LaLiga is arguably harder to call than ever before heading into 2021-22 – Barcelona no longer have Lionel Messi to guide the way and Real Madrid have seen significant upheaval, so surely the smart money is on defending champions Atletico Madrid?
Diego Simeone's men won the title in 2020-21 after watching Barca and Madrid trade success for seven years and look in good shape given they've not lost any major players. But can you really write off the 'big two'?
Well, you shouldn't, according to Stats Perform predictions.
The Stats Perform League Prediction Model, created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, has analysed the division ahead of the new season to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The season is then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Without further ado, let's look at what could occur over the 2021-22 LaLiga season.
ANCELOTTI DELIVERS THE GOODS
Carlo Ancelotti's back at the Santiago Bernabeu, and so – it seems – will the Spanish title. The Stats Perform model calculates Madrid have a 42.3 per cent chance of taking the crown back from their local rivals.
In fact, if the model proves accurate, Atletico may not even finish in the top two, as their 18.7 per cent chance is a fair bit smaller than Barca's 30.4 per cent likelihood of winning LaLiga.
However, it's worth pointing out that, because the model is based on historical data points and results, the Barcelona that appears here is one that has had Messi in the team for past 17 years.
It's entirely reasonable to expect Barca to see a significant drop-off given they'll no longer have the greatest player of all time on their books – as such, a 30.4 per cent chance of winning the title might actually be quite generous.
THE BIG FOUR?
The 2020-21 season was the tightest LaLiga title fight in recent memory. Although Atletico were 11 points clear at one point, with five matches left there were just three points separating first from fourth.
In that respect, it was the closest title race LaLiga had ever seen in a 20-team campaign (1987-1995, 1997-present) and the least predictable since 2006-07, when Madrid, Barca and Sevilla could all win the league on the final day of the season.
Sevilla's challenge ultimately faded before that stage in 2020-21 but they've managed to keep Julen Lopetegui, their coach, and their squad is largely unaltered for the time being.
The prediction model makes them fourth favourites for the title (6.8 per cent) and far better placed to take the final Champions League spot (69.4 per cent) for the third year in a row than their likeliest challengers Villarreal (36.2 per cent).
There was a 15-point gap between fourth and fifth last season – this is the closest to a 'big four' Spain has had in years.
FOUR TIPPED FOR RELEGATION TUSSLE
Rayo Vallecano, Real Mallorca and Espanyol were the three to come up from the Segunda last season. While most people would ordinarily point to the promoted sides as the most likely to be relegated, the prediction model disagrees.
It gives Mallorca a 30.7 per cent likelihood of going straight back down, and Espanyol are at 17.6 per cent – neither of those are among the bottom three, though Rayo (45.9 per cent) are seen as the second favourites to head back to the second tier.
But it's Elche (57.9 per cent) who are the clear front-runners in this regard, and then it looks agonisingly close for the third and final relegation spot.
According to the predictor, it's likely to be neck-and-neck between Deportivo Alaves (41.1 per cent) and Cadiz (41.9 per cent).
Bologna 3-3 Juventus: Bianconeri hit back in Motta's job interview
Juventus scored three goals in eight minutes to complete a remarkable comeback and secure a 3-3 draw against Serie A's surprise package Bologna on Monday.
The Bianconeri, who sacked Massimiliano Allegri last week, endured a nightmare start as Riccardo Calafiori and Santiago Castro propelled hosts Bologna into a 2-0 lead within 11 minutes.
Matters got worse for Bianconeri interim boss Paolo Montero when Calafiori struck again eight minutes into the second half to put Bologna, coached by reported Juve target Thiago Motta, into a 3-0 lead, with the defender chipping the ball over goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny.
Yet Federico Chiesa's 76th-minute effort kickstarted a stunning turnaround, with Arkadiusz Milik's free-kick soon after teeing up a grandstand finale.
Kenan Yildiz was the player who sealed the draw, as Juve hit back against their potential next coach.
The result left third-placed Bologna level on 68 points with Juve in fourth before the final matchday.
Data Debrief: Three down? No problems
For the first time in their history, Juve avoided defeat in a Serie A game in which they had been at least three goals behind.
Chiesa was key to their comeback. Bologna are the team that the Italy international has scored the most league goals against in his career (seven in 11 matches).
Liverpool offer 'difficult to ignore', says Klopp's replacement Slot
Arne Slot said it was "not an easy decision" to leave Feyenoord, but ultimately he could not turn down the Liverpool job.
Liverpool finally confirmed Slot as Jurgen Klopp's successor on Monday.
Klopp signed off on his nine-year tenure in charge of Liverpool with a 2-0 win over Wolves on Sunday.
The German started an "Arne Slot" chant during his leaving speech at Anfield, and a day later, the Reds officially announced the 45-year-old Dutchman's appointment, subject to a work permit.
Slot led Feyenoord to the Eredivisie title during his time in charge, as well as the KNVB Beker, while they also reached the Europa Conference League final in 2022.
Speaking to Feyenoord's official website, Slot said: "It is certainly not an easy decision to close the door behind you at a club where you have experienced so many wonderful moments and worked successfully with so many wonderful people.
"But as a sportsman, an opportunity to become a head coach in the Premier League, at one of the biggest clubs in the world, is difficult to ignore.
"At the same time, we understand very well that working at a club like Liverpool is a special and unique opportunity for him. With that in mind, we started the conversation to see if we could find a solution together, and in the end we succeeded."
Feyenoord beat Excelsior in Feyenoord's final match in charge on Sunday.
Hojlund form gives Man Utd 'luxury problem' for FA Cup final, says Ten Hag
Rasmus Hojlund's return to form presents a "luxury problem" for Manchester United ahead of this weekend's FA Cup final against Manchester City, says Erik ten Hag.
Hojlund came off the bench to score United's second goal as they rounded off their Premier League campaign with a 2-0 win over Brighton and Hove Albion on Sunday, having also netted in last week's 3-2 victory over Newcastle United.
He finished his debut Premier League season with 10 goals, becoming the youngest player to reach double figures in 2023-24 (21 years, 105 days old as of Sunday).
Hojlund has battled injury problems and dips in form throughout the campaign, and in his absence, Ten Hag has often opted to deploy Bruno Fernandes as a false nine.
The Portugal international started United's last two matches in that position, and Ten Hag says he has plenty to think about as he prepares to name his cup final lineup.
"It is not a dilemma, it is a luxury problem," Ten Hag said.
"I think both formations can be a success because, as you know, we can play with the set-up from the Etihad, where we were a threat with Bruno's movement in behind.
"With Rasmus Hojlund in behind and in form, it is absolutely something we have to consider.
"Let's have a thought, but let's not say we only need 11 players. In a tough final, you need a bench as well."
Hojlund failed to score in his first 15 Premier League matches before ending his drought against Aston Villa on Boxing Day, though he did score five times in United's unsuccessful Champions League campaign before Christmas.
He has 16 goals across all competitions this term, which Ten Hag sees as a good effort when taking his fitness problems into account.
"It could always be better, but don't forget he had three injuries this season," Ten Hag said.
"He came in with an injury and missed the start, then he got injured before winter, and then got another injury after winter.
"Every time that has broken his rhythm. If you score 16 goals for a first season, it is okay, and remember it is also not over. We have the final too."
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