In the 2022 NFL season, there have been few stories as remarkable as that of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who heads into the postseason with a golden opportunity to become the first rookie quarterback to lead a team to Super Bowl glory.

Purdy has been a revelation since being thrust into the spotlight as the starting quarterback in the wake of the fractured foot suffered by Jimmy Garoppolo in the Week 13 win over the Miami Dolphins.

This was supposed to be Trey Lance's team in 2022, but with the third overall pick in 2021 removed from the equation with a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2, there are pertinent questions asking if it is now Purdy's for the long term, and they are merited given how he has performed in an extraordinary start to his career.

Belying his status as the last pick in the 2022 draft, Purdy has confidently piloted one of the best offenses in football, with the 49ers averaging a league-leading 33.6 points per game since he became the full-time starter.

In addition to Purdy ensuring the 49ers beat the Dolphins following Garoppolo's first-quarter departure, he has since won each of his first five starts, helping the NFC West champion Niners finish the regular season on a 10-game winning streak.

With the 49ers' win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 18, in which he threw three touchdowns, Purdy became the third rookie quarterback to win his first five starts, following Ben Roethlisberger (won first 13 starts in 2004) and Mike Kruczek (first six in 1968).

He is the third player in NFL history with at least two touchdown passes in each of his first five starts, joining Dan Marino and Billy Volek, while he is only the second rookie with at least two touchdown throws in six consecutive games. The other was Justin Herbert in 2020.

Purdy's passer rating over his first five starts of 119.0 is second only to Kurt Warner (131.4) in 1999. Though Warner was not a rookie, he went on to lead the St. Louis Rams to a Super Bowl title, winning Super Bowl MVP in the process.

The support system for Purdy as he looks to make league history is excellent. San Francisco's offense is stacked with playmakers, with the addition of Christian McCaffrey to a group that already included Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle having a transformative impact on Kyle Shanahan's attack.

San Francisco's plethora of weaponry is a significant reason why Purdy went into Week 18 ranked fourth among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in expected passing situations in Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE). Prior to the blowout of the Cardinals, Purdy was averaging 1.47 yards over expected in anticipated passing situations.

With a defense led by Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Nick Bosa establishing itself as the NFL's best, the 49ers went into Week 18 ranked first overall in EVE.

By that measure, the 49ers are the best team in the NFL, but history is firmly against Purdy having success in his quest to guide them to a sixth Lombardi Trophy in franchise history.

Nineteen rookies have started in the playoffs in the Super Bowl era, posting a 9-19 record across 28 games.

While no rookie quarterback has lifted the Lombardi, the performances of a selection of those to have entered the heat of the postseason battle in their first season offer a glimpse into what may lie ahead for Purdy, as he prepares to start his playoff career against the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday.

Ben Roethlisberger (2004)

Roethlisberger may be the best parallel we can draw for Purdy given their shared place in the NFL history books.

The Pittsburgh Steelers great enjoyed an entirely different draft experience in 2004, playing the role of frustrated spectator until the 11th pick as the famous Eli Manning-Philip Rivers saga took its course.

Roethlisberger made the San Diego Chargers and New York Giants initially look foolish for not valuing him higher, helping a juggernaut Steelers team to a 15-1 record and the number one seed in the AFC.

Yet his first postseason proved a difficult one for Big Ben, with Roethlisberger completing only 57.4 per cent of his passes for 407 yards, three touchdowns and five interceptions, recording a passer rating of 61.3.

Three of his five picks came in the AFC Championship Game loss to the New England Patriots, whose opportunistic defensive performance inspired them to a third Super Bowl appearance – and ultimately a third Super Bowl title – in four seasons.

Purdy has the benefit of having the league's premier defense on his side, and the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles would appear to be the only team in the 49ers' way who possess the capability to pose him problems akin to those Roethlisberger experienced back in January 2005.

The NFL has changed significantly since Bill Belichick's defense denied Roethlisberger a chance at history, but the Steelers' Conference Championship game woes of 18 years ago are a scarcely needed reminder of the value of protecting the football.

Purdy, who has 13 touchdowns to four interceptions, has done a largely impressive job in that sense, and if he continues in the same manner, the 49ers will be excellently positioned for a deep run. If the Niners do fall short, Purdy may take heart from Roethlisberger's second season, which saw him lead the Steelers to victory in Super Bowl XL against the Seattle Seahawks.

Joe Flacco (2008) & Mark Sanchez (2009)

Flacco and Sanchez are also decent examples that could be a guide to how Purdy's playoff journey may go.

Unlike Purdy, they were both highly drafted quarterbacks, but they are comparable in that they had the benefit of supporting casts built for January success. Both made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game.

Flacco did not have to do much to get to that point with the 2008 Baltimore Ravens. Across his three postseason games, Flacco completed just 44 per cent of his passes for 437 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions, giving him a passer rating of just 50.8.

Yet the Ravens were able to succeed by leaning on a third-ranked defense and a fourth-ranked run game, taking the pressure off Flacco. Indeed, Baltimore gave up just 19 points across the first two rounds of the playoffs. It was only when the Ravens faced a top-ranked Pittsburgh Steelers defense in the title game that Flacco's shortcomings as a rookie proved decisive.

A year later, Sanchez fared better with the New York Jets, hitting on just over 60 per cent of his passes for 539 yards, four touchdowns and a pair of picks, posting a passer rating of 92.7.

Though his numbers were better, the formula was the same, the Jets riding Rex Ryan's dominant defense and a ground attack that led the NFL in yards per game to the Conference Championship.

Flacco went on to enjoy one of the great postseason runs in the 2012 season in leading the Ravens to glory, beating the 49ers in the Super Bowl, but Purdy will have designs on comfortably surpassing Sanchez's achievements following the electric start to his career.

He has thrived throwing the ball to the intermediate area of the field. On throws between 10 and 20 yards, Purdy has a delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball 83.7 per cent of the time. That is second only to Andy Dalton (85.6) among quarterbacks with at least 20 such attempts.

But with McCaffrey, Samuel and Elijah Mitchell giving the 49ers arguably the most versatile backfield in the NFL, one in which both McCaffrey and Samuel are threats to run the ball, catch it out of the backfield or line up in the formation as a receiver, San Francisco can significantly ease the pressure on Purdy by leaning on the ground game and short checkdown throws that always have the potential to be turned into big plays.

On top of that, the defense, which finished the season with the second-best success rate (35.9 per cent) in the league, has consistently shown its ability to put the team on its back despite some signs of vulnerability in recent weeks.

Purdy's early success points to him having a career superior to that of Flacco and Sanchez, but the 49ers could manage him in much similar fashion to how they were handled in the playoffs in his first postseason experience.

Russell Wilson (2012)

One of the best rookie quarterback performances in the playoffs came from a player who was previously the thorn in the 49ers' side with the Seahawks.

Wilson won the Super Bowl in only his second season, but the groundwork for that run was laid during a superb rookie year.

The Seahawks star was excellent in his first postseason, completing 62.9 per cent of his passes for 572 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. He posted a passer rating of 102.4, leading the Seahawks to a win over Washington at FedEx Field in the Wild Card round before falling short against the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional round.

Wilson had the benefit of a full regular season under his belt and was a better athlete than Purdy is at that point in his career.

Yet the 49ers will hope the repetitions Purdy has to his name in calmly leading them through the stretch run will be enough for him to perform at a level akin to that of Wilson, albeit with expectations of significantly better results.

Cautionary tales

As the overall record indicates, starting a rookie quarterback in the playoffs typically ends badly. Matt Ryan threw two interceptions in his postseason debut in 2008 and Dalton was picked off three times as he and the Cincinnati Bengals suffered Wild Card round heartache in 2011. Andrew Luck led the Colts to the playoffs in 2012, but his postseason bow saw him post a passer rating of just 59.8.

Robert Griffin III's sole playoff appearance in 2012 ended in a knee injury as he was beaten by Wilson and the Seahawks in a battle of the rookies, while in 2018 Lamar Jackson was confounded by a Los Angeles Chargers defense that frequently deployed seven defensive backs to hold the dual-threat in check and restrict him to a completion percentage of 48.3.

Mac Jones was the last rookie to start a playoff game, doing so last January, but was intercepted twice in trying in vain to help to the Patriots keep up with a Buffalo Bills team that blew them away 47-17.

Even if Purdy maintains his stellar level of play, there is a chance that, in the lottery of the postseason, it still may not be enough.

