The Buffalo Bills overturned a half-time deficit to defeat the Chicago Bills 35-13 on Saturday and clinch the AFC East title.

The freezing conditions in Chicago gave this the feel of a home game for the Bills, but they were far from comfortable early on and threatened to blow their lead in the race for home-field advantage in the AFC.

Josh Allen responded to Justin Fields' opening touchdown drive by leading Buffalo down the field and completing a 19-yard TD pass to Gabe Davis.

But the Bills missed the PAT, and the only score for the remainder of the half was a successful Bears field goal, giving Chicago a 10-6 lead through two quarters.

The hopes of the Bears – and the Bills' AFC rivals – were quickly dashed in the second half, however, as Devin Singletary dashed in from 33 yards and then James Cook followed him from 27 yards for a second score in double-quick time either side of a Chicago fumble.

An unconvincing Allen display, which included two interceptions and a recovered fumble, kept the Bears in contention, yet they could not capitalise.

And the Bills QB finished in more familiar fashion with a rushing score and a TD pass to Dawson Knox in the closing stages as Buffalo took another step towards the first seed.

Bills feel the heat in AFC

The pressure had been on the Bills because there never appeared any possibility of the Kansas City Chiefs not defeating the stumbling Seattle Seahawks. A 24-10 victory was Patrick Mahomes' first against the Seahawks, meaning the Indianapolis Colts are the only team he has now played but not beaten.

The Cincinnati Bengals also remain in contention at the top of the AFC after a dominant first half against the New England Patriots. Joe Burrow completed 28 passes – a season high for any QB in any half – for 284 yards and three touchdowns before half-time, meaning the Bengals could just about withstand a second-half pick six in a 22-18 win.

The Patriots' defeat meant the Baltimore Ravens clinched their playoff berth with a 17-9 defeat of the Atlanta Falcons.

Another manic Minnesota finish

Having claimed a record-breaking comeback win last week, the Minnesota Vikings had to hold off a rally from the New York Giants, who tied the game late on. However, a 40-yard field goal from Greg Joseph had defeated the Colts, and he topped that effort with a 61-yard conversion as time expired for a 27-24 Vikings victory.

The Detroit Lions, Minnesota's NFC North rivals, saw their three-game winning run ended by the Carolina Panthers. Both the Panthers and the New Orleans Saints improved to 6-9, firmly in contention in the miserable NFC South.

We are firmly in the business end of the 2022 NFL season.

Seven teams have already clinched their place in the postseason and a further seven will join them in the final three weeks of the campaign.

This is the time of year when room for error is diminished in games that have a huge bearing on how the final playoff field shakes out.

As such, festive feeling will be thin on the ground for those teams playing in such encounters during this weekend's Christmas schedule who come up short.

So often, though, these contests are decided by the game within the game, and here Stats Perform looks at three of the most important Week 16 clashes and the personnel matchups that could decide them.

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

Win Probability: Patriots 52.0 per cent

Key Matchup: Matthew Judon and Josh Uche vs. Bengals offensive line

The Patriots' hopes of claiming a Wild Card berth took a massive blow in bizarre circumstances last week as Jakobi Meyers' inexplicable last-second lateral landed in the grateful arms of Las Vegas Raiders pass rusher Chandler Jones, who stiff-armed Mac Jones into the turf and raced into the endzone to deny New England a chance of an overtime win.

At 7-7, they are still just a game behind the Miami Dolphins and must climb off the mat, though they are this week tasked with doing so against one of the hottest teams in football.

The 10-4 Bengals have a one-game edge over the Baltimore Ravens in the race for the AFC North division title, yet there is a matchup the Patriots can look to exploit in this one.

While Cincinnati's offensive line has improved in terms of preventing pressure on Joe Burrow, it remains in the bottom half of the NFL in pass block win rate, in which the Bengals rank 24th.

In Judon and Uche, the Patriots possess a pair of pass rushers who can cause the Cincinnati O-Line huge problems. Judon is second in the NFL in sacks (14.5), behind only Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers, while Uche has 10.5, all of which have come across his last seven games.

Both Judon (40.08 per cent) and Uche (42.38 per cent) possess pass rush win rates way above the average for edge players of 28.74 per cent, and if they are at their best, they could help eradicate the advantage the Bengals have at quarterback and tilt the game in New England's favour.

Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs

Win Probability: Chiefs 80.4 per cent

Key Matchup: Seattle defensive backs vs. Chiefs receivers

Like the Patriots, the Seahawks' prospects of reaching the postseason are in significant jeopardy.

Their hopes of winning the NFC West are gone after the 49ers clinched the division title in Seattle by completing their first sweep of the Seahawks since 2011 in Week 15.

That leaves Seattle fighting for a Wild Card, and the odds are very much against them in this one against a Chiefs team who are in a battle for the AFC's one seed with the Buffalo Bills.

Part of the reason why the Seahawks are still in the mix is the play of their young but talented secondary, which ranks 13th in the NFL in pass coverage win rate according to Stats Perform's matchup data.

Rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen has enjoyed an outstanding first season for Seattle, with his combined open percentage allowed across man and zone coverage of 22.75 the seventh-best among corners with at least 100 total matchups.

