EPL

Premier League data dive: Top three fail to win as Brighton lodge comeback and Chelsea close on Champions League

By Sports Desk May 18, 2021

Chelsea edged towards Champions League football for next season, but Leicester City's fate is now out of their hands.

The Blues gained swift vengeance for their FA Cup final defeat, running out 2-1 winners over Leicester at Stamford Bridge, meaning the Foxes are now reliant on results elsewhere as Liverpool have a game in hand to play.

Champions Manchester City surrendered a two-goal lead against Brighton and Hove Albion, meanwhile, and Edinson Cavani's stunning goal was not enough for Manchester United. Elsewhere, Leeds United defeated Southampton.

We take a look at the best facts, courtesy of Opta, from across Tuesday's Premier League games.

Manchester United 1-1 Fulham: Cavani delights Old Trafford crowd, but Cottagers hit back

United have now dropped 10 points from winning positions at Old Trafford this season – their highest ever such total at home in a Premier League season – after Joe Bryan cancelled out Cavani's sensational opener.

Cavani became only the third United player over the age of 33 to reach 10 goals in a single Premier League season, after Teddy Sheringham in 2000-01 and Zlatan Ibrahimovic in 2016-17, with a sublime 36.4-yard effort in the first half.

The Uruguay forward is the 25th different United player to reach double figures in a Premier League campaign, but it was not enough for the Red Devils as relegated Fulham gained a point from a losing position at Old Trafford for only the second time in their history in the competition, previously doing so in February 2014.

United have conceded 28 home goals in the Premier League this season – they last conceded more at Old Trafford in a single league campaign back in 1962-63 (38) – with Bryan's first top-flight goal, in his 43rd such appearance, snatching a share of the spoils.

Southampton 0-2 Leeds United: Bielsa's charge continues

There could feasibly still be a European place for Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds, who are just three points behind seventh-placed West Ham heading into the final game of the season after a 2-0 win over Southampton.

It was Leeds' 10th league win on the road this season, their best effort in a top-flight campaign since 1973-74, when they won 12 on the way to winning the title.

Southampton are without a clean sheet in their past 10 home league games (15 goals conceded) after keeping shutouts in six of the eight before that.

Patrick Bamford netted his 16th goal of the season, which is the most by a player from a promoted side since Charlie Austin scored 18 for Queens Park Rangers in 2014-15, with Tyler Roberts' maiden Premier League goal rounding off the success.

Leeds are only the second team in Premier League history to finish a campaign without a single away draw (W10 L9), after Tottenham in 2018-19.

Brighton and Hove Albion 3-2 Manchester City: Seagulls seal famous comeback

Brighton picked up their first ever Premier League victory over City, and their first in the league since 1989, as they came from two goals down to win 3-2 at the Amex Stadium.

Graham Potter's side fell behind to Ilkay Gundogan's early goal – the 10th City have scored in the opening two minutes under Pep Guardiola in the Premier League – but were buoyed by Joao Cancelo's red card.

Timed at 09:03, Cancelo's dismissal was City's second-earliest from the start of a Premier League game, after Dedryck Boyata was sent off after 04:28 against Arsenal in October 2010.

This was just the second time in Premier League history a team starting the day top of the table has led by two goals and lost, after City themselves did so against Man Utd in April 2018.

Their possession figure in this match was just 37 per cent – the lowest recorded by a side managed by Guardiola in a single top-flight match.

Phil Foden has scored 15 goals in all competitions this season. Among players in the top five European leagues currently aged under 21, only Erling Haaland (39) has scored more, but his stunning effort was not enough.

Leandro Trossard and Adam Webster pegged City back, before Dan Burn's first Brighton goal, and his first in the league for any team since April 2018, completed the turnaround.

Chelsea 2-1 Leicester City: Tuchel's team clinch Champions League qualification

After their FA Cup disappointment, Chelsea took a step towards Champions League football, getting revenge in the process.

Jorginho's penalty sealed the win, with Kelechi Iheanacho's goal ultimately proving a consolation, though the Leicester striker is the first player in Premier League history to score a goal on all seven weekdays within a single season. 

No player has scored more Premier League goals in a single campaign with 100 per cent of them coming from the penalty spot than Jorginho's seven this season (level with James Milner in 2016-17). 

Leicester have won just two of their past 30 away league games against Chelsea (D11 L17), winning 1-0 in December 2018 and 2-0 in September 2000.