Indeed, Dak Prescott threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns for the Dallas Cowboys in his playoff debut in the 2016 Divisional round and still came up short as he was outdueled by Aaron Rodgers in a 34-31 thriller.

That game serves as a perfect illustration as to why the playoffs are a different animal. The stakes go up, and the standard can also rise to a point where a player's best is often not good enough. In a Wild Card game against a Seahawks team he had little issue beating in the regular season, it will soon become apparent whether Purdy has what it takes to give this Cinderella quarterback story a fairytale ending.

Gareth Bale announced his retirement on Monday, bringing an end to a trophy-laden and eventful career spanning 17 seasons.

Southampton product Bale made a name for himself at Tottenham, but it was in nine years at Real Madrid he truly rose to stardom – although he had a turbulent time in the Spanish capital.

Despite playing starring roles in two Champions League finals and winning 16 trophies, Bale's time in Madrid turned sour long before he departed last June.

The versatile attacker famously paraded with a banner that read "Wales. Golf. Madrid. In that order" in 2019 and that understandably did not go down well with Los Blancos fans.

Playing time continued to be limited at Los Angeles FC, but Bale scored an extra-time leveller in the MLS Cup final against Philadelphia Union, which his side won on penalties.

Yet for all his success at club level, it was arguably with Wales that Bale enjoyed his proudest moments, not least reaching the semi-finals of Euro 2016.

Bale also played a huge part in ending Wales' 64-year wait to qualify for the World Cup last year, with their group defeat to England proving to be his final game as a professional.

As the curtain comes down on Bale's playing days at the age of just 33, Stats Perform breaks down the numbers from a remarkable career.

Bale played 664 matches for club and country and scored 226 goals, the majority of those unsurprisingly coming for Madrid (106).

He also netted 41 times in 111 games for Wales, becoming his country's record goalscorer and cap holder in the process.

The Cardiff-born forward also netted five goals for Southampton and three for LAFC at either end of his career, while bagging 71 in 237 matches for Tottenham.

It was his superb form for Spurs, particularly in the 2012-13 season, that saw Bale make a then-record €100.8million (£85.1m) switch to Madrid.

That would prove to be Bale's best season in terms of goals as he netted 21, nine of those from outside the box in the Premier League – a single-season record that still stands.

Add his four assists into the mix and only Robin van Persie (35) and Luis Suarez (28) played a direct part in more goals than Bale's 25 during that campaign.

As impressive as Bale was for Spurs, though, he did not have any silverware to show for it. That would all soon change at the Santiago Bernabeu.

He is the only player to score a match-winning goal in two Champions League finals, doing so in 2013-14 against Atletico Madrid and in 2017-18 to break Liverpool's hearts.

Bale scored twice against Liverpool, aided by a horror shown from Loris Karius, making him the first substitute to score more than once in a single Champions League final.

Those three combined final goals are second only to Cristiano Ronaldo (four), who it is fair to say will be far better remembered by Madrid supporters than Bale.

While his part in some of Madrid's triumphs in more recent seasons was limited, Bale does at least deserve his place in club folklore.

His 258 appearances for Los Blancos are more than the likes of Luis Figo (245) and Zinedine Zidane (227) made, and just short of the great Ferenc Puskas' tally of 262.

Furthermore, Bale is one of only 22 players in Madrid's esteemed history to have reach the 100-goal mark, his 106 strikes more than Brazil legend Ronaldo (104) managed.

When Fernando Santos called time on his eight-year stint as Portugal head coach after their 2022 World Cup quarter-final elimination, few would have correctly predicted his replacement.

Roberto Martinez also left his national team role after the tournament in Qatar, with Belgium disappointingly falling at the group stage.

The former Everton and Wigan Athletic boss took the Red Devils to the World Cup semi-finals in 2018, before reaching the last eight of Euro 2020, being eliminated by the eventual winners in both.

Martinez finds himself in charge of A Selecao now after his appointment was confirmed on Monday, and there is plenty of work to be done.

Qualifiers for the 2024 European Championships get underway in March and with the talent at their disposal, Portugal must be fancied to be among the favourites for the tournament in Germany.

Stats Perform has taken a look at five things in Martinez's in-tray that he will need to consider if he is to find success with his new team.

Solve the Ronaldo conundrum

"Decisions have to be made on the pitch. I won't rush into decisions. I want to meet everyone, and from today I want to talk and meet all the players," Martinez said at his first press conference as Portugal coach.

"Cristiano [Ronaldo] is part of that list. He's had 19 years in the national team and deserves respect, let's talk. From there, it's up to me to make the best list for the European Championships."

Ronaldo has 118 goals in 196 caps for Portugal, undeniably an international record to be proud of, but he will be 38 years old when Martinez takes charge of his first game.

One of the new boss' biggest issues with Belgium was getting the best out of ageing stars, and with Portugal arguably looking far sharper when Ronaldo was benched in Qatar – hat-trick hero v Switzerland Goncalo Ramos in particular – perhaps now is the perfect time to allow the former Real Madrid and Juventus man to fully focus on his new adventure in Saudi Arabia and call time on his international career.

Getting the best out of Joao Felix

This is a problem Atletico Madrid boss Diego Simeone is all too familiar with, hence why Joao Felix is being linked with a loan move to the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal instead of lighting up LaLiga on a weekly basis.

The 23-year-old has plenty of talent, but a lack of consistency belies the nine-figure fee Atletico paid Benfica for him back in 2019.

If Martinez chooses to move on from Ronaldo though, Joao Felix could find the space and responsibility to thrive at international level as part of a team where everyone would be expected to chip in.

Of players to have featured in at least 14 LaLiga games this season, only Mikel Merino, Antoine Griezmann, Ansu Fati and Ousmane Dembele average more than Joao Felix's 0.42 assists per 90.

Utilise Dias to build solid foundation

Arguably Martinez's main struggle by the end of his time with Belgium was managing a defence filled with players who were several years past their prime.

He will need to make sure that Portugal maintain freshness there as a good defence will always give you a chance in international competitions, such as when Portugal conceded just once in four knockout games on their way to winning Euro 2016.

One key decision could be taken out of his hands, with Pepe expected to announce his retirement from international football, but in Ruben Dias, Martinez has the perfect figure to build his defence around.

The Manchester City centre-back is one of the best in Europe and has shown under Pep Guardiola he can also be relied upon in a backline that pushes high to close space and allow the attack to press from the front, something Martinez has often favoured when he has had the tools to do so.

Build around Bruno

Since his move to Man Utd in January 2020, Bruno Fernandes has proven himself to be one of the premier midfielders in Europe, and at the World Cup, he began to show that he can lead for his national team as well.

Only Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi (both 10) had more goal involvements than Fernandes' five (two goals, three assists) in Qatar, while no-one produced more than his three assists.

In the Premier League this season, only Kevin De Bruyne (41) has created more chances from open play than his 40, with the Manchester City man having played a game more, and with plenty of attacking firepower to aim for with Portugal, Fernandes can in theory fill his assist boots over the coming years under Martinez.

Make the most of Leao

One of those talents Fernandes should be working with is Rafael Leao, one of the most exciting attackers in Europe right now.

While Santos had plenty of other fine players to choose from, it was surprising to see Leao reduced to just substitute appearances in all five games at the World Cup, though he still produced two goals before Portugal were eventually eliminated by Morocco in the quarter-finals.

The Milan forward should really be Martinez's primary weapon on the left of the attack, especially if he can replicate the form that saw him win Serie A's player of the season award as the Rossoneri claimed the Scudetto in 2021-22.

The 2022 World Cup was unique for many reasons.

It was the first World Cup to be played in the Middle East, and the first one to take place in the middle of the season, as far as Europe's top clubs are concerned.

One thing that did not change, of course, was players being able to use the tournament as a platform to show what they can do on the biggest stage, and perhaps get big moves on the back of it.

While Josko Gvardiol, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister and Jude Bellingham are among the players to possibly fall into that category, Antoine Griezmann is different.

Griezmann is not the youngster making his name, but he did shine in Qatar as, in the space of seven games, he arguably redefined his own position.

That is not to say Griezmann had not been impressive this season prior to the World Cup. Before the tournament he had directly contributed to 10 goals for Atletico Madrid, scoring five and creating as many.

Griezmann's form has come during a season in which he had to settle for a substitute role up until September 18, due to Atleti attempting to navigate a financial clause in their loan agreement with Barcelona, which would have kicked in had the 31-year-old played a certain amount of minutes.