The Chiefs' pass-catchers are 13th in terms of winning their coverage matchups in 2022, a year in which the loss of Tyreek Hill has undoubtedly had an impact.

Yet with 82.1 per cent of Patrick Mahomes' throws this season going to an open target, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid continues to excel at scheming receivers into space.

For the Seahawks to have any hope of pulling off a sizeable upset, their secondary must limit the chances for the Chiefs' receivers to enjoy such freedom.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Win Probability: Cowboys 59 per cent

Key Matchup: Eagles offensive line vs. Cowboys pass rush

This NFC East matchup may have lost some of its lustre with the Eagles needing a meltdown to surrender the division title to the Cowboys and Jalen Hurts out because of a shoulder injury.

But that should not take away from the true heavyweight fight this game provides in the trenches.

Micah Parsons may be losing ground in the Defensive Player of the Year race, but he remains the headline act for a defense that is first in the NFL in pass rush win rate.

That would normally give the Cowboys a clear edge in a matchup with every offensive line, but not with this one.

Philadelphia's O-line leads the league in pass block win rate, with the Eagles allowing a pressure rate of 32.9 per cent that is the fourth-best in the NFL.

The Eagles maintaining their strength up front against Parsons and Co. will obviously be critical to Philadelphia as they seek to overcome the absence of Hurts.

There is no substitute for the value Hurts brings in the run game, but the Cowboys' defense has shown enough vulnerability to suggest backup quarterback Gardner Minshew can have success against Dallas, provided the offensive line wins the battle up front and allows the Eagles to stay on schedule.

The Philadelphia Eagles may have already won the NFC East and will enter Week 16 without quarterback Jalen Hurts, but a clash with the Dallas Cowboys remains the standout game on the slate.

While the Cowboys' attempts to stick with the Eagles this year were hampered by their road form, Dallas are strong at home and will hope to send a warning to their division rivals ahead of a playoff campaign in which both teams will hope to feature prominently.

Elsewhere, the Kansas City Chiefs have work to do still as they aim, like the Eagles, to secure a bye with the number one seed in the AFC.

But it is not all about the NFL's leading lights, with the battle for position ahead of the postseason ongoing – with a big game in store in Charlotte.

Stats Perform picks out the key facts ahead of a busy Christmas weekend...
 

Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-4)

In beating the Chicago Bears last week, the Eagles secured a 13th win in a single season for only the third time in franchise history. On the two previous occasions, Philly finished with a 13-3 record and reached the Super Bowl, losing to the New England Patriots in the 2004 season and beating the same team in 2017.

The Eagles have never won 14 games in a regular season and will be without injured QB Hurts as they aim to end a four-game losing streak in Dallas.

But the Cowboys are coming into this big home game on a downer, having blown a 17-point lead against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week for their first loss in five.

That game also again showed big QB performances can sometimes prove immaterial, with Dak Prescott throwing for 256 yards and three touchdowns. The Cowboys are 1-2 this season when Prescott has thrown three or more TD passes and only 7-6 since 2020. Prior to that, they were 13-3 in such games.

Seattle Seahawks (7-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)

Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith each earned Pro Bowl selections this week – a fifth for Mahomes but only a first for Smith. Both were well deserved, with the pair third and second respectively for passer rating among qualifying players this year (Smith, 105.3, and Mahomes, 105.0).

However, Mahomes will look to do something he has never done before on Saturday: beat the Seahawks. Having lost 38-31 to Seattle in his only previous such clash in 2018, they are one of just two teams Mahomes has played but never beaten (also 0-2 against the Indianapolis Colts).

Smith, who has never faced the Chiefs, leads the NFC with 26 touchdown passes as he aims to follow Russell Wilson (2017 and 2018) and Matt Hasselbeck (2005) as the only Seahawks to lead the conference across a season. However, with eight interceptions and four fumbles lost by Smith, Seattle are the sole team in the league to have committed a turnover in every game this year.

Detroit Lions (7-7) @ Carolina Panthers (5-9)

The Lions' stunning 6-1 run, including an active three-game winning streak, has them firmly in playoff contention in the NFC. The last time they won six out of seven games in a single season, back in 2016, was also the last time they made the postseason.

However, the Lions have a miserable history against the Panthers. Their 3-7 record in this matchup is their worst against any current NFC franchise, while Detroit are 0-5 on the road against the Panthers since winning on their first trip in 1999.

With Jared Goff in the best form of his career, the Lions will hope to snap that streak. He has gone six games without an interception, which ties the longest such streak by a Lions QB since the statistic was first tracked in 1960. Goff had never previously gone more than three games without throwing a pick.

Elsewhere...

The Bears this week face the Buffalo Bills, the only team in the Super Bowl era to have lost more consecutive games with 125 or more rushing yards in each loss. Chicago have lost seven in a row, but the 1976 Bills were defeated in 10. With 2,616 rushing yards but a 3-11 record, the Bears are on course to become the first team to lead the league in rushing yards yet have one of the worst two records since the 1932 Staten Island Stapletons.

