Having fallen short last term, both Manchester United and Tottenham started the 2024-25 season with Champions League qualification their primary aim.
However, five games into the new campaign, neither side has exactly marked themselves out as the team to beat in the race for a top-four finish.
With just seven points apiece, United and Spurs sit 11th and 10th, respectively, in the early-season standings ahead of their headline clash at Old Trafford on Sunday.
United's woes deepened as they were held to a Europa League draw by Twente on Wednesday, while Spurs eased the pressure somewhat by beating Qarabag on Thursday.
Both Erik ten Hag and Ange Postecoglou have come under pressure already this season, and should either taste defeat on their return to league action on matchday six, the criticism will only be amplified.
But what should we expect at the Theatre of Dreams, and what does the data say about both teams? Here's our Opta-powered match preview.
What's expected?
United have won 24 Premier League home games against Tottenham – only Arsenal have beaten an opponent more often at home in the competition's history (25 versus Everton).
With that in mind, it is perhaps not a surprise to see the Opta supercomputer make the Red Devils favourites, albeit not comprehensively.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, United were victorious in 41.1%, with Spurs winning 34.6% and the other 24.3% finishing level.
Tottenham are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games against the Red Devils, however, winning one and drawing two after losing four straight against them between 2021 and 2022.
Postecoglou's team twice fought back to recover a 2-2 draw when they last visited Old Trafford in January, Rodrigo Bentancur and Richarlison cancelling out goals from Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford.
United have not lost at home to Spurs since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer oversaw a dismal 6-1 defeat in October 2020, winning two and drawing one of their three home matches against them under Ten Hag.
Lack of firepower costing United
United's season to date has been defined by an inability to make the most of their chances in front of goal, and it was the same old story at Crystal Palace last week.
Ten Hag's side dominated for long periods at Selhurst Park but could not make the breakthrough, failing to take any of their five big chances and seeing their former goalkeeper Dean Henderson make seven saves for Palace in a goalless draw.
With a hamstring injury preventing Hojlund from featuring this season and Bruno Fernandes yet to open his account for 2024-25, United have too often looked toothless.
Their total expected goals (xG) figure of 9.6 for the season is the third-highest in the Premier League, behind only title contenders Manchester City (11.46) and Liverpool (10.1). However, United have only hit the net five times, giving them an xG underperformance of 4.6.
Only Southampton (two goals from 7.1 xG) have posted a larger negative differential in the competition this term, though United have also been unfortunate to face some in-form goalkeepers, with their expected goals on target (xGoT) figure only slightly lower than their xG at 9.08.
How, then, can Ten Hag get his team firing? New arrival Joshua Zirkzee led the line last week but struggled, only attempting one shot and managing three touches in the box. Zirkzee has amassed more xG (2.19) than any other United player this season, despite only starting three of their five league matches.
Marcus Rashford, who replaced him just after the hour mark, did not register a single effort at goal or a touch in the Palace area. Ten Hag's decision to drop Rashford for that match, just days after declaring the forward was getting back to his best, gave rise to rumours of a rift between the duo, which the Dutchman was forced to describe as "crazy".
Rashford appears likely to return to the lineup on Sunday, having scored six previous Premier League goals against Spurs – only against Leicester City (eight) has he netted more.
Since Postecoglou joined the club last year, only Newcastle United (53) and Brighton (47) have allowed opponents more fast breaks than Tottenham (44, level with United). In what could be an open, watchable affair, Rashford may have a major role to play.
Ange targets end to away-day struggles
Tottenham responded to back-to-back Premier League defeats with a much-needed 3-1 victory over Brentford last week, with Dominic Solanke, Brennan Johnson and James Maddison netting after Bryan Mbeumo opened the scoring within 23 seconds.
Since the start of last season, only Man City (31) have gained more points from losing positions in the Premier League than Spurs' 28. It is just as well that Postecoglou's men showed their powers of recovery in that game, with rumblings of discontent starting to emerge in the early weeks of the season.
