EPL

Premier League predictions: As Man City title tilt set to roll on, can Chelsea frustrate Arsenal?

By Sports Desk April 28, 2023

If a statement win was what Manchester City were after against Arsenal on Wednesday, then they got it.

City thrashed the Premier League leaders 4-1 at the Etihad Stadium to close the gap to the Gunners to two points, and Pep Guardiola's side still have two games in hand.

The reigning champions play again on Sunday, with a trip to Fulham on the cards. Arsenal, meanwhile, are next in action on Tuesday, when they host struggling Chelsea, who have lost every game under interim boss Frank Lampard.

At the other end of the table, Leicester City face Everton in a relegation six-pointer. In the race for Europe, Tottenham travel to Liverpool.

Fulham v Manchester City

City have won their last 13 meetings with Fulham in all competitions, only winning more consecutively against Watford (15 – 2013-2022) and West Brom (14 – 2012-2018) in their history.

Erling Haaland has scored 33 Premier League goals for Manchester City this season, a record in a 38-game season. He is one away from equalling the overall record for a single season, set by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and matched by Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (34 goals) in 42-game campaigns. This will be his 30th appearance in the competition, with his 33 goals already more than 21 teams managed in total in their first 30 Premier League games.

Pep Guardiola has won 25 of his 38 Premier League away games against London sides, the highest win rate of any visiting manager to take charge of at least 10 such games (66 per cent). All eight of his defeats in the capital have come against either Tottenham (five) or Chelsea (three).

Best bet – City to avoid defeat: Fulham are winless in their last 15 Premier League meetings with City (D3 L12) since a 3-1 away win in April 2009. They have lost the last 10 in a row by an aggregate score of 28-4.

Long shot – Fulham to keep a clean sheet: Fulham have kept just one clean sheet in their 29 Premier League games against City, a goalless draw in March 2004. 

Opta prediction: City, as expected, are made big favourites (64.8 per cent). The draw is rated at 21.9 per cent, while Fulham are given a 13.3 per cent chance of victory.

 

Liverpool v Tottenham

Liverpool have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League games against Spurs (W13 D6) and are unbeaten in 10 since a 4-1 loss at Wembley Stadium in October 2017.

Tottenham are winless in five Premier League away games, losing as many games in this run (three) as they had in their previous 16 on the road beforehand (W8 D5). It is their longest run without an away league win since a run of 12 between February and November 2019.

Liverpool have won their last three Premier League matches, despite conceding in each match. The last time they won four games in a row was in November and December earlier this season, also conceding in all four victories.

Best bet – Mohamed Salah to score or assist: Salah has been involved in 11 goals in his last eight home games in all competitions (eight goals, three assists), scoring at least once in each of his last six. Since he joined Liverpool in 2017, no player has scored more Premier League goals against Tottenham than the Egyptian (seven).

Long shot – Liverpool under 1.5 goals: Tottenham have conceded 31 away goals in the Premier League this season, already their most in a single campaign since 2008-09 (35). They have only kept two league clean sheets outside of London this season, doing so in victories at Nottingham Forest (2-0) and Brighton and Hove Albion (1-0).

Opta prediction: The supercomputer hands Liverpool a 55.2 per cent probability of winning this one, while Spurs are given just a 20.0 per cent shot. The draw has a 24.8 per cent likelihood.

Leicester City v Everton

Following their 2-0 win at Goodison Park in November, Leicester are looking to complete a Premier League double over Everton for just the second time, previously doing so in their 2015-16 title winning campaign.

Everton have won their last two Premier League away games against Leicester – they have never won on three consecutive visits to the Foxes in their league history.

Dean Smith has won four and lost none of his six Premier League meetings with Everton, winning three of his four at home against the Toffees. Only Antonio Conte (seven) has faced Everton more without ever losing to them as a manager in the competition.

Best bet – Leicester to concede: Despite Everton's woeful form in front of goal this season, they should be confident of getting on the scoresheet, given Leicester have conceded in each of their last 18 Premier League games, their joint-longest run without a clean sheet in the competition. 