Recent history suggests the Minnesota Vikings will follow up last week's record-breaking comeback against the Colts with another win over the New York Giants. The Vikings' 7-2 record against the Giants since 2005 is their best against NFC opposition and New York's worst.

The Patriots will have to upset the Cincinnati Bengals to get their playoff bid back on track, yet they have won their past seven home games in this matchup, including the last four while scoring at least 35 points. The last team to win five in a row at home to any one team while scoring 35 points or more were the San Francisco 49ers against the Atlanta Falcons between 1992 and 1996.

Tua Tagovailoa will be relieved this week's game against the Green Bay Packers is in Miami and not Wisconsin. Following last week's defeat to Buffalo, the Dolphins QB is 0-4 in starts when the weather is below 50 degrees Fahrenheit; he is 17-7 when the temperature is at least 50 degrees.

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has no idea how the NFL MVP voters can pick anyone other than Patrick Mahomes for the league's highest individual honour.

Mahomes and the Chiefs had to go to overtime to defeat the one-win Houston Texans 30-24 and clinch the AFC West for the seventh successive season on Sunday.

The 2018 MVP completed 36 of his 41 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns, as well as running for another score, though his impressive performance through the air was undermined somewhat by Kansas City committing 10 penalties for 102 yards and the Chiefs twice turning the ball over on fumbles.

Jalen Hurts, the quarterback of the 13-1 Philadelphia Eagles who look destined for the one seed in the NFC, is the bookmakers' favourite for the MVP.

The Chiefs are 11-3 and on course to finish as the AFC's second seed, but Reid believes Mahomes is still worthy of a second MVP despite the Eagles' superior record.

"You saw Pat and what he did. I mean, he took care of business today," Reid said in his press conference when asked about the team cleaning up penalties.

"He went back to work and worked on it. I mean, you're talking about a guy that, if he's not the MVP in the league, I'm not sure what’s wrong with them.

"But he cleaned it up and comes out, and we have almost 500 yards of offense, minus 100 of penalties.

"That’s a pretty spectacular day there. But that's what he did. Great example of how you go back to the drawing board and make sure that you clean everything up."

Mahomes leads the NFL with 4,496 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns, while his 40 passing plays of 25 yards or more are the most in the league and nine more than that of Hurts.

The Dallas Cowboys missed the chance to clinch a playoff berth as they suffered a stunning overtime loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who claimed a thrilling 40-34 win on a pick-six from Rayshawn Jenkins.

Dallas led 27-10 in the third quarter with a postseason place within their grasp, and had the chance to punch their ticket late in regulation despite 2021 first overall pick Trevor Lawrence leading a Jaguars turnaround with touchdown passes of 59 yards and three yards to Zay Jones, which were sandwiched by a 10-yard toss to Marvin Jones Jr.

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott spun out of the pocket and found a diving Noah Brown for a 13-yard connection that marked Brown's second touchdown catch of the day and restored the Cowboys' lead with just over three minutes remaining.

Lawrence then fumbled on an 11-yard scramble as the Jaguars tried to respond to seemingly gift the game to Dallas, only for the Cowboys to quickly go three and out and hand the Jags a final chance to tie the game.

They did just that as Lawrence hit Zay Jones again for 19 yards with five seconds remaining to set up a 48-yard Riley Patterson field goal, which levelled matters at 34-34.

An engrossing quarterback duel between one of the NFL's best and one of its future stars was settled by an interception as Prescott's short third-down pass bounced off Brown's hands and into the grasp of Jenkins, who sprinted 52 yards the other way to seal a remarkable win.

The Jags improve to 6-8, just a game back in the win column of the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans, while the 10-4 Cowboys are still likely to make the playoffs but have a mountain to climb to win the NFC East, where they trail the Philadelphia Eagles by three games.

Chiefs, Eagles survive scares

The Kansas City Chiefs stunningly struggled to put away the one-win Houston Texans with the chance to clinch a seventh successive AFC West title.

It looked as if they may fall victim to the biggest upset of the season when Harrison Butker missed a game-winning 51-yard field goal to force overtime and Patrick Mahomes was sacked to give Houston the ball. However, Davis Mills fumbled the ball back to Kansas City on Houston's first offensive snap of the extra period, setting up Jerick McKinnon to seal a 30-24 win with a 26-yard walk-off touchdown run.

The Eagles were not pushed quite as far by the Chicago Bears, but another impressive dual-threat showing from Justin Fields meant the NFC's number one seed had to work hard for a 25-20 win, their 13th of a spectacular campaign, which was secured when A.J. Brown made his ninth catch of 181-yard display to convert on third down and allow Philadelphia to kill the clock.

Lions' surge continues as Jets let time run out

The Detroit Lions' hopes of an unlikely playoff berth were boosted once again as they claimed a dramatic sixth win in seven games to improve to 7-7.

Detroit dented the New York Jets' postseason prospects with a 20-17 win at MetLife Stadium, Jared Goff's 51-yard touchdown pass to Brock Wright on fourth down with 109 seconds remaining proving decisive.

