NFL

Josh Allen regression an increasing concern for suddenly slumping Bills

By Sports Desk November 22, 2021

Just over a month ago, no team appeared better placed to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI than the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo laid their AFC Championship Game demons to rest with a blowout win over the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, their offseason focus on stacking talent on the defensive line seeming to pay dividends in a 38-20 success that saw Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense held in check while Josh Allen produced a performance that seemed to solidify him as an MVP frontrunner.

Yet the winds of change blow swiftly across the NFL, especially in a season where parity reigns supreme, and six weeks on from Buffalo's victory in Kansas City, the Bills look a long way from Super Bowl contenders.

Indeed, while the Chiefs – though still far from consistent on offense – look to have got their house in order and are firmly in contention for the top seed in the AFC, the Bills no longer own top spot in their division after being run over in their own building by Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts marched to a 41-15 rout at Orchard Park, running back Taylor scoring five touchdowns and looking a more likely MVP contender than Buffalo's dual-threat quarterback.

While Taylor's astounding success will of course be concerning to the Bills, their season-long performance on defense has generally been impressive.

Derrick Henry also enjoyed a dominant outing running the ball against Buffalo in the Bills' Week 6 loss to the Tennessee Titans. However, for the most part, Buffalo's is a defense that has typically prevented opponents from performing efficiently through the air or on the ground, the Bills allowing the fewest yards per play in the NFL.

The bigger problems for Buffalo concern an offense that has stalled in recent weeks and the performance of a quarterback whose step back from his stunning 2020 is more worrying than first thought.

Buffalo's damaging offensive downturn

The Bills remain a top-10 offense by yards per play, in which they rank sixth with 5.95, yet a deeper look at their form over the past four games should only further doubt over whether this team can make the playoffs.

Indeed, since their shootout loss to the Titans, in which Buffalo would have prevailed if not for a botched quarterback sneak on a potential game-winning drive, the Bills have passed for 300 yards just once in four games, and that performance came against a New York Jets defense last in the league by yards per play allowed.

The Bills have committed nine turnovers across that span, four coming against the Colts after they gave the ball away twice in the win over the Jets and three times in an embarrassing loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars where they managed only six points.

That fourth-down failure in Tennessee right now looks to be an inflection point, both for the Bills and Allen, who has struggled for the accuracy that astounded so many last season.

Allen a long way from MVP calibre 

Were it not for Aaron Rodgers' incredible 2020, Allen might have been named the MVP last year.

He was a distant second to Rodgers in the voting, receiving four votes to 44 for the Green Bay Packers star. Mahomes (2) was the only other player to receive a vote.

Allen earned those votes with a campaign he finished with 4,544 yards passing, 37 touchdown throws and 10 interceptions. He also ran for eight scores and caught another.

While he is tied fifth in the NFL with 21 passing touchdowns, Allen has already thrown eight interceptions, with his completion percentage declining from 69.2 in 2020 to 65.7 this season.

That is a reflection of his drop-off in accuracy. Last year, Allen delivered an accurate well-thrown ball on 80.5 per cent of attempts, seventh in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 100 passes.

In 2021, his well-thrown percentage of 77.8 is below the average of 78.8 for quarterbacks who meet that same threshold.

No quarterback with three-figure pass attempts has thrown more interceptable passes than Allen, whose tally of 19 gives him a pickable pass percentage of 5.21 that trails only Mike White (6.87), Zach Wilson (6.86) and Davis Mills (6.06).

Only five quarterbacks have had more attempts under duress than Allen (110) and his pickable pass rate balloons to 8.47 per cent when pressured. Justin Fields (9.43) is the sole signal-caller with at least 50 passes under pressure to fare worse.

With a well-thrown percentage of 70.6 and four pickable passes against the Colts, he is trending in the wrong direction.

Yet he is not solely to blame, with his struggles partially a symptom of playing behind an offensive line that has struggled with injuries. However, protection issues aside, the numbers suggest there are gameplan adjustments available to the Bills that can make Allen's life easier.

Putting the boot in

The Colts finished with 264 yards on the ground compared to 91 for Buffalo, the Bills running the ball only 13 times.

That disparity is a reflection of the game script, with the Colts jumping out to a 24-7 lead in the first half they never looked like relinquishing.

But, in more conventional game situations, the Bills may be well served by leaning more on a run game that has been surprisingly efficient. 

The Bills are sixth in the NFL in yards per rush (4.70) but are running the ball just 32.8 per cent of the time. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss have not lived up to expectations but, with the former averaging 3.34 yards per carry on rushes where this a run disruption by a defender, there is an argument for putting more faith in a ground game in which Allen can easily be incorporated.