And the win for Thomas Tuchel's men means that City, United and Leicester, the top three teams starting the day, all failed to win. It is the first time it has happened since January 2017 (Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea).

Related items

  • Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

  • Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds owed nearly £9million by Wrexham Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds owed nearly £9million by Wrexham

    Wrexham lost £5million in the year of their promotion to the English Football League and now owe nearly £9m to Hollywood owners Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds.

    But turnover doubled to almost £10.5m and Wrexham say financial losses suffered since McElhenney and Reynolds’ takeover in February 2021 should not be repeated due to the income now generated by the League Two club.

    “The amount owed to The RR McReynolds Company, LLC (owned by McElhenney and Reynolds) at the year-end was £8.977m (2022: £3.714m),” read a Wrexham statement.

    “The financial losses suffered by the club since the takeover shouldn’t be repeated, with income generated by the club now sufficient to meet the operational costs of the club going forward.

    “These losses were deemed necessary to allow the club to maximise its full potential in the shortest time practically possible.

    “The club is under no immediate pressure to repay these loans at the expense of the progress we seek to achieve and further financial support will be provided/secured to support the capital expenditure projects the club is currently planning, which includes increasing the capacity of The Racecourse Ground and the development of a training facility for all the club’s teams.

    “The year-on-year income comparisons since the takeover, show the potential of the club.

    “These will significantly increase again for the year ending June 30, 2024, following promotion and the continued popularity of Welcome to Wrexham.”

    Wrexham ended a 15-year absence from the EFL last April by winning the National League, while the women’s team also won promotion to the top tier of Welsh football.

    Turnover increased from £5.972m to £10.478m in the year ending June 30, 2023, but losses were up from £2.913m to £5.113m.

    Wrexham payroll rose from just over £4m to nearly £7m, offsetting increased income in retail operation, sponsorship and advertising and football revenue due to the Dragons reaching the fourth round of the FA Cup.

    The club has attracted widespread global interest following two successful seasons of the FX documentary series Welcome to Wrexham.

    Phil Parkinson’s side are chasing a second successive promotion and are currently third in League Two with seven games to play.

  • Marco Silva wants Rodrigo Muniz to relish new expectations at Fulham Marco Silva wants Rodrigo Muniz to relish new expectations at Fulham

    Marco Silva believes the pressure on Rodrigo Muniz’s shoulders is a “privilege” after the Fulham striker extended his scoring form against Tottenham.

    The Brazilian has starred for the west Londoners in recent weeks, scoring seven goals in his last seven appearances in the Premier League, including an impressive brace in the 3-0 win over Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs earlier this month.

    Muniz’s rise to become the Cottagers’ main striker comes after he struggled for minutes at the start of the season, being out of favour and sitting behind Raul Jimenez and Carlos Vinicius in the pecking order up front.

    Speaking ahead of Fulham’s clash with Sheffield United on Saturday, head coach Silva said: “The pressure is a privilege for Rodrigo’s situation.

    “He is in a much better position now than he was three months ago. Why should he feel so much pressure now? Three months ago he was on the bench and fighting to have a chance to score.

    “He’s playing so well, he’s improving and working hard and scoring goals so why should he feel so much pressure now?

    “The defenders are more aware of him and it’s fantastic for a striker when you feel the people around you trust that you can solve the problems for us and that you can be a decisive player.

    “I see it as a privilege rather than something which is not good.”

    Chris Wilder’s Blades sit bottom of the table and are looking for just a fourth league win of the season after a 2-2 draw with Bournemouth last time out snapped a three-match losing run.

    Silva warned that his players cannot afford to be complacent and expects their hosts to bring the fight at Bramall Lane.

    “If we go into the game complacent then we are going to have problems, we will be surprised,” Silva added.

    “We have to have the same ambition, focus and desire which we played the last few games with.

    “They will fight really hard to get the points and they are not in a position they wanted, bottom of the table is tough and every game where you don’t get points you are getting more in trouble.

    “They have shown the capacity to react and their last game was an example.”

    Fulham’s form of four wins in seven has seen them close the gap on teams in contention for European places and Silva insists motivation is high among his players to finish the season well.

    “We are full of motivation,” he said. “The motivation was really high against Tottenham and we felt that at Craven Cottage.

    “It is about motivation, desire, the will to go every time and the commitment. We always have to be on top and it will always be the same for us. Every time we go into a match we have to do our maximum.”

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