The Jets, starting Zach Wilson once more in place of the injured Mike White, were left to rue poor clock management on the final drive, with Wilson's improvised 20-yard cross-field completion to Elijah Moore only progressing them to Detroit's 40-yard line with one second remaining. Greg Zuerlein's 58-yard field goal attempt drifted well wide, dropping the Jets to 7-7 after a 6-3 start.

There are four weeks remaining of the 2022 NFL season, meaning we are in the home stretch not only in the race for the playoffs, but also in the battle for the MVP.

Week 14 was one in which the race appeared to settle into one between four quarterbacks. Other positions are worthy of recognition, but since Adrian Peterson's win in 2012 the MVP has been solely a quarterback award, and there is a quartet who have separated themselves from the rest.

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins had received some hype as a potential MVP, but his successive disappointing displays against the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers have likely removed him from the equation.

This has become a fight between the quarterback piloting the best team in the NFC and a trio of signal-callers each hoping to lead their respective rosters to the top seed in the AFC.

Right now, it is the former who stands as the favourite because of a near-perfect resume.

THE FRONTRUNNER: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

The competition with more established NFL stars has been fierce but, after recent devastating performances against the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants, it is difficult to dispute Hurts as the MVP frontrunner.

A week on from brushing past the Titans, the Eagles swatted the Giants aside at The Meadowlands with another display of effortless dominance powered by Hurts’ ability to hit the deep ball and his influence on an ultra-diverse run game.

Hurts connected with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown for touchdowns of 41 and 33 yards, and also rushed for 77 yards and a score on seven carries. His 13 touchdown passes of at least 20 yards are the most in the NFL while his 10 rushing scores are the sixth-most, and two more than any other quarterback (Justin Fields, eight).

He now has 3,157 passing yards with 22 touchdown passes and 10 rushing touchdowns this season, becoming the the fourth quarterback ever with at least 3,000 passing yards, 20 touchdown passes & 10 rushing touchdowns in a single season, joining Kyler Murray (2020), Cam Newton (2011 and 2015) and Kordell Stewart (1997).

Newton won the MVP in 2015 by posting such numbers for a 15-1 Carolina Panthers team that went on to reach the Super Bowl. The Eagles are on course to go 16-1 thanks to Hurts’ growth as a thrower – his well-thrown rate of 82.7 percent is a substantial improvement on his mark of 77.1 per cent from 2021. If they do so, there are unlikely to be many convincing counterarguments against Hurts as the MVP.

DON'T COUNT HIM OUT: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

A three-interception performance by Mahomes against the Denver Broncos may have helped tilt the MVP race in favour of Hurts, but the 2018 MVP is still performing at a level to be worthy of regaining the award.

Mahomes has 60 completions of at least 20 yards this season. No other quarterback has even reached 50, with Joe Burrow his nearest challenger on 46.

He ranks eighth among quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 attempts with a well-thrown rate of 83.5 percent, and has been extremely accurate when going deep.

Indeed, Mahomes' completion percentage of 50 on pass attempts of at least 21 air yards is fourth among quarterbacks with at least 10 such throws. On top of his downfield explosiveness, Mahomes has done an excellent job of creating yardage for himself on the ground, his yards per carry average on scrambles of 7.44 bettered by only Justin Fields (7.98) and P.J. Walker (8.67).

Recent issues with turnovers and the fact the Chiefs lost to Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills and Joe Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals may have dented his case but, with four games to go, Mahomes has built the foundations of an MVP resume and still has the chance to earn the prize for a second time if he can lift Kansas City to the one seed.

FADING FAST?: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

The resume in terms of achievements for Allen is pretty sparkling. If the season ended today, the Bills would be the number one seed in the AFC and he delivered the tiebreaking win over the Chiefs with a tremendous fourth-quarter performance at Arrowhead.

Allen's deep ball has been extremely impressive this season. No quarterback in the NFL has accounted for more yards on throws of at least 21 air yards than his 833. 

The Bills star is also on the right side of the ledger in terms of accuracy, delivering a well-thrown ball on 82 percent of his passes. The league average – minimum 50 attempts – is 81.4.

However, like Mahomes, Allen has 11 interceptions this season, and has a pickable pass rate of 4.89 percent that is nearly a full point above the average of 4.09%.

His carelessness with the ball has contributed to key defeats to the likes of the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, costing the Bills wins that would have given them clear separation atop the AFC.

Allen is clearly one of the league's premier quarterbacks and will be for many years to come, but the consistency has not been there for him to be considered the MVP at this point.

THE SLEEPER: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

After a slow start, the man who spearheaded the Bengals' improbable charge to an AFC Championship is once again performing at a level that saw him elevate Cincinnati to the ranks of the elite.

Even in hard-fought Week 14 win over the Cleveland Browns with a Bengals' offense that has been one of the most productive in the NFL since Week 6 did not fire on all cylinders, Burrow's deadly precision was a difference-maker, most notably on a pinpoint 15-yard touchdown throw to Ja’Marr Chase on a post route to open the scoring.

Burrow delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 percent of his passes against the Browns. For the season, his well-thrown rate of 85.9 percent is fifth among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. His pickable pass rate of just 1.52 percent is the NFL's best.

Burrow is outperforming Hurts, Mahomes and Allen when it comes to delivering accurately and taking care of the ball, and has a signature win over Mahomes to his name from Week 13.