Had that clause been activated, Atleti would have had to pay €40million to re-sign Griezmann. As it was, they paid under half of that to bring him back to the club permanently in October.

It's Barca up next for Atleti in the highlight fixture of this weekend's LaLiga matches. Going into that match, Griezmann is a player reimagined.

 

The creator in chief

Griezmann has returned from the World Cup with a vigour and verve to his play perhaps not seen since his prime years at Atleti back in 2017 to 2019.

His goal contributions stand at 13 (five more than any of his team-mates) after three assists across two appearances since Atleti's campaign restarted – one game in LaLiga and one in the Copa del Rey.

Griezmann leads the club's scoring charts along with Alvaro Morata while his tally of seven assists is four clear of next-best Joao Felix, who seems destined to leave the club this month. None of his team-mates come close to matching Griezmann's 42 chances created, and 35 of those have come from open play.

But it's Griezmann's positioning that is the truly interesting aspect of his fine form.

Didier Deschamps has often utilised Griezmann as a second striker in international football. That was the position he played in at Euro 2016, and during France's successful run at the 2018 World Cup.

Yet in Qatar, Griezmann was deployed as the most advanced of a midfield trio, and there he showed his ability to not only find space in the final third, but run games altogether.

 

Only Kylian Mbappe (49) was involved in more shot-ending attacking sequences for France at the tournament than Griezmann (30).

However, of Griezmann's 361 open-play touches, just 14 came in the opposition box, with the vast majority clustered in the middle of the park.

Not that it prevented Griezmann from wielding his influence. He provided three assists, leading the competition alongside Harry Kane, Bruno Fernandes, Ivan Perisic and Lionel Messi. Unlike all of those players, however, Griezmann's expected assists (xA) of 3.6 was actually slightly underperformed. Essentially, he was creating higher quality chances for those assists than his counterparts.

 

That quality was evidenced with a sublime cross into Olivier Giroud for France's second goal in the 2-1 quarter-final victory over England, having earlier teed up Aurelien Tchouameni's strike to move ahead of Zinedine Zidane and Thierry Henry in terms of the most assists for Les Bleus. Griezmann's 28 assists rank as the most by any France player for his country in the last 50 years.

Griezmann's 22 chances created were the most at the tournament, albeit only nine of those came from open play. When it came to creativity, Griezmann was at the top of his game.

From poacher to playmaker

It was certainly a case of picking up where he left off for Griezmann when Atleti took on Elche in LaLiga on December 29. Diego Simeone's side won 2-0, and Griezmann was superb.

He set up both goals and created four chances. No player attempted more passes in the opposition half (37), or played in more crosses (five).

Despite Atleti having lined up in a 3-4-3, with Griezmann nominally positioned on the right flank, his average position was just ahead of the halfway line.

It was a similar story against Real Oviedo on Wednesday in the Copa del Rey. While he was supposedly playing in a front two alongside Alvaro Morata, Griezmann's touches were centred around the halfway line, with only two coming in the opposition box.

Dovetailing with Morata in a forward line, or indeed playing as an inside forward in a 3-4-3, is in principle ideal for Griezmann to drop into a similar role as to the one he thrived in during the World Cup.

Barca best be wary

It would seem the two-man attack would provide the perfect platform for Griezmann to show what Barca never managed to unlock on a consistent basis during his two years at the club.

Not that his time at Barca was a complete failure. Griezmann scored 35 goals and assisted a further 16 across 102 appearances. But he looks like he has his mojo back now. In fact, no LaLiga player has assisted more goals in all competitions.

Morata should provide the pace and work rate to stretch Barca's backline, handing Griezmann the space to drop between the lines and pull the strings.

Griezmann is averaging 73.4 touches per 90 minutes for Atleti this term, but only 4.8 in the opposition's box. His role has been gradually developing over the course of the campaign and the World Cup proved just how effective he can be.

Barca twice gave away the lead against Intercity Sant Joan d'Alacant in their Copa del Rey tie, and as Inter and Bayern Munich displayed in the Champions League, the Blaugrana's defence can be got at, even if in LaLiga Xavi's side have conceded just six times.

If Griezmann, who at least might be easier to spot, what with his bright pink hair, can replicate the influence he had in Qatar, Barca will be hard-pressed to stop him.

Pep Guardiola has frequently been accused of overthinking during his time as Manchester City manager, with some even putting their continued failure to win the Champions League down to this reason.

As a case in point, City lost to Chelsea in the 2021 final of that competition when Guardiola decided against fielding a naturally defensive midfielder.

Perhaps it has been a fair criticism at times, but by extension it highlights the self-belief that he can outmanoeuvre opponents before they've even set foot on the pitch.

He might even be accused of having overcomplicated plans for Thursday's trip to Stamford Bridge.

Yet Guardiola also inspired the 1-0 win over Chelsea with his own apparent recognition that he got his initial line-up wrong, his second-half changes proving key as City returned to winning ways after that disappointing 1-1 draw with Everton on New Year's Eve.

It took a while for victory to look likely, though, even with a patched-up Chelsea enduring an injury nightmare.

There was unmistakably a sense of bewilderment around the stadium as Raheem Sterling and Christian Pulisic sustained knocks that forced their withdrawal.

Only 22 minutes had been played. The double blow continued Chelsea's remarkably bad luck on the fitness front of late, with those two taking their injury list to 10 players having also lost Mason Mount in the previous 24 hours.

And if there's any team primed to capitalise on such misfortune, it's City.

Or, it usually is.

Despite Chelsea's predicament, they were the better team in the first half – quite comfortably so, some fans might even suggest.

Pulisic looked destined to score when John Stones produced the forceful – but clean – last-ditch tackle that ultimately forced the American's substitution.

Bernardo Silva made a similarly important intervention to block an attempt from Pulisic's replacement, Carney Chukwuemeka, who looked lively off the bench.

While it may not have been a case of City struggling to stay afloat, their lack of invention and control was curious, even against a team like Chelsea.

It was nothing like the City we've come to expect.

Still, though, Chelsea deserved credit. For all their problems and poor recent form, they looked sharp, up for a fight, and went agonisingly close just before the break as Chukwuemeka hit the post at the end of a rapid breakaway.

It was in moments like that, when the game was stretched, that Chelsea looked their most threatening – perhaps, then, it was no surprise to see Guardiola make changes at the interval.

City reverted to a back four. Kyle Walker and Joao Cancelo were withdrawn; Manuel Akanji went to centre-back; Rodri moved back into midfield, and Rico Lewis came on as a right-back-cum-central-midfielder.

Almost instantly City had the greater control they'd desired. Suddenly Chelsea were struggling to keep their heads above water as the visitors relentlessly poured men forward and snuffed out any counter attempts.

Chelsea survived in the 52nd minute when Nathan Ake's header hit the post and Phil Foden saw a follow-up blocked; Kevin De Bruyne then drilled wide from inside the box a few minutes later.

But while Guardiola's half-time adjustments undoubtedly played a role in altering the course of the match, it was his additional tinkering on the hour that was truly decisive.

Foden's restoration to the starting XI would have been popular among the army of supporters calling for his return, but he was largely anonymous here – the impact of his replacement will have surely drawn a smug grin from Guardiola.

Jack Grealish, with his first major involvement three minutes after coming on, played the ball across the face of goal to put it on a plate for Riyad Mahrez.

He was left with a simple tap-in, opening the scoring with what was also Mahrez's first proper involvement as he got in behind Marc Cucurella.

It had been that area of the pitch where most of City's joy had previously come from, with Bernardo's substitution for Mahrez almost surprising at the time given the Portugal midfielder had been giving Cucurella the run-around in the first 14 minutes of the second period.

Yet Guardiola's decisiveness was crucial. He went back to the wide pairing that had become his favoured option lately, and they showed why that'd been the case in one simple move – and just a few moments after being introduced.

Chelsea's attempts to claw back the slender deficit were valiant, spirited, their young substitutes battling away encouragingly. It was ultimately beyond them, but there is only so much you can expect given the Blues' list of absentees.

No, this was all down to City and Guardiola.

Maybe Guardiola did overcomplicate things for himself, but if you don't have anyone good enough to play chess against, sometimes you've just got to play yourself.

A new year may bring fresh hope, but the same old problems were clear to see for Chelsea in their 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest on Sunday.