Long shot – Everton to win: Everton are winless in their last 12 Premier League away games (D5 L7). Since beating Brighton 2-0 in August 2021, they have won just two of their last 33 away league games (D10 L21).

Opta prediction: Everton won this fixture last season, but Opta does not give them much chance of repeating that feat on Monday. Their chances of victory are rated at only 21.8 per cent, while the draw is 26.3 per cent, making Leicester (51.9 per cent) the clear favourites.

 

Arsenal v Chelsea

Arsenal have won four of their last five Premier League games against Chelsea (L1), as many as they had in their previous 23 against the Blues (D6 L13).

The Gunners are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games against Chelsea for the first time since February 2004. Indeed, they could achieve their second league double in three seasons against the Blues, having done so just once in the previous 20 campaigns beforehand (2003-04).

Chelsea have lost all five matches in all competitions since Lampard's return to the club, their worst losing run since a six-game run in October and November 1993. The Blues have lost 19 games in total this season, last losing 20 in a single campaign in 1987-88.

Best bet – Bukayo Saka 2+ shots on target: Saka has been directly involved in 16 goals in his 16 Premier League home games this season (nine goals, seven assists). He has both scored and assisted a goal in three different games at Emirates Stadium in the competition this term.

Long shot – Arsenal to fail to score: Only Southampton have kept fewer home clean sheets than Arsenal (three) in the Premier League this season. However, the Gunners have only failed to score in one of their 16 at the Emirates so far this term (0-0 vs Newcastle United in January).

Opta prediction: Arsenal have had a wobble that might prove costly in the title race but will be determined to bounce back. Opta makes them the favourites (43.5 per cent), with Chelsea at 28.2 per cent. The draw is rated at 28.3 per cent.

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    Former Manchester City goalkeeper David James hails Pep Guardiola for "doing remarkable things" but believes he is still not at Alex Ferguson’s level.

    City became the first team in Premier League history to win four consecutive titles with their 3-1 win over West Ham on Sunday, pipping Arsenal to the crown by two points.

    Manchester United had previously won three consecutive Premier League seasons, achieving the feat twice under Ferguson (1998-2001 and 2006-2009).

    Guardiola’s side can create more history on Saturday as they aim to clinch unprecedented back-to-back league and FA Cup doubles against the Red Devils.

    Asked if this achievement put Guardiola’s name alongside Ferguson’s as the best Premier League manager, James, who spent two years with City, disagreed.

    "No, Fergie's still the best. Look at statistics and longevity," James told Stats Perform. "And even more so, since Fergie left, what's happened to Manchester United.

    "You can't even blame or use the excuse he had a good team and did well with it, Fergie rode the waves, he was up and down and even these downs weren't particularly bad.

    "I think third or fourth was probably the worst they ever did; Fergie was the best and Pep will have to hang around for another decade, I think, before he can actually challenge that position.

    "But what we're seeing at the moment, you've got a different style of football, a different type of game in so many different ways. The way the league is constructed at the moment with other competitions around it, Pep is having to do different things to what Fergie may have had to do.

    "I know Fergie was a great manager, but not necessarily the greatest coach. Pep is a great manager and a great coach. He's also got an extra string to his bow in that sense.

    "To be the winner of that league four years in a row, you need to be a superb manager. And I think Pep, in this short time frame, is doing some remarkable things, but he's going to have to hang around for a lot longer to take Ferguson's crown."

    Following their victory over West Ham, Guardiola stated that he was "closer to leaving than staying", raising speculation that next season could be his last.

    "I think the big question for Pep, and it is logical that he will now become the focus given that Jurgen Klopp announced his departure a few months ago, and all of a sudden it was nothing, but Jurgen and he will be the next focus," James added.

    "I think the thing for Pep is, what does he want to do as a person? And it's not that he's completed the treble and that's enough because I think that he would want to do a treble treble, you want to do a quadruple.

    "I can see that competitive side in him, he doesn't seem to change on the sidelines. Even yesterday, when they conceded the goal, and it was a fantastic goal from Kudus, he wasn't happy.