If the Bengals go on to wrest the AFC North from the Baltimore Ravens, Burrow will have an excellent case for the MVP, one that will be even stronger if 9-4 Cincinnati manage to catch Kansas City and Buffalo in the race for the one seed.

Patrick Mahomes is often the hero for the Kansas City Chiefs, but he heaped praise on their defense after a Week 14 win over the Denver Broncos, in which he threw three interceptions.

Mahomes and the Chiefs improved to 10-3 for the season with a 34-28 win in Denver, which eliminated the 3-10 Broncos from postseason contention.

The Kansas City quarterback recorded his 24th career game with at least 300 passing yards and three touchdown passes, surpassing Dan Marino (23) for the most such games by a player in his first six seasons in NFL history.

His 352-yard effort took Mahomes to 4,160 passing yards on the season. In doing so, he joined Peyton Manning as the only players in NFL history with at least 4,000 passing yards in five of their first six seasons.

But Mahomes, who threw three touchdowns, also produced a trio of turnovers, two of which took place in the second quarter and culminated in Broncos touchdowns that allowed the hosts back into a game they had trailed 27-0.

His third in the fourth quarter gave the Broncos, quarterbacked by Brett Rypien late on after Russell Wilson left the game with a concussion, the chance to take the lead.

But Rypien was intercepted by L'Jarius Sneed on the subsequent drive, allowing Mahomes and the offense to kill the clock and clinch a 14th successive win over Denver.

Asked about his interceptions, Mahomes said: "Just three bad decisions. When you look at them, the first one, I probably just could've taken the easy throw to the outside, and I forced it to [Travis] Kelce.

"The second one, I was just trying to burn it, and he [Patrick Surtain II] made a hell of a play. And the third one was bad-bad just because the situation. We're in field-goal range - especially here in altitude and no one else is open - so [I] just throw the ball away and let [kicker] Harrison [Butker] end the game.

"Luckily for me, the rest of the team stepped up. The defense made a lot of stops in critical moments when we were putting them in some bad situations."

Head coach Andy Reid, though, expressed support for his former MVP quarterback and the aggressive nature of his play that has so often paid dividends for the Chiefs.

"Every quarterback that's played in this league a while has a game like that," said Reid. "The one great thing about him is he kept firing and had a lot of big plays.

"You can't take away the three interceptions, but there sure were some good ones in between those, and it's a great learning experience."

Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson is in concussion protocol after he was forced to exit Sunday's 34-28 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the fourth quarter.

In one of his best statistical games of the season, Wilson threw three touchdowns for the first time since pulling on a Broncos jersey, clawing back from a 27-0 deficit to head into the fourth quarter trailing 34-21.

The Broncos scored another touchdown to begin the fourth period, but while scrambling down to the two-yard line, Wilson was tackled and violently slammed his head into the turf.

He was visibly wobbled when trying to return to his feet, and was promptly taken out of the game and placed in the concussion protocol.

Backup quarterback Brett Rypien finished that drive off with a touchdown, but ended the game with an interception when he had the chance to produce a go-ahead drive with under five minutes remaining.

The loss means the Broncos fell to 3-10 for the season, and the concussion protocol may keep Wilson out next week as well when the Arizona Cardinals roll into town.

Brock Purdy's first start in the NFL was nearly faultless, guiding his San Francisco 49ers to an impressive 35-7 pounding of Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.

Much was made of the matchup between Purdy – the very last pick in this year's NFL Draft – and legendary Bucs quarterback Brady, with 22-year-old Purdy being born while Brady was still playing college football for the University of Michigan.

But it was totally one-sided in favour of the rookie, as he utilised all the offensive weapons at his disposal to build a 28-0 lead at half-time.

Reigning First Team All-Pro receiver Deebo Samuel ran for a 13-yard touchdown. Purdy himself ran one in from two yards, and then the QB threw touchdowns to both Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk to cap a half he will never forget. 

Samuel's day did end on a sour note, however, with the star being carted off due to a serious-looking knee injury.

McCaffrey added his second touchdown of the game in the third quarter to finish the 49ers' scoring, posting 14 carries for 119 yards with another two catches for 34 through the air.

Purdy completed 16 of his 21 passes for 185 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with no turnovers and no sacks taken.

With the win, the 49ers are now 9-4, and while their Super Bowl dreams were hurt with the injury of Jimmy Garoppolo last week, Purdy's competence will begin to revive those hopes as they continue to lean on the best defense in the league based on opponent points per game.

Chiefs hold on for their 10th win

The Kansas City Chiefs were made to sweat in the final stages of their 34-28 win over the Denver Broncos after some uncharacteristic Patrick Mahomes turnovers.

Kansas City led 27-0 in the second quarter after a pair of Mahomes touchdown passes to Jerick McKinnon were followed by a 47-yard Willie Gay interception return for a touchdown.

An interception from Mahomes gave the Broncos a chance to score their first touchdown late in the second period, and he threw another interception from his very next drive, gifting the Broncos another score.

Jerry Jeudy's third touchdown reception of the game brought the Broncos back to within six points, and a third Mahomes interception gave the Broncos a chance, but they could not complete the unlikely comeback.