A team seemingly stuck in transition and unable to fully adapt to the methods of head coach Graham Potter, Chelsea face a huge battle to even finish in the Premier League top four this season – their absolute minimum target.

Amid all the talk of a struggling attack (only eight other teams have scored fewer goals per game than Chelsea this season), and the need for further freshening up in other areas, the situation regarding the goalkeeping position has all of a sudden gone very quiet.

The opening of the transfer window in recent years, whether prior to the start of a new season or midway through, would lead to strong speculation surrounding the future of Kepa Arrizabalaga.

Not so much this time around, with the Spain international usurping Edouard Mendy since Potter's arrival in September and performing steadily between the sticks in the four months since.

Indeed, it could be argued that Kepa has just about been Chelsea's most consistent performer under Potter, albeit far from perfect in what has been a difficult period for the Blues.

Eight times Kepa has been used in the Premier League this season, each of those appearances coming after Thomas Tuchel's departure, and he has kept a clean sheet in half of those matches.

To put that in some perspective, only Newcastle United's Nick Pope – statistically the best keeper in the division this season – is keeping shutouts at a better rate, with Manchester United's David de Gea and Aaron Ramsdale of Arsenal close behind.

Heading into the midweek round of fixtures, meanwhile, no goalkeeper could boast a better save percentage return than Kepa's 83.3 among those to have played more than once, with Pope (80.7) the closest to him in that category.

While he perhaps could have done a little more to keep out some of the six goals he has conceded, Kepa has yet to commit an error leading to a goal in the Premier League this campaign, unlike De Gea, Mendy, Jordan Pickford (one each) and Hugo Lloris (a competition-leading three) among others.

High-profile errors were for a long time a hallmark of Kepa's game. Not only that, the 28-year-old never seemed to be far from the headlines, a perfect case in point being a little under four years ago when refusing to leave the field after Maurizio Sarri tried to substitute him off in the EFL Cup final.

Three years later, in last season's final at Wembley, it was Kepa's missed spot-kick – the 22nd of a remarkable shoot-out – that led to Liverpool lifting the cup at Chelsea's expense.

There have been plenty of highs and lows in between, but that City match in particular may well come to define Kepa's time at Stamford Bridge, however long it is he remains at the club.

But now at a relative high point of his Chelsea career, the former Athletic Bilbao stopper will be out to prove himself once more when Chelsea and City face off twice in the space of three days this week.

It may well be that Potter opts to rotate for the second of those matches, an FA Cup third-round tie on Sunday, but Thursday's league clash at Stamford Bridge will see Kepa get the nod.

He has a pretty mixed record against City in his five seasons as a Chelsea player, conceding 10 goals in five matches, albeit with six of those coming in a single game in the 2018-19 campaign, and has kept three clean sheets.

"I'm feeling very well, I'm feeling confident with and without the ball. I'm feeling like I'm helping the team when they need it, so I'm happy," Kepa said in October after producing another fine display to keep out Brentford in a goalless draw.

"Of course, every player needs this confidence, this push, and I think for the goalkeeper it's even more important when you have continuity. For a goalkeeper, when you're not playing, in training it's not the same. I have to keep going, I have to keep working."

Keep working he has and, aided perhaps by a slice of luck owing to Mendy's injury problems and reported off-the-field problems, Kepa is now Chelsea's first choice until at least the end of the campaign, bar any surprise January moves.

And on the basis of the numbers alone, there is no real reason why Chelsea should look to change in that department in the long term. Of all goalkeepers in the Premier League this term, only Liverpool's Alison (8.4) has prevented more goals than Kepa on 4.1 – rising to 5.1 when excluding own goals.

Essentially, Kepa has kept out four goals more than expected based on the quality of chances for the opposition, bailing out an underperforming defence a number of times. On three occasions this season, Kepa has had to make five or more saves in a single game.

This may all say just as much about Chelsea's defence, which is stuck between the old and new, as it does Kepa. But as Chelsea prepare for their double-header against City, Kepa can at least afford a little smile as his redemption arc perhaps comes full circle.

Most football seasons carry a degree of unpredictability; that's just the nature of sport.

But it's certainly arguable that this season is among the least predictable in living memory due to the unique timing of the World Cup, which took place across November and December for the first time.

In Italy, Napoli would've presumably been the team most frustrated by the timing of Qatar 2022. On course for a first Scudetto since 1990 and the days of Diego Maradona, the Partenopei had been head and shoulders above the rest in Serie A before the World Cup and among the most eye-catching sides in Europe.

They'd lost just once – a 2-0 Champions League defeat at Liverpool – and won all but three matches across all competitions prior to the season's break. So, the key question facing them now is, can momentum survive a two-month hiatus?

The next 10 days or so will give us a fairly clear indication of just how good Napoli are.

Napoli's testing return

Napoli return to action in 2023 with one of the most-anticipated games of the season. Not only are their title credentials set for a thorough examination, but Inter could do with a positive result to kick-start their season.

Simone Inzaghi's men sit fifth, 11 points behind Napoli. A spell of four defeats in six Serie A games between August and October gave Inter an uphill struggle right from the early weeks of the season.

They recovered, to an extent, but did also lose to Juventus in early November. You'd have to think their chances of regaining the title they won in 2021, but relinquished to city rivals Milan last season, will disappear into the realms of impossibility if they are beaten on Wednesday.

Some might even suggest that's the case already. After all, Stats Perform's AI prediction model gives them only a 4.3 per cent chance of finishing the season top – though that is at least higher than the two teams directly above them.

It's not just this Inter clash that Napoli fans will have on their minds, however.

They host bitter rivals Juventus on January 13, and like Inter, the Bianconeri will also still harbour title hopes. That's assuming they don't suffer the unlikely fate of losing to Udinese – whose form tailed off after an incredible start – and winless Cremonese in the interim.

Perhaps all this talk of the title is a bit daft when you consider Napoli's clash with Juve won't even be the halfway point of the season: there remains a long way to go.

However, when a team has been as good as Napoli were before the World Cup, it's only normal to start considering how many more opportunities their rivals have.

Inter potentially have a joker in the pack, though.

Romelu's redemption?

It's been a difficult 18 months for Romelu Lukaku. His highly anticipated return to Chelsea was underwhelming, to say the least, and resulted in him making his way back to Inter.

"It's like coming home," he said. But injuries restricted the 29-year-old to just four appearances in Serie A before the World Cup, therefore Italy is very much still waiting for the real Lukaku to return.

In fact, the world is still waiting. Let's not forget, Lukaku did feature for Belgium in Qatar but did little to rebuild his fractured reputation.

Granted, injuries again limited his involvement but that performance against Croatia as Belgium were knocked out at the group stage was remarkable. He had five shots equalling 1.7 expected goals (xG), including three absolute sitters, yet he failed to convert any.

But if Lukaku does get back to anything like what he showed during his previous spell in San Siro, there's every reason to expect a slightly different Inter between now and the end of the season.

During those two campaigns with the Nerazzurri, Lukaku's haul of 47 league goals was bettered by only four players across the top five leagues. Similarly, his 35 non-penalty (np) strikes was only slightly above his np-xG (33.1 – also the fifth-highest in the top five leagues), which supports the idea he was dependable without being regularly lucky.

Of course, Antonio Conte's system at Inter was what many considered key in Lukaku's improvement. His pace, strength and running power – helped of course by his finishing ability – made the Belgian almost unplayable in a transition-based side.

Chelsea never saw the same player partly because Thomas Tuchel is a more possession-orientated coach; those opportunities to release Lukaku in behind defences just weren't as frequent and he arguably isn't technically good enough to be a key player in such a setup.

As such, Inzaghi was aware he'd have to change his tactics somewhat to adjust to Lukaku this season – this will be tested to the max over the coming weeks, and its success will likely determine Inter's campaign one way or the other.

The list of things that have not gone entirely to plan for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is pretty extensive.

From offensive line injuries to an inconsistent pass rush and the questionable decision-making of head coach Todd Bowles in his first year in the job, the Buccaneers have had to deal with both misfortune and a host of self-inflicted problems.

Yet the most bemusing issue in what can at best be described as an up-and-down season for Tom Brady following his about-face on his initial offseason decision to retire has been his lack of a rapport with Mike Evans.

Sideline frustration between Brady and Evans has been a common theme for Tampa Bay in 2022, with the latter's struggles seeing him go 11 games without scoring a receiving touchdown.