That threat of the run and Allen's ability with his legs could also feature more heavily as part of the passing attack. The Bills average 9.85 yards per play on play-action throws (the league average is 9.28) but use it on only 13.56 per cent of pass attempts. That is slightly the league average of 12.9 but, given the success they have had when utilising a play-fake, there is room for it to become a more prominent part of the offense.

Similarly, the Bills use a boot-action on 3.68 per cent of pass attempts, below the NFL average of 5.9, yet, on the small sample size of 11 such passes, Allen is delivering a well-thrown ball 81.8 per cent of the time when they use it.

On a short week in the wake of a chastening defeat, the Bills now face a potentially season-defining game on Thanksgiving with a New Orleans Saints team that will themselves be desperate to bounce back from a humbling at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles, the turnaround giving them little time to implement significant changes to the offensive approach.

However, facing an aggressive Saints defense that was gashed on the ground by a dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts in Week 11, the Bills' best hope of getting back on track may be to show more belief in their highly drafted running backs and lean on the athletic upside that convinced them to make Allen the face of the franchise.

Related items

  • Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

  • Denis Compton to Victoria Pendleton – Louis Rees-Zammit joins multi-sport stars Denis Compton to Victoria Pendleton – Louis Rees-Zammit joins multi-sport stars

    Former Wales and British and Irish Lions wing Louis Rees-Zammit is reportedly set to join reigning Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs.

    The 23-year-old stunned the world of rugby in January by quitting the sport in an attempt to secure a contract with an NFL team in 2024, and his dream could soon come true.

    Here, the PA news agency looks at some other multi-talented sports stars.

    Denis Compton (cricket and football)

    Compton played 75 Test matches for England, making his debut in 1937 aged 19 and scoring his first century the following year against Don Bradman’s touring Australian side.

    He had made his Arsenal debut in 1936 and went on to win the league title in 1948 and FA Cup in 1950 with the Gunners, the same year in which he helped Middlesex win the County Championship.

    Babe Didrikson Zaharias (athletics, golf)

    Zaharias also excelled at basketball and baseball, but initially made her name in track and field, winning two gold medals and one silver in the 1932 Olympics in Los Angeles.

    Zaharias won the javelin comfortably, took the 80 metres hurdles in a world-record time and finished equal first in the high jump before losing the title when her technique was deemed illegal.

    A latecomer to golf, she won more than 50 titles, including the US Women’s Open three times, and co-founded the LPGA.

    Lottie Dod (tennis, golf, archery)

    Lottie Dod remains Wimbledon’s youngest women’s singles champion, winning the first of her five titles at just 15 years and 285 days old in 1887.

    Later turning her attention to golf, she won the 1904 British Ladies Amateur title and four years later won a silver medal in archery at the Olympic Games in London, where her brother Willy claimed gold in the men’s event.

    Jim Thorpe (athletics, American football, baseball, basketball)

    The first Native American to win gold for the United States in the Olympics, Thorpe won both the pentathlon and decathlon in Stockholm in 1912.

    He lost his titles after it emerged he had previously been paid for playing semi-professional baseball, but they were eventually reinstated by the International Olympic Committee.

    Thorpe played six seasons in Major League Baseball and for six NFL teams, as well as enjoying a less-well documented spell in professional basketball.

    Victoria Pendleton (cycling and horse racing)

    Two-time Olympic champion track cyclist Victoria Pendleton announced in March 2015 that she had set her sights on riding in the following year’s Cheltenham Festival.

    She made her competitive debut in August 2015 and won her first race, on March 2, 2016, on 5-4 favourite Pacha Du Polder at Wincanton.

    Pendleton then achieved her stated aim of riding in the Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham and finished fifth, describing the result as “probably the greatest achievement of my life”.

  • Louis Rees-Zammit reportedly signs for Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs Louis Rees-Zammit reportedly signs for Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs

    Former Wales rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit has signed for Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs, according to a report in the United States.

    Rees-Zammit is set to join the Chiefs’ practice squad, having impressed during his time on the NFL’s international player pathway.

    The 23-year-old’s signing is expected to be confirmed on Friday, with running back and wide receiver his designated positions.

    The move comes after he visited several NFL franchises, including the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos.

    Rees-Zammit’s next goal is to win a place on the Chiefs’ final roster for the new season, joining their star players Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in targeting a third-successive Super Bowl.

    The Gloucester, Wales and Lions wing stunned the world of rugby in January by quitting the sport in an attempt to secure a contract with an NFL team in 2024.

    That dream moved a step closer when he impressed during last week’s pro day that forms part of the international player pathway.

    Rees-Zammit clocked 4.43 seconds in his 40-yard dash, a 9ft 7in broad jump and 29-inch vertical jump.

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.