The San Francisco 49ers looked destined to contend for a Super Bowl because of their astute move to invest in a quarterback insurance policy for Trey Lance.

Now with Jimmy Garoppolo, whom they kept around after attempting to trade away, likely also on the shelf for the rest of the season with a broken foot, the NFL world is left wondering whether one of the best rosters in the league can still go deep in the postseason with rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy at quarterback.

The early signs are promising, with Purdy stepping in for Garoppolo against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 and producing a composed display in a 33-17 win that pushed the Niners' record to 8-4.

An enforced switch from Garoppolo to Purdy, the last pick in this year's draft, is an obvious downgrade, but how does it impact the 49ers' hopes of reaching the playoffs and Super Bowl?

Stats Perform can answer that question by looking at its rest-of-season (ROS) projection.

To generate the ROS predictions, every future game is projected to give a predicted win percentage for each team across its remaining games. The projections are calculated by looking at each team's quarterback and performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations as well as team values for pass protection/pass rush, skill position players/coverage defenders and run blocking/run defense.

The projected win percentages are then aggregated to produce the forecasted standings, which suggest all is not lost for the 49ers.

Still Purdy Good

Purdy was poised, decisive and accurate after replacing Garoppolo, fostering hope he can help keep the 49ers in the Super Bowl hunt despite his inexperience at the highest level.

The ROS projection does not see the Niners winning the Super Bowl, giving San Francisco less than a one per cent chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy with Purdy under center.

However, the 49ers are still given an average win total of 10.5, putting them as the third seed as NFC West champions. With the division rival Seattle Seahawks projected to win 9.76 and end the season as the sixth seed, it would set up a mouthwatering Wild Card matchup.

The 49ers have done most of the hard work in their playoff pursuit and have a dominant defense that ranks first in EVE (our Efficiency Versus Expected metric).

As such, the Niners are still likely to make the playoffs, with ROS giving them a 95 per cent shot. What happens after that is up in the air with Purdy at the helm.

Chiefs Still Reign

The Kansas City Chiefs' loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13 dropped them out of the No. 1 seed in the AFC, with the Buffalo Bills once again in control of the conference.

ROS, though, expects the Chiefs to reassume the top spot by the end of the season.

The Chiefs are given a projected average win total of 12.8, the highest in the AFC and ahead of the Bills' 12.4.

On the NFC side, ROS does not project any slip-ups from the 11-1 Philadelphia Eagles, who are predicted to win 15.1 games and finish well clear of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. The Eagles also have an NFL-best 35 per cent chance of winning the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs second at 18.8 per cent. 

If this projection is accurate, Dallas would face the prospect of playing the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in the Wild Card round despite a 12-win campaign.

A dangerous Wild Card

ROS still appears to lack belief in the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals despite a third successive win over the Chiefs.

Cincinnati are predicted to finish second in the AFC North behind the Baltimore Ravens with a projected average win total of 10.42. The margin is razor-thin, though, with the Ravens' total at 10.43.

The Bengals have just a 2.4 per cent chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the projection.

Yet with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense catching fire in recent weeks, the Bengals loom as an extremely dangerous potential Wild Card team and the projected addition of the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets to the playoffs would make for one of the most fascinating AFC postseasons in recent memory.

By contrast, the recent tie between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders is unlikely to strike fear into the heart of any NFC contenders. They will renew acquaintances in Week 15, and it is the former who is projected to ultimately win out in their battle for the seventh seed and seal a Wild Card clash with the Minnesota Vikings.

The Giants have an average projected win total of 8.3 compared to 8.2 for the Commanders as the projection suggests a losing record will be good enough for at least one team to reach the postseason.

It's crunch time in the fantasy football season.

For many leagues, this is the final week of the regular-season campaign.

By this point, the contenders have been firmly separated from the pretenders and, if you're lucky enough to be in the former category and still in the hunt for the playoffs, you need to nail your lineup every week.

Stats Perform is here to offer a helping hand, with a look at four offensive players and a defense that are excellent bets for success in Week 14 of the NFL season.

Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers

It would be understandable to be somewhat deterred by Tagovailoa's four-turnover performance in the Dolphins' defeat to the San Francisco 49ers last week.

But even in one of his worst performances of the season, Tagovailoa still threw two long touchdown passes and, on another day, several of the potential big plays he missed would have resulted in game-shifting completions.

Having faced the NFL's top defense in Week 13, Tagovailoa gets a more favourable opponent in Week 14, with a Chargers defense allowing the eighth-most yards per play (6.59) in the league sure to present plenty of opportunities for him to bounce back.

Running Back: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

It's tough to trust the Steelers offense, but things are lining up well for Harris to excel in this AFC North rivalry game.

Harris has at least 86 rushing yards in three of his last four games, which have seen him score three touchdowns.

With Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson injured, a defensive struggle in which the Steelers can lean on the run game appears likely in Pittsburgh, potentially setting Harris up for his best game of the year, if he can shake off an oblique issue.

Wide Receiver: Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams

Adams has returned to his Green Bay Packers form as the Raiders have surged back to somewhere near playoff contention.