    "I think you can still see that he's still animated, still engaged with the game. There's no question that he's feeling tired in that sense.

    "I would like him to stay. I would like him to stay because I think when you've got someone so good, you need someone to beat them legitimately rather than them just step away and allow everyone else to play.

    "I think he should stay. And I'm sure City will do everything they can to keep him in charge for the foreseeable future."

  • 'Maybe we can change that' - De Roon believes Atalanta can end Leverkusen unbeaten run 'Maybe we can change that' - De Roon believes Atalanta can end Leverkusen unbeaten run

    Atalanta captain Marten de Roon believes they have what it takes to end Bayer Leverkusen’s unbeaten season in the Europa League final.

    De Roon will not be available for La Dea in Dublin on Wednesday due to injury but has joined up with the squad to offer his support.

    Atalanta have had a memorable campaign, reaching their first European final and qualifying for next season’s Champions League.

    Leverkusen, meanwhile, claimed their first-ever Bundesliga title without losing a single game and are aiming to complete a treble.

    Despite coming up against a tough opponent, De Roon is confident that his side will be able to end their 61-year drought without a major trophy.

    "Every team is beatable. At the moment, [Leverkusen] seem unbeatable, but maybe we are the ones who can change that," he said in the pre-match press conference.

    "We have to believe in our philosophy, play attacking football and try to beat them. You don't win a trophy if you don't beat the best.

    "We have had a great campaign, and we fully deserve to be here. Both sides deserve to be playing this final. Let's see who will manage to lift the trophy.

    Atalanta narrowly missed out in the Coppa Italia final to Juventus earlier this month, and Gian Piero Gasperini is now preparing to manage his first-ever European final.

    The Italian praised Leverkusen but stressed the belief he has in his own team after an impressive campaign.

    He said: "We are aware that we are facing a great team. We know that they are undefeated, and we know that they have had an amazing season.

    "Our journey, however, was also very good as we beat very strong teams to reach the final, and we also have belief.

    "Leverkusen are a complete team; extremely organised. They are versatile, they can defend and recover the ball well.

    "The results they have achieved this season are not an accident. Certainly, small details can make the difference in a final. We have to respect them and try to adapt quickly to the opponents we are facing."

  • Alonso: Self-confidence is driving Leverkusen forward Alonso: Self-confidence is driving Leverkusen forward

    Xabi Alonso says Bayer Leverkusen are driven by self-confidence in their ability to win games ahead of the Europa League final.

    Leverkusen are chasing the second trophy in a potential treble against Atalanta in Dublin on Wednesday, with the DFB-Pokal final against Kaiserslautern to follow on Saturday.

    The Bundesliga champions became the first German team to go unbeaten on their way to the title and are currently on a 51-match run without defeat in all competitions.

    Alonso is taking charge of his first European final as a manager, but he believes his team will draw on the experience they have already gained this season.

    "Our self-confidence keeps driving us on. We know that we can produce goals until the final minute," he said in his pre-match press conference. "That's a huge development that the team has made this season.

    "From the start of the campaign, we believed in our brand of football and that's right at the heart of this successful run.

    "We'll prepare like we did for all the games before. We haven't lost in 51 games, so my boys know how to adapt to different situations. That also applies to the final.

    "What matters above all tomorrow is mentality. We have a game plan, but the players still have that wonderful atmosphere from the title celebrations on Saturday, and we want to tap into that."

    Alonso is the youngest coach to manage a men’s European final since Roberto Di Matteo oversaw Chelsea’s Champions League victory in 2012.

    He will also become just the fourth person to play in and manage a major European final this century after also playing in the 2005 and 2007 Champions League finals with Liverpool.

    Reflecting on his time at Leverkusen, Alonso said: "I was so young in this coach career, so when I was offered the Leverkusen job, so it was 'let's go, let's see what happens'.

    "In one year and a half, so much has happened; it has been a great experience, and it has only been a year and a half, but we have made so many right decisions.

    "I think we have great chemistry.  The mentality we have shown throughout the year has been fantastic. I am really enjoying it."

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