That frustration was alleviated emphatically on Sunday as Evans exploded for a hat-trick of touchdowns in helping the Buccaneers overturn a 21-10 deficit against the Carolina Panthers and clinch the NFC South with a 30-24 victory at Raymond James Stadium.

Evans caught deep shots of 63, 57 and 30 yards from Brady as he destroyed an injury-hit Panthers secondary.

He created a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a play where he is targeted, on eight of his 12 targets in a performance that saw him rack up 207 receiving yards. Evans averaged 17.25 burn yards per target, trailing only Christian Watson and Davante Adams among wideouts with at least five targets in Week 17 as of Sunday.

It was belated reward for a season in which Evans, despite consistently appearing out of sync with Brady, he has excelled at getting open. Indeed, heading into Week 17, Evans led the NFL in combined open percentage (56.47) in matchups against man and zone coverage (min. 100 matchups).

His first deep touchdown reception saw Evans surpass 1,000 receiving yards for the season. It is his ninth successive 1,000-yard campaign, tying Tim Brown for the second-longest such streak in NFL history. Only San Francisco 49ers legend Jerry Rice (11) can claim to have more consecutive four-figure receiving seasons.

Evans' own record for the most successive 1,000-yard receiving seasons to start a career was also extended, but more important than his individual milestones is the confidence his treble could give both him and Brady as they prepare for the postseason.

The Buccaneers have had precious little on which to rely on the offensive side of the ball, save for their performance when going no-huddle and Brady's ability to lead comebacks in the fourth quarter.

Brady has a career-high five game-winning drives this season and four fourth-quarter comebacks, a tally that is one shy of his career-high in that respect.

But the rekindling of Brady's connection with Evans gives Tampa Bay something to lean on, a route to explosive plays that will be all the more critical in the postseason.

A narrow win over the Panthers won't do much to change perceptions that the Bucs are a team well short of being able to compete for a Super Bowl. However, Brady and Evans connecting consistently downfield improves the odds of them at least doing damage in the playoffs, especially in a possible first-round matchup with a volatile and vulnerable Dallas Cowboys secondary.

It's likely to be the final year of the Brady-Evans partnership in Tampa, one that has resulted in 32 touchdowns since the quarterback left the New England Patriots to head to the Buccaneers.

Though it remains a long shot that Brady's expected swansong with the Bucs will result in a second title in three seasons, his farewell may be extended a few weeks longer than many anticipated if he and Evans can deliver a few more demonstrations of the rapport that had previously made this offense so devastating.

With a new year upon us, it's only natural to look ahead at the next 12 months and the footballers who could enjoy breakthroughs at the top level.

From one player who bears a striking resemblance to Diego Maradona, to another hoping to follow in the footsteps of Erling Haaland, Stats Perform has identified eight youngsters who could be worth keeping an eye on in 2023.

Gavin Bazunu – goalkeeper, 20, Southampton

It's been a difficult introduction to the Premier League for Bazunu. The Republic of Ireland international joined from Manchester City at the end of last season for a reported £12million, highlighting just how highly rated he is in the game.

But his 30 goals conceded (excluding own goals) have come from 21.3 expected goals on target (xGOT), which suggests Bazunu has been at fault for 8.7 goals this term – that's comfortably the worst such record in the Premier League.

Can he turn his season around and bolster Southampton's survival hopes? Bazunu has potential but is struggling to live up to it at the moment.

Devyne Rensch – full-back, 19, Ajax

With Noussair Mazraoui moving on to Bayern Munich in pre-season, Rensch has been given greater exposure to first-team football, with his 12 Eredivisie starts already four more than in the 2021-22 campaign.

He's less of an obvious attacking threat than Mazraoui, but Rensch is an elegant player, as you might expect of an Ajax academy product, and quick.

Comfortable on the ball and versatile enough to play across the back four, Rensch is a very well-rounded defender with a big future.

Giorgio Scalvini – 19, centre-back, Atalanta

Scalvini broke into the Atalanta first-team picture in 2021 as a 17-year-old. Since then, he has progressed quickly and impressively, to the extent where the club are expected to cash in on him to a significant degree in 2023.

An imposing yet classy central defender, Scalvini is very much the archetypal modern centre-back in terms of how he operates, with his 22.9 forward passes per 90 minutes this season among the very best in his role in Serie A.

Also comfortable playing in midfield, Scalvini likes to defend on the front foot as highlighted by his 2.7 tackles per 90 minutes ranking highly among centre-backs as well.

Atalanta are reportedly expecting to fetch at least €40m for him over the next year, with Inter, Juventus, Tottenham and Manchester City all said to be admirers.

Kobbie Mainoo – 17, central midfielder, Manchester United

Mainoo looks to be one of the most talented players United have produced in a while. The teenager has caused a stir with his performances in the club's youth teams over the past few years, and that has recently led to an internal promotion.

A silky central midfielder, Mainoo was a key part of the United side that won the FA Youth Cup last season.

Given his technical ability, comparisons with Paul Pogba are to be expected, though the early signs suggest Mainoo may be able to offer the deep-lying playmaking qualities the Frenchman lacked.

He signed his first professional contract in May, was named on the bench for the second time this season in the Premier League during Saturday's win at Wolves, and featured prominently for United in the World Cup break after being promoted to the senior squad.

If there's any teenager in line to follow Alejandro Garnacho in establishing himself at Old Trafford, it's Mainoo.

Andreas Schjelderup – 18, left-winger, Nordsjaelland

Martin Odegaard, Haaland... could Schjelderup be Norway's latest superstar? The early signs are extremely positive.

The 18-year-old is still waiting for his first senior cap, but he's really making a name for himself in the Danish Superliga, with his dazzling dribbling abilities and eye for a goal causing defences no end of issues.

Schjelderup's 74 dribble attempts are the second-most in the league this season, while no one has bettered his 10 goals, with the teenager very effective coming in off the left flank on to his right foot.

Benfica are reportedly one of the clubs keen on him. Wherever he ends up, 2023 looks likely to be a breakthrough year for the youngster.

Carlos Alvarez – 19, attacking midfielder, Sevilla

It takes just a few seconds to realise why Alvarez is compared to Maradona. The stature, his tucked-in jersey, the hair – then he gets on the ball and the realisation hits home even more.

Left-footed, blessed with exceptional dribbling abilities and a remarkably low centre of gravity, Alvarez looks to be the most naturally gifted player to come through Sevilla's academy since Jose Antonio Reyes, and probably beyond.

But the club have been very protective over him and his development, so much so that his 75 minutes against Juventud Torremolinos in the Copa del Rey last week were his first for the senior side.

He made his debut for their B team just a couple of weeks after his 16th birthday in August 2019, and finally it would appear his senior breakthrough has arrived, with Isco's departure certainly not hurting his cause.

Alberto Moleiro – 19, attacking midfielder, Las Palmas

A gifted young midfielder who plays for Las Palmas – the 'new Pedri' tag is almost too obvious. Moleiro tends to operate in a more advanced role, though he is clearly similarly blessed.

Skilful and a talented dribbler, Moleiro is in his second season in Las Palmas' senior side and playing a key role in their promotion push.

He's yet to score a league goal this term, but Moleiro's creativity and bravery on the ball are real assets, with only two players in the Segunda bettering his 29 chances created in open play and just three tallying more than his 70 dribble attempts.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Barcelona are said to be keeping tabs on him – but even if he doesn't earn a move away from the Canary Islands, it would appear there's a strong possibility he'll be in LaLiga anyway before the end of 2023 with Las Palmas top of the second tier.

Karim Konate – 18, striker, Salzburg

Salzburg's conveyor belt of striker talent has been impressive in recent years. First there was Haaland, then Karim Adeyemi, and Benjamin Sesko has already secured a big-money move to RB Leipzig for the end of the season.

Konate will hope to be the next.

Like Adeyemi and Sesko before him, Konate – a well-rounded forward who is excellent in the air – has been honing his skills at Salzburg's sister club Liefering in Austria's second tier this season, scoring 10 times in 14 league games.

He's also been featuring for Salzburg's Under-19s in the UEFA Youth League, with his five goals in six games bettered by only five players.

Konate probably won't get his chance in the senior side until next season, but with Salzburg Champions League regulars these days, he will be one to look out for.

New Year's resolutions are easy to set but far less easy to keep.

But in order to enjoy a prosperous 2023, it will be vital for some to change their ways in the 12 months ahead.

That does not apply to everyone, and Premier League champions Manchester City will be sitting comfortably, even with ground to make up in the title race.