Since Week 9, Adams leads the NFL in receiving yards per game (132.8) and receiving touchdowns (7).

On Thursday, he faces a Rams defense that is a shadow of its 2021 self without Aaron Donald. Look for his hot streak to continue in primetime.

Tight End: T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

How about a little tight end revenge game?! 

Okay, so Hockenson might not have much against the Lions after they dealt him to a Vikings team destined for the playoffs, but he is in a great spot to do significant damage against his former employers.

Hockenson has averaged eight targets per game since his Vikings debut in Week 9. Against a Lions defense allowing 402.2 total yards per game, that kind of target share could result in a huge day for the former first-round pick.

Defense/Special Teams: Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

The Kansas City defense is vulnerable to the run and last week gave up 431 yards to the Cincinnati Bengals.

But the Broncos' offense is not close to the standard of the Bengals and is averaging just 13.6 points per game. There is no concern for Kansas City's defense here.

Joe Burrow got the better of Patrick Mahomes once again and is playing at an "MVP level" according to his Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor.

The Bengals earned a 27-24 triumph over the Kansas City Chiefs at Paul Brown Stadium and moved to 8-4 for the season.

Burrow was once again influential as he moved to a perfect 3-0 in games played against quarterback rival Mahomes, whose Chiefs sit at 9-3.

The 25-year-old completed 25 of his 31 passes, including touchdown passes to Tee Higgins in the second quarter and Chris Evans in the last, with Evans' score putting the Bengals up for good.

"He's playing at an MVP level – absolutely," Taylor said. "He gives us a lot of confidence."

Burrow's outing also included running in a four-yard score and converting on a couple of third-down passes to Ja'Marr Chase and Higgins that allowed the Bengals to run down the clock.

After the game, Burrow said: "We left some points on the field, but we still find a way to win.

"We've still got five weeks left. Let's keep this train rolling. This team knows what it takes to win these games. We've been there. It's December. It's time to separate ourselves."

Wide receiver Chase missed the previous four games with a hip injury and last year's Offensive Rookie of the Year caught seven passes for 97 yards on a brilliant return.

"I was surprised at how quickly he was looking like the same Ja'Marr, even in practice last week. He's a freak," Taylor added.

Mahomes finished the game with 16 of 27 passes completed for 223 yards and a touchdown, while running in for another score.

But the Chiefs quarterback rued some costly mistakes.

"We started off slow, we got back in the game, into the flow of things and [then] we had a turnover late and a missed kick," he said.

"In the fourth quarter, those are the things that kind of bite you at the end."

The Cincinnati Bengals had strong contributions from all facets of their offense to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs 27-24 on Sunday.

In a rematch from last season's AFC Championship game – where the Bengals beat the Chiefs to advance to the Super Bowl – quarterback Joe Burrow was at his sharpest.

The 25-year-old former top overall draft pick completed 25 of his 31 passes, including touchdown passes to Tee Higgins in the second quarter and Chris Evans in the last, with Evans' score putting the Bengals up for good.

In his return from a five-game injury absence, last year's Offensive Rookie of the Year Ja'Marr Chase picked up right where he left off as Burrow's top option, catching seven passes for 97 yards, but backup running back Samaje Perine was even more influential.

Perine was used heavily in the fourth quarter as the Bengals looked to claw their way back from a deficit, with three of his six catches coming on their go-ahead touchdown drive, finishing with 49 yards through the air and another 106 on the ground from 21 carries.

It was not the best game from Chiefs quarterback and MVP favourite Patrick Mahomes, with 223 yards and one touchdown, as the Bengals committed to dropping eight defenders into coverage all game, forcing the Chiefs to accept small gains instead of their usual chunk-plays.

With the win, the Bengals are now 8-4, joining the Baltimore Ravens in a tie for the AFC North lead, while the Chiefs are three games clear atop the AFC West at 9-3.

Purdy party keeps the 49ers rolling

Brock Purdy was able to deliver a big 33-17 win for the San Francisco 49ers against the Miami Dolphins, but it came at a cost.

Purdy, the very last pick in this year's NFL Draft, was called upon when starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was carted off and ruled out during their first drive of the game. Garoppolo has been diagnosed with a broken foot, with the team saying afterwards that it will end his season.

Almost a lock for the playoffs now at 8-4 with arguably the best defense in the league, the 49ers will need Purdy to get up to speed in a hurry if they still have dreams of a Super Bowl run, and he was solid against the Dolphins, completing 25 of his 37 passes for 210 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

With just six weeks left of the regular season schedule, the drama in the NFL continues to ramp up.

The playoff picture is wide open and Week 13 action presents clashes between a number of sides who each boast a winning record this season.

Victories this week would provide a considerable boost for those teams' hopes of continuing beyond the regular campaign.

A huge divisional rivalry between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants is the pick of the action, while there is also a rematch from last season's AFC Championship game with the Kansas City Chiefs seeking redemption against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Stats Perform has delved into the numbers for those matchups along with some of Sunday's other big games.