Postecoglou's team needed another fightback to beat Coventry City in the EFL Cup just a few days earlier, after which he said there would be no "easy or quick fix" to make Spurs competitive at the top level.
The Australian is determined to make the "Spursy" tag a thing of the past, but their soft underbelly has continually cost them on the road since he took charge.
They took 14 points from their first six away Premier League games under Postecoglou (four wins, two draws), only to garner just 14 from their next 15 on the road (three wins, five draws, seven defeats).
Among ever-present Premier League teams across the last two seasons, no side has won fewer away games since the start of November 2023 than Spurs (three), with Bournemouth (24), Nottingham Forest (19) and Crystal Palace (15) among the clubs to better their 14 away points won in that span, a figure that puts them level with Everton.
If Tottenham are to contend for a top-four place or better, they simply must improve their away form, starting with Sunday's clash with a direct rival.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes
United captain Bruno Fernandes has had more shots without scoring than any other Premier League player this season (17). Meanwhile, only Southampton's Cameron Archer (2.3) and Bournemouth's Evanilson (2) have amassed a higher xG figure without finding the net so far than Fernandes (1.9).
The Portugal international has, however, been involved in at least nine more attacking sequences (30 – 17 shots, six chances created, seven build-ups to a shot) than any of his team-mates this term (Diogo Dalot is second with 21).
Tottenham – Son Heung-min
Son's involvement in this game has been called into question after appearing to suffer an injury against Qarabag, but Postecoglou was understandably quick to play it down.
The South Korean is likely to be key, having created more chances from open play than any other player in the Premier League this season (13).
Son has also had a hand in five goals in his last seven league appearances against Manchester United, scoring four and assisting one.
Austin FC v Real Salt Lake: Wolff looking for solutions to lack of goals
Josh Wolff remains optimistic that Austin FC can improve on their play in the final third when they face Real Salt Lake in MLS on Saturday.
Wolff is under some pressure with Austin failing to win any of their last four league matches, scoring just two goals in that run.
They still have an outside chance of making the playoffs, currently sitting 11th in the Western Conference, but the head coach knows that will not happen if they do not score.
"The main thing is you've got to go out and win the next game," Wolff told reporters.
"We've got to have the same ideas that we've had and the same performances that we've had, we've just got to take our opportunities.
"I keep echoing that we've been one of the better-performing teams at both ends, but it's all for nought if we can't score goals and win games and that's the only part that's been lacking."
Meanwhile, RSL booked their place in the playoffs last weekend after a 3-3 draw with Portland Timbers, and currently sit second in the table.
That is partly down to their impressive home form, as they have failed to win their last four on the road.
With that in mind, head coach Pablo Mastroeni is still targeting improvements, especially in defense.
"The last two performances were spirited, were gritty," said Mastroeni, "and that comes from the players' mindset.
"This group is really coming into its own at the right time, and now we just have to minimize silly situations that we have complete control over.
"In the last two games we've given up three poor set pieces. What can we do more in those moments and in training? Life doesn't tell you when you're at risk."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Austin FC – Diego Rubio
Diego Rubio has scored six career goals against Salt Lake (incl. playoffs), tied for his most against any MLS opponent (also vs. Houston Dynamo & Minnesota United).
Only Jesus Ferreira (eight) and Sebastian Blanco (seven) have scored more against RSL since Rubio made his MLS debut in 2016.
Real Salt Lake – Cristian Arango
Cristian Arango has scored six career goals against Austin (incl. playoffs), tied for his most against any MLS opponent (also vs. FC Dallas & LA Galaxy).
No player has scored more than six goals against Austin in MLS play (regular season and playoffs).
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Real Salt Lake have won back-to-back meetings with Austin, including a 5-1 victory when the sides met in Sandy on June 1. This is the first two-match winning streak by either team over the other.
However, RSL have lost four of their last five away matches in all competitions (D1), including the last three in a row. Salt Lake had lost only three of their previous 17 on the road in all competitions (W6 D8) prior to this run.