For those hoping to match Pep Guardiola's men, however, Stats Perform has identified some goals for 2023...
 

Save more money – Manchester United

The January sales make it difficult to save at this time of year, and Erik ten Hag has already outlined his desire to see a new striker brought in before the end of the month.

But if United reflect on past years, they might acknowledge that simply spending huge amounts is not a fix for their problems on the field.

In theory, Cristiano Ronaldo's departure has left a hole, except he was not in Ten Hag's first team anyway. The United manager might be better served making good use of Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial rather than rushing to buy a player unlikely to be drastically better at great cost.

Exercise more – Chelsea

A cold January provides plenty of excuses not to head out for a run, but Chelsea would love to be able to put their key men to work. Instead, they have too often been injured.

N'Golo Kante remains out, and Reece James and Ben Chilwell have missed a huge chunk of the season. James returned this week but lasted little over 50 minutes before feeling another knee injury, while Wesley Fofana is also out again.

Chelsea will spend in January, but their hopes of recovering a Champions League charge will depend on being able to have existing players back fit again.

Learn a new skill – Darwin Nunez

Liverpool also have persistent injury problems, with Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota still on the sidelines, but they should still have more than enough to really push for a top-four finish.

While the signing of Cody Gakpo helps in that regard, Liverpool's season might be shaped by Nunez's ability to score consistently at this level.

Nunez is among the Premier League's most prolific shooters but has repeatedly squandered big chances. That goalscoring knack is not easy to learn, yet Liverpool need their big pre-season signing to do exactly that.

Live life to the fullest – Arsenal

Arsenal fans have spent years complaining about their team, with no league title since 2004 and no hope of a title challenge since 2016.

They are now sitting pretty at the top of the table heading into 2023, so it is time to enjoy it. There is no guarantee the Gunners will be able to hold off City – or Newcastle United – but this has already been a season to remember.

Even if Mikel Arteta's men slip away and merely secure a return to Champions League football, supporters must recognise this for the successful campaign it is.

Get organised – Tottenham

If rivals Spurs are to join Arsenal in Europe's elite club competition next season, they simply must become more organised – not something you would necessarily associate with an Antonio Conte side.

Rather than post-Christmas clutter, Tottenham's biggest issue is their defence, repeatedly conceding cheap goals that give Harry Kane and Co. a mountain to climb.

The quality of Kane, Son Heung-min and the rest ensures Spurs remain in the mix regardless, but there is too much competition this season for Spurs not to be punished if they continue with these defensive lapses.

Travel more – Newcastle United

Newcastle have emerged as surprise contenders this season – contenders for what exactly we and they are not yet sure.

But for all the optimistic talk of a title surge or Champions League qualification, Newcastle simply must secure European football now to continue their progress.

Although it is an aim that might have appeared optimistic at the start of the season, the Magpies cannot miss out from this commanding position, needing to be travelling Europe to keep Bruno Guimaraes and Sven Botman and attract similarly exciting talents.

As well as bringing an end to a long-running transfer saga, Cristiano Ronaldo's move to Al Nassr likely brings the curtain down on one of the greatest careers in elite European football history.

The five-time Ballon d'Or winner will unquestionably become the highest-profile player to feature in the Saudi Pro League when he makes his debut, but he is by no means the first to make a move of that nature.

A tradition of elite players spending the twilight of their careers in an unfamiliar league – whether for one last payday or to raise the profile of the competition – is long-running.

Here, Stats Perform looks at how a series of other superstars fared after making comparable moves, including all-time greats Pele and Johan Cruyff, and a legendary Spanish midfield duo.
 

Pele (New York Cosmos)

When Pele joined the North American Soccer League (NASL)'s New York Cosmos in 1975, the Brazilian had already cemented his place among the very greatest to play the game by winning three World Cups – the first as a teenager and the last as part of one of the all-time great Selecao teams.

Despite his advancing years, Pele's class remained on display in the United States, where he scored 37 goals and registered 30 assists in three years with the Cosmos, who won the NASL's Soccer Bowl in 1977. 

 

Franz Beckenbauer (New York Cosmos)

Having signed one World Cup legend in Pele, the Cosmos repeated the trick in 1977 with the acquisition of Beckenbauer, who played four seasons for the club either side of a brief return to Germany with Hamburg.

The Bayern Munich great can certainly count his time in the NASL as a success, winning three Soccer Bowls – the latter two without Pele.

Johan Cruyff (Los Angeles Aztecs and Washington Diplomats)

As another highly decorated player moving to the NASL in the late 1970s, Cruyff represented both the Los Angeles Aztecs and the Washington Diplomats following his brief retirement in 1978.

The Dutch innovator complained of playing on artificial surfaces in the United States before bucking the trend of most players on this list – Cruyff returned to Europe in the twilight of his career, leading Ajax to two further Eredivisie titles as well as winning the division with their rivals Feyenoord. 

Samuel Eto'o (Anzhi Makhachkala)

While every transfer on this list was left-field, few created as much shock as Samuel Eto'o's 2011 move from Inter to big-spending Russian outfit Anzhi Makhachkala. 

Eto'o reportedly became the world's best-paid player with his move to Anzhi, for whom he scored 25 league goals before billionaire owner Suleyman Kerimov scaled back ambitions at the now-defunct club, leading the striker to head to Chelsea.

 

David Beckham (LA Galaxy)

The NASL established the tradition of footballing luminaries arriving in the United States, but Beckham's 2007 move to LA Galaxy helped Major League Soccer break new ground.

Beckham won two MLS Cups and two Supporters' Shields with the Galaxy, but the wider impact of his move – which inspired several other big names to head stateside and led the former England captain to found Inter Miami – was huge. 

Xavi (Al Sadd)

Xavi called time on his playing career with Barcelona as a Champions League winner in 2015, opting to spend four years representing Qatar Stars League side Al Sadd before cutting his managerial teeth at the same club.

The 2010 World Cup winner won the Qatari top-flight once as a player and once as a coach before returning to Camp Nou last year, having both played and managed over 100 games with Al Sadd. 

Andres Iniesta (Vissel Kobe)

The second of Barca's pass masters left the European game in 2018, when Iniesta joined J1 league side Vissel Kobe in a shock move.

Considering he still captains the side at the age of 38, Iniesta must have enjoyed his time in Japan, where he has since been joined by compatriots Bojan Krkic and Sergi Samper.

James Rodriguez (Al Rayyan)

Whenever the World Cup rolls around, the idea of breakout stars is discussed. Few players have been more deserving of that tag than Colombia's Rodriguez, who top-scored at the 2014 edition.

Having enjoyed title successes with European heavyweights Real Madrid and Bayern Munich and enjoyed a – rather less successful – spell at Everton, Rodriguez is now plying his trade with Al Rayyan, who are languishing in eighth place in the Qatar Stars League.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic (LA Galaxy)

Most of the players named on this list enjoyed some form of success – whether it be on or off the pitch – after making their surprise moves, but few can match the feats of Ibrahimovic.

Ibrahimovic was – like Ronaldo – 37 when he left Manchester United in 2018, scoring 53 MLS goals for the Galaxy in two hugely successful seasons before returning to Europe to help Milan win the Scudetto earlier this year.

While Ronaldo now looks unlikely to return to the pinnacle of European football, if Ibrahimovic can do it, few would bet against the Portugal great doing likewise. 

 

The 2022 NFL season heads into its final two weeks with battles for the postseason and for playoff seeding set to go right to the wire.

Nine teams have already clinched their place in the postseason, and there are seven teams with clinching scenarios in Week 17.

That should make for a fascinating slate of games in which the finer details that often prove decisive will be even more critical.

In a week where so many have so much to play for, Stats Perform has picked out the biggest games of the week and used its advanced data to break down the key matchups that could settle their outcomes.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Win Probability: Buccaneers 72.9 per cent

Key Matchup: Panthers' run game vs. Tampa Bay defense

The Buccaneers know the task in front of them at Raymond James Stadium: win and, despite an extremely underwhelming season, and they are in the playoffs as champions of the dismal NFC South.

Lose and the Panthers will have the lead of the division with the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay heading into the final week of the regular season.

Carolina stunningly prevailed 21-3 over Tampa Bay in Week 7 and the key to that win will again likely determine whether the Panthers can complete the sweep.

The Panthers averaged 6.4 yards per rush in that victory and head into this game on the back of racking up 320 yards on the ground in a dominant win over the Detroit Lions.

