includes Iran, the United States and Scotland, Ukraine or Wales – although those make for some tasty fixtures.
In the last 16, following a good period of rest, England would face opponents from Qatar's group, which was surely the result every pot one team hoped for.
Gareth Southgate would likely welcome a meeting with Qatar, but the host nation – the only debutants in 2022 – will do well to make it that far, with Ecuador, Senegal and the Netherlands each surely fancying their chances in a very even group.
South Africa in 2010 are the only hosts not to have progressed from the first round in World Cup history, but they could soon have company.
WINNERS
France – The defending champions face familiar opponents in the group and potentially in the second round, too, while they are in the same quarter of the draw as Qatar's pool and will avoid Spain, Germany, Belgium and Brazil early on.
Brazil – The tournament favourites should have no problems in the group so can settle into their campaign nicely while possible heavyweight opponents face titanic early tests.
England – The Euro 2020 finalists have been given thorough examinations by the USA, Scotland and Wales in past tournaments, but Southgate's side should advance and will back themselves again in the knockout stage.
LOSERS
Spain – La Roja have not won their World Cup opener since 2006 but simply cannot afford a slow start this time, with Germany and perhaps Belgium to play after that. From pot one, Spain's draw could not have been much worse.
Belgium – The odds for Roberto Martinez's men to go all the way drifted on Friday, as initial optimism around their group-stage draw was followed by greater inspection of a daunting path to the final.
Qatar – The hosts may be the Asian champions, but only Germany were perhaps feared more than the Netherlands from pot two, while Senegal in pot three are the African champions and have a world class operator in the form of Sadio Mane.
Liverpool confirm Slot as Klopp's replacement
Liverpool have confirmed Arne Slot will succeed Jurgen Klopp as their new head coach.
Klopp's glorious nine-year spell with the Reds came to an end on Sunday with a 2-0 victory over Wolves, after which the German sang Slot's name to the Anfield crowd.
Slot had previously confirmed he would be taking over, and Liverpool have now formally announced the news.
The Dutchman will officially take charge from June 1, subject to receiving a work permit.
Slot leaves the Netherlands after three highly successful seasons with Feyenoord, during which he led them to the league title in 2023 and was named Eredivisie Manager of the Year on two occasions.
More recently, he led the Rotterdam giants to KNVB Cup glory in April, overseeing a 1-0 win over NEC Nijmegen in the final of that competition.
Feyenoord rounded off their Eredivisie campaign with a 4-0 victory over neighbours Excelsior on Sunday, as they finished second, seven points adrift of runaway champions PSV.
Onana admits he is willing to take Man Utd criticism 'bullets'
Andre Onana says he is willing to take criticism "bullets" after a poor Premier League campaign for Manchester United.
The Red Devils recorded their lowest-ever finish in eighth place, with the manager and players coming under scrutiny for some of their performances.
One of those singled out was Onana, who joined United from Inter at the start of the season, after an error-strewn start to his life at the club.
Asked how he deals with the criticism coming from fans, pundits, and former players, Onana said it does not bother him.
"For me, I don't pay attention to it. I have come into this team to take bullets because we are under construction – at the moment, we are not the best," he told the Overlap.
"We have other teams who are doing better than us, and we have to be honest and recognise that. If things and when things are going wrong, don't go for the youngest player – I'm here to take it, Bruno [Fernandes], Casemiro and Harry [Maguire] are there, and we are used to it.
"When it's people who were sitting where I'm sitting, who won everything, sometimes it's bizarre – we are in the same boat. We try to follow your thing and what you did. For me, I don't mind, but other people may be affected. For me, to be honest, it's just a part of the game."
United conceded 84 goals in all competitions this season, their worst-ever tally in a single campaign.
Erik ten Hag’s side also missed out on a European place due to their league finish but have another opportunity to get one if they beat Manchester City in the FA Cup final on Saturday.
Onana is optimistic though as he views the season as a learning curve.
"I'm happy because we have good people around us, especially at this club, who helped me so much," he added.
"That's why I'm still smiling - because the first six months were difficult, but at the same time, it was a good moment to learn.
"After playing the final of the Champions League and the final of the Europa League, you think you are the best – life gives you an opportunity to learn and says, 'You are never too big'.
"You can have a good season, next year you have a bad season, but the year after an amazing season. The ups and downs and being here, you have to deal with them – especially being a goalkeeper."
Messi to lead Argentina in Copa America, Dybala left out of squad
Argentina are aiming to defend their Copa America title as Lionel Scaloni names a 29-man provisional squad ahead of the tournament.
Lionel Messi will once again captain the side, with Scaloni also choosing the experienced Angel Di Maria and Nicolas Otamendi in the squad.
Enzo Fernandez is called up, despite missing the end of Chelsea's Premier League season due to having groin surgery in April. Lisandro Martinez is also recalled despite only recently returning from injury.
A surprise omission to the squad is Roma’s Paulo Dybala, who has scored 16 goals across all competitions this season and earned three player of the month awards in an impressive season.
However, the forward could not force his way back into the squad after being limited to just two substitute appearances for Argentina in 2023.
Scaloni will have to narrow his squad down to 26 men, meaning three will drop out of the squad by June 12 before their Copa America opener against Canada on June 20.
Before the tournament, Argentina will play friendlies against Ecuador and Guatemala.
Argentina squad
Goalkeepers: Franco Armani (River Plate), Geronimo Rulli (Ajax), Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa)
Defenders: Gonzalo Montiel (Nottingham Forest), Nahuel Molina (Atletico Madrid), Leonardo Balerdi (Marseille), Cristian Romero (Tottenham), German Pezzella (Real Betis), Lucas M. Quarta (Fiorentina), Nicolas Otamendi (Benfica), Lisandro Martinez (Manchester United), Marcos Acuna (Sevilla), Nicolas Tagliafico (Lyon), Valentin Barco (Brighton
Midfielders: Guido Rodriguez (Real Betis), Leandro Paredes (Roma), Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool), Rodrigo De Paul (Atletico Madrid), Exequiel Palacios (Bayer Leverkusen), Enzo Fernandez (Chelsea), Giovani Lo Celso (Tottenham)
Forwards: Angel Di Maria (Benfica), Valentin Carboni (Monza), Lionel Messi (Inter Miami), Angel Correa (Atletico Madrid), Alejandro Garnacho (Manchester United), Nicolas Gonzalez (Fiorentina), Lautaro Martinez (Inter), Julian Alvarez (Manchester City)
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