And Austin have struggled in recent home games, losing back-to-back matches after losing just two of their previous 14 matches at Q2 Stadium in all competitions (W8 D4). Austin have failed to score in two straight at home for the first time since July 2021 (three straight).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Austin FC – 37.4%
Draw – 26.4%
Real Salt Lake – 36.2%
Leverkusen must be perfect in Bayern clash, Alonso warns
Bayer Leverkusen will need a perfect performance if they are to earn a result against Bundesliga title rivals Bayern Munich on Saturday, according to Xabi Alonso.
Leverkusen became the first team to go unbeaten through a Bundesliga campaign as they clinched their first title last season, ending Bayern's 11-year reign in the German top flight.
Bayern are determined to bounce back under new boss Vincent Kompany, though, and they sit three points clear of Leverkusen ahead of the teams' huge meeting at the Allianz Arena.
With four wins from four games and a goal difference of +13 (16 scored, three conceded), they have made the joint-best start to a season in Bundesliga history – only Bayern themselves in 2016-17 and Stuttgart in 1996-97 have matched that record.
Alonso is expecting a huge challenge against his former club, telling reporters: "The anticipation is great and we want to show a good game.
"We need a perfect performance to take something home with us. FC Bayern have made a good start to the season, it will be a challenge tomorrow.
"We need to play at our highest level, with and against the ball for 90 minutes. Bayern will go full throttle, we have to be ready for that."
Leverkusen have already conceded nine goals in the Bundesliga this term, the most they have allowed at this stage of a season since 2014-15 (also nine).
The last reigning champions to ship nine goals in their first four games of a campaign were Kaiserslautern in 1998-99, while the last holders to concede more were Bayern in 1974-75 (11).
After a rollercoaster 4-3 win over Wolfsburg last time out, Alonso is desperate to see his team tighten up at the back.
"The team has to be compact, we have to defend together as a team. We have a clear gameplan, we can't be too soft and we can't allow large gaps," Alonso said.
"We have a clear gameplan as to how we want to play. We will give everything... If we don't defend well, it's hard for the players to win. We want to be consistent. We don't want to be up and down."
Following their trip to Bayern, Leverkusen host Italian giants AC Milan in the Champions League on Tuesday.
Kompany: Bayern relishing tough Leverkusen test
Vincent Kompany says Bayern Munich are relishing the prospect of facing champions Bayer Leverkusen as they look to re-assert themselves as top dogs in the Bundesliga.
Bayern have won all six of their matches in all competitions under Kompany, scoring 20 goals in their last three games, and sit top of the Bundesliga with a 100% record.
On Saturday, they host second-placed Leverkusen, who last season became the first team to finish a Bundesliga campaign unbeaten and lifted the trophy to end Bayern's run of 11 straight titles.
"It's good that everyone's excited about the game," Kompany told reporters.
"Obviously, it'll be an important game, against the best team from the last 12 months. We're looking forward to the game. It won't be easy.
"We want to test ourselves against a good opponent at the Allianz Arena. Bayern are always the favourites. We're looking forward to playing against the champions and want to win.
"The next game is what counts in football. If you've performed well, you need to keep going.
"We've scored 20 goals in the last three games, but it's my job to show what we can do better. Anything is possible in a game like against Leverkusen. We'll prepare the team to perform to their max on Saturday. Then we move on."
While Bayern's attack has made headlines in recent weeks, their early-season success has also been founded on defensive solidity, with two clean sheets in their four league matches.
In their 5-0 win over Werder Bremen last week, Bayern did not allow their opponents to record a single shot. Bremen also had just 10 touches in the opposition box and entered the final third just 29 times across the 90 minutes.
Kompany hailed the team's collective defensive effort, adding: "We didn't allow a single chance against Bremen. That's not just down to the defence.
"We need to do everything as a team. We've done that very well in the last few games. I have a lot of trust in the squad."
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