Manchester United's record against the so-called 'big six' of the Premier League this season reads zero wins, two defeats and two draws.
They have conceded seven goals, six of them at home to Tottenham, and scored just once – a Bruno Fernandes penalty two minutes into that 6-1 hammering in October.
Fernandes scored their previous goal in these encounters from the spot, too, in a 1-1 draw at Spurs last June. In fact, you have to go back to March 2020 and their 2-0 win at home to Manchester City, the last Old Trafford game played in front of a crowd, for the previous occasion that they scored a goal against a big-six team that wasn't a penalty.
They might be top of the league heading into Sunday's showdown with Liverpool but, for a manager that made an early habit of extracting big performances against the best sides, that stat should be of serious concern to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
BIG ZERO SIX
Since the end of the 2019-20 shutdown, United have played seven games against the big six and won none of them, if you include domestic cup losses to Chelsea and City.
In league football alone, they have drawn against Tottenham, Chelsea and City and lost to Spurs and Arsenal, with just two Fernandes penalties to show for it. All their previous three such games were at home and they have not scored in any of them.
In their first 14 league games against these sides under Solskjaer, United won six times and lost only four, scoring 16 goals and conceding 13 – a decent record given their real problems with consistency.
The strange thing is United's winless run against the best has coincided with a general upturn in form since the previous season restarted last June. Taking only results in that time into account, United have played 26, won 17, lost just three, scored 56 goals and conceded 30. That's the best record of any side in the league and seven points better than Liverpool.
In fact, narrow that down to results against teams in the top half of the table in the same time frame, and United have lost the fewest games (two) of any side, with 21 points taken from 13 games, just three behind Jurgen Klopp's side.
So, why the recent drop-off against the very best?
Solskjaer's most dependable attacking weapons have been Fernandes, Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford, all three of whom will almost certainly start at Liverpool, barring injury.
They were all involved in their last big-six contest in the league, a 0-0 draw at home to City in December. Rashford managed only one shot all game and created no chances for anyone else; Martial, a late substitute, created one chance but had no shots himself. Fernandes, ever the fulcrum of United's attack, had four shots and created two chances.
The previous game was a staid goalless draw with Chelsea that made the derby look positively thrill-a-minute. That day, with Martial banned, Rashford was more involved, with three attempts at goal and two chances created; he was outdone by Fernandes (three shots, four chances created).
They don't exactly look like imperious figures, but they actually fall in line with their per-90-minute numbers for this season. On average, Rashford attempts 2.7 shots per game and creates 1.3 chances; Martial has 2.9 shots and creates 1.2 chances; Fernandes musters 3.6 shots and creates 3.4 chances.
Put succinctly, based on this season's performances, Fernandes should be expected to create between three and four goalscoring opportunities in every league game he starts for United. In other words, he was bang on his average against City and Chelsea. Rashford's numbers are similarly close to the mean.
United's best attackers, then, are keeping their performance levels consistent against the big six. They're just meeting greater resistance. That becomes clearer looking at expected goals.
In their most recent three league games against these sides, United have had xG of 0.6 against City, 0.7 against Chelsea and a lowly 0.4 in a 1-0 loss to Arsenal. In those same fixtures in 2019-20, those figures were 1.6 (in a 2-0 win against City), 2.2 (in a 4-0 win over Chelsea) and 0.9 (in a 1-1 draw with Arsenal). Interestingly, though, Chelsea and Arsenal had higher xG numbers in those games last season, even though they suffered worse results, and City's only increased this term by 0.7.
This reflects a general balancing out in these matches. They are, for the most part, more attritional and less unpredictable affairs settled by fine margins – exactly the sort of contest you'd expect between true heavyweights. United are not significantly under-performing each time; they're just not quite tilting the odds in their favour.
How, then, might they change that against Liverpool? There is one simple way.
SLAB EXPERIMENT
United have one particular weakness, regardless of opposition: set-pieces. This season, they have conceded 11 goals from set-plays; only Wolves (12), Brighton and Hove Albion (14) and Leeds United (16) have a worse record. They have shipped four goals from corners, the same number as Liverpool, but the champions have only conceded eight times from dead-ball situations overall.
At the other end, United have scored 10 goals from set-pieces, a tally bettered by just four teams: Aston Villa and Southampton (11), and Chelsea and Liverpool (12). Only Chelsea (34) have created more dead-ball chances than United (31).
There is an argument to say they should have more set-piece goals than anyone else. It's an argument that centres around their captain – the man who might be the very thing United need to get back to scoring against, and winning against, big-six opposition.
Since the start of last season, Harry Maguire has won 73 per cent of his aerial duels in the Premier League. That's the best rate of anyone who has contested at least 300 in that time. In fact, he has lost only 98 of the 341 he has been involved in, which is the lowest number of losses across the same period within that elite group.
However, in an attacking sense, the world's most expensive defender doesn't seem to have his head on straight. Since the start of 2019-20, he has attempted 27 headed shots, hit the target with just nine of them, and scored with two. Of players with at least 20 headed shots in that time, only four have hit the target less often.
On Sunday, Maguire will face a Liverpool side without Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez and possibly Joel Matip. He will rarely have a better chance of stealing a march at set-plays and, if he does, he could well end United's wait for a goal – and a win – against the best. Sometimes, those fine margins are the width of a forehead.
Gary Neville dismisses ‘nonsense’ idea of sacking Man Utd boss Erik ten Hag
Former Manchester United captain Gary Neville has said the idea of the club sacking boss Erik ten Hag is “absolute nonsense”.
United suffered their 11th defeat of the season in all competitions, and seventh in the Premier League, on Saturday as they crashed to a 3-0 home loss to Bournemouth.
Neville says there is “no way” Ten Hag should be sacked this term and pointed the finger at United’s owners the Glazer family.
Speaking to Sky Sports, Neville said of Ten Hag: “I fear for him generally, not really just because of this week (when United play Bayern Munich and Liverpool). Just more generally around the way in which a cycle is repeating itself again.
“I hope that somehow Erik ten Hag can turn it around this season and that ultimately he can improve what’s happening at the moment – or else he will be in trouble, it’s just inevitable. We’ve seen it with (previous United managers) Ole (Gunnar Solskjaer), Jose (Mourinho) and Louis van Gaal.
“There’s no way they should change him this season, this idea of sacking him is absolute nonsense. I wouldn’t be in favour of that.
“The lack of leadership and structure above him…I know people say you can’t blame the Glazers – yeah you can. You can because 10 years of failure, of miserable recruitment comes down to the fact they have not got a sporting director, a proper head of recruitment in place.
“That is why this happens. Ultimately managers look above them and think ‘I haven’t got anyone there to help me so I might as well just try and do it myself’.
“This is all down to the leadership. If it happened once, fair enough, if it happened twice you would ask a question, but this is five times, five times in 10 years.”
It is expected that Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s purchase of 25 per cent stake at the Old Trafford club will be announced soon, with him acquiring significant control over footballing operations.
Neville added: “He has got to come in and sort this out, and you wonder how he is going to be able to pull it out of it, that’s the concern I have.
“What we need is a change of structure at the top, that will hopefully happen in the next few weeks, hopefully that will change the way in which the sporting project is looked at because you can’t come in and leave everything as is.
“And maybe, with some leadership and structure around the club, Manchester United could have some sort of ability to cope with the other clubs who recruit a lot better and do business a lot better.”
Bruno Fernandes apologises for ‘unacceptable’ Manchester United display
Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes has apologised for an unacceptable performance against Bournemouth lacking the requisite quality, effort and aggression.
Erik ten Hag won the Carabao Cup during a promising first season in charge but the Dutchman’s second campaign has been a roller coaster with more lows than highs.
United’s season reached a nadir on Saturday afternoon as Bournemouth won at Old Trafford for the first time in their history, with the hosts fortunate to escape with only a 3-0 defeat.
It was a remarkable drop-off from Wednesday’s 2-1 win against Chelsea and led exasperated Ten Hag to admit they are not good enough to play on a high level consistently.
“(I want) to apologise for the performance,” skipper Fernandes said. “It was not acceptable, starting on me. I’m not talking about anyone else.
“But I think everyone agrees in the dressing room that the performance was (not) at our level and we have to perform much better.
“It was underperforming on quality-wise, on effort-wise and not aggressive as we did in the last game against Chelsea.
“If you don’t do your job, you’re not going to win the game.”
Similar words and explanations have been heard during a challenging season that has seen United lose 11 of their 23 matches in all competitions.
They have won 11 and drawn the other, but the eye-watering number of defeats means pressure is mounting on Ten Hag and his team.
“I don’t know (why it was so different to Chelsea) but it’s been consistently like (this),” Fernandes told MUTV. “When we win a game, the next one we don’t perform in the same way we did before.
“I don’t know if it’s like a lack of concentration or focus or something else, but it’s something that we have to be aware that after winning a game we have to get that consistency of winning games.
“Even sometimes (if we are) underperforming but getting the result.”
United now need to press reset and find the right attitude to avoid being sent into a tailspin at the end of a crucial week.
First up comes Tuesday’s key Champions League clash against Bayern Munich, with the Red Devils only progressing if they win and the other Group A game between Copenhagen and Galatasaray ends in a draw.
Then comes a Premier League trip to rivals Liverpool next Sunday – a match Fernandes will miss after collecting his fifth booking of the season against Bournemouth.
“Obviously it’s good (that we play soon),” Fernandes said. “Obviously we know that now the next game is going to be really tough.
“We have to win and obviously wait for a good result on the other game for us.
“But we have to do our job first of all, and thinking and understanding that is going to be a tough game for us.
“But we are capable, more than able, to get the result.”
While United’s problems are pored over in minute detail, things are looking far rosier on the south coast.
Summer appointment Andoni Iraola has overseen a superb upturn in recent weeks at Bournemouth.
Dominic Solanke, Philip Billing and Marcos Senesi scored the goals in a match that goes down as one of the Cherries’ greatest ever results.
Asked where the win rated in the club’s recent history, long-serving right-back Adam Smith told BBC Radio Solent: “I’d say it’s number one.
“I mean, it’s the Theatre of Dreams and we had never won here. It was tough at times and we suffered. But we were playing Manchester United.
“I think the lads will remember it for a long time. We kept a clean sheet and it probably should have maybe have been 4-0. It was unbelievable for the fans.”
Mat Sadler says Walsall showed what a ‘fantastic’ team they are at Notts County
Walsall boss Mat Sadler was thrilled with his team’s display after his side came from a goal down to win 2-1 at promotion hopefuls Notts County.
Oisin McEntee’s emphatic second-half brace cancelled out Aden Baldwin’s first goal of the campaign and ended the Saddlers’ six-game winless run.
Sadler said: “We are a good team, a very good team playing against what I also think is a very good team too with the way Luke (Williams) plays and the way he sets the team up. They take apart teams here, but we showed what a fantastic team we are and by team, I mean everybody together.
“The first half we go in 1-0 down but I said to the lads that I thought we controlled the game out of possession – the only thing missing in the first half was just that final piece of quality at times, but I knew we could hurt them as the game went on and the lads believed we could hurt them as the game went on.
“I gave the players a few minutes to speak to themselves, I always do. You get a vibe from what they are saying but, in the end, we got what we deserved.”
“The most important players in our game were going to be our two eights and outside centre-halves…and then Oisin (McEntee) pops up with the two goals which were thoroughly deserved. We know he has got goals in his game.”
As for the Magpies, another cold afternoon turned into an evening to forget as they fell to their third home league defeat of the season, and their fourth of the calendar year.
Williams said: “The conditions were not a problem, it was more the lack of energy. And we did not have the bravery to play with the ball in the second half.
“If we are not going to be great defensively, and we are then not going to outscore the opposition, I am not sure what we are going to do.
“The first half was really cagey, but we made a breakthrough. The second half, I did not even recognise the team.
“I want to win. It is no good to just be here when the team are winning every week. I need to be here and try to help them, try to remain focused on the job, so that we can try to come through on the other side of it.
“We are new to the division. We are learning the opposition and we have stuttered. We cannot seem to find a consistency so we need to find a decent level and be able to maintain that.”
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