New York Jets (7-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (9-2)

The Jets head to Minnesota with an 8-3 record against the Vikings, though have lost the last two meetings – including a 37-17 loss in the last meeting in 2018, which marked the most ever points scored by the Vikings in this series.

Defensive strength has been key for the Jets this season, with last week's 31-10 victory over the Chicago Bears being the fourth time this year where they have held their opponents to 10 or fewer points – the last time they had such a sequence was five games in 2010, which was also their last season with a trip to the playoffs.

The Jets defense will be tested against the Vikings' aerial threat, however, with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen each catching touchdown passes in the Thanksgiving win over the New England Patriots – the ninth time each player has had a receiving TD in the same game, which marks the most of any NFL teammates since Jefferson's 2020 debut.

A win against the Jets would see head coach Kevin O'Connell join Jim Caldwell and Jim Harbaugh as the only men this century to earn 10 wins in 12 or fewer games to start their career as an NFL head coach.

Washington Commanders (7-5) @ New York Giants (7-4)

A series sweep for Washington last season was the franchise's first against the Giants since 2011, leaving the Commanders looking for their first win streak of at least three games against New York since a four-game streak that ended in 2000.

Four consecutive wins on the road have seen Washington hold their opponents to 54 points total in those contests, marking the first time they have won four straight road games while allowing fewer than 60 points since 2001.

The Giants head into the contest having lost their last five against divisional opponents, standing just 1-7 in that regard over the past two seasons. That makes them just one of two teams without multiple wins in divisional games over that span (also Denver Broncos, 1-8).

Saquon Barkley remains the biggest threat for the Giants and sits just eight rushing yards short of his third 1000-yard season, where he would join Tiki Barber (6), Rodney Hampton (5) and Joe Morris (3) as the only Giants with at least three such seasons for the team.

Tennessee Titans (7-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

Philadelphia host the Titans on the back of a six-game winning run against AFC opponents dating back to last season, matching the Eagles' longest such streak in franchise history.

Last time out against the Green Bay Packers, the Eagles scored a touchdown in four of their five trips to the red zone – with Philadelphia leading the NFL in touchdown efficiency in the red zone this season, scoring in 29 of 40 trips (72.5 per cent).

Tennessee, meanwhile, have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in each of their last three games, matching their longest streak since Mike Vrabel became head coach in 2018.

In the 20-16 loss to the Bengals last time out, Derrick Henry fumbled but was it was recovered. Of the 39 players with at least 200 offensive touches since the beginning of last season, Henry, Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey are the only three to have not lost a fumble.

Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

Two meetings last season saw the Bengals win by three points in both contests, including in the AFC Championship game in Kansas City, with the Chiefs' last road win against the Bengals coming in 1984 – losing six straight since.

A 26-10 home victory against the Los Angeles Rams last week saw Travis Kelce catch his 12th touchdown pass of the season, with no other tight end having more than five this term. The largest all-time gap between a league leader and second place stands at six (Rob Gronkowski in 2011 and Antonio Gates in 2004).

The Bengals overcame the Titans 20-16 on the road last week, giving Cincinnati their first three-game winning streak of the season. Since 2018, they stand 3-34 when scoring 20 or fewer points in a game, but two of those wins have come against Tennessee.

Cincinnati have converted 78.1 per cent (25-for-32) of their third downs this season when needing fewer than four yards, the best mark in the league. However, they've also allowed opponents to convert such third downs at a 76.5 per cent rate (26-for-34), the worst record in the league.

Elsewhere…

The Miami Dolphins head to San Francisco with a 4-3 record on the road against the 49ers, the second-best such record by any team behind the Carolina Panthers (7-4).

The Los Angeles Rams host the Seattle Seahawks having won eight of the last 10 clashes between the two divisional rivals, with Seattle's last victory on the road in this matchup coming in Week 5, 2017.

An overtime victory over the Seahawks last week was the second in a row for the Las Vegas Raiders, having beaten the Denver Broncos in OT in Week 11. No NFL team has ever won three consecutive games in overtime going into the Raiders' latest battle with the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Dallas Cowboys host the Indianapolis Colts on the back of a four-game spell with at least 400 net yards, with only one longer streak in team history – running eight games in that regard in 2016.

The Los Angeles Rams are unsure if Matthew Stafford will return to their roster this season amid a physically testing season.

The quarterback has been ruled out of this weekend's clash with the Kansas City Chiefs with a strained neck, having also suffered from a concussion earlier this month.

The Super Bowl LVI winners have struggled this season, and now look as if they could be without their first-choice QB for the rest of the campaign.

According to a report from ESPN's Adam Schefter, the 3-7 Rams do not know if Stafford will feature again in a campaign that is slipping away from them, with six losses in their last seven games.

Bryce Perkins, a 2020 undrafted free agent, is expected to get his first start against the Chiefs this weekend in Stafford's absence, having replaced him during last Sunday's game with the New Orleans Saints.

If there is a potential revival, Stafford could be considered to feature for a home stretch, but otherwise is likely to be kept on the sidelines as the team lick their wounds from a tough year.

The Rams also remain without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who is expected to miss the rest of 2022 following ankle surgery.

Stafford has passed for 2,087 yards this campaign, with 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions to his name.

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.