While Carolina had success running the ball against Tampa Bay in the previous meeting, the Buccaneers remain one of the better teams in the NFL defending the ground game. Indeed, their run success rate allowed of 33.7 per cent is tied for the fourth-best in the NFL.

If the Bucs can take away the Carolina ground game and force Sam Darnold to win the game on his arm, Tampa Bay figure to be excellently positioned to claim victory and the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Win Probability: Vikings 56.3 per cent

Key Matchup: Justin Jefferson vs. Jaire Alexander

Way back in Week 1, the Vikings cruised to a 23-7 win over the Packers that set the tone for hugely contrasting seasons. The Vikings have usurped the Packers as the dominant force in the NFC North, though each of their 11 wins since the season-opening defeat of Green Bay have been by one score.

Though the Vikings' ability to close out tight games has been extremely impressive, their inability to put teams away earlier gives them an air of vulnerability that Green Bay will look to exploit as the 7-8 Packers aim to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Still looking over their shoulders at the hottest team in football, the San Francisco 49ers, in the race for the second seed in the NFC, and within touching distance of the Philadelphia Eagles in the fight for the one seed, the Vikings have no shortage of motivation to make it two wins out of two against their biggest rivals this season.

Their simplest route to claiming a comfortable win over the Packers is to feed the man who shredded Green Bay in the season opener. Justin Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in that contest and has continued to embellish his resume as arguably the best wide receiver in football in 2022.

No receiver in the NFL has more receptions of 20 yards or more than Jefferson's 27 this season, and the Packers will be desperate to try to limit his impact at Lambeau Field.

The debate in Week 1 surrounded whether the Packers should have had cornerback Jaire Alexander shadow Jefferson and he will surely look to match up with the Vikings star this time around.

While not performing at his All-Pro level of 2020, Alexander is 23rd among outside cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps for burn rate, which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted. Alexander has allowed receivers to win their matchup on 33 of his 72 targets for a burn rate of 45.9 per cent.

Jefferson will still fancy he can get the better of Alexander and, coming off a strong performance against the Miami Dolphins, the latter's ability to contain one of the NFL's premier offensive weapons may have a significant bearing on whether the Packers are playing postseason football in the second full week of January.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

Win Probability: Bills 61.5 per cent

Key Matchup: Joe Burrow vs. Buffalo pass rush

The Bengals and Bills square off in one of the most significant Monday Night Football games in recent memory with both teams firmly in the mix for the one seed in the AFC.

Defeat for the Bills would likely give the Kansas City Chiefs, who face the Denver Broncos on Sunday, top spot going into Week 18, but it would also see the Bengals leapfrog them and put Cincinnati in position to potentially host two home playoff games. The Bengals also hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs but are a game back on Kansas City.

Even with a win in Buffalo, the Bengals would likely need help from the Las Vegas Raiders against the Chiefs in Week 18 to top the AFC. Their path to keeping those hopes alive with victory in Orchard Park surrounds the man who propelled Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last season, Joe Burrow.

Though the Bengals' offensive line has improved this year, it still ranks 24th in pass block win rate. Buffalo's defense, missing Von Miller following his season-ending knee injury, is fourth in pass rush win rate.

It is a mismatch on paper, but one Burrow can negate with his ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately.

Only Tom Brady (2.35 seconds) has a quicker average time to throw from snap to release than Burrow (2.45 seconds) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts, and the Cincinnati quarterback has again been devastatingly accurate with his ball placement. He has delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 per cent of attempts, the third-best ratio in the league (min. 200 throws).

Burrow is a quarterback who in his still young pro career has shone while under the biggest spotlights. Both he and a Buffalo defense minus the player recruited in the offseason to help put the Bills over the top, will hope to prove they are ready to deliver in the pressure cooker of the playoffs by producing a decisive performance in a game that will go a long way to deciding how complicated each team's path becomes.

Those who celebrate at this time of year will have barely had time to throw away the wrapping paper and store their strange jumpers back in the wardrobe.

Whether they got what they wanted or not, football fans develop a different kind of lust as January approaches, with transfer season opening for another month.

Some big names are already being linked with possible moves, with the most obvious being free agent Cristiano Ronaldo after his release by Manchester United.

Deals are already being put in place for January 1, with Cody Gakpo confirmed to be on his way to Liverpool from PSV.

Before the chaos of the January transfer window begins, Stats Perform has looked at some players who could be in the middle of a tug of war and end the first month of 2023 at a new club.

Cristiano Ronaldo

It seemed a strange thing for Ronaldo to do, but whether it was his intention or not, the Portugal star effectively ended his relationship with Manchester United when he decided to take public swipes at club figures, including manager Erik ten Hag, via an interview with Piers Morgan prior to the World Cup.

It led to the strange situation of seeing his great rival Lionel Messi lift the World Cup at the same time as Ronaldo did not even have a club.

In theory, there should be plenty lining up to offer him a deal, even if he does turn 38 in just over a month. Ronaldo scored 24 goals in 38 games for United last season, and left the club with only four former United players having a better overall goal per game ratio in the Premier League than his 0.44 (Ruud van Nistelrooy – 0.63, Andy Cole – 0.48, Wayne Rooney – 0.47, and Eric Cantona – 0.45).

However, with his wage demands and the likely reputational damage done by the nature of his acrimonious exit from Old Trafford, it does not seem like Europe's biggest clubs are eager to make a move, despite the likes of Bayern Munich, Chelsea and arguably former club Real Madrid seemingly in the market for a striker.

It therefore seems likely Saudi Arabia side Al Nassr could have an unopposed run at him with their reported mega-money offer, though Ronaldo does not need to rush any decision as his free agency status means he can complete a transfer at any time.

 

Joao Felix

Another Portuguese attacker who looks likely to be playing elsewhere by February, Joao Felix is at the other end of his career, needing to find somewhere to fulfil his early promise.

Joao Felix moved to Atletico Madrid from Benfica for a reported €127million in 2019 at the age of 19 after contributing to 22 goals in 26 Primeira Liga appearances (15 goals, seven assists) but despite brief flashes, has never really come close to living up to that giant fee in Spain.

The 23-year-old has managed 33 goals and 16 assists in 129 appearances for Atletico, but has reportedly fallen out with head coach Diego Simeone, and is now being offered around a host of clubs in England.

Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Aston Villa are supposedly among those agent Jorge Mendes has approached, and all arguably have space in their team for another attacker ahead of the second half of the season.

Wherever he ends up, Joao Felix will hope he can finally produce the promise many saw in him as a teenager and find himself a long-term home to thrive.

Enzo Fernandez

In theory, most of Europe's elite clubs should be kicking themselves right now.

Fernandez only joined Benfica from River Plate at the start of this season for a reported fee of €12m, where he has shone in performances both domestically and in the Champions League.

That earned the midfielder a place in Lionel Scaloni's Argentina squad for the World Cup, and despite starting the tournament on the bench, he forced his way in to become a key part of the team that lifted the trophy in Qatar, earning himself the Best Young Player award in the process.

Unsurprisingly, the sharks are now circling, and Fernandez – who led all players for touches (118), successful passes (77) and tackles (10) in the World Cup final – could be making a swift exit from Lisbon.

Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd and Newcastle have been credited with an interest, though for Benfica to agree to do business mid-season as they sit top of the Primeira Liga and with a Champions League last 16 tie against Club Brugge to come, you would think they will want a huge fee approaching or beyond nine figures just to pick up the phone.

Mykhaylo Mudryk

As with Fernandez, Mudryk is a player who has seen his profile go up quickly in a short space of time.

Before the start of this season, the 21-year-old winger was being courted by the likes of Brentford and Everton, but his performances – particularly in the Champions League – have caught the eye of those higher up the food chain.

Mudryk scored three goals in six games in the Champions League group stage, having also recorded seven goals and six assists in 12 Ukrainian Premier League games prior to the mid-season break.

Arsenal seem to be the most interested party ahead of January, and reportedly have already lodged a bid, but the supposed demands of Shakhtar Donetsk could be what turns this into a saga.

Suggestions are that Shakhtar want up to €100m (£85m), and could try to take advantage of Arsenal's desperation as the Gunners try to maintain their Premier League title challenge after star striker Gabriel Jesus was ruled out for up to three months through injury.

 

Man Utd and any striker

It is not just players who take part in transfer sagas, clubs do as well, and few do so more often and more spectacularly than the Red Devils.

The will-they-won't-they drama appears to have already started for January as United were seemingly pipped to Gakpo by rivals Liverpool, and alternative names are already popping up in a story that could potentially drag throughout the month.

With a Ronaldo-shaped hole in the team, boss Ten Hag has already said he is seeking reinforcements, emphasising "it has to be the right one."

As well as Felix, United have been linked with moves for Goncalo Ramos, Dusan Vlahovic and even former Old Trafford man Memphis Depay.

With reports that Ten Hag could be limited to the loan market thanks to their heavy spending in the previous window and the Glazers' ongoing attempts to sell the club, perhaps United will be forced to make a move similar to the one that saw Odion Ighalo join temporarily in January 2020.

Cristiano Ronaldo's move to Saudi Pro League side Al Nassr looks likely to bring the curtain down on one of the greatest careers in the history of European football.

While writing off Ronaldo is always unwise, a combination of the striker's age and the unsavoury nature of his second spell at Manchester United make a return to elite European football seem improbable.

As a five-time Champions League winner and the top scorer in the history of European football's premier club competition, Ronaldo's legacy as one of the all-time greats is secure.

However, with seven top-flight league titles and a plethora of other trophies to his name, Ronaldo's impact on the continental game went beyond his goals on the grandest club stage.

With the five-time Ballon d'Or winner heading to Riyadh after penning a reported two-and-a-half-year deal with Al Nassr, Stats Perform looks back on his seismic impact in European club football.

Ronaldo's Premier League emergence

Ronaldo's return to the Premier League may not have gone to plan – the 37-year-old only scored once in the competition this term before an explosive interview with Piers Morgan led to his Old Trafford exit.

However, the three-time Premier League winner certainly made his mark in England, scoring 103 goals in 236 top-flight games for United.

Having burst onto the scene as a tricky winger, Ronaldo recorded 37 assists in the competition for the Red Devils, who he also helped to their third European title in 2008.

He also claimed his first Ballon d'Or while in Manchester in 2008 after scoring 31 goals in their title-winning 2007-08 campaign – that single-season tally has only been bettered by three players in the competition's history.

Making history with Madrid in LaLiga

Ronaldo may be treated as a legend at United, but it was at Real Madrid where he really made his name as one of football's greatest, becoming Los Blancos' top scorer with 450 goals in all competitions.

Incredibly, the Portugal forward averaged over a goal per game throughout his trophy-laden spell in Spain, hitting the net 311 times in 292 appearances in LaLiga.

Ronaldo scored with 16 per cent of his shots for Madrid, a higher percentage than he managed in the Premier League, Serie A or the Champions League. 

Madrid may be famed for their Champions League accomplishments, but Ronaldo also helped them to two domestic title triumphs in 2011-12 and 2016-17, netting 46 times as Jose Mourinho's side earned 100 points in the first of those campaigns.

Serie A success with the Bianconeri

Given Juventus' failure to win the Champions League, few consider Ronaldo's time in Turin to be an unmitigated success. The raw numbers, however, suggest otherwise.

Managing 81 goals in 98 league appearances for a club in perpetual crisis – with a conversion rate of 15 per cent – tells the story of how Ronaldo evolved in Serie A, honing his game as the ultimate penalty-box forward in his advancing years.

Despite a tumultuous period which saw Maurizio Sarri replace Massimiliano Allegri, Juventus stretched their incredible run of Scudetto success to nine consecutive seasons.

That stint ended in Ronaldo's final full campaign at the Allianz Stadium, though he still finished as Serie A's top scorer with 29 goals. 

The Champions League master

For those who believe Ronaldo to be the greatest to have played the game, the Portugal forward's exploits in the Champions League are always the crucial factor, the trump card.

Ronaldo's record of 140 goals in the competition is unmatched, though his great rival Lionel Messi (129) may have something to say about that if he declines to follow his fellow forward's lead in exiting Europe.

Averaging almost a goal contribution per game (180 in 183 appearances), Ronaldo won an astonishing 115 games in the Champions League, lifting the trophy five times – a joint-high tally.

As Madrid cemented their status as European masters by winning three consecutive titles between the 2015-16 and 2017-18 seasons, Ronaldo top-scored in the competition every season, cementing his legacy as the ultimate big-game player.

Cristiano Ronaldo finally put an end to speculation regarding his next destination on Friday as he completed his anticipated move to Saudi Pro League side Al Nassr.

Manchester United parted ways with the Portugal superstar by mutual consent in November, despite the 37-year-old having over six months to run on his contract at Old Trafford.

That move came after an explosive interview in which Ronaldo declared he felt "betrayed" by United and expressed his lack of respect for manager Erik ten Hag and former boss Ralf Rangnick.

The World Cup appeared the immediate priority for Ronaldo, but he offered little with just one group-stage strike against Ghana as Portugal failed to progress beyond the last eight. 

Despite Ronaldo unsuccessfully pushing to join a Champions League club prior to the start of the season, a return to Europe's elite competition still appeared possible with Chelsea, Bayern Munich and Sporting CP linked.

Major League Soccer was also touted as another avenue for the five-time Ballon d'Or winner, though he opted for a move to the Middle East as he left Europe for the first time in his remarkable career.

Here, Stats Perform explores why some potential destinations for Ronaldo did not come to fruition.

Major League Soccer

With the MLS season recently concluding, a move to North America would have presented Ronaldo with a clean slate for 2023 and boosted the profile of the league ahead of the 2026 World Cup taking place in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

Ronaldo required a Designated Player spot for any franchise looking to make a move, eliminating several clubs from the equation, but David Beckham's Inter Miami were attributed with a strong interest.

However, as speculation grows over the Herons making a move for Lionel Messi, could Beckham and Miami really afford both superstars?

 

Sporting CP

Ronaldo's return to United was not as successful as fans would have wanted, but a fairytale reunion with boyhood club Sporting was still repeatedly suggested.

The prospect of Champions League football next season may have appealed to the forward, though Ruben Amorim's side will be playing in the Europa League this term after dropping out of UEFA's premier club competition.

While a storied move home may have interested the romantics, the links became increasingly frustrating for Amorim, who angrily responded to such questions during the World Cup.

"Ronaldo was in Qatar, they had the opportunity to ask him and they didn't. I've been asked 500 times and I already answered," he said after a December 19 win over Braga.

Bayern Munich

Reports suggested Julian Nagelsmann held talks with Ronaldo's agent Jorge Mendes, though Bayern Munich chief executive Oliver Kahn never envisaged the former Real Madrid star moving to Germany.

"We briefly discussed Ronaldo at Bayern and Dortmund probably did too," Kahn told BILD. "We also see the big picture of the Bundesliga.

"Of course, superstars like Ronaldo are an important factor in attracting attention to the league. He is one of the greatest of the last decade. But we quickly dismissed that."

Chelsea

Chelsea were repeatedly named as contenders to snatch the attacker from Premier League rivals United in a bid to appease new owner Todd Boehly's desire for a marquee Blues signing.

Thomas Tuchel was reportedly against the proposal – though his dismissal as Chelsea head coach earlier this year could have provided the catalyst for a change of heart at Stamford Bridge.

But Graham Potter and Boehly opted against a move with a plethora of attacking talent to call upon, while the Blues also appear strong favourites to sign breakout RB Leipzig star Christopher Nkunku.

 

Napoli

Top of Serie A and heading into the World Cup break on the back of an 11-match winning run, Napoli were touted as potential suitors for Ronaldo, who dominated the Italian top flight during three years with Juventus.

Striker Victor Osimhen has been linked with a move to United, but Napoli executives want to focus on the future – despite Ronaldo's remarkable output in the Champions League.

"We wanted to invest in a young team," Napoli sporting director Cristiano Giuntoli told Corriere dello Sport.

He later added to Sky Sport Italia: "We never really talked about Ronaldo. In football you get nowhere with ifs and buts. We are happy with the squad we have, we are confident this is a competitive team."

Atletico Madrid

He couldn't have, could he? After scoring 311 times in LaLiga for Real Madrid, a move to fierce rivals Atletico would have represented one of the most memorable transfers in history.

While some at the Civitas Metropolitano may have flirted with the idea of a seismic move for their archnemesis, coach Diego Simeone was never interested.

He told Tigo Sports: "Ronaldo is an absolute benchmark for Real Madrid and I would not see [Martin] Palermo ever playing for River, just as I wouldn't see [Juan Roman] Riquelme or [Ariel] Ortega playing for Boca. There are situations